builders outlook 2013 issue 1

16
Builders utlook www.elpasobuilders.com www.epbuilders.org 2013 issue 1 2013: U pward trends in recent months among a number of housing indicators point to a slow and steady growth in the nation’s housing market in 2013, but several challenges remain, according to the latest economic and housing forecast by David Crowe, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). “Consistent, positive reports on housing starts, permits, prices, new- home sales and builder confidence in recent months provide further confirmation that a gradual but steady housing recovery is underway across much of the nation,” said Crowe. “However, stubbornly tight lending standards for home buyers and builders, inaccurate appraisals and proposals by policymakers to tamper with the mortgage interest deduction could dampen future housing demand.” Stating there is no consistent national trend, Crowe noted the housing recovery is local but spreading. “We are transitioning from a very low demand level, where most people hold themselves out of the marketplace, to a case where supply will start being the problem,” he said. “As we begin to build more homes to address that supply, the new home stock will be a much more important element of the recovery.” Setting the 2000-2002 period as a baseline benchmark for normal housing activity, Crowe said that owner-occupied remodeling has returned to previously normal levels. “Multifamily production is also well on its way, back to 69 percent of normal,” he said. “It’s the single- family market that has the farthest to go, standing at only 40 percent of what is considered a typical market.” Meanwhile, the number of improving housing markets across the nation continues to show considerable advancement. When the NAHB/First American Improving Markets Index (IMI) was launched in September of 2011, only 12 metropolitan areas out of 360 were on the list. As of December 2012, the list stands at more than 200 metro areas. The index is based on a six- month upswing in housing permits, employment and house prices. “One reason we have seen such a significant jump in the IMI is because house prices are beginning to recover,” said Crowe. “House prices bottomed out early in 2011 and since early 2012 we’ve seen a 6 percent increase on a national basis.” Another factor spurring the recovery is that household formations are on the rise. In the early part of the decade, the nation was generating 1.4 million new households each year. This collapsed to 500,000 annually during the housing downturn and currently new households are being formed at close to a 900,000 clip per annum. “We’re not up to normal, but this is adding to demand for housing,” Crowe said. As new households form at a growing rate, so too does builder confidence. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, which measures builder confidence in the single-family housing market, has posted gains for eight consecutive months and now stands at a level of 47. This is very close to the critical midpoint of 50, where equal numbers of builders view the market as good or bad. The HMI has not been above 50 since April of 2006. Single-family home starts are projected to climb to 534,000 units this year, up 23 percent from 2011. NAHB is forecasting that single- family new-home production will post a healthy 21 percent gain in 2013 to 647,000 units. Starts will continue their upward climb in 2014, posting a further 29 percent rise to 837,000 units. Multifamily production is expected to rise 31 percent in 2012, reaching the 233,000 level, and posting a solid 16 percent gain in 2013 to 270,000 units. Multifamily starts are anticipated to rise an additional 9 percent in 2014 to 294,000 units. Meanwhile, new single-family home sales are expected to rise from 307,000 last year to 367,000 this year, a 20 percent rise. Sales are anticipated to climb to 447,000 next year, up 22 percent from 2012 and jump to 607,000 in 2014, a 36 percent increase over 2013 levels. Housing remains on growth track, challenges still loom above Rally Day is the best way for members to familiarize themselves with the issues that face the residential construction industry and, more importantly, deliver our legislative agenda straight to the doorstep of our legislators. This is also a great way to build relationships with legislators and network with other members within the association. Rally Day is the perfect event for new members to attend and see firsthand what TAB does for them and their businesses as well as how your government relations team advocates on behalf of the home building industry at the Capitol. As in years past, we will have an address from an elected official and a legislative update on the South Steps of the Capitol. This year, lunch will be on your own in between your Capitol visits. We will wrap up the day’s festivities and join us for a legislative reception at the historic Driskill Hotel. Your support is needed to protect our entire industry, and TAB asks that you and your local association make the commitment to travel to Austin on Wednesday, February 20 for Rally Day 2013. We look forward to you being a part of this special—and effective— legislative event. If you have any questions about Rally Day 2013, please feel free to contact the office at (915) 778-5387 Builders head for Austin

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The official publication of the El Paso Association of Builders

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Builders utlookwww.elpasobuilders.com www.epbuilders.org

2013issue 1

2013:

Upward trends in recentmonths among a number ofhousing indicators point to a

slow and steady growth in thenation’s housing market in 2013, butseveral challenges remain,according to the latest economic andhousing forecast by David Crowe,chief economist for the NationalAssociation of Home Builders(NAHB).

“Consistent, positive reports onhousing starts, permits, prices, new-home sales and builder confidencein recent months provide furtherconfirmation that a gradual butsteady housing recovery is underwayacross much of the nation,” saidCrowe. “However, stubbornly tightlending standards for home buyers

and builders, inaccurate appraisalsand proposals by policymakers totamper with the mortgage interestdeduction could dampen futurehousing demand.”

