budget 2015 analysis

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UNION BUDGET 2015 - 2016 UNION BUDGET 2015 - 2016

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Indian Budget 2015 analysis by Axis Bank Ltd.

TRANSCRIPT

  • UNION BUDGET 2015 - 2016

    UNION BUDGET 2015 - 2016

  • Birla Sun Life capital protection

    oriented fund series-19 seeks

    capital protection by investing in

    fixed income securities maturing

    on or before the tenure of the

    scheme and seeking capital

    appreciation by investing in

    equity and equity related

    instruments.

    The fund has been assigned a

    rating of AAAmfs (SO) by CARE.

    This rating indicates highest

    degree of safety regarding timely

    payments from the investments

    the fund makes. The scheme on

    offer is oriented towards protection of capital but does not

    guarantee either return of capital or any return. The

    orientation towards protection of

    the capital originates from the

    portfolio structure of the scheme

    and not from any bank

    guarantee, insurance cover, etc.

    1

    o Key Highlights

    o Tax Rates

    o Market movements:

    Equity & Debt

    o Economic update:

    - Budget summary

    - Revenue snapshot

    - Expenditure snapshot

    o Sector updates

    o Mutual Funds

    o Equity Market: Outlook and Strategy

    o Debt Market: Outlook and Strategy

    INDEX

    UNION BUDGET, 2015 - 2016

  • Though the Union Budget is essentially a Statement of Account of public finances, it has

    historically become a significant opportunity to indicate the direction and the pace of

    Indias economic policy. At a time when the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its earlier forecast of global economic growth by 0.3%, and the World Trade

    Organization has revised its forecast of world trade growth from 5.3% to 4%, the

    forecasts for India have either been upgraded, or have remained the same, without any

    downgrades.

    With this in the background, we present the key highlights of Union Budget 2015-16.

    KEY

    HIGHLIGHTS

    2

    Tax revenues (net to centre) to grow by a modest 1.3%

    Share of states in tax revenue rises to 42% against 32% earlier

    90% increase in non-debt capital receipts pushes total receipts growth to 4.6%

    Total expenditure growth to slow further to 5.7% (FY15: 7.8%)

    Mid-term fiscal consolidation path relaxed by a year

    Budget picks most of low hanging fruits: removes inverted duty structure, brings further

    clarity and simplifies on tax reforms, boosts investment in infrastructure

    Jump in capital expenditure growth a big positive though Budget lacks serious effort in

    rationalization of food subsidy

    Reining in subsidies to lower expenditures going forward; however, payment of subsidy

    arrears to imply cash outgo in FY16 and FY17

    Tax free infrastructure bonds announced in the rail, road and irrigation sectors

    UNION BUDGET, 2015 - 2016

    Economy

  • 3 UNION BUDGET, 2015 - 2016

    Limit of deduction of health insurance premium increased from Rs 15,000 to Rs

    25,000; for senior citizens, limit increased from Rs 20,000 to Rs 30,000

    Limit on deduction on account of contribution to a pension fund and the new pension

    scheme increased from Rs 1,00,000 (One Lakh) to Rs 1,50,000 (One Lakh Fifty

    Thousand).

    Additional deduction of Rs 50,000 for contribution to the new pension scheme (NPS)

    u/s 80CCD.

    Transport allowance exemption increased from Rs. 800 p.m. to Rs. 1,600 p.m.

    Payment to the beneficiaries including interest payment on deposit in Sukanya

    Samriddhi Scheme (SSS) to be fully exempt.

    Wealth-tax replaced with additional surcharge of 2 per cent on super rich with a taxable income of over Rs 1 crore annually

    Donation made to National Fund for Control of Drug Abuse (NFCDA) to be eligible for 100% deduction u/s 80G of Income-tax Act.

    Proposal to reduce corporate tax from 30% to 25% over the next four years, starting from next financial year.

    General Anti Avoidance Rule (GAAR) to be deferred by two years. GAAR to apply to investments made on or after 01.04.2017, when implemented.

    Positive. The increase in the limit of deduction of health premium, increased

    transport allowance exemption, the additional deduction allowed for contribution to

    the NPS, the payments made under the SSS being exempted and the donations

    made to NFCDA to be eligible for 100% exemption are all positives for

    investors/individuals/savers. The benefits will accrue on account of tax saved as well

    as help create a corpus for the future.

    Direct Taxes

    KEY

    HIGHLIGHTS

  • 4 UNION BUDGET, 2015 - 2016

    The finance minister has proposed to allow tax pass-through for alternate investment funds.

    Rationalisation of capital gains regime for the sponsors exiting at the time of listing of the units of REITs and InvITs. The rental income arising from real estate assets

    directly held by the REIT is also proposed to be allowed to pass through and to be

    taxed in the hands of the unit holders of the REIT.

    The distinction between foreign portfolio investments and foreign direct investments has been done away with and replaced with composite caps.

    The finance minister has allowed foreign investments in Alternate Investment Funds

    Forward Markets Commission to be merged with SEBI to strengthen regulation of commodity forward markets and reduce wild speculation.

    The government will introduce Gold Monetization Scheme, Sovereign Gold Bonds and gold coins with Ashok Chakra to cut demand for gold coins from overseas.

    Service tax plus education cess increased from 12.36% to 14% to facilitate transition to GST

    Generation of black money and its concealment to be dealt with effectively and forcefully.

    Bill for a comprehensive new law to deal with black money parked abroad to be introduced in the current session.

    Benami Transactions (Prohibition) Bill to curb domestic black money to be introduced in the current session of Parliament.

    Miscellaneous

    KEY

    HIGHLIGHTS

  • Equity Market

    Markets were very volatile throughout the trading day, but ended in green towards the end of the trading session on the Budget Day.

    Markets opened with positive sentiments and Sensex opened 191 points up from its previous close. Sensex was trading up by almost 400 points higher from its previous

    close in the early trade before the announcement of the Union budget.

    However, markets see sawed throughout the day as the Finance Minister went about presenting the Union Budget.

    At the end, the Sensex closed at 29,361 levels with gains of 141 points or 0.5%.

    Among the sector indices consumer durables lost more than 4% while Power lost almost 1.5%. Realty, Capital Goods and Metal Indices were down by 0.9%, 0.26%

    and 0.22% respectively. Banking sector index was up by more than 3%,while

    Healthcare and Auto went up by 2.03% and 1.08% respectively.

    Among Sensex stocks, Axis Bank (8.15%), Sun Pharma (3.62%),Tata Motors (3.15%) & ICICI Bank (3.15%) were the top gainers while ITC (-8.27%), BHEL (-

    3.21%) and NTPC (-1.64%) were among the major losers.

    Debt Market

    Bond markets were closed on Saturday on the day Budget was announced.

    The 10 year benchmark yield had closed at 7.72% on Friday.

    The finance minister sought an additional year to meet its medium-term fiscal deficit target with the additional fiscal space going towards funding infrastructure

    investments.

    MARKET

    MOVEMENT

    5 UNION BUDGET, 2015 - 2016

  • Fiscal deficit target set at 3.9% as total receipts constrained by increased tax revenue

    transfer to states

    Budget builds credibility on realistic revenue expectations and higher growth in

    capital expenditure

    Tax revenues (net to centre) to grow by modest 1.3% despite gross tax revenues growth

    by 15.8%

    Share of states in tax revenue rises to 42% against 32% earlier, as recommended by 14th

    Finance Commission (FFC)

    Gross tax revenue growth driven by:

    24.8% jump in service tax due to increase in service tax rate from 12% to 14%

    23.9% increase in excise duty due to increase in excise duty on petrol and diesel

    and

    17.5% increase in income tax

    90% increase in non-debt capital receipts pushes total receipts growth to 4.6%

    Disinvestment of Rs 695 bn (FY15: Rs 313) includes Rs 285 bn from SUUTI and

    others

    Total expenditure growth to slow further to 5.7% (FY15: 7.8%)

    Capital expenditure growth at 25.5%, primarily driven by defence, railways and

    road

    Subsidies at 2.4 trillions provided adequately

    Mid-term fiscal consolidation path relaxed by a year

    Revised fiscal deficit targets of 3.6% in FY17 and 3% by FY18

    Quality fiscal consolidation likely to deteriorate

    ECONOMIC

    UPDATE

    6 UNION BUDGET, 2015 - 2016

  • ECONOMIC

    UPDATE

    7

    FY16 fiscal math assumes; 42% tax transfer to states, Nominal GDP growth of 11.5%,

    increase in tax buoyancy and savings on subsidy outgo

    UNION BUDGET, 2015 - 2016

    % YoY

    Rs. Trillions FY14 FY15 FY16 FY15 RE FY16 BE

    A RE BE FY14 A FY15 RE

    Revenue Receipts 10.15 11.26 11.42 11.0% 1.4%

    Capital Receipts 0.42 0.42 0.80 0.9% 90.0%

    Total Receipts 10.57 11.69 12.22 10.6% 4.6%

    Expenditures 15.59 16.81 17.77 7.8% 5.7%

    Revenue Expenditure 13.72 14.89 15.36 8.5% 3.2%

    Capital Expenditure 1.88 1.92 2.41 2.5% 25.5%

    Fiscal Deficit 5.03 5.13 5.56 1.9% 8.4%

    Revenue Deficit 3.57 3.62 3.94 1.5% 8.8%

    Primary Deficit 1.29 1.01 1.00 -21.3% -1.7%

    Bonds + Tbills Issued (Net) 4.61 4.98 4.86 8.0% -2.3%

    GDP 113 127 141

    Nominal GDP Growth Rate 12.2% 11.5% 11.5%

    Fiscal Deficit % GDP 4.4% 4.1% 3.9%

    Revenue Deficit % GDP 3.1% 2.9% 2.8%

    Primary Deficit % GDP 1.1% 0.8% 0.7%

    Tax buoyancy 0.81 0.86 1.38

    Expenditure Elasticity 0.87 0.68 0.50

    Tax revenues (net of centre) to grow by just 1.4% due to increased transfer to States at 42% in FY16 compared to 32% in FY15

    Cut back in Central assistance to CSS pursuant to increase devolvement to States limited growth in Revenue Expenditure

    Due to increase in tax transfer to States, expenditure elasticity measure is not comparable to previous years

  • ECONOMIC

    UPDATE

    8

    Revenues buoyed by additional excise collection from petroleum products and higher

    Service tax collections

    UNION BUDGET, 2015 - 2016

    % YoY % BE

    Rs. Trillions FY14 FY15 FY15 FY16 FY15 RE FY16 BE FY15

    A BE RE BE FY14 A FY15 RE RE

    Gross Tax Revenues 11.39 13.65 12.51 14.49 9.9% 15.8% 92%

    Income Tax 2.43 2.84 2.79 3.27 14.7% 17.5% 98%

    Corporation Tax 3.95 4.51 4.26 4.71 8.0% 10.5% 94%

    Excise 1.70 2.07 1.85 2.30 9.0% 23.9% 90%

    Customs 1.72 2.02 1.89 2.08 9.7% 10.4% 94%

    Service Tax 1.55 2.16 1.68 2.10 8.6% 24.8% 78%

    Direct Tax 6.38 7.35 7.05 7.98 10.5% 13.2% 96%

    Indirect Tax 4.97 6.25 5.42 6.48 9.1% 19.5% 87%

    Tax Revenues (Net to Centre) 8.16 9.77 9.08 9.20 11.4% 1.3% 93%

    Non-Tax Revenues 1.99 2.13 2.18 2.22 9.5% 1.8% 103%

    o/w Dividends 0.90 0.90 0.89 1.01 -1.8% 13.4% 98%

    Telecom receipts 0.40 0.45 0.43 0.43 7.6% -0.7%

    Revenue Receipts 10.15 11.90 11.26 11.42 11.0% 1.4% 95%

    Capital Receipts 0.42 0.74 0.42 0.80 0.9% 90.0% 57%

    o/w Disinvestments 0.29 0.63 0.31 0.70 6.7% 121.7% 49%

    Total Receipts 10.57 12.64 11.69 12.22 10.6% 4.6% 92%

    Tax buoyancy 0.81 1.47 0.86 1.38In

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  • ECONOMIC

    UPDATE

    9

    Jump in capital expenditure growth a big positive though Budget lacks serious effort in

    rationalization of food subsidy

    UNION BUDGET, 2015 - 2016

    % YoY % BE

    Rs. Trillions FY14 FY15 FY15 FY16 FY15 RE FY16 BE FY15

    A BE RE BE FY14 A FY15 RE RE

    Expenditures 15.59 17.95 16.81 17.77 7.8% 5.7% 94%

    Plan 4.53 5.75 4.68 4.65 3.2% -0.6% 81%

    Central Plan 3.40 2.37 1.90 2.60 -44.3% 37.3% 80%

    Assistance to State Plans 1.13 3.38 2.78 2.05 146.5% -26.4% 82%

    Non-Plan 11.06 12.20 12.13 13.12 9.7% 8.2% 99%

    Subsidies 2.65 2.61 2.67 2.44 0.8% -8.6% 102%

    o/w Food 0.92 1.15 1.23 1.24 33.3% 1.4% 107%

    Fertilzer 0.67 0.73 0.71 0.73 5.4% 2.8% 97%

    Petroleum 0.85 0.63 0.60 0.30 -29.4% -50.2% 95%

    Interest 3.74 4.27 4.11 4.56 9.9% 10.9% 96%

    Defence 1.24 1.34 1.40 1.52 12.9% 8.4% 104%

    Salaries + Pensions 1.46 1.65 1.63 1.76 11.7% 7.9% 99%

    Revenue Expenditure 13.72 15.68 14.89 15.36 8.5% 3.2% 95%

    Capital Expenditure 1.88 2.27 1.92 2.41 2.5% 25.5% 85%

    Expenditure Elasticity 0.87 1.12 0.68 0.50

    Lower Assistance to State Plans pursuant to increase in devolution of taxes to States

  • ECONOMIC

    UPDATE

    10

    Sources of financing fiscal deficit: Despite higher fiscal deficit, net market borrowings

    largely remains flat

    UNION BUDGET, 2015 - 2016

    Cash drawdown of Rs. 120 bn. and short-term borrowings resorted to keep Market

    borrowings lower in the face high redemptions in FY16

    Rs. Bn.

    Debt receipts to finance fiscal deficit FY13 FY14 FY15 RE FY16 BE

    Market loans 4,674 4,536 4,469 4,564

    Short term borrowings 534 77 512 301

    External loans 72 73 97 112

    Securities against small sav ings 86 124 333 224

    State Prov ident Funds 109 98 100 100

    Other receipts (63) 313 (228) 136

    Draw-down of Cash Balance (510) (192) (157) 120

    Repayments 906 950 1,388 1,436

    Switch -151 -63

    Gross Borrowings 5,580 5,637 5,920 6,000

  • 11

    SECTOR

    UPDATES

    UNION BUDGET, 2015 - 2016

    Source: Axis Capital

    Sector Key budget measures Impact

    Excise duty was increased pre-budget itself. Few indirect

    positives are as below:

    Increased allocation (> 2x) towards road construction

    Custom duty on imported CVs (CBUs) increased to 40%

    from 10%

    Higher MNREGA allocation and long-term measures to

    improve farmer productivity/ income

    Capex for defense increased by 15% YoY (MHCVs by 10%

    YoY)

    Measures to enhance individual tax exemptions

    Fungibility of FDI and FII limits

    SARFAESI Act benefit extended to NBFCs

    Agriculture loans target at Rs 8.5 trn vs. Rs 8 trn in FY15

    Limited capital allocation of PSU banks

    Establishing Bank Board Bureau for PSU banks. Path

    towards creation of Holding Company structure

    CementIncreased spending on infrastructure/ housing and plans to

    revitalize PPP mode of infrastructure

    Positive: Industry would benefit from

    higher volume growth

    Forward Markets Commission to be merged with SEBI. This

    will pave the way for higher liquidity and market depth

    through introduction of new products (options/ indices) and

    institutional participation in commodity exchanges in the

    long term

    Commodity derivatives included in Securities Contract

    Regulation Act

    Commodity

    ExchangesPositive: Commodity Exchanges

    Banking &

    Financial

    Services

    Autos Positive: 2-Wheelers and Tractors

    Positive for Private banks and NBFCs

  • 12

    SECTOR

    UPDATES

    UNION BUDGET, 2015 - 2016

    Source: Axis Capital

    Sector Key budget measures Impact

    O utlays up by 50% : Bulk of the increase in roads (up

    195%) and railways (up 53%)

    Push on metro rail projects and smart cities: 7 new

    metro projects to be awarded in FY16

    5 new UMPPs announced to be awarded with all

    clearances

    Eased infra financing through formation of a National

    Infrastructure Fund and Infra investment trusts. NIF has a

    potential of infra lending of USD 30 bn through initial

    equity commitment of USD 3 bn

    Resolution of contractual disputes: Setting up a

    regulator for resolution of contractual disputes for public

    sector projects

    Excise duty on cigarettes hiked by weighted average

    ~ 18% We expect ITCs cigarette volume to decline by ~ 8%

    in FY16 as we expect 17% price hike. Earnings downgraded

    by ~ 3%

    Reduction in excise duty on footwear was partly offset by

    lower abatement charges

    Increased allocation to MNREGA (up ~ 20% YoY) and

    GST roll out from April16 is a positive

    Allocation for transport up 1.7x led by roads and

    railways

    PPP to be revisited and revitalized

    PSU ports to be gradually corporatized

    Capital

    goods

    Positive: Capital Goods and EPC

    companies

    FMCG &

    Retail

    Negative: Cigarettes manufacturers

    Positive: Paints and Footwear Cos

    Positive for EPC companies and road

    developersInfrastructure

  • 13

    SECTOR

    UPDATES

    UNION BUDGET, 2015 - 2016

    Source: Axis Capital

    Sector Key budget measures Impact

    Negative: Amusement park operators

    No impact for Exhibitors

    Metals/ MiningIncrease in clean energy cess on coal to Rs 200/ ton (Rs

    100/ ton currently)Neutral for Coal mining companies

    Lowering fuel subsidy provision to Rs 300 bn in FY16 (Rs

    603 bn in FY15), which reflects overall reduction in gross

    under-recoveries

    Tweaking excise duties on petrol/ diesel (reducing basic

    duty and hiking additional duty by same amount) keeping

    overall duty same

    Cut customs duty on EDC/ VCM/ Styrene to 2% from 2.5%.

    For naphtha (used for excisable goods), customs duty cut

    to 2% from 4%

    Continued expansion of Direct Benefit Transfer for LPG

    (1) Additional investment allowance at 15% and (2)

    additional depreciation at 15% to new manufacturing units

    set up from 1st Apr 2015 to 31st Mar 2020 in notified

    areas of Andhra Pradesh (AP) and Telangana

    Companies having capex plans largely in AP and

    Telangana like Aurobindo (capex of Rs 7 bn in FY15F),

    Divis (Rs 6 bn) and Dr Reddys (Rs 10 bn) would gain

    given higher allowance and lower

    depreciation

    Oil & Gas

    MediaService tax to be levied on amusement facility,

    entertainment events or concerts, pageants, non-

    Pharmaceuticals Positive for Pharma cos

    Neutral for Oil PSUs, OMCs and

    refining/ petchem companies

  • 14

    SECTOR

    UPDATES

    UNION BUDGET, 2015 - 2016

    Source: Axis Capital

    Sector Key budget measures Impact

    To improve liquidity for the sector

    Allocation for rural and urban housing increased in

    continuation to the Govts Housing for all initiative (60

    mn units to be built by 2022)

    Neutral for Telecom cos

    Phased reduction of corporate tax to 25%

    Budget receipts pegged at ~ Rs 429 bn in FY16 (Rs 432 bn

    in FY15E). Budgetary receipts in line. ~ Rs 230 bn will be

    from annual regulatory levies and balance from additional

    15 MHz of 2100 spectrum band

    Positive for developers with strong annuity

    portfolio.

    Realty

    Negative for companies selling power on

    merchant basis.

