bullion weekly technicals 27112012

7/29/2019 Bullion Weekly Technicals 27112012

1/18

For important disclosure information please see the end of the document.

Technical Analysis Research

Axel Rudolph

+44 207 475 [email protected]

Technical OutlookBullion Weekly Technicals

Tuesday, 27 November 2012


2/18

27 November 2012 1

Technical Outlook

Market Short term view (1-3 weeks)

Gold: Remains bullish and has another stab at reaching the 1775/1800 resistance area.

Gold in Euros: Remains on track to soon make a new all-time high; targets the 1395/1400 zone and 1421.65.

Gold in Swiss Franc: Still targets the 1650 region and should eventually exceed its all-time high at 1680.20.

Silver: Is seen heading back towards its 35.47 October peak.

Gold/Silver Ratio: Remains bearish and is fast approaching the 50.98/84 support area.

Palladium: Once again has the psychological 700 region in its sights.

Platinum: Flirts with the 55 day moving average at 1619.32 whilst bullish momentum persists.

Precious metals advances have further to run


3/18

27 November 2012 2

Silver, Platinum, Gold and Palladium

Precious metals are benefitting from a second wind and are bullish again

Platinum +15.31%

Palladium +1.76%

Gold +11.67%

Silver +22.55%

2012 performance to date


4/18

27 November 2012 3

Gold - Daily Chart

Gold Daily Chart

Remains bullish and has another stab at reaching the 1775/1800 resistance area

Gold has now risen above the 55 day moving average at1742.79 and the 1739.09 9 November high as previouslyforecast.

Further upside targets are seen between the 11 Octoberhigh at 1775.21 and the psychological 1800 level. Thelatter region is where the gold price stalled on threeseparate occasions in the past year.

Once overcome the 1900 region and the all-time higharound the 1921.50 level will be back in play.

We will retain our bullish view while the current Novemberlow at 1672.50 underpins.

Support above this level can be seen at 1739.09/1737.17(9 November high and late September low) as well as

around the mid-November 1705.66 low and around theminor psychological 1700 mark. Only if unexpectedly fallenthrough, would our short term bullish view be neutralised.

Support Resistance 1-Week View 1-Month View

1739.1/1737.2 1775.21/1788

1705.7/1698.5 1796.3/1803.3

55 day moving average is at 1742.79


5/18

27 November 2012 4

Gold Weekly Chart

Is heading back up towards the 1800 region

Gold - Weekly Chart

55 week moving average has again held


6/1827 November 2012 5

Gold in Euros - Daily Chart

Gold in Euros Daily Chart

Remains on track to make a new all-time high; targets the 1395/1400 zone and 1421.65

Gold in Euros recovery off last weeks 1331.16 low looksto be impulsive and should soon take it to above its1367.18 current November high towards the September all-time high at 1389.04.

Once the current all-time high has been bettered, the 1395vertical 15 X 3 daily Point & Figure target as well as thepsychological 1400 mark will be in focus.

Further up the 61.8% Fibonacci extension of the May-to-October rise, projected higher from the current Novemberlow, comes in at 1421.65.

Minor support is seen at the 1336.67 2 November high aswell as at last weeks 1331.16 low.


1335.1/1331.2 1355.7&1367.2

1311.6/1303.9 1382.4/1389.1

All-time high was made at 1389.04


7/18

27 November 2012 6

Gold in Swiss Francs - Daily Chart

Gold in Euros Daily Chart

Still targets the 1650 region and should eventually exceed its all-time high at 1680.20

Gold in Swiss Franc is recovering from last weeks low at1603.32 and should soon retest its current November highat 1648.79.

Above it lurks the all-time high at 1680.20 which remains infocus. This will be the case while the gold price in SwissFrancs stays above its early November low at 1573.93.

Above it support can be seen around the 2 November1613.42 high and at last weeks 1603.32 low.

Once 1680.20 has been overcome, the psychological 1700region will be in play and also the 61.8% Fibonacciextension of the May-to-October rise, projected higher fromthe current November low, at 1721.50.

We will retain our bullish outlook while trading above the

current November trough at 1573.93.


1613.4/1603.3 1632.7&1648.8

1586.5/1573.9 1665.3&1680.2

All-time high is seen at 1680.20


8/18

27 November 2012 7

Silver - Daily Chart

Silver Daily Chart

Is seen heading back towards its 35.47 October peak

The silver price is breaking through the 2011-12 resistanceline at 33.93 and has practically reached the 78.6%Fibonacci retracement of the October-to-November declineat 34.43 which caps it for now.

Once 34.43 has been bettered, the October peak at 35.47will be in the firing line and then the minor psychological36.00 level.