Stating there is no consistentnational trend, Crowe noted thehousing recovery is local butspreading.

“We are transitioning from a verylow demand level, where mostpeople hold themselves out of themarketplace, to a case where supplywill start being the problem,” he said.“As we begin to build more homes toaddress that supply, the new homestock will be a much more importantelement of the recovery.”

Setting the 2000-2002 period as abaseline benchmark for normal

housing activity, Crowe said thatowner-occupied remodeling hasreturned to previously normal levels.

“Multifamily production is also wellon its way, back to 69 percent ofnormal,” he said. “It’s the single-family market that has the farthest togo, standing at only 40 percent ofwhat is considered a typical market.”

Meanwhile, the number ofimproving housing markets acrossthe nation continues to showconsiderable advancement. Whenthe

NAHB/First American ImprovingMarkets Index (IMI) was launched inSeptember of 2011, only 12metropolitan areas out of 360 wereon the list. As of December 2012, thelist stands at more than 200 metroareas. The index is based on a six-month upswing in housing permits,employment and house prices.

“One reason we have seen such asignificant jump in the IMI is becausehouse prices are beginning torecover,” said Crowe. “House pricesbottomed out early in 2011 and sinceearly 2012 we’ve seen a 6 percentincrease on a national basis.”

Another factor spurring therecovery is that householdformations are on the rise. In theearly part of the decade, the nationwas generating 1.4 million newhouseholds each year. Thiscollapsed to 500,000 annually duringthe housing downturn and currentlynew households are being formed atclose to a 900,000 clip per annum.

“We’re not up to normal, but this is

adding to demand for housing,”Crowe said.

As new households form at agrowing rate, so too does builderconfidence. The NAHB/Wells FargoHousing Market Index, whichmeasures builder confidence in thesingle-family housing market, hasposted gains for eight consecutivemonths and now stands at a level of47. This is very close to the criticalmidpoint of 50, where equal numbersof builders view the market as goodor bad. The HMI has not been above50 since April of 2006.

Single-family home starts areprojected to climb to 534,000 unitsthis year, up 23 percent from 2011.NAHB is forecasting that single-family new-home production will posta healthy 21 percent gain in 2013 to647,000 units. Starts will continuetheir upward climb in 2014, posting afurther 29 percent rise to 837,000units.

Multifamily production is expectedto rise 31 percent in 2012, reachingthe 233,000 level, and posting asolid 16 percent gain in 2013 to270,000 units. Multifamily starts areanticipated to rise an additional 9percent in 2014 to 294,000 units.

Meanwhile, new single-familyhome sales are expected to rise from307,000 last year to 367,000 thisyear, a 20 percent rise. Sales areanticipated to climb to 447,000 nextyear, up 22 percent from 2012 andjump to 607,000 in 2014, a 36percent increase over 2013 levels.

Housing remains on growth track, challenges still loom above

Rally Day is thebest way formembers tofamiliarizethemselves withthe issues that facethe residentialconstructionindustry and, moreimportantly, deliverour legislativeagenda straight to

the doorstep of our legislators. This isalso a great way to build relationshipswith legislators and network with othermembers within the association. RallyDay is the perfect event for newmembers to attend and see firsthandwhat TAB does for them and theirbusinesses as well as how yourgovernment relations team advocates onbehalf of the home building industry atthe Capitol.

As in years past, we will have anaddress from an elected official and alegislative update on the South Steps ofthe Capitol. This year, lunch will be onyour own in between your Capitol visits.We will wrap up the day’s festivities andjoin us for a legislative reception at thehistoric Driskill Hotel.

Your support is needed to protect ourentire industry, and TAB asks that youand your local association make thecommitment to travel to Austin onWednesday, February 20 for Rally Day2013. We look forward to you being apart of this special—and effective—legislative event.

If you have any questions about RallyDay 2013, please feel free to contact theoffice at (915) 778-5387

Buildershead forAustin

2 Builders Outlook 2013/1

Since this is my first official article as president I want to let you know how

much I appreciate your support and would like to thank all of those who

attended the installation. It was a really nice event that had a lot class and

some genuine good times. I especially want to thank our sponsors once again

as without them the association couldn’t put an event like this on. The

installation committee did a great job as well so my hats off to Lorraine Huit

and her fine group of ladies: Kathy Carrillo, Kathy Rose, Margaret Adauto,

Kathy Parry and my wife Claudia. Thanks for welcoming us like you did.

The business at hand starts this month with our Spring Home Show. My

thanks to those of you who are displaying your products and services at this

show. It looks to be another success from the numbers and of course the

public loves this event. I will be leading our delegation to Las Vegas for the

International Builders Show later this month and I am aware that several of you

will also be attending. It’s good to have it close by and in such a fun city.

Now, let’s get to why I’m writing this article. I want to remind you of that great

US Army ad where they challenge you to “be ALL you Can be!” I want to do

the same with you, and remind you that your membership needs to be a full

value membership. What I mean is that if you are a member in name only then

you are missing 99% of what your membership can and should be. Why would

anyone look at this opportunity and not take advantage of what it offers?

