building the electron economy
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Building the Electron EconomyTRANSCRIPT
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Building the Electron Economy
Earth Week
April 21, 2009
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Three Problems - 2030
• Peak oil
• Climate change
• Energy equity
We have less than 20 years to solve and address these problems
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Oil Production – Reserves
Data from ‘The Inevitable Peaking of World Oil Production’, Hirsch, 2005
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Ice Cores – Story of Vostok
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Vostok Ice Core Data•A near perfect correlation between CO2, temperature, and sea level•For every one ppm CO2, sea level rises 1 meter, temp rises .05 C (global)•Process takes 100 years to add 1 ppm CO2, and reach thermal equilibrium
This is not just a correlation, this is a complex and dynamic process, with multiple inputs. A biogeochemical thermostat. Touching one input affects all other inputs, and increases in temperature becomes a further feedback and multiplier of these inputs.
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Earth Out of Balance
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20050428/
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Accelerating Change
• Heat storms• Droughts• Storm intensity• Fires / duration• Ice quakes
• Methane release• Sea ice extent• pH of the ocean• Pest migration• Sea level rise
Ecosystem degradation, loss of biodiversity, failure of ecosystem services
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One Solution – One Vision
• No petroleum in 2030
• It’s a 12 step program!
• We made a bad decision
• And we need a new vision– A world not built around petrol– A world not built around carbon
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Vision the Electron Economy
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A Subsystems Approach
• Renewable energy• Distribution systems• Smart energy• Energy efficiency• LEED / green building
• Electric vehicles• Alternative fuels• Batteries / fuel cells• Urban planning• GHG sequestration
Smart energy Smart cities
Smart citizens
Smart policy
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A New Energy Economy
• $1 - 2 trillion in solar and wind energy• $1 trillion in a new power grid• $2.5 trillion in fuel saving cars
– $1 trillion in new electric motor and battery technology for cars and other appliances
• Smart energy for the electron economy – a melding of the Internet and ‘the grid’
• This is a once in a lifetime opportunity!
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Building a Solar Economy
• Solar power is a primary, not alternative energy
• 25% of electricity could be generated by solar in 2025
• Solar brings true energy independence from carbon
• It requires a commitment, not just an investment of $s
• Research in newer thin film technology shows promise Our Solar Power Future – The US Photovoltaics Industry
Roadmap Through 2030 and beyond – published in 2005
http://www.solarelectricpower.org/
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Wind Power – Real Power
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IntelliGrid™ - Smart Grid
http://intelligrid.epri.com/
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A Real Electric Vehicle
http://www.teslamotors.com/
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An Apollo Program?
• We’re building it!
– Vision
– Commitment
– Plan and a process
– To build and support a team
– To make our vision a reality
• We can do this in 20 years! http://apolloalliance.org/
Energy Equity – 5 million jobs
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How Much Electricity?Americans drive 8 billion miles a day using 400 million gallons of gasoline VMT = 8 * 10^9
To convert gasoline (VMT) miles to electric vehicle miles traveled (EVMT) - an electric vehicle mile traveled (EVMT) requires 0.25 – 0.3 KwHrs per mile
Multiply 8 * 10^9 miles by 0.3 KwHr per EVMT need ~2.5 billion KwHrs a day
Is that a big number? We use ~ 10 billion KwHrs electricity each day
What if we were 20 to 25% more efficient with industrial, commercial and residential electricity?
We would save 0.25 * ~ 10 * 10^9 KwHrs => ~ 2.5 billion KwHrs saved – each day!
What we are wasting in inefficient use of electricity could become the electromotive force (EMF) for a new transportation system