Immediate upside pressure will be maintained while abovethe 55 day moving average at 33.31.

Further minor support can be seen between the 14November high at 32.97 and the 32.73 1 November high.

While the mid-November low at 32.03 underpins, we willretain our bullish forecast.

Because of recent upside pressure we have changed ourmedium term forecast back to being bullish.


33.62/58&33.31 34.43&35.16

32.79/73 35.47&36.00

78.6% Fibonacci retracement is seen at 34.43


9/18

27 November 2012 8

Silver - Weekly Chart

Silver Weekly Chart

Is seen breaking through the 2011-12 resistance line at 33.93

2011-12 resistance line is at 33.93


10/18

27 November 2012 9

Gold/Silver Ratio - Daily Chart

Gold/Silver Ratio Daily Chart

Remains bearish and is fast approaching the 50.98/84 support area

The gold/silver ratios descent is ongoing with it gettingever closer to the 50.98/84 support zone which is made upof the September and October lows.

Failure here will open the way for the April low at 50.29 tobe back in focus as well as the psychological 50 region.

Minor resistance is now seen between the 12 Septemberhigh at 51.97 and the 8 October high point at 52.20.

Further resistance can be found along the 55 day movingaverage at 52.35.

We will retain our bearish forecast while the index staysbelow the next higher 53.10 16 November high.

In case of an unexpected rise above this level being seen,

the 200 day moving average at 53.96 would be back inplay.


50.98/84 51.97/52.20

50.29/00 52.35&53.10

Good support sits at 50.98/84


11/18

27 November 2012 10

Palladium - Daily Chart

Palladium Daily Chart

Once again has the psychological 700 region in its sights


656.0/650.0 678.0/680.14

639.03/633.13 700.0/705.25

Palladiums recovery rally is ongoing with it targeting the678.00 October high and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracementof the last three months decline at 680.14.

Once a daily close above the latter has been made, thepsychological 700 region and the 705.25 September highwill be back in the limelight.

Slips should find support around the 656.00/650.00 regionwhere the mid-October and mid-November highs weremade.

While the 200 day moving average at 633.14 underpins,immediate upside pressure will be maintained.

In view of the recent strong up surge we have reverted to abullish medium term view. This will remain valid while the

palladium price remains above the 603.24 mid-Novemberlow.

78.6% Fibonacciretracement is at 680.14


12/18

27 November 2012 11

Palladium - Weekly Chart

Is seen heading back up towards the psychological 700 regionPalladium Weekly Chart

Resistance line is at 677.94


13/18

27 November 2012 12

Platinum - Daily Chart

Platinum Daily Chart

Flirts with the 55 day moving average at 1619.32 whilst bullish momentum persists

Platinums price action has taken it to above the earlyNovember high at 1605, so far to 1628.

We expect to see a daily chart close above the 55 day

moving average at 1619.32 being made. This will changeour medium term view back to being bullish.

We will keep our short term bullish forecast while majorsupport at 1548.78/1525 underpins. The 200 day movingaverage as well as several daily lows can be found here.

Should it be fallen through, however, the 1510.50/1492.00significant support area will be in view. This is where the

J une and J uly highs, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ofthe J uly-to-October rally and the late August low all cometogether.

A rise above the 18 October high at 1679.00 will confirmthe anticipated trend reversal higher.


1593.0/1587.0 1679.0&1721.0

1548.8/1525.0 1736.0/1741.0

55 day moving average is at 1619.34


14/18

27 November 2012 13

Platinum - Weekly Chart

Continues to bounce off the 200 week moving average at 1541.23Platinum Weekly Chart

200 week moving average is seen at 1541.23


15/18

27 November 2012 14

Other technical analysis reports we publish are:

Monday: Daily Market Technicals (FX), Strategic Technical Themes, FX Emerging Markets Technicals;

Tuesday: Daily Market Technicals (FX);

Wednesday: Daily Market Technicals (FX), Commodity Weekly, Commodity Currencies Weekly Technicals;

Thursday: Daily Market Technicals (FX), Asian Currencies Weekly Technicals, FX Strategy;

Friday: Daily Market Technicals (FX), Fixed Income Weekly Technicals.


16/18


17/18


18/18

27 November 2012 17

Karen JonesHead of FICC Technical Analysis

Tel. +44 207 475 1425

Mail [email protected]

ZentraleKaiserplatzFrankfurt am Main

www.commerzbank.de

Postfachanschrift60261 Frankfurt am Main

Tel. +49 (0)69 / 136-20Mail [email protected]

Axel RudolphSenior Technical Analyst

Tel. +44 207 475 5721

Mail [email protected]

bullion weekly technicals 27112012

Documents