britt vision dairy in 2029 cdcb mtg 02 2019 · title: microsoft powerpoint - britt vision dairy in...
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Jack H Britt <> Council of Dairy Cattle Breeding <> February 25, 2019Expert Forecasters: Mike Hutjens, IL; Gordie Jones, WI; Jeff Stevenson, KS; Pam Ruegg, MI; Chad Dechow, PA; George Seidel, CO;
Bob Cushman, NB; Tony McNeel, MI; Louise Holt, VT; Hilary Dobson, UK; Martin Sheldon, UK; Patrice Humblot; SE
1
The Past. Looking back to KY in 1950’s
Born February 1954Pictured at 10 yr. of age8y 1m: 16,990M 626F
Nature. April 25, 1953 (Structure of DNA)Nature. April 25, 1953 (Structure of DNA)1
2
3
Peters, Christian J., Jamie Picardy, Amelia F. Darrouzet-Nardi, Jennifer L. Wilkins, Timothy S. Griffin, Gary W. Fick. 2016. Carrying capacity of U.S. agricultural land: Ten diet scenarios. Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene • 4: 000116 • doi: 10.12952/journal.elementa.000116
USA findings: Dairy feeds most people from USA land base
10.00
9.00
8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
Carr
ying
Cap
acity
(108
pers
ons)
Vers
ions
of C
urre
nt D
iets
Dairy
0.49 0.57 0.64 0.71 0.78 0.85 0.92Proportion of cropland available for cultivated cropping
Egg
Vegan
1
2
3
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
Asia Africa Europe Latin Amer.& Carib.
N. Amer. Oceania
Popu
latio
n (1
,000
peo
ple) 2017 2027 2037 2047 2057 2067
World view: Growth of population will be in Africa and Asia
10.4 Billion People
93% of growth willbe in Asia and Africa,82% in Africa alone
Britt et al. 2018. J. Dairy Sc. 101 (5): 3722-3741. Data source: FAOSTAT 2017.
ExportMarkets
1
23
652,524,057,600
958,125,000,000
1,249,500,000,000
2017 @ FAO, 87 kg
2067 @ EAT-Lancet, 91 kg
2067 @ FAO, 119 kg
Kg of milk needed globally
Estimated Global Milk Consumption in 2017 and 2067, kg
100%
147%
191%
World view: Demand for dairy will be strong
1
2
525,315,906
262,657,953
249,500,799
2017 Average
2X of 2017 Average
1.25% increase/yr
Aver
age
Yiel
d Pe
r Cow
in 2
067
Dairy Cows Needed in 2067 withDifferent Milk Yield Averages
World view: How many dairy cows to meet demand
1
1
Yield range, kg <> No. cows
World view: 26 countries have 75% of dairy cows in world today50
,905
,190
17,0
60,1
17
13,1
02,0
00
12,0
14,6
21
11,9
00,0
00
9,34
6,00
0
7,91
9,76
5
7,38
5,00
0
7,04
3,56
9
6,75
3,09
6
6,50
0,00
0
6,00
0,00
0
5,96
9,04
6
5,04
3,81
3
5,01
6,83
8
4,19
9,01
0
4,08
3,14
1
4,02
5,31
6
3,63
0,00
0
3,41
1,42
9
3,36
4,72
5
2,50
6,33
9
2,33
6,75
3
2,22
3,69
1
2,15
4,34
5
2,08
9,50
0
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
Indi
a
Braz
il
Paki
stan
Chin
a
Ethi
opia
U S
A
Suda
n
Sout
h Su
dan
Russ
ia
Tanz
ania
Colo
mbi
a
Keny
a
Turk
ey N Z
Uzb
ekis
tan
Ger
man
y
Uga
nda
Bang
lade
sh
Fran
ce
Afgh
anis
tan
Arge
ntin
a
Mex
ico
Kaza
khst
an
Nig
eria
Pola
nd
Ukr
aine
Num
ber o
f Dai
ry C
ows 4,200 to 10,500 kg <> 36,012,576 cows
1,900 to 3,200 kg <> 45,762,100 cows500 to 1,700 kg <> 79,918,619 cows200 to 500 kg <> 44,290,009 cows
FAOSTAT 2017
FAO estimates 274 million total dairy cows in 2017
1
10,4
57
1,64
3
1,96
3
7,78
0
4,38
9
2,56
1
6,72
2
4,23
7
3,14
3
1,23
0
8,04
2
8,58
7
6,35
7
4,69
5
6,35
4
4,92
0
3,00
1
2,00
3
5,78
8
8,75
7
10,4
57
3,01
0
2,77
9
3,03
7
3,14
4
3,07
5
3,20
2
3,25
0
3,24
4
3,03
8
3,11
1
3,18
0
3,23
1
3,25
8
3,29
8
3,32
3
3,31
5
3,27
1
3,29
6
3,33
0
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
U S
A
Indi
a
Braz
il
Ger
m…
Russ
ia…
Chin
a
Fran
ce
New
…
Turk
ey
Paki
st…
U K
Net
he…
Pola
nd
Mex
ico
Italy
Ukr
aine
Arge
n…
Uzb
ek…
Aust
ra…
Cana
da
Milk
yie
ld, k
g/an
imal
/yea
r
kg/an Cum Avgkg/an
FAOSTAT 2017
World Avg is2,379 kg/cow
World view: 20 countries produce 75% of cow’s milk
1
2
Current view: Cow’s milk is mostly consumed in non-fluid forms in the USA.
