buildings sector working group · 9/26/2013 · technology assumptions updates – distributed...

www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

Buildings Sector Working Group

Erin Boedecker, Buildings Analysis Team Leader Owen Comstock Behjat Hojjati Kevin Jarzomski David Peterson Steve Wade

September 26, 2013

AEO2014 Preliminary Results

For discussion purposes only

Not for citation

Overview

2

• Residential projects

– RECS update

– Housing stock formation and

decay

– Lighting model

– ENERGY STAR homes

benchmarking

– Weather elasticities

• Commercial projects

– Major end-use capacity factors

– Data center servers

– ENERGY STAR buildings

– Hurdle rate floor

• Both sectors

– Usual annual updates

– Miscellaneous end-use

technology assumptions updates

– Distributed generation

• Contract reports

• Changes in release cycles

– AEO and IEO

Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary

Results, September 26, 2013

Residential results


Results, September 26, 2013 3


Not for citation

Macro: slower household growth expected



• Slower population growth (now 0.7% CAGR; was 0.9%)

• Slower household growth

• Housing starts now based on macro module output for entire

projection

• Decay rates: what percent of this year’s stock survives into

next year?

NEW OLD

Single family .997 .996

Multi-family .995 .999

Mobile homes .966 .976


Not for citation

What this means for, say, mobile homes



4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

2005 2040

stock of mobile homes (MAM and RDM)

millions

AEO2013

was

assuming

too many

mobile

homes

survive

But now it’s

better for

AEO2014

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

2005 2040

stock of mobile homes (MAM)

millions

Macro

module

output went

down from

AEO2013 to

AEO2014


Not for citation

2009 RECS: Smaller share of single family

households



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2009 housing stock by region and building type

millions of homes

AEO2013 AEO2014

single family multifamily mobile

homes

North

east

Midwest

South

West


Not for citation

Base year end use composition affects projections (major fuels)



0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

2009 electricity (delivered)

quads

space

heating

space

cooling

water

heating

kitchen &

laundry

lighting

TVs & PCs

other

AEO2013

AEO2014

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0

2009 natural gas

quads

space

heating

water

heating

other

cooking

AEO2013

AEO2014

Source: EIA, ref2014.d092413a PRELIMINARY RESULTS / NOT FOR CITATION


Not for citation

Base year end use composition affects projections (minor fuels)