Simply put it’s up to you. We have a lot of opportunities for you to take

advantage of; sometimes it’s simple like coming to meetings. Other times it

takes a little effort, especially when we ask you to invest your business in our

association. This year my challenge to you is to do exactly that, Be All You Can

Be. You will find it rewarding and you will benefit beyond your expectations. It

might be your way to make new contacts, build your business or find a better

way to do business. You will find out ONLY if you accept the challenge. You

benefit and our association benefits. That’s a beautiful combination and one

that we all know is what you want. And it’s one we need in order to succeed.

See you soon. Happy New Year.

President’s Message |

El Paso Disposal

772-7495

32013/1 Builders Outlook

Edmundo

Dena

President,

El Paso Association

of Builders

Showroom: 2131 Missouri

915 • 533 • 6045 fax • 533• 6096

Thomas R. Brown, Owner

An organization like ours is simply herebecause we have members andsupporters that pay for us. Without ourmembers and support groups we wouldn’texist. Like any volunteer organizationgetting through the last months of acalendar year are often the most difficultin terms of income yet nothing changeswhen it comes to having to pay to stayopen. Like so many small businesses it’sa struggle that no one in managementlooks forward to or is fully prepared for.

In retail you hear about black Friday, yetfew understand the real meaning of thatterm. To most it’s the day that sales forstuff start and it’s when you go out andfind that super-duper deal on electronics,clothing, or just about anything else youcan buy. Yet to the retailer all the wayback to the manufacturer black Friday isthe day that signifies finally earningincome, that is, your business is in “theblack”. So here you have two of retailsstrangest events happening depending onwhat side of the counter you lie in. Buyinga “bargain” or staying in business alldressed up in some dance of death, aspiral that can spin you to bankruptcy nomatter where you stand. For associationslike ours we have a regular “black Friday”every week when we try to figure outexactly how much we money we have tooperate with and how much we need topay out. I can tell you that regardless ofhow much planning you do something is

bound to mess with the plan. ExecutiveOfficers across the land recognize thisand like all adrenaline junkies I supposewe look for the thrill of getting through thecycle. Most survive but others may not beas fortunate. Our economy still has somebig obstacles to overcome and it will beinteresting to see what the new Congresswill do to help. We just don’t need them tohurt us anymore.

As I opened the doors on January 2, Iasked myself what it would take to ensurewe are here next January. It isn’tsomething I do alone as I have anexcellent executive committee that helpsplan and then implement the plan. But ittakes more than just the six of us to bringthe plan to reality and it starts with you asa member or supporter. First andforemost we ask that you keep yourmembership and that you view it as animportant part of your business plan.Secondly we ask that you make plans toadvertise or sponsor in an event orpublication. Third is that you do businesswith a member so that together we cansee a prosperous 2013. Perhaps if weuse discretion as to where and with whomwe spend our money it could go better forall of us.

The fact is that during these last fewyears we cut back on many itemsincluding personnel. Sometimes thosecuts have been too close to the bone andlack of staff creates its own problems.

Doing more with less has taken its toll. Iam guilty of that and understand the needto adjust in order to try a financialcomeback. In the next few months Iexpect that you will see a new face or twocoming to visit you representing us. Webegan that transformation late last yearwhen we brought in a third party salesteam to sell our ads in the memberdirectory. We will continue thatpartnership and look for moreopportunities this year. If you have ideasfor us please bring them forward. I needto hear them and try to figure a way to putthem to use.

We are looking at an ambitious eventschedule and it starts with the SpringHome Show this January 18-20 at theWilliams Convention Center downtown.This event brings out people from the areato visit with and buy services and product.Why wouldn’t you want to be there, right?Our next event will be a spring tour ofhomes, followed by our first golf outingand then more events to enhance bothyour experience and our bottom line.

So hello 2013. Let’s all find a way tomake this year as prosperous as we can.Afterall it’s about the ability to open thatdoor again in 2014.

Perspective |

Ray Adauto,Executive Vice PresidentEPAB

4 Builders Outlook 2013/1

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52013/1 Builders Outlook

6 Builders Outlook 2013/1

The nation's home builders continue to feelmuch better about their industry, but thedramatic gains seen through the summer andfall appear to be moderating.

An industry index measuring home buildersentiment in the single-family market rose twopoints in December, while November's five-point monthly gain was revised lower by onepoint.

The National Association of HomeBuilder's/Wells Fargo Housing Market Indexnow stands at 47; 50 is the line betweenpositive and negative sentiment. The indexstood at 21 in December of 2011.

"Builders across the country are reportingsome of the best sales conditions they've seenin more than five years, with more seriousbuyers coming forward and a shrinkingnumber of vacant and foreclosed propertieson the market," observed NAHB ChairmanBarry Rutenberg in Tuesday's release."However, one thing that is still holding backpotential home sales is the difficulty that manyfamilies are encountering in getting qualifiedfor a mortgage due to today's overly stringentlending standards."

Of the index's three components, currentsales rose two points to 51, pushing intopositive territory for the first time since thehousing crash. Sales expectations over thenext six months, while remaining in thepositive, dropped one point, and buyer trafficrose one point but is still far from positiveterritory at 36.

Regionally, home builder sentiment saw itsbiggest jump in the Northeast, up 12 pointsmonth-to-month. Sentiment rose two points inthe Midwest, but fell two points in the Southand three points in the West. Only in theMidwest are the home builders in solid positiveterritory.

"We believe that a properly balancedagreement will breed confidence in thepolitical system and the U.S. economy, willenable the housing market to continue itsrecovery, and, in turn, will promote broadereconomic growth"

Letter to Obama and Boehner Signed by 18CEOs

December's gains in sentiment are not asdramatic as the jump in November, as somebuilders are likely concerned about thepossibility of going over the so-called "fiscalcliff." Some builders have already reportedlaying off workers and delaying projects,concerned that much-needed capital forconstruction will dry up if a deal cannot bereached by the end of the year.

Last week the CEO's of 18 home buildingcompanies, who collectively build 30 percentof the nation's new homes, sent a letter toPresident Barack Obama and House SpeakerJohn Boehner urging them to avoid the fiscalcliff, even if it means raising taxes on thebuilders:

"We support a comprehensive agreement inWashington to avoid the fiscal cliff thatincludes revenue increases (including tax rateadjustments) together with meaningfulentitlement reforms. We believe that aproperly balanced agreement will breedconfidence in the political system and the U.S.economy, will enable the housing market tocontinue its recovery, and, in turn, will promotebroader economic growth."

The letter was signed by the CEOs ofpublicly traded builders including BeazerHomes, Hovananian Enterprises, KBHome,Lennar, MDC, and Meritage.

By CNBC's Diana Olick

Builders business on the rebound

The Economy

Builders & Buyers Bypass Budget Bullet

Editor’s note: We’d like to welcome Economist ElliotEisenberg as a regular contributor to the Builders Outlook.His wealth of experience on housing has been the model forHBA’s across the country over the past decade. Now inprivate practice Dr. Eisenberg will bring his talent every

month as a special contributor to the Outlook.

The mortgage interestdeduction (MID) cost the USTreasury $88.8 billion in2011, making it the secondlargest tax break forindividuals. That is preciselywhy the Congress has itssights set on it. However,there is much debate abouthow to reduce its costs to theTreasury and by how much.

No matter what happens, reducing the MIDwill lower some house prices. That being said,how the Congress reduces the MID willdetermine how much how many houses losevalue. And since so many of us own a home,sell homes or build homes, the MID will not besingled out for special treatment. Rather, theCongress will cap or phase out the value of alldeductions, and in that way avoid favoring onededuction over another.

While there are several possibleapproaches, based on White House andSenate details of their last-minute deal to avertthe fiscal cliff, the most likely one phases outitemized deductions for households withincomes over $300,000. While at first blushthis may appear to be quite damaging, I thinkhomeowners, realtors, builders, and the entirehousing industry have all dodged a bullet andshould sleep well for quite a while, or at leastuntil the Congress reopens debate on the taxcode sometime in the future.

Phasing out Schedule A deductions forcouples with incomes over $300,000 limits theimpact to buyers of only the most expensivehouses. For example, with a 10% down-payment on a $1,500,000 house, mortgage

interest would be $54,000/year, property taxeswould average $16,500, and insurance wouldbe about $8,000, totaling $78,500 in annualhousing-related expenses. To finance thatmortgage, the $78,500 should ideally not bemore than 30% of gross income, which meansqualifying requires having an annual income ofroughly $260,000; comfortably below theincome level at which deductions start phasingout.

That being said, how much will a housevalued at $2,000,000 decline? By very little!In theory it will fall by the one-time lump-sumamount necessary to compensate buyers forthe new income taxes they will pay due to theirbeing at or above the phaseout threshold.With interest rates currently at 4%, this means,and trust me on this, every $1,000 in addedincome taxes reduces the house price by($1,000/4% or) $25,000. However, in reality,these impacts will be dramatically mitigated bytax avoidance strategies available to the verywealthy including systematically larger down-payments, cash purchases, corporatepurchases and so on.

In short, few homeowners will be impactedby the new tax treatment of deductionsincluding the MID. For households withincomes below $300,000, there are noimpacts stemming from this change and forthose with higher incomes, the impacts willlargely be mitigated by tax avoidancebehavior. At worst, only homes worth wellover a million dollars will be adverselyaffected.

With huge deficits as far as the eye can see,the tax treatment of deductions is sure tocontinue to change and evolve. Enjoy thedebate, but be aware that next time you maybe on the menu.Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is President of GraphsandLaughs,LLC and can be reached at [email protected] daily 70 word economics and policy blog can be seen at

www.econ70.com.

Elliot Eisenberg

Home Builders,Utilities HailReconsideration ofEPA StormwaterDischarge Rule

In a victory for the environment,affordable housing and the nation’senergy infrastructure, the NationalAssociation of Home Builders

(NAHB), Utility Water Act Group(UWAG) and Wisconsin BuildersAssociation have settled alongstanding lawsuit against theEnvironmental Protection Agencyafter the agency agreed to withdrawthe numeric limit it developed tocontrol stormwater runoff fromconstruction sites and to pursueadditional improvements to the 2009rule.

The lawsuit had noted that theEPA’s numeric limit would have coststakeholders up to $10 billion a yearin attempts to comply – and thatcoming up with a number that wouldwork across all geographic areas andsoil types would not be possible.

NAHB and UWAG have beenclosely involved in EPA’s efforts todevelop appropriate controls forconstruction and developmentindustry stormwater discharge formore than 15 years. For UWAG, thefocus has been on the particularimpacts of EPA’s rule on linear gasand electric utility projects, such asthe construction of new transmissionand distribution lines. For the homebuilders, the focus has been on the

challenge associated with meeting anumeric limit across all constructionsites.

“NAHB supports responsibledevelopment and the goals of theClean Water Act. We are relievedthat the agency is taking a common-sense approach to this rulemaking,and we will continue to work withstate and federal regulators to keepour waterways clean,” said NAHBChairman Barry Rutenberg, a homebuilder from Gainesville, Fla.

Ray Butts of NextEra Energy, Chairof UWAG’s Policy Committee,echoed Rutenberg’s comments,adding: “We appreciate the agency’sefforts to work with all of us toaddress specific problems in theunderlying rule that – if unresolved –would have led to significant andunnecessary cost, engineering andenergy impacts with no appreciableenvironmental benefit.”

In addition to withdrawing thenumeric limits, EPA has agreed toclarify the non-numeric portion of therule so that land developers, permitwriters and inspectors betterunderstand what measures are

required to help protect the nation’swaterways.

In December 2009, under courtorder, the agency finalized EffluentLimitation Guidelines (ELGs) for theconstruction and developmentindustry to establish the minimumtechnology required to control theimpact of stormwater runoff. EPAestablished both numeric limits andbest management practices, such assilt fences, for certain activeconstruction sites.

NAHB, UWAG and the Wisconsinbuilders challenged the rule shortlyafter it was issued. Pursuant to theparties’ settlement agreement, EPAhas agreed to sign a notice ofproposed rulemaking to amend its2009 rule by April 15 and agreed totake final action on the proposed ruleby Feb. 28, 2014.

“NAHB will continue to educate itsmembers about the importance ofregulatory compliance as they buildnew homes,” Rutenberg said. “At thesame time, we will remain vigilantabout the costs of compliance andhelp ensure that the money is wellspent – because the cost is reflectedin the price of a new home.”

Butts noted that this is just one ofseveral significant EPA proceedingsaffecting the electric power industry.“We remain hopeful that the parties’common-sense solution here will bea bellwether of things to come in theagency’s other rulemakings.”

“This settlement is a win for theenvironment and for the recoveringeconomy,” said Wisconsin BuildersAssociation Executive Vice PresidentJerry Deschane. “The proposednumeric limits were a ‘one-size-fits-nowhere’ approach that would havecost a fortune to implement andwould not have improved waterquality. Common-sense bestmanagement practices andunderstandable regulations are thebest path to achieving the goals ofthe Clean Water Act and maintaininghousing affordability.”

72013/1 Builders Outlook

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Builders utlook on the scene |

In 2012, the El Paso Association of Builders commemorated our

65th anniversay. The year was jam packed with events and celebra-

tions. Here, we pay a final tribute to another historical year at EPAB.

The year that was 2012

2013/1

List of Improving

Housing Markets

Expands to 242 in

JanuaryIn the latest sign of a burgeoning

recovery in U.S. housing markets, the

number of metropolitan areas on the

National Association of Home

Builders/First American Improving

Markets Index (IMI) rose for a fifth

consecutive month to 242 in January.

This is up from 201 markets listed as

improving in December, and includes

entrants from 48 states and the District

of Columbia.

The IMI identifies metro areas that

have shown improvement from their

respective troughs in housing permits,

employment and house prices for at

least six consecutive months. A total of

47 new metros were added to the list

and six were dropped from it this month.

Newly added metros include such

geographically diverse locations as Los

Angeles, Calif.; Auburn, Ala.; Des

Moines, Iowa; Nashville, Tenn.;

Richmond, Va.; and Cleveland, Ohio.

“We created the improving markets

list in September of 2011 to spotlight

individual metros where -- contrary to

the national headlines -- housing

markets were on the mend,” noted

NAHB Chairman Barry Rutenberg, a

home builder from Gainesville, Fla.

“Today, 242 out of 361 metros

nationwide appear on that list, including

representatives from almost every state

in the country. The story is no longer

about exceptions to the rule, but about

the growing breadth of the housing

recovery even as overly strict mortgage

requirements hold back the pace of

improvement.”

“The IMI has almost doubled in the

past two months as stronger demand

during prime home buying season

boosted prices across a broader number

of metropolitan areas,” noted NAHB

Chief Economist David Crowe. “Similar

home price gains, and hence the IMI,

may be tempered in the future as we

see data from typically slower months

for home sales.”

“Potential home buyers should be

encouraged by the positive momentum

in home prices, permitting and

employment that is increasingly evident

in not just isolated housing markets, but

a broadening swath of the country,”

added Kurt Pfotenhauer, vice chairman

of First American Title Insurance

Company.

The IMI is designed to track housing

markets throughout the country that are

showing signs of improving economic

health. The index measures three sets

of independent monthly data to get a

mark on the top improving Metropolitan

Statistical Areas. The three indicators

that are analyzed are employment

growth from the Bureau of Labor

Statistics, housing price appreciation

from Freddie Mac and single-family

housing permit growth from the U.S.

Census Bureau. NAHB uses the latest

available data from these sources to

generate a list of improving markets. A

metropolitan area must see

improvement in all three measures for at

least six consecutive months following

those measures’ respective troughs

before being included on the improving

markets list.

A complete list of all 242 metropolitan

areas currently on the IMI, and separate

breakouts of metros newly added to or

dropped from the list in January, is

available at www.nahb.org/imi. A state-

by-state listing of metro areas on the list

is also available at:

www.nahb.org/improvingmarkets.

10 Builders Outlook 2013/1

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HousingStarts Slip,Permits RiseIn November

Following an above-trend rate of

production in October, nationwide

housing starts slipped 3.0 percent to

a seasonally adjusted annual rate of

861,000 units in November,

according to newly released data

from HUD and the U.S. Census

Bureau. Meanwhile, permits for new

construction rose to their strongest

level in more than four years, with a

3.6 percent gain to 899,000 units.

“Many builders have reported

improving conditions in their local

housing markets and are increasingly

optimistic about the spring buying

season, but they are being very

careful not to get ahead of demand,”

observed Barry Rutenberg, chairman

of the National Association of Home

Builders (NAHB) and a home builder

from Gainesville, Fla. “Meanwhile,

tight credit conditions are still the

chief obstacle to a quicker recovery.”

“The starts report for November

reflects a readjustment to a more

sustainable level of production

following significant gains in the

previous two months,” said NAHB

Chief Economist David Crowe. “That

said, starts in this quarter are still

running well ahead of the third

quarter, and we are on track for a

projected 25 percent improvement in

housing production for all of 2012.

Moreover, the fact that issuance of

building permits hit its fastest rate

since July of 2008 in November is

indicative of the continued, modest

growth that we expect to see in new-

home construction through 2013.”

Single-family housing starts

declined 4.1 percent to a seasonally

adjusted annual rate of 565,000 units

in November, while multifamily starts

edged down 1.0 percent, to 296,000

units.

Regionally, combined single- and

multifamily starts activity was mixed

in November. While the Midwest and

South posted respective gains of 3.3

percent and 2.9 percent, the

Northeast and West posted

respective declines of 5.2 percent

and 19.2 percent.

Permit issuance, which can be an

indicator of future building activity,

rose 3.6 percent to a seasonally

adjusted, annual rate of 899,000

units in November. This was due to a

10.6 percent gain to 334,000 units on

the multifamily side, as single-family

permits held virtually unchanged for

the month, at 565,000 units.

Permits rose in all but one region

in November. Gains of 8.1 percent,

2.9 percent and 5.9 percent were

registered in the Midwest, South and

West, respectively, while a 6.2

percent decline was registered in the

Northeast.

ted escobedo915•820•2800

[email protected]

12 Builders Outlook 2013/1

Expert Advice

As part of the fiscal cliff rescue

legislation Congress renewed the

Builder Tax Credit in Section 408 of

the American Taxpayer Relief Act on

Dec 31. The tax credit, which

expired back in 2011, has been

retroactively restored and extended

until Dec. 31, 2013. Back to reality,

now that everyone had time to rest,

well... if you can say that about the

holidays.

Nevertheless it’s always nice to go

thru this season with family and

friends. But it’s also nice to plan for

the New Year, new projects, new

goals, and objectives, new

challenges to overcome. As always,

I will be writing about energy, and

the extension of the Energy

Efficiency Tax Credit. It expired back

in December 2011 but now provides

a $2,000 Tax Credit for builders that

meet a threshold of 50% reduction

of Heating and Cooling load on new

homes.

The main intent is to encourage

builders to use more energy efficient

practices while building their new

homes. With this Federal Incentive

everybody wins; the builder receives

an incentive which offsets the extra

cost of building energy efficient

homes; the home buyers get a more

comfortable energy efficient home;

suppliers are able to sell a few extra

products or energy efficient

upgrades from their standard

offering; and regardless of your

interest on Climate Change a more

energy efficient home also does its

part to reduce its carbon footprint

thru energy efficiency.

How to qualify for the Tax Credit?

