brief presentation vessel delay risk mitigation

Programa de Atualização Profissional

Vessel Delay Risk Mitigation

methodology summary

by Gláucio Bastos, M.B.A., Ch.E.


abstract

target: by evaluating the possibility of delays to meet fleet timelines and its impact on operating costs, mitigation measures are proposed and compared as to their effectiveness, cost and return


need

one of the main parameters for measuring the performance of the shipping company is deadlines meeting

thus a key management issue is: to what extent the company must bear the additional costs for reliability improving

through efficient tools for analysis of delays possibilities and its prevention feasibility, the shipping company is able to assess the value of time to determine the scope for improving their service reliability for a fair price which customers are willing to pay


issue description

during a journey can occur events such as: bad weather condition faced by the vessel, congestion and lack of infrastructure in ports of call, mechanical breakdowns, etc.

cause significant delays and consequently failed in preliminary schedule meeting which has affected its robustness and with it the shipping company may suffer revenue losses

then should be explored all alternative schedules that lead to quality

schedule robustness is an indicator of the performance of the service provided by the shipping company


issue description a robust design gives the company the ability to handle

disturbances during operations and may be required operational deviations reflecting changes from the original schedule

an example is the planned further increase in speed for a gain in travel time

other generic strategies that can be mapped to the generation of more robust schedules: increase in the rate of cargo handling to face delays in

time port canceling a port of route searching for time saving

regarding next scales


issue description

the implementation of a strategy to mitigate the delay has its cost, additional to that planned for the route

some more knots on speed cause a marked shift in the curve of fuel consumption

canceling a range of ports for saving time greatly affects the profit, penalized by no delivery of the cargo or no use of scheduled services at the port besides the negative reflection in attractiveness for new customers due to the low quality of service provided by business


issue description

strategies to attack the causes of the delay should be carefully examined to assess their impact on the tangible and intangible costs of fleet

should be chosen for implementation those ones that bring the greatest operational, economic and commercial benefits to the company's activities


related data

the problem is worked on the same data presented for the fleet whose programming was previously optimized


solution

for each cargo is constructed a decision tree considering as goal the arriving at destination port within the contracted time window

to each variable the loading port time and the travel is added a constant - one to port time and one to travel - as safe limits before considering the occurrence of a delay

causes of risk are: loading port time and travel time risk events: delays at the loading port and the journey


solution

risk symptoms: measurements of the delays at the loading port and the journey

performance measures: fee charged by the port for delay cost of the speed increase: cost of additional fuel spent

by accelerating gross profit: freight revenue less operating costs in ports

and in travel cost of missing a loading port and / or unloading port:

fee charged by the customer plus the marketing factor cost (depending on the port) plus the cost of cargo rolling less the economy by port default (operating costs not incurred at the port)


solution

mitigation measures, alternatives to each other, are:

by decision making: nominal speed increasing omission of the loading or unloading port

by decision rule included in planning: omission of the unloading port nominal speed increasing


solution

actions taken by decision depend on the intuition of the fleet manager about when to intervene in the journey of the ship, so that the benefits are felt in subsequent scales

automated measures are adopted by the planning method when the delay determined in the previous step reaches a given significance level: omitting the unloading port happens when the vessel's

arrival at the destination is imminent but with an unacceptable level of delay

the speed increase occurs when the loading port exit occurs at an unacceptable delay level, kept unloading at the port of destination


resultsCargo # Init_sched Sh_sp_incr Omit_ld_pt Omit_ud_pt Omit_ud_pt_ud_d_rl Sh_sp_inc_ud_d_rl

10 649.690 650.690 -556.675 464.936 436.181 649.69014 492.065 493.065 -718.344 244.801 216.735 492.06515 372.016 373.016 -871.152 109.467 70.304 372.01616 568.636 569.635 -491.586 406.923 377.801 568.63622 572.687 573.686 -660.320 350.095 318.327 572.68724 609.674 728.354 -543.862 454.440 401.373 609.67425 274.379 415.538 -678.218 96.521 61.930 274.37927 286.179 287.179 -352.176 181.453 150.544 286.17929 273.726 274.726 -360.176 167.566 138.092 273.7263 240.111 241.111 -383.338 130.124 97.220 240.11131 348.300 349.300 -871.152 84.270 46.588 348.30032 1.079.110 1.080.111 -1.382.176 568.702 541.412 1.079.11042 235.777 236.776 -375.404 127.453 95.982 235.77746 955.367 956.367 -1.346.392 459.754 431.784 955.3675 764.786 765.786 -938.598 434.357 400.462 764.786

-1.500.000

-1.000.000

-500.000

0

500.000

1.000.000

1.500.000

1014

1516

2224

2527

293

3132

4246

5

Net income - $

Cargo #

Init_sched

Sh_sp_incr

Omit_ld_pt

Omit_ud_pt

Omit_ud_pt_ud_d_rl

Sh_sp_inc_ud_d_rl

Cargo shipping delay risk mitigation scenarios


results results should be considered only in terms of comparison

between the mitigation measures since it is due to gains, additional charges and delay limits triggers that are specific for each measure which although in such example can cancel each other but under other data can be significant

the measure that boasts for all cargoes the biggest gain in net gross profit is the nominal speed increase by decision making

nominal speed increase by automatic planning decision rule showed minimal gains above the original solution, considering that at this example it is triggered just in case of some delay level is reached in loading port which has a low occurrence probability