0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60

2009 distillate fuel

quads

space

heating

water

heating

2009 liquefied petroleum gas

quads space

heating

water

heating

cooking

other

AEO2013

AEO2014

AEO2013

AEO2014



Not for citation

Lighting module updates



• Lighting projections now driven completely by input file

specifications

– Flexible number of lighting end uses

– Hours of use bins available for all end uses

• Redefined lighting end use categories

– AEO 2013: general service, reflector, linear fluorescent, torchieres

– AEO 2014: general service, reflector, linear fluorescent, exterior

• Data updates

– Reduced cost of halogen bulbs meeting EISA efficacy requirements

– Added LED alternative to linear fluorescents


Not for citation

Lighting projections reflect expanded LED availability in later

years



delivered lighting consumption

quads

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2013

AEO2014

Wider availability of LED

technologies

Higher CFL shares in 2009



Not for citation

Residential electricity consumption higher in near term



delivered electricity consumption

quads


4.4

4.6

4.8

5.0

5.2

5.4

5.6

5.8

6.0

6.2

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2013

AEO2014

2012


Not for citation

Residential natural gas consumption lower in near term



natural gas consumption

quads


4.0

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

5.0

5.2

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2013

AEO2014

2012


Not for citation

Petroleum fuels also lower than AEO2013



0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

2005 2015 2025 2035

AEO2013

AEO2014

2012

propane consumption

quads

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

2005 2015 2025 2035

AEO2013

AEO2014

2012

distillate fuel oil consumption

quads



Not for citation

Electricity prices higher; natural gas similar

14

$2012 per million Btu $2012 per million Btu

Residential Commercial


Results, September 26, 2013

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2005 2015 2025 2035

AEO2013

AEO2014

AEO2014

AEO2013 natural gas

electricity

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2005 2015 2025 2035

AEO2013

AEO2014

AEO2014

AEO2013

natural gas

electricity


Turning to the commercial sector …




Not for citation

Commercial floorspace virtually unchanged from AEO2013



total floorspace

billion square feet

70

80

90

100

110

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2013

AEO2014



Not for citation

Lower commercial capacity factors reduce potential savings

from efficient purchases



stock efficiency of natural gas water heaters

Btu out/ Btu in

0.76

0.80

0.84

0.88

0.92

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2013

AEO2014



Not for citation

Data centers server installed base grows at the rate of service

output



non-PC office equipment consumption

quads

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2013

AEO2014



Not for citation

ENERGY STAR floorspace accounts for 1.9% of total

commercial floorspace in 2012



total floorspace

billion square feet


65

70

75

80

85

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

ENERGY STAR Floorspace


Not for citation

Commercial electricity consumption higher than in AEO2013



delivered electricity consumption

quads

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2013

AEO2014

2012



Not for citation

Commercial natural gas consumption lower than in AEO2013



natural gas consumption

quads

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2013

AEO2014

2012


Other projects




Not for citation

Miscellaneous Electric Loads (MELs) Update



Commercial MELs Residential MELs

Distribution Transformers Dehumidifiers

Data Center Servers Set-top Boxes, All

IT Equipment (non-data center) Modems & Routers

Water Treatment/Distribution External Power Supplies

PC – Desktops Non-Computer Rechargeable Electronics

PC – Laptops Ceiling Fans

PC – Monitors Televisions

Kitchen Ventilation DVD

Lab Refrigerators/Freezers PCs, Laptop

Medical Imaging Equipment PCs, Desktop

Video Displays Monitors (i.e. desktop PC monitors)

Video Boards Audio Equipment

Security Systems Portable Electric Spas

Pools/Pool Pumps

Security Systems, Home


Not for citation

Televisions consumed 70 TWh in 2011, but efficiency is

improving with the changeover to LCDs; however increases in

typical size counter some efficiency gains.



“Analysis and Representation of Miscellaneous Electric Loads in NEMS”, Navigant Consulting, September 2013.

2011 2015 2020 2030 2040

Installed Base (000s) 355,000 364,000 388,000 444,000 501,000

Active 127 95 83 69 62

Off/Standby 1.62 1.13 0.49 0.40 0.4

Active 1,460 1460 1460 1460 1460

Off/Standby 7300 7300 7300 7300 7300

UEC kWh/yr 197 150 130 100 94

AEC TWh/yr 70.0 54.6 50.4 44.4 47.1

Power Draw (W)

Annual Usage (hrs)

This category includes:

• Cathode Ray Tubes (CRT) – 47% of installed base

• Liquid Crystal Displays (LCD) – 42% of installed base

• Plasma – 11% of installed base

Major equipment contract reports now available online:

http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/buildings/equipcosts/




Not for citation

Distributed generation



• Update to latest installed capacity for PV

• Potential refinement of current and near-term PV costs

(Tracking the Sun VI and joint LBNL/NREL presentation)


Not for citation

Changes in release cycles for EIA’s AEO and IEO



• To focus more resources on rapidly changing energy

markets and how they might evolve over the next few

years, the U.S. Energy Information Administration is

revising the schedule and approach for production of the

International Energy Outlook (IEO) and the Annual

Energy Outlook (AEO).

• Under this approach, a full edition of the IEO and AEO

will be produced in alternating years and a shorter

edition of each will be completed in the “interim” years.


Not for citation

AEO and IEO cycles for 2014 and 2015



2014 2015

International

Energy

Outlook

Interim Edition in mid 2014:

• focus on the liquids projection

as used in AEO2014

• summary tables

• short analysis

Full Edition in the spring

Annual

Energy

Outlook

Full Edition in the spring:

• analysis of energy issues

• many alternative scenarios

Interim Edition in late 2014 or early

2015:

• Reference

• Low / High Economic Growth

• Low / High Oil Price cases

• short discussions

For more information



U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov

Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo

International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo

Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer

Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

http://www.eia.gov/

http://www.eia.gov/steo

http://www.eia.gov/aeo

http://www.eia.gov/ieo

http://www.eia.gov/mer

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

buildings sector working group · 9/26/2013 · technology assumptions updates – distributed...

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