23% vs 77%
Milk vs Other dairy56 billion lbs.
• Caseins and other proteins: A1, A2, better cheese yields, etc.• Fatty acids: Beneficial to health• SCC: 200,00 or lower• Processing: Best for ultrafiltration, UHT, aseptic packaging• New Products: USA seems to be lagging
159 billion lbs.
1
2
100%
146%
1.4%
2.6%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
USA Milk Supply and Percentage from Imports Since 1995 (100%)
TotalSupply
Import%of Supply
USDA estimated components of USA milk supply on a milk fat basis are 3.7% fat solids, 8.8% skim solids.
USA milk supply: Milk supply growth exceeds population growth.
USPopulation
up 22%
1
-11.700
0.32
3
-0.2
46-0
.568
-12.00
-10.00
-8.00
-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
Milk
Fat
Prot
Lact
Billion Pounds
Change in Pounds of Milk and Components Marketed with 4.2% F and 3.2% P
~156,700 semi tanker loads of milk
USA markets: Balancing volume and components with % instead of pounds
Calculations by Jack Britt, January 20191
2
View ahead: Milk prices in USA will continue to be VOLATILE!
$14.00
$16.00
$18.00
$20.00
$22.00
$24.00
$26.00
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
Inflation Adjusted Mailbox Prices USA
Original data: Hoard’s Dairyman April 25, 2018, page 264.
60% below
40% above1
Future: Shareholders and politicians focus on short-term results
WSJ12/4/2018
< 0.5 acres/person
>0.75 acres/person
Arable Landper
Person (acres)
Longer Longer growing season
Future: Population, land for food production and climate change.
Longer Longer growing season
Longer Longer growing season
82% of people81% of food
N. hemisphere
Equator
1 3
2
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature-projections
B1
A2
A1b
Tem
pera
ture
cha
nge
from
197
1-19
99 a
vera
ge (
C)
0
2
4
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
0
2
4
6
8
Future: Adapting to climate change on dairy farms
Cooling Cows
Efficient Irrigation
Healthy Roots
1
2
Tem
pera
ture
cha
nge
from
197
1-19
99 a
vera
ge (
F) 34
USA future climate examples: https://fitzlab.shinyapps.io/cityapp/
Edmonton ABwill feel like
St. Cloud MN
Fresno CA will feel likeTijuana MX
Gainesville, FLwill feel like
Ciudad Victoria MX
Dalhart TXwill feel likePresido TX
Quebec City, QCwill feel like
Southgate MI
Plattsburgh NYwill feel like
Noblesville IN
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Looking ahead: Understanding the dairy herd as a SUPERORGANISM
Gene Cell Organ Animal
We cannot learn about herds by studying these: 1
2
13 production units (herds)• Study practices, trends, long-term• Use sensors, surveys, samples• Assess micro- and macro-environments• What characterizes “good management”?• Do herds behave as superorganisms?
Herds in Close Proximity
8.5 mi5.
9 m
i
1
ReliableRepeatablePrecision-AccuracyLess labor
Integrated sensors
Sensors, automation, robotics, artificial intelligence
• Soils• Crops• Silo/bales• Lagoon• Natural areas• Barns• Milking center• Personnel• Equipment• Commodities• Robots• Air• Waterways• Roads• Vehicles
Data in the cloud & Blockchain
1
Disruptive: Open source research and dissemination(Why do we need journals when our base is declining?)
Blockchain
Cloud Computing
On-cow Sensors
Parlor Sensors
Data CentersDairy Research Ctrs.
