bt monthly markets chart pack – august 2008 an overview of movements in global financial markets

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BT Monthly Markets Chart Pack – August 2008 An overview of movements in global financial markets

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Page 1: BT Monthly Markets Chart Pack – August 2008 An overview of movements in global financial markets

BT Monthly Markets Chart Pack – August 2008

An overview of movements in global financial markets

Page 2: BT Monthly Markets Chart Pack – August 2008 An overview of movements in global financial markets

2

Global share markets mixed in August...

Global share markets posted mixed returns in August as a number of large US financial institutions announced further write-downs related to the global ‘credit crunch’, sending banking and other financial stocks lower and offsetting another big fall in oil prices.

The Australian share market ended its run of two successive monthly falls in August, with the S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index returning a strong +4.1% thanks mainly to rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the RBA. The Australian market is now down 21.9% since its record highs back in November last year and remains 16.5% lower so far in 2008.

Page 3: BT Monthly Markets Chart Pack – August 2008 An overview of movements in global financial markets

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Global shares measured by the MSCI World ex-Australia (net dividends) Index in A$.Source: BT Financial Group, MSCI

Impact of major market events on global shares since 1986

…but continue to perform well over the long-term, despite some major market events

700

1,200

1,700

2,200

2,700

3,200

3,700

4,200

4,700

5,200

5,700

6,200

Aug-86 Aug-88 Aug-90 Aug-92 Aug-94 Aug-96 Aug-98 Aug-00 Aug-02 Aug-04 Aug-06 Aug-08

Jan 91Gulf War

Feb 94Bond Market Crash

Aug 97Asian Currency Crisis

Jul 98Russian Bond Crisis

Jul 01Tech Wreck

Sep 01Attack on Twin Towers

Jun 07US Sub-prime Crisis

Oct 87Wall Streetcrash

Nov 89Fall of the Berlin Wall Mar 03

Troops enter Iraq

Page 4: BT Monthly Markets Chart Pack – August 2008 An overview of movements in global financial markets

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Source: BT Financial Group, Premium Data

S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index – 2008

The Australian share market closed August 4.1% higher

31,000

32,000

33,000

34,000

35,000

36,000

37,000

38,000

39,000

40,000

41,000

31/12/2007 29/02/2008 30/04/2008 30/06/2008 31/08/2008

Page 5: BT Monthly Markets Chart Pack – August 2008 An overview of movements in global financial markets

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Key Australian economic news – August

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut interest rates for the first time in over six years at its early September board meeting, taking the official cash rate from 7.25% to 7.00%. If the Australian economy continues to slow as expected, then we may yet see further rate cuts by the end of this year.

The Australian economy added 53,700 new jobs in July after a gain of 19,700 in the previous month. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3%.

The Westpac/Melbourne Institute’s consumer sentiment survey rebounded in August to be 9.1% higher for the month. However, sentiment remains down 22.4% on this time last year.

Australia’s current account deficit was $1.1 billion wider than the market had expected in the June quarter, coming in at $12.8 billion. It was, however, significantly lower than the $19.8 billion recorded in the March quarter.

Source: BT Financial Group

Page 6: BT Monthly Markets Chart Pack – August 2008 An overview of movements in global financial markets

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The Australian dollar fell again in August

The Australian dollar (A$) continued its slide against the US dollar in August amid expectations of more interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank. However, with commodity prices expected to stay relatively high over the long-term, the trend in the A$ is likely to remain up.

At the end of August:

A$1 bought US$0.8580 -8.9%

€0.5851 -3.1%

¥93.34 -8.1%

Source: BT Financial Group

Page 7: BT Monthly Markets Chart Pack – August 2008 An overview of movements in global financial markets

7

Currency markets – A$ per US dollar

Source: BT Financial Group. Figures at 31 August 2008.

0.6000

0.6500

0.7000

0.7500

0.8000

0.8500

0.9000

0.9500

1.0000

Aug-03 Feb-04 Aug-04 Feb-05 Aug-05 Feb-06 Aug-06 Feb-07 Aug-07 Feb-08 Aug-08

The Australian dollar versus the US dollar…

Page 8: BT Monthly Markets Chart Pack – August 2008 An overview of movements in global financial markets

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Currency markets – A$ per Euro

the Euro…

0.5600

0.5700

0.5800

0.5900

0.6000

0.6100

0.6200

0.6300

0.6400

0.6500

Aug-03 Feb-04 Aug-04 Feb-05 Aug-05 Feb-06 Aug-06 Feb-07 Aug-07 Feb-08 Aug-08

Source: BT Financial Group. Figures at 31 August 2008.

Page 9: BT Monthly Markets Chart Pack – August 2008 An overview of movements in global financial markets

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and the Yen

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

Aug-03 Feb-04 Aug-04 Feb-05 Aug-05 Feb-06 Aug-06 Feb-07 Aug-07 Feb-08 Aug-08

Currency markets – A$ per Yen

Source: BT Financial Group. Figures at 31 August 2008.

Page 10: BT Monthly Markets Chart Pack – August 2008 An overview of movements in global financial markets

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Official world interest rate movements – August

In Australia, the Reserve Bank cut the official cash rate by 0.25% (to 7.00%), the Bank’s first rate cut in over six years. Elsewhere, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve all left their rates on hold.

