Fostering employment through territorial developmentBrussels Development Briefing no. 48

“Strengthening rural livelihoods in the face of rapid urbanisation in Africa”

Denis Pesche, CIRAD2Oth March, 2017

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A demographic challenge…

Population increase among world regions and countries: past and future

In the next 40 years: + 1.35 B people in SSAand + 200 M in North Africa

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A remaining importance of rural population

• With the exception of North Africa, South Africa and several countries in the Gulf of Guinea: 60% of the population is rural

• The majority of SSA population will remain rural till the mid- 2040s

• Nearly 1 B rural residents in 2050 (+350 M)

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A common employment challenge

• Yearly youth cohort = 23 M today, 33 M in 2030

• In the next 15 years, 440 M youth will enter the “labor market”• Nigeria (70 M)• Ethiopia (40 M)• Egypt (28 M)

• Most of them will live in rural areas

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Youth face a very limited economic diversification…

• SSA’s urbanization occurred without industrialization

• Consequences are:– The remaining role of

agriculture, extractive industries and informal services in GDP

– The importance of informal employment (self-employment and farming)

An important factor: the densification of links between towns and the countryside

The African equation

• African countries face the challenges of an incipient economic and an incomplete demographic transition

• These two historical challenges are faced in today’s world characterized by globalization and climate change

• What can be the adequate and effective answers knowing that there will not be duplication of past “transformation pathways”

• How to deal with poorly diversified economic structures and a growing labor force?

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THE AFRICAN EQUATION AT LOCAL LEVEL : MALI AND SENEGAL

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• 62 504 km2

• 2,8 millions people• total fertility rate 6,6 (2010)

• 3 urban towns (Ségou, Niono, San)• A large irrigated system: Office du

Niger

Ségou, Mali

Ségou, Mali

2,763 millions

4,583 millions

The demographic challengeTFR: 6,6 in 2010, 4,6 in 2035

1,502 millions

1993 2015 203520th March, 2017

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Ségou, Mali

1987

2009

Ségou, Mali

The employment challenge38 000 new workers in 2015 64 000 in 2035More than 1 million in 20 years

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Ségou, Mali

1987 2009

Failure of industrialization, development of services and return to agriculture (2011; conflict)

Job creation projections in Ségou

• 1,000,000 jobs to be created between now and 2035• In 2012, 84% of jobs were in the primary sector

(agriculture, livestock, forestry)• What will the sources of employment be in 2035?

– In 2012, there were close to 85,000 non-agricultural jobs – In 2035 :

• Agricultural production • Agri-activities (downstream, upstream)• Rural salaried workforce• Others?…

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Senegal river delta

• Agribusiness is dynamic and has recently accelerated

• What is the potential for job creation according to the agricultural models?

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WAF

Senhuile

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Senhuile• Senegalese and Italian capital

has been invested in 2010 and then in 2012

• 26,000 and then 10,000 ha have been allocated, 1150 cultivated in 2016 (maize, rice, soya)

• High degree of mechanisation• Salaried workforce of 180 (25

DK, 70 security…)• Uncertain future (areas,

crops, jobs…)

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WAF

• Created in 2011 – UK/RSA capital• Modest size and return (200 ha + 200 ha/RSE)• Market gardening for export (onions, radishes)• Model firmly based on local employment• A success story, PDIDAS

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WAF

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CSS SCL SOCAS GDS CASL WAF STS Temey Agro Ferlo Gomme

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

Salariés temporaires

Salariés permanents

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Jéré

my

Bour

goin

, 201

7, C

IRAD

/ISR

A

Senhuile : mechanised system, 0.13 jobs/ha (including 45% security…)

Family farms average: 0.78 permanent jobs and 2.53 temporary jobs per ha. 13,000 farms (Dagana department).

Toward a new Rural (Territorial) Development paradigm… 1. Governance2. Multisectorial approaches3. Infrastructures4. Urban/rural linkages5. Inclusive policies6. Gender7. Demographic driver8. Sustainability

(based on OCDE, 2016)

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Thank you for your attention

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