brian chemel founder & cto - us department of...

Brian Chemel Founder & CTO

DoE SSL R&D Workshop 28 January 2014

1. The Conventional Wisdom

(and where it’s not quite correct)

CostCLAIM: LEDs are getting so cheap, so quickly, that the revolution is inevitable. REALITY: Balance-of-system costs already dominate. Even if LED cost goes to zero, there’s a lot

of work to do in order to match the initial cost of incumbent technologies.

65%

35%

LEDs Everything Else

70%

30%800lm A19

24,000lm Highbay

Analysis: Sterne Agee, Digital LumensProduct photos: Cree, Digital Lumens

Material Cost Breakdown

EfficacyCLAIM: Ever-increasing LED efficacy will simply overwhelm incumbent technologies. REALITY: Over the past decade, we have already realized most of the possible efficacy gains.

0

50

100

150

200

250

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Theoretical Limit for CW PC (~200lpW)

2005: 45lpW

2013: 164lpW

Source: DoE MYPP 2006-2013

Beware the Asymptotes…

Source: DoE MYPP 2013

$0

$1

$10

$100

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260

LED

Pac

kage

Pric

e ($

/klm

)

Efficacy (lm/W)

Cool Target

Warm Target

2015

2020

2015

Mid 2009

End 2009

Mid 2009End 2009

2020

End 2010End 2010

20112011End 2011End 2011

2013 2013

End 2012End 2012

2010

Log

Scale

Socket SaturationCLAIM: Since LEDs “last forever”, we will see a surge of adoption followed by a contraction. REALITY: Seems unlikely, for a variety of reasons.

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Light

ing R

even

ues

Jevons Paradox

In The Coal Question (1865), William Stanley Jevons maintained that technological efficiency gains

—specifically the more “economical” use of coal in

engines doing mechanical work—actually increased the overall consumption of coal, iron, and other resources, rather than

“saving” them, as many claimed. -Alcott, Blake (July 2005). "Jevons' paradox".

Ecological Economics 54

CLAIM: As lighting gets more efficient, we will use more of it. REALITY: To some extent this is true. But the digital, controllable nature of LEDs provides a

counterbalance.

Source: DoE SSL Energy Savings Report, 2012

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Site E

lectr

icity C

onsum

ption (T

Wh)

Residential Commercial Industrial Outdoor Stationary Baseline

46% savings in 2030

19% savings in 2020

Bear

Base

Bull

Value Chain Collapse

• Upstream commoditization benefits downstream providers

• Access to channel and customers drives growth

• Features (not just photons) build market share

DevicesMaterials Fixtures Systems Services

CLAIM: As with most other semiconductor technology, value will accrue downstream. REALITY: Probably true. So what do we do about it?

PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL ©2013 DIGITAL LUMENS

The Third Wave

Novelty

Energy Efficiency

Features and

Applications

’95 ’00 ’05 ’10 ’15 ’20 ’25 and beyond

Luminaires

Systems

Light-as-a-Service

LED

Mar

ket

Shar

e

LED price/performance plateaus as LED fixtures commoditize

LED price/performance skyrockets, unlocking general illumination market

(the future of lighting is digital)

2. Where we are headed

(intelligent lighting unlocks new markets)

Industrial

Hospitality

Retail

Parking

Office

Residential

Intelligent Lighting will be everywhere

Industrial

Intelligent Industrial Lighting

Energy Savings & Productivity

Intelligent Industrial Lightingto enhance

Office

Intelligent Office Lighting

Comfort & Productivity

Intelligent Office Lightingto enhance

Retail

Intelligent Retail Lighting

Sales & Merchandising

Intelligent Retail Lightingto enhance

Parking

Intelligent Parking Garage Lighting

Safety & Revenue

Intelligent Parking Garage Lightingto enhance

Hospitality

Intelligent Hospitality Lighting

Comfort & Brand

Intelligent Hospitality Lightingto enhance

Residential

Intelligent Residential Lighting

Intelligent Residential Lighting photo source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/mjshearer - Creative Commons license

http://www.flickr.com/photos/mjshearer

Safety & Comfort

Intelligent Residential Lightingto enhance

PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL ©2013 DIGITAL LUMENS

What do all of these stories have in COMMON?

The future of lighting is... DIGITAL

NETWORKED

PERSONALIZED

ENERGY-AWARE

RESPONSIVE

3. How do we get there?

(R&D priorities for intelligent lighting)

Price & Performance

$0.1/klm

$1/klm

$10/klm

$100/klm

0lpW

50lpW

100lpW

150lpW

200lpW

250lpW

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Theoretical Efficacy Limit for CW PC (~200lpW)

Source: DoE MYPP 2006-2013

Full Spectrum Sources400

450

500

550

600

650

700

• Higher theoretical efficacy limit

• Photobiological optimization • People • Plants • Livestock

Source: NIST, Digital Lumens

GND

11V to 14V C3 C4

GND

GND GND

C14820 pFC18

4.7 µF

C11

R7

R9

1k

C12

C13

1000 pF

100 nH

1k

C170.047 µF

0.047 µF

C20

R545.3k

R210R

C10

1 F

R65.9k

C160.01 µF

C154.7 µF

Coilcraft, SER2013-362ML

R1019.6k R11

20k R121.5R

D4BAT54

GND

GNDGND

GND

GND

GND

R3

L1

Q1

Q2

Vishay, SI7892BDP

Vishay, SI7892BDP

75k

U1

GND

GNDGNDGND GND

GND

C1

GND

C2

GND GND

C6 C8

GND

330 nH

L2 Sanyo, 35SVPD47M

TDK, C3216X7RIE475TDK C3216X5RIC106

TDK C3216X5RIC106 TDK, C3216X7RIE475TDK, C3216X7RIE475

IR, 42CTQ030SPulse, PA1005.100NL

L3

R14 C19

NINI D1

11

12

2

4R110k

GND

GND

GND

TDK, C3216X7RIE475

Coilcraft, DO1813-331

470 pF

VIN

UVLO

REF

RT1

RT2

RES

SS

PGN

D

AGN

D

VCC

OUTA

OUTB

RAMP

CS

COMP

FB

Digital Power Topologies

• Controllability

• Size

• Reliability

• Efficiency

• Manufacturability

Deep System Integration• Personalization

• Making data actionable

• Closing the loop

Product photos: Apple, Nest Labs, Philips

Email: [email protected] : @bchemel

Thank You!

brian chemel founder & cto - us department of...

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