Dairy FarmersUSDA ARS Scientists
Dairy Scientists
Dairy Processors
1
Looking ahead. Genetics of cows of the future
Gene based, not breed based
Efficient, smaller environmental
footprint
Healthier Proprietary genes licensed
in embryos
Gene editing to move genes within
& among breeds
Includes their
microbiome1
2
http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/maps/gallery/search/6?facets=theme:climate
1 1
22
2
2
2
33
2
44
2
3
3
1234
Genetics of the future: Four global dairy cattle lines
1
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Fat%Protein%Lactose%
ME milkME
ME proteinDry matter intake
BCSNet income
Energy balanceDays to 1st CLLifetime milk
Lifetime fatAge first calvingLifetime protein
Productive lifePersistency of yield
SCC averageIncidence, mastitis
First calving intervalDays to 1st AIIncidence, RP
Incidence, ketosisIncidence, metritis
Genetic Epigenetic
Bennet Cassell, Using Heritability for Genetic Improvement https://pubs.ext.vt.edu/404/404-084/404-084.html
Genetics of the future: Focus shifts to understanding “epigenetics”
19% 81%
(broadly defined)
Environmental Action Observed Responseweeks, months, years
Retrospective analyses of Big Dataand temporal relationships
(RNAs, Methylation, Histone Acetylation)
12
Sensors and robotics: Artificial Intelligence in dairy management
StarterFeeder
MilkFeeder
RFIDEartag
2
1
Mechanisms: How does weight loss affect fertility of a cow’s eggs?
Maintained = 62% CR
Lost = 25% CR
Bovine Practitioner 24: 39-43, 1992.
Ult
ras
ou
nd
siz
e
Days Before or After Calving
“Britt Hypothesis” Here’s what observed.
Here’s a diagram of our hypothesis.
Prim
ordi
al p
ool
Act
iva
ted
oo
cyt
e fr
om
ov
aria
n r
ese
rve
+80-21 +35 +75+21Weight loss Environment
Ovu
lati
on
of
eg
g
101 Days
Microscopic size
1
2
25%
38%
84%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Lost Maintained Gained
Preg
nanc
y ra
te p
er ti
med
AI (
%)
Body Condition Change During 3 Weeks Postpartum
789 cows
675 cows
423 cows
The Britt Hypothesis: 22 years later…
Carvalho et al, J Dairy Science 97:3666-3683, 2014
Pregnancy Rates (%)to Timed AI in Holstein cows
1
M. Zachut and U. Moallem. 2017. J. Dairy Sci. 100 (4) 3143–3154
Future: Do cows have to lose weight to have high yields?
1 2
N.-T. Ha et al. 2017 J. Dairy Sci. 100 (5) 3742–3753.
Future: Will some bulls produce daughters that are more robust?
1
Resilience: Example of genetic resilience through variation in a trait.
Tom V. L. Berghof*, Marieke Poppe and Han A. Mulder. 2019.Opportunities to Improve Resilience in Animal Breeding ProgramsFrontiers in Genetics 14 January 2019 doi: 10.3389/fgene.2018.00692
1
Source: https://www.the-scientist.com/?articles.view/articleNo/47256/title/From-Stem-Cell-to-Oocyte-In-a-Dish/
O. Hikabe et al. 2016. Reconstitution in vitro of the entire cycle of the mouse female germ line. Nature 539: 299–303
Culture stem cellswith special growthmodifiers
BovineBlastocyst
StemCells
Harvest and cultureInner Cell Mass cells withgrowth factors
Oogonia &Spermatogonia
Culture oogonia and spermatogoniawith meiotic factors
“Oocytes” &“Spermatozoa”
FertilizedOocytes
IVM &IVF
Culture &scan genomeof ICM cell
One Generation
PerMonth
Creating line: Breeding in the petri dish?
3-D Printing? Wow!
1
Males only fed high sugar for short period
Males mated with normal-fed females
Reprogramming of embryonic genome
Male offspring have increased obesity:
Ost, A. et al (2014). Paternal Diet Defines Offspring Chromatin State and Intergenerational Obesity. Cell 159(6): 1352–1364.
PreciseNutrition
DNARegulators
Stem CellTransfers
Environ-mentalControl
Many epigenetic strategies
Managing epigenome: Feed bulls differently in the future to affect progeny?
1
2
Looking ahead: Managing the microbiome to benefit crops and cows.
TherapeuticAgronomic Environmental Cow Specific
1
Reaching for the FutureEnvision It and Create It
Thank You for this Opportunity