Attribution AnalysisData Driven Model

SMX 2014Yehoshaphat Schellekens

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Where to credit the sale???

Click stream of conversions

among different segments

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Introduction

Why Attribution?

• “I only advertise on search, why do I need to investigate attribution?”

• “What are the actionable insights you can do with attribution analysis?”

• “what does an attribution analysis/model look like?”

• “I’m not a mathematical person, how can I still use attribution?“ (Visualization)

• “In which cases could attribution save me money?”

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Possible Segments For Attribution

Possible for SEM, SEO & content but also for:

• In-channel SEM: Brand vs. non-brand

• Day of week segments (people search on weekends and buy during the beginning of the week)

• Different type of Keywords (Some keywords tend to lead to others)

• Different devices (if possible)

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Attribution for Re-pricing Segments

• In most cases:• ~ 5%-15% difference in attributed sales compared to

last click sales• More granularity = more attribution

32%

45%

23%

Sales (Using Last click)

BrandNon BrandSEO

38%39%

23%

Sales (Using attribution Model)

BrandNon BrandSEO

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Media Re-pricing• Conventional wisdom: Non Brand drives brand

• But not alwaysAttributed CPS: lower than last

click CPS

Cost Per Sale

MSN syndication Brand

Google syndication Brand

MSN Brand

Google Brand

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Re-pricing – Tier 2 publishers• Tier 2 publishers typically have more

attribution with Google/Bing/Yahoo

• Example :

Ozone Media Quantcast Casale Media Accordant Media

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20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Last click modelAttribution resultsSale Count

Could be up to 50% difference!

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Visualization: click count vs. CR

Highest difference in Conversion Rate -> in Second click

Conversion Rate

Click Count

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Visualization:Flow from click 1 to click 2.

Different segments

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Visualization : Click Path

Hour of day

Each blue line: full path of a searcher who clicked six times

In this account, searchers who started in the same hour kept on searching in that hour

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Researchers VS. Transactional

• Some segments are In a state of purchasing while others are conduction research

• Find segments that click differently!

Dark bars: faster deciders

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Conclusions• Evaluate as many segments as possible

• Important Visualization:– Click count vs. sale count & click count vs. CR (sales/clicks)– Sankey plot (flow of clicks)

• Try to detect:– Searchers who need further information – Searchers who want to get the product now.

• Tracking:– Important to have tracking system, for visitors & all click to sale data, such as:

• DSMM/ DS3/ other click tracking platforms

• Save money, mainly in the following cases:– +10%/-10% of performance change, will make a big difference.– Large proportion of Tier 2 publishers.