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Bullseye Report

Weekly Overview

Authored by:

Juanis G. Barredo

VP; Chief Technical Analyst

COL Financial Group Inc.

(632) 636-5411

Juanis.barredo@colfinancial.comDisclaimer: All opinions and estimates constitute the judgment of COLs Equity Research Dept as of

the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. The report is for informational

purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale of a security.

Philippine Equity Research

Oct 13, 2014

WEEKS HIGLIGHTS The Philippines PSEi lost 79-pts WoW (-1.1%) as resistance and

pressure from other markets weighed in

Average Daily Value for the week picked slowed to P8.9-B from

P11.1-B the week previous

Net foreign flows were negative showing outflows of P8.4-B

compared with P1.1-B inflows the week previous

The PSEi fell back to its Sept 15 low and has broken its 32-day

Moving Average in the process, consigned it to a short term

reactive phase. With other markets on a heavier corrective streak,

it may put added pressure into the PSEi and force it to back of

towards it 65-day (7,075) or even the 130-day (6,908) Moving

Average if the reactive drive intensifies. MACD readings concurwith these suggestions as it does point to ongoing momentum

weakness. This recommends some profit taking in stronger issues

breaking short term averages and lightening upon those whose

medium term support structures have been broken.

US and European markets showed heavy corrections last week

and could still earmark some reactive or consolidation movements

this week, hopefully showing some oversