budget08 released on 17 november 2009 ppt version 25 november

8/14/2019 Budget08 Released on 17 November 2009 Ppt Version 25 November

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CarbonCarbon

20082008BudgetBudget

Budget08 Released on 17 November 2009

ppt version 25 November 2009

GCP-Global Carbon Budget Consortium


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Artist Impression of the Human Perturbation of the Carbon Cycle


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Fossil Fuel Emissions and Cement Production

CO2em

issions(Pg

C

y-1)

9

8

7

6

1990 2000 2010

Growth rate: 1.0% per year

Growth rate: 3.4% per year

2008:

Emissions: 8.7 PgCGrowth rate: 2.0%

1990 levels: +41%

2000-2008

Growth rate: 3.4%

Le Qur et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; CDIAC 2009

[1 Pg = 1 Petagram = 1 Billion metric tonnes = 1 Gigatonne = 1x1015g]


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CO2 Fossil Fuel Emissions

Annex B (Kyoto Protocol)

Developed Nation

Developing NationsNon-Annex B

1990 2000 2010

5

4

3

2CO2em

issions(Pg

C

y-1)

55%

45%


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1990 05 01 05 200807 99 0303

Time

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

C

arbonEmissionsperyear

(tons

x1,0

00,0

00)

China

USA

Japan

Russian Fed. India

Fossil Fuel Emissions: Top Emitters (>4% of Total)

Global Carbon Project 2009; Data: Gregg Marland, CDIAC 2009


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1990 05 01 05 200807 99 0303

Time

0

40

80

120

160UK

Denmark

South Africa

Australia Spain

Canada

Brazil

Fossil Fuel Emissions: Profile Examples (1-4% of Total)

C

arbonEm

issionsperyear

(tons

x1,0

00,0

00)

Global Carbon Project 2009; Data: Gregg Marland, CDIAC 2009


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Balance of Emissions Embodied in Trade (BEET)

Peters and Hertwich 2008, Environ, Sci & Tech., updated

MtC

BEET

Warm colors Net exporters of embodied carbon

Cold colors Net importers of embodied carbon

Year 2004


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Global Carbon Project 2009; Le Qur et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Data: Peters & Hetwich

2009; Peters et al. 2008; Weber et al 2008; Guan et al. 2008; CDIAC 2009

Transport of Embodied Emissions

CO2 emissions (PgC y-1)

Annex B

Developed Nations


1990 2000 2010

5

4

3

2

55%

45%

1990 2000 2010

5

25% of growth

Annex B

Developed Nations


4

3

2


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Number ofCountries Country CumulativeFraction

China .232

USA .419

India .477Russia .530

Japan .573

Germany .599Canada .617

UK .633

South Korea .652

Iran .668Poland .800

Belarus .941

Moldova .992

1.00

Cumulative Fraction of Total FF Emissions 2008

Gregg Marland, CDIAC 2009

1

2

34

5

67

8

9

1020

50 (2005)

100 (2005)

210

3 countries

50% Global Emissions

10 countries

2/3 Global Emissions

Top 5 + EU

80% Global Emissions


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Components of FF Emissions

Le Qur et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience

CO2

emis

sions(PgC

y-1)

Oil

Coal

Gas

Cement

4

3

2

1

01990 2000 2010

40%

36%


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Change in CO2 Emissions from Coal Emissions

CDIAC 2009; Global Carbon Project 2009

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

China USIndia World

CO2

em

issions(Tg

C

y-1)

90% of growth

2006-2008


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Per Capita CO2 Emissions


PerCapitaEmissio

ns

(tCp

erson-1y-1)

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

1.3

1.2

1.1

Developed

countries

continue tolead with the

highest

emission per

capita


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Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios

Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS, updated; Le Qur et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; International Monetary Fund 2009

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

FossilF

uelE

mission(GtC

y-1)

5

6

7

8

9

10

A1B

A1FI

A1T

A2

B1

B2

Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center

International Energy Agency


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Economic Crisis Impact on World GDP Growth

International Monetary Fund, October 2009

-1.1%


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Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios

Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS, updated; Le Qur et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; International Monetary Fund 2009

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

FossilF

uelEmission(GtC

y-1)

5

6

7

8

9

10

Projection

A1B

A1FI

A1T

A2

B1

B2

Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center

International Energy Agency

Projection 2009

Emissions: -2.8%

GDP: -1.1%

C intensity: -1.7%


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Le Qur et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Data: CDIAC, FAO, Woods Hole Research Center 2009

CO2 Emissions from Land Use Change

Fossil fuel

Land use change

10

8

6

4

2

1960 20101970 1990 20001980

CO2em

issions(Pg

C

y-1)


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Net CO2 Emissions from LUC in Tropical Countries

2000-2005

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Brazil

Indonesia

CO2em

issions(Tg

C

y-1)

RA Houghton 2009, unpublished; Based on FAO Global Forest Resource Assessment

60%

Venezuela

Rep.Dem.Congo

Nigeria

4-2%

Cameroon

Peru

Philippines

2-1%

Colombia

Nicaragua

Nepal

India


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Canadell et al. 2009, Biogeosciences

Emissions from Land Use Change (2000-2005)

(Area)


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van der Werf et al. 2006, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, updated

Fire Emissions from Deforestation Zones

FireEmissionsfrom

d

eforestation

zones(TgC

y-1)

Global Fire Emissions Dataset (vs2)


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Total Anthropogenic Emissions 2008

Fossil fuel

Land use change

10

8

6

4

2

1960 20101970 1990 20001980

CO2emissions(PgC

y-1) 8.7

1.2

9.9 PgC

12% of total

anthropogenic

emissions

Le Qur et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Data: CDIAC, FAO, Woods Hole Research Center 2009


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Atmospheric CO2 Concentration

Data Source: Pieter Tans and Thomas Conway, NOAA/ESRL

1970 1979: 1.3 ppm y-1

1980 1989: 1.6 ppm y1

1990 1999: 1.5 ppm y-1

2000 - 2008: 1.9 ppm y-1

2008 1.79

2007 2.12

2006 1.77

2005 2.41

2004 1.62

2003 2.22

2002 2.40

2001 1.85

2000 1.24

Year 2008

385 ppm38% above pre-industrial

Annual Mean Growth Rate


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Total

CO2 emissions

Atmosphere

Data: NOAA, CDIAC; Le Qur et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience

CO2

Pa

rtitioning(P

gC

y-1)

1960 20101970 1990 20001980

10

8

6

4

2

Key Diagnostic of the Carbon Cycle

Evolution of the fraction of total emissions that remain in the atmosphere


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AirborneFraction

1960 20101970 1990 20001980

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

Fraction of total CO2

emissions that remains in the atmosphere

Airborne Fraction

Trend: 0.270.2 % y-1 (p=0.9)

40%45%

Le Qur et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS; Raupach et al. 2008, Biogeosciences


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Modelled Natural CO2 Sinks



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outgas

uptake

Estimated Trends in Sea-Air pCO2

1981-2007


atm y-1


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Possible Reasons for a Positive Trend in Airborne Fraction

Emissions are rising faster than the time scales regulating therate of uptake by sinks.

Sinks are becoming less efficient at high CO2 Land: saturation of the CO2 fertilization effect

Ocean: decrease in [carbonate] which buffers CO2

Land and/or ocean sinks are responding to climate changeand variability.

We are missing sink processes in models that are contributingto the observed changes.


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deforestation

tropicsextra-tropics

CO

2

flu

x(PgC

y-1)

Sink

Source

Time (y)

Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget

Global Carbon Project 2009; Le Qur et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience

1.4

2000-2008PgC


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fossil fuel emissions

deforestation

CO

2flu

x(PgC

y-1)

Sink

Source

Time (y)


7.7

1.4

2000-2008PgC



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deforestation

CO

2flu

x(PgC

y-1)

Sink

Source

Time (y)

atmospheric CO2


7.7

1.4

4.1

2000-2008PgC


H P b i f h Gl b l C b B d


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atmospheric CO2


deforestation

ocean

CO

2flu

x(PgC

y-1)

Sink

Source

Time (y)


7.7

1.4

4.1

2.3 (4 models)

2000-2008PgC


H P t b ti f th Gl b l C b B d t


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atmospheric CO2

ocean

land


deforestation

7.7

1.4

4.1

3.0 (5 models)

2000-2008PgC

CO

2flu

x(PgC

y-1)

Sink

Source

Time (y)


2.3 (4 models)


H P t b ti f th Gl b l C b B d t


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atmospheric CO2

ocean

land


deforestation

7.7

1.4

4.1

3.0 (5 models)

2000-2008PgC

CO

2flu

x(PgC

y-1)

Sink

Source

Time (y)


0.3 Residual

2.3 (4 models)


Fate of Anthropogenic CO Emissions


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Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2000-2008)

Le Qur et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS, updated

1.4 PgC y-1

+7.7 PgC y-1

3.0 PgC y-1

29%

4.1 PgC y-1

45%

26%2.3 PgC y-1


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Global Carbon Project 2009

Conclusions


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The efficiency of the natural sinks has being declining overthe last 60 years, a trend not fully captured by climate

models.

The human perturbation of the carbon cycle continues to

grow strongly and track the most carbon intensivescenarios of the IPCC. The economic crisis will likely havea transitional impact on the growth of CO2 emissions and aundetectable effect on the growth of atmospheric CO2(because the much larger inter-annual variability of thenatural sinks).

Conclusions

References cited in this ppt


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Canadell JG, Raupach MR, Houghton RA (2009) Anthropogenic CO2 emissions inAfrica. Biogeosciences 6: 463-468.

International Monetary Fund (2009) World economic outlook. October 2009. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/02/index.htm

Le Qur C, Raupach MR, Canadell JG, Marland G et al. (2009) Trends in thesources and sinks of carbon dioxide. Nature geosciences, doi: 10.1038/ngeo689. Marland G, Hamal K, Jonas M (2009) How uncertain are estimates of CO2

emissions. Journal of Industrial Ecology 13: 4-7. Peters GP, Hertwich E G (2008) CO2 embodied in international trade with implications for global

climate policy. Environmental Science and Technology 42, 1401-1407.

Raupach MR, Canadell JG, Le Qur C (2008) Drivers of interannual to interdecadalvariability in atmospheric in atmospheric CO2 growth rate and airborne fraction.Biogeosciences 5: 16011613.

Sitch S, Huntigford C, Gedney N et al. (2008) Evaluation of the terrestrial carboncycle, future plant geography and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks using five DynamicGlobal Vegetation Models (DGVMs). Global Change Biology 14: 125, doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01626.x.

van der Werf GR, Randerson JT, Giglio L, Collatz GL, Kasibhatla PS, Arellano AF, Jr(2006) Interannual variability in global biomass burning emissions from 1997 to 2004.Atmos. Chem. Phys. 6: 34233441.

References cited in this ppt


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www.globalcarbonproject.org

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