    Telecom

    Increase in service tax (ST) to14% from 12.36%. ST is a

    pass through and has no material impact on minutes

    (except for full talk time plans where operators absorb the

    same)

    Clean Energy Cess on coal increased to Rs 200/ ton from

    Rs 100/ ton

    Power

    Provided exemption on long-term capital gains for

    sponsors and tax pass through status to rental income at

    REIT level

  • 15

    MUTUAL

    FUNDS

    UNION BUDGET, 2015 - 2016

    BUDGET PROPOSALS IMPACTING MUTUAL FUND INDUSTRY

    o Surcharge on income distributed by mutual funds increased from 10% to

    12%. This will result in reduced income in the hands of the investor. Revised

    dividend distribution tax will now be as follows:

    Individual: from 28.325% to 28.840%

    Others: from 33.990% to 34.608%

    o Tax neutrality is provided on transfer of units of a scheme of a Mutual

    Fund under the process of consolidation of schemes of Mutual Funds as per

    SEBI Regulations, 1996.

    Unit holders will now have tax neutrality upon consolidation or merger of mutual fund schemes provided that the consolidation is of two or

    more schemes of an equity oriented fund or two or more schemes of a

    fund other than equity oriented fund.

    o Service Tax exemptions are being withdrawn for services

    provided by a mutual fund agent to a mutual fund or asset management company and

    services provided by a distributor to a mutual fund or AMC.

  • The Union Budget 2015-16 was presented in the backdrop of high expectations from a market which had pinned high hopes on the BJP led NDA government which had

    the strongest electoral mandate in the last three decades.

    The Budget puts forward the pro-growth focus of the government, while at the same time maintaining fiscal credibility in the medium term.

    The Budget is a step in the right direction with a push towards infrastructure, steps to ease doing of business, encourage financial savings and rationalise subsidies.

    The Indian economy is poised to grow at a healthy rate when most of the larger economies are facing downgrades in their GDP growth.

    Indias macroeconomic fundamentals have improved dramatically for the better. Improvement in growth, declining inflation, improving CAD and stable rupee have all

    aided in improved FII flows and surge in equity markets.

    Amidst a global slowdown in economic growth, India continues to be an attractive investment destination.

    Equity market valuations are also reasonable when compared to their long term Price to Earnings (P/E) averages

    We recommend investors to accumulate equities from a 3 to 5 years investment horizon.

    We advise Diversified Equity, Large Cap and Mid Cap funds

    EQUITY

    MARKET

    OUTLOOK

    AND STRATERGY

    16 UNION BUDGET, 2015 - 2016

  • The government relaxed the fiscal deficit target for FY 16 and FY 17 to 3.9% and 3.5% respectively in return for additional infrastructure spending. The medium term

    fiscal deficit target of 3% has been pushed to FY 18.

    Government is likely to borrow Rs.6 lakh crores in FY16 compared to Rs.5.92 lakh crores for this fiscal. The budgeted target for borrowing in current fiscal was Rs.6

    lakh crores, but the government will raise only Rs.5.92 lakh crores from markets.

    However, the net borrowings in 2015-16 will be Rs.4.56 lakh crores, after considering repayments of past loans and interests. It was Rs.4.53 lakh crores in

    current fiscal.

    Despite the slightly higher than expected fiscal & revenue deficit target, net borrowing of Rs.4.53 lakh crores is reasonably lower.

    The demand-supply mismatch for G-Secs is expected to be comfortable this year.

    RBI in its last monetary policy review had hinted that future course of interest rates would be dependent on inflation and fiscal consolidation intent of the government.

    With inflation within RBIs target (CPI at 6% for Jan 16) and with the government outlining the fiscal roadmap, the onus now shifts to RBI on the monetary policy front.

    Yields are likely to be range bound in the near term. However, we are positive from a medium to long term perspective with a pro-active inflation targeting RBI and a

    credible govt. at the Centre.

    Long Term Income & Gilt and Dynamic Bond Funds can be recommended with an investment horizon of 18 to 24 months.

    Short term income funds can be recommended for investors with an investment horizon of 12 to 18 months to benefit from current accruals and

    ensuing capital appreciation if yields head lower during this period.

    The Budget also announced allocation for tax free infrastructure bonds. This will result in fresh primary supply of these bonds. Details about the names of state

    organisations and coupon on these tax free bonds are still awaited.

    DEBT

    MARKET

    OUTLOOK

    AND STRATERGY

    17 UNION BUDGET, 2015 - 2016

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    18

    DISCLAIMER

    UNION BUDGET, 2015 - 2016