results

gains generated by the discharging port omission by decision making are below those of the original solution because, although in this case the trip to the intended destination is canceled, the gains are outweighed by the penalties generated by port omission

gains generated by the discharging port omission by automatic planning decision rule are still slightly below those of the previous measure because in that case the trip is not canceled (then your costs are incurred) but only the port unloading


results

the worst results are those for the loading port omission because, although in this case the trip is canceled also, loading and unloading are also canceled and are thus incurred the penalties generated by 02 ports omission

however, higher the cost penalty cost function greater the robustness and planning costs borne by the company

next figure shows time gains for each cargo on winning strategy - nominal speed increase by decision making - compared to the original schedule


resultss

Initial schedule (hrs) - time from start Sh spd incr mit strat (hrs) - time from startCargo # Lv_ld_pt Ar_ul_pt Lv_ul_pt Ld_pt_tm Ld_pt_del Voy_tm Voy_del Ud_pt_tm Ul_pt_del Cargo # Lv_ld_pt Ar_ul_pt Lv_ul_pt

10 21,06596 432,806 453,8719 18,61596 2,45 408,16 3,58 18,61596 2,45 10 21,06596 322,2424 343,308414 27,32404 285,6448 311,0627 24,87404 2,45 254,7407 3,58 22,96787 2,45 14 27,32404 230,4417 255,859615 29,80141 441,5414 471,3428 27,35141 2,45 408,16 3,58 27,35141 2,45 15 29,80141 330,9779 360,779316 18,32396 463,0344 482,5145 15,87396 2,45 441,1304 3,58 17,03012 2,45 16 18,32396 318,0298 337,5122 25,71725 344,0665 368,0115 23,26725 2,45 314,7692 3,58 21,49498 2,45 22 25,71725 267,3643 291,309324 20,71004 374,3174 395,0275 18,26004 2,45 350,0274 3,58 18,26004 2,45 24 20,71004 321,8865 342,596625 24,66436 404,6147 427,7241 22,21436 2,45 376,3704 3,58 20,65941 2,45 25 24,66436 324,3702 347,479627 14,74935 331,0986 346,7062 12,29935 2,45 312,7692 3,58 13,15763 2,45 27 14,74935 254,867 270,474629 14,74935 316,0986 331,7062 12,29935 2,45 297,7692 3,58 13,15763 2,45 29 14,74935 243,3964 259,0043 17,17234 347,1333 363,2454 14,72234 2,45 326,381 3,58 13,66215 2,45 3 17,17234 220,29 236,402131 29,80141 425,7014 455,5028 27,35141 2,45 392,32 3,58 27,35141 2,45 31 29,80141 319,3308 349,132232 47,44014 314,2344 358,0921 44,99014 2,45 263,2143 3,58 41,40763 2,45 32 47,44014 264,9107 308,768442 16,93193 332,2392 348,131 14,48193 2,45 311,7273 3,58 13,44177 2,45 42 16,93193 220,0496 235,941346 46,35581 314,3204 357,1841 43,90581 2,45 264,3846 3,58 40,41365 2,45 46 46,35581 249,4735 292,33715 31,6749 311,6835 343,3584 29,2249 2,45 276,4286 3,58 29,2249 2,45 5 31,6749 260,0278 291,7027

Cargo # 10 14 15 16 22 24 25 27 29 3 31 32 42 46 5

Ship # 1 12 3 11 2 7 5 13 13 9 3 6 8 4 10Load port depart 21 27 30 18 26 21 25 15 15 17 30 47 17 46 32Interm load pt arrive 21 27 72 18 26 21 25 49 Cg27 17 Cg15 47 17 46 32Interm load pt depart 21 27 102 18 26 21 25 64 17 47 17 46 32Unload port arrive 433 286 498 463 344 374 405 365 316 347 426 314 332 314 312Unload port depart 454 311 558 483 368 395 428 397 332 363 456 358 348 357 343

442 331471 347

10 10 10

10

10

1 1 1

1

1

12 12 12

12

12

3

3

3

3

3

11 11 11

11

11

2 2 2

2

2

7 7 7

7

7

5 5 5

5

5

13

13

13

13

13

9 9 9

9

9

6 6 6

6

6

8 8 8

8

8

4 4 4

4

4

Mit 1 Mit 1 Mit 1

Mit 1

Mit 1

Mit 12 Mit 12 Mit 12

Mit 12

Mit 12

Mit 3

Mit 3

Mit 3

Mit 3

Mit 3


Mit 11

Mit 11

Mit 2 Mit 2 Mit 2

Mit 2

Mit 2

Mit 7 Mit 7 Mit 7

Mit 7

Mit 7

Mit 5 Mit 5 Mit 5

Mit 5

Mit 5

Mit 13

Mit 13

Mit 13

Mit 13

Mit 13

Mit 9 Mit 9 Mit 9

Mit 9

Mit 9

Mit 6 Mit 6 Mit 6

Mit 6

Mit 6

Mit 8 Mit 8 Mit 8

Mit 8

Mit 8

Mit 4 Mit 4 Mit 4

Mit 4

Mit 4


Mit 10

Mit 10

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Load port depart Interm load pt arrive Interm load pt depart Unload port arrive Unload port depart

hrs

10112311275139684Mit 1Mit 12Mit 3Mit 11Mit 2Mit 7Mit 5Mit 13Mit 9Mit 6Mit 8Mit 4Mit 10

Ship #

Time run for each ship service comparing Initial Schedule with Ship Speed Increase Mitigation Strategy Schedule