bsef 2013 macroeconomy oleg ustenko
TRANSCRIPT
T U R N I N G T R A N S I T I O N I N T O P R O S P E R I T Y
New economic realities: a quest for sustainable sources of economic
development of the Black Sea regionOleg Ustenko
Executive Director, The Bleyzer Foundation
October 24-25, 2013, CrimeaІV INTERNATIONAL BLACK SEA ECONOMIC FORUM
T U R N I N G T R A N S I T I O N I N T O P R O S P E R I T Y
a quest for sustainable development…
• Export-led recovery remains unimpressive on Eurozone weaknesses and a slower growth in Russia.
• Tighter access to external borrowing limits the growth of investment and consumer spending, especially in smaller countries.
• Consumer led recovery looks particularly shaky in Ukraine on concerns of weak public finances, slowing exports and surging external funding needs.
• Credit growth to private sector is sluggish, especially in Ukraine, Romania and Bulgaria.
• A shift toward investment-based growth is not happening on poor investment climate, especially in Russia and Ukraine.
• Higher private domestic and foreign investments are essential to unlock potential sources of economic growth in energy, infrastructure, transportation and agriculture.
T U R N I N G T R A N S I T I O N I N T O P R O S P E R I T Y
Source: IMF
Economic Growth% annual change
T U R N I N G T R A N S I T I O N I N T O P R O S P E R I T Y
Source: IMF
Per capita GDPbased on PPP, thousand current international dollars
T U R N I N G T R A N S I T I O N I N T O P R O S P E R I T Y
Source: State Statistics Committee of Ukraine
Sources of Economic Growthcontributions to GDP growth, percentage points
UKRAINE
T U R N I N G T R A N S I T I O N I N T O P R O S P E R I T Y
Source: World Bank
Sources of Economic Growthcontributions to GDP growth, percentage points
RUSSIA
T U R N I N G T R A N S I T I O N I N T O P R O S P E R I T Y
Source: World Bank, OECD
Sources of Economic Growthcontributions to GDP growth, percentage points
TURKEY
T U R N I N G T R A N S I T I O N I N T O P R O S P E R I T Y
Source: World Bank, OECD
Sources of Economic Growthcontributions to GDP growth, percentage points
BULGARIA
T U R N I N G T R A N S I T I O N I N T O P R O S P E R I T Y
Source: World Bank, OECD
Sources of Economic Growthcontributions to GDP growth, percentage points
ROMANIA
T U R N I N G T R A N S I T I O N I N T O P R O S P E R I T Y
Source: World Bank, Asian Development Bank, TBF
Sources of Economic Growthcontributions to GDP growth, percentage points
GEORGIA
T U R N I N G T R A N S I T I O N I N T O P R O S P E R I T Y
Source: IMF, World Bank
The End of The Credit Boomcredit to private sector, % annual change
T U R N I N G T R A N S I T I O N I N T O P R O S P E R I T Y
Source: IMF
Macroeconomic vulnerabilitiesconsumer prices, % annual change
T U R N I N G T R A N S I T I O N I N T O P R O S P E R I T Y
Source: IMF
Macroeconomic vulnerabilitiescurrent account, % of GDP
T U R N I N G T R A N S I T I O N I N T O P R O S P E R I T Y
Source: IMF
Macroeconomic vulnerabilitiesgeneral government revenue minus expenditure, % of GDP
T U R N I N G T R A N S I T I O N I N T O P R O S P E R I T Y
Source: IMF
Macroeconomic vulnerabilitiesgross government debt, % of GDP
T U R N I N G T R A N S I T I O N I N T O P R O S P E R I T Y
Source: Deutsche Bank AG
Macroeconomic vulnerabilitiesCredit Default Swaps, percentage points
T U R N I N G T R A N S I T I O N I N T O P R O S P E R I T Y
Source: World Bank, WEF, Transparency International, The Heritage Foundation
Investment Climate
Index of Economic Freedom
Ease of doing business rank
Global Competitiveness
Index
Government effectiveness, percentile rank
(higher number - better
performance)Corruption
Perception Index