Current rate Last movedDirection of last move

Australia 7.00% Aug 2008

US 2.00% Apr 2008

Europe (ECB) 4.25% Jul 2008

Japan 0.50% Feb 2007

United Kingdom 5.00% Apr 2008

Source: BT Financial Group

Page 11: BT Monthly Markets Chart Pack – August 2008 An overview of movements in global financial markets

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Source: BT Financial Group

31 August 2008

Global share market returns

1 year 3 years (pa) 5 years (pa)

Global

S&P 500 Index (US) -12.97% 1.68% 4.94%

Nasdaq (US Tech.) -8.81% 3.23% 5.51%

Nikkei 225 (Japan) -21.10% 1.74% 4.79%

Hang Seng (Hong Kong) -11.35% 12.57% 14.28%

DAX (Germany) -15.92% 9.97% 13.01%

CAC (France) -20.84% 0.63% 6.24%

FTSE 100 (UK) -10.58% 2.09% 6.26%

Australia

S&P/ASX 200 Accum. Ind. -14.24% 9.43% 14.69%

S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries -19.43% 8.65% 14.89%

S&P/ASX 300 Listed Prop. -36.69% -2.26% 6.47%

Page 12: BT Monthly Markets Chart Pack – August 2008 An overview of movements in global financial markets

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Short-term asset class performance

Source: S&P/ASX 300 Accumulation Index, MSCI World ex-Australia (net dividends) Index in A$, S&P/ASX 300 Property Index, UBS Composite 0+ years index, Citigroup World Government Bond, Unhedged in A$

1-year rolling returns to 31 August 2008 (%) Best performing asset class for the year

2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993

Australian cash

7.64 6.48 5.81 5.67 5.44 4.90 4.65 5.91 5.78 5.01 5.05 6.36 7.78 7.50 4.96 5.77

Australian bonds

6.95 4.39 3.27 7.19 5.16 6.58 5.17 10.44 5.82 4.65 7.01 14.28 12.57 11.66 -2.23 17.99

Australian property

-36.69 21.93 20.94 17.91 24.29 10.88 9.94 16.25 9.38 10.86 14.18 18.82 10.74 9.11 -5.97 31.11

Australian shares

-14.51 27.34 20.33 30.11 16.09 7.29 -1.20 2.85 19.16 22.80 -0.44 19.31 9.62 5.46 9.02 31.24

International bonds

3.73 -0.70 -1.08 0.13 2.19 -6.85 5.10 16.09 7.84 -6.42 38.87 8.46 0.95 12.96 -7.36 15.46

International shares

-16.99

9.39 13.73 10.61 5.81 -5.79 -21.21 -18.28 24.88 19.52 33.60 32.07 7.17 6.86 -2.01 28.72

Page 13: BT Monthly Markets Chart Pack – August 2008 An overview of movements in global financial markets

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Source: S&P/ASX 300 Accumulation Index, MSCI World ex-Australia (net dividends) Index in A$, S&P/ASX 300 Property Index, UBS Composite 0+ years index, Citigroup World Government Bond, Unhedged in A$

1-year returns to 31 August 2008 (%)

Short-term asset class performance (cont’d)

-17.0

3.7

-14.5

-36.7

7.0

9.4

-0.7

27.3

21.9

4.4

31 August 2007

31 August 2008

Australian bonds

Listed property

Australian shares

Global bonds

Global shares

Page 14: BT Monthly Markets Chart Pack – August 2008 An overview of movements in global financial markets

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Long-term asset class performance

Note: Accumulated returns based on $1,000 invested in December 1984Source: S&P/ASX 300 Accumulation Index, MSCI World ex-Australia (net dividends) Index in A$, S&P/ASX 300 Property Index, UBS Composite 0+ years index, Citigroup World Government Bond, Unhedged in A$

31 August 2008

Australian bonds

Listed property

Australian shares

Cash

Global shares

Page 15: BT Monthly Markets Chart Pack – August 2008 An overview of movements in global financial markets

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Source: BT Financial Group. West Texas Intermediate oil price at 31 August 2008.

Oil prices – US$ per barrel

Oil prices continued to fall in August on the back of a slowing global economy and a stronger US dollar

$0

$15

$30

$45

$60

$75

$90

$105

$120

$135

$150

88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Page 16: BT Monthly Markets Chart Pack – August 2008 An overview of movements in global financial markets

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Summary

The underlying strength of the Australian economy, relative to its global counterparts, looks set to continue in the near-term, though admittedly we are now beginning to feel the knock-on effects of the slowdown that’s impacted countries like the US and the UK.

The RBA’s decision to lower the official cash rate should help to bring inflation under control, though at the moment it continues to sit well outside the Bank’s 2-3% comfort zone. If our economy continues to slow as expected, then there’s a good chance we’ll see another rate cut in the coming months.

The Australian dollar (A$) looks set to remain at high levels over the long-term, supported mainly by still high commodity prices. However, if interest rates here do fall further, then the A$ will lose some ground against the US dollar.

Gains in global share markets, including here in Australia, are likely to remain under pressure in the near-term, particularly as global growth continues to slow down.

Page 17: BT Monthly Markets Chart Pack – August 2008 An overview of movements in global financial markets

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This presentation has been prepared by BT Financial Group Limited (ABN 63 002 916 458) ‘BT’ and is for general information only.  Every effort has been made to ensure that it is accurate, however it is not intended to be a complete description of the matters described.  The presentation has been prepared without taking into account any personal objectives, financial situation or needs.  It does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any securities advice or securities recommendation.  Furthermore, it is not intended that it be relied on by recipients for the purpose of making investment decisions and is not a replacement of the requirement for individual research or professional tax advice.  BT does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information which is contained in this presentation.  Except insofar as liability under any statute cannot be excluded, BT and its directors, employees and consultants do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this presentation or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person.  Unless otherwise noted, BT is the source of all charts; and all performance figures are calculated using exit to exit prices and assume reinvestment of income, take into account all fees and charges but exclude the entry fee.  It is important to note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

This document was accompanied by an oral presentation, and is not a complete record of the discussion held.

No part of this presentation should be used elsewhere without prior consent from the author.

For more information, please call BT Customer Relations on 132 135 8:00am to 6:30pm (Sydney time)