It’s very straight forward: if you are

already doing Energy Star Version 3

or ECO Home you are a step closer

to qualify for the Tax Credit. This

doesn’t mean that just by being

Energy Star rated you already

qualify, no, this is just a good start.

In reality they are a little bit different,

but they go thru the similar process

by using the HERS qualification

process and testing, with a focus of

reducing the Heating and Cooling

load of the entire homes by following

certain parameters that I can assist

you achieve. I have to say the Tax

Credit is not something hard to

achieve, but energy efficiency

upgrades need to be implemented

with a goal of doing it thru the most

cost effective strategy.

In summary if you build a home

that’s 50% more energy efficient on

heating and cooling you can get

$2000 back in your pocket; if you

build a manufactured home that’s

30% more energy efficient, you get

$1000. You don’t have to be a

licensed builder to earn it; the tax

credit (which is as good as cash,

versus a deduction) goes to anyone

with a financial interest in the

building of the home. It could be

anyone who builds and then sells or

leases the residence, whether that’s

a homeowner, a design/build firm, or

a production builder. The one

change is the baseline for the

measurement of energy efficiency- it

used to be the 2003 International

Energy Conservation Code (IECC)

but now has been changed to the

2006 IECC. Since the worst home

you can legally build (according to

code) is better than the 2006 IECC,

you should definitely look into

qualifying to meet the Tax Credit

parameters. If you would like to

learn more about how to qualify your

homes, please contact us at

[email protected] or call me at

915-613-4168

Energy Efficiency Tax Credits are BACK…

years

E L P A S O

BUILDERSA S S O C I A T I O N O F

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Reserve your advertising space in

the 2013 edition of

DREAM HOMEThe El Paso Association of Builders

exclusive magazine featuring the absolute

very best in custom home building and

luxury living.

Call Margaret today at 778-5387

2-10 Home Buyers Warranty

Border Solar

C & L Plumbing Supply

Cj Homes LLC.

Classic American Homes

CqC Testing And Engineering, LLC

El Paso Truss

El Paso Winnelson

First National Bank

GmF Custom Homes, LP

Home Builders Insurance Services

Interceramic Tile & Stone Gallery

jan-Car Inc.

Kings Aire

massey johnson Associates

Painted Dunes Desert Golf Course

Passage Supply

Patriot mortgage

Pella Windows

Performance Glass & Aluminum

Punto Living LLC

R.E. Welch Contractor

Rebath of El Paso/Las Cruces

Sarabias Blue Sanitation

Senercon

Teachers Federal Credit Union

Vision Consultants

Vista Serena Homes, LLC

W. Bennett johnson

Western Wholesale

Winton/ Flair Homes

Membership News

Thanks to our

JANUARY

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132013/1 Builders Outlook

www.elpasobuilders.com www.epbuilders.org

UPCOMING EVENTS |

RENEWALS |

JANUARY 18-20

SPRING HOME SHOW

CIVIC CENTER

JANUARY 18-23

NAHB MEETINGS

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA

JANUARY 22-24

INTERNATIONAL BUILDERS’

SHOW

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA

FEBRUARY 14

11:00 BOARD MEETING

12:00 GENERAL MEETING

EL PASO CLUB

CHASE BANK BLDG.

(DOWNTOWN)

FEBRUARY 19-20

RALLY DAY

AUSTIN, TX

FEBRUARY 21-23

TAB MEETINGS

AUSTIN, TX

For the latest updates &

event information, visit:elpasobuilders.com

It’s 2013 and it seems like last yearflew by. I know that when it came tothe work we do at the association theyear was at times difficult andchallenging but never boring. I wouldlike to think that 2013 will be a year oftransformation and of recommitmentfrom all of you. I can’t begin to stresshow important it will be for each oneof you to be committed to the goalsand financial health of the associationas we begin our 66th year in El Paso.

While tradition plays into my request Iwant to issue a challenge to thenewer and younger members of ourassociation. I challenge each of youto make 2013 better than last yearand work to make 2014 better than2013. This is after all an associationthat has its roots in toughness, withsensitivity to a majority whose voiceis often not heard. It will require workand commitment on your part and itstarts with attending meetings,getting involved in events, and gettingan ad in the Outlook. Since you havea copy in your hands or on yourscreen look at who advertises andask yourself why are they doing this.

As a board member I’m looking atthe financials for this organization ona very regular basis. It is afterall abusiness that struggles like any other,and in some cases can do little about

that struggle. As Associate memberswe are holding a key to unlock thepotential for this place right in ourhands. It’s called advertising andmarketing. Your business like minehas a line item for advertising andmany times I rely on my suppliers andvendors to help me with thatadvertising. What I have learned fromRay is that I need to look atadvertising in the associationpublications for several reasons: it istargeted to readers who are bothindividual and bulk buyers; it is microtargeted rather than shotgunadvertising, hoping to hit somethingby mere chance; it is a good buywhen you consider you get full colorads in print and on line; it benefits theassociation by making money for theassociation. Fact is that withoutadvertising revenue from less than 30

members this association could’vefolded over the last few years. Inever looked at our advertising insuch a way but have come to realizehow important it is for the EPAB andhow much you can benefit by placingan ad.

Over the next few months you maysee new faces approaching you tobuy advertising in the Outlook, thedirectory, Build Book, or Su CasaNueva. Don’t get confused on thelast one as we have been told apublication with no affiliation to theEPAB has begun marketing in ElPaso. They do not belong to orprovide income to the association. Ifyou have any questions call theEPAB office to ask. And while youlook at what you should do thinkabout advertising right here right now.

14 Builders Outlook 2013/1

Sam ShallenbergerWestern Wholesale Supply

Associates Council

Builders utlook on the scene |January BODMeeting & TrainingThe first meeting of the 2013 Boardof Directors was held on January 10at the association conference andlearning center. New board memberswere introduced and some whocouldn’t attend the installation wereinstalled by the executive committee.The board reviewed financials andalso approved the 2013 budget.Following the meeting the board tookpart in an orientation designed to helpboard directors better understand theirposition in the association, what toexpect, and what responsibilities theyhave been entrusted with. The next board/general meeting willtake place on Valentine’s day,February 14 at the El Paso Club. Callthe association for information.

� execuTive oFFicerS

edmundo Dena – President

Accent Homes

Frank Torres – vice President

GMF Custom Homes

edgar montiel – Secretary/Treasurer

Palo Verde Homes

Sam Shallenberger – Associates chair

Western Wholesale

Frank Arroyos- immediate Past President

Cisco Homes

ray Adauto – executive vice President

El Paso Association of Builders

� couNciL/commiTTee cHAirS

Associates council

Sam Shallenberger

Build PAc

Randy Bowling

Desert Green Building council

Javier Ruiz

Land use council

Sal Masoud

Young Designer Award

John Chaney

remodelers council

Rudy Guel

membership retention

Mike Santamaria, Greg Bowling

Finance committee

Edgar Montiel

Women’s council

Lorraine Huit

� ADviSorY To THe BoArD

J. Crawford Kerr, Attorney, Firth, Johnston

& Martinez

� BoArD oF DirecTorS

Juanita Garcia, Icon Custom Builders

Samira Gonzalez, Edwards Homes

Walter Lujan, Dawco Construction

Carlos Villalobos, Pointe Homes

Don Rassette, Rassette Homes

Beverly Clevenger, Automated Division 6 Builders

Frank Spencer, Aztec Contractors

Kathy Parry, Hunt Communities

Sal Masoud, Del Rio Engineering

Robert L. Foster,

Southwest Land Development Services

Leti Navarette, Custom Dream Homes

Linda Troncoso, TR-Engineering

Lance VanDeman, Hub International

John Chaney, Passage Supply

Joe Bernal, El Paso Employee Benefits

Ken Wade, El Paso Building Materials

Ruben Orquiz, MTI Ready Mix

Kathy Carrillo, Pioneer Bank

Henry Tinajero, West Star Bank

Paul Zacour, Zacour & Associates

Chuck Gabriel, Carpets West

Ted Escobedo, Snappy Publishing

Lorraine Huit, Cardel Design

Javier Ruiz, Border Solar & Senercon

2012 Builder member of The Year

Frank Arroyos

Cisco Homes

2012 Pat cox Award

Mike Santamaria

Mountain Vista Homes

2012 Associate of The Year

Sam Shallenberger

Western Wholesale Supply

John Schatzman Award

Hunt Companies

Honorary Life members

Rudy Guel

Brad Roe

Cliff Anthes

Wayne Grinnell

Chester Lovelady

Don Henderson

Anna Gil

Past Presidents

committed to Serve

ePAB mission Statement:

The El Paso Association of Builders is a

federated professional organization representing

the home building industry, committed to

enhancing the quality of life in our community by

providing affordable homes of excellence and

value.

The El Paso Association of Builders is a

501C(6) trade organization.

© 2013 Builder’s Outlook

is published and distributed for the

El Paso Association of Builders

by Snappy Publishing

240 Thunderbird • Suite C

El Paso • Texas • 79912 915-820-2800

6046 Surety Dr. El Paso, TX 79905

915-778-5387 • Fax: 915-772-3038

Greg Bowling

Kelly Sorenson

Mark Dyer

Mike Santamaria

John Cullers

Randy Bowling

Doug Schwartz

Robert Baeza

Bobby Bowling, IV

Rudy Guel

Anna Gil

Bradley Roe

Bob Bowling, III

E. H. Baeza

Hershel Stringfield

� TAB STATe DirecTorS

Doug Borrett, Karam Co., Life Director

Randy Bowling, Tropicana Homes

� NATioNAL DirecTorS

Bobby Bowling IV.

Demetrio Jimenez

NATioNAL ASSociATioN oF

Home BuiLDerS

(800) 368-5242

TexAS ASSociATioN oF

BuiLDerS

(800)252-3625

www.elpasobuilders.com www.epbuilders.org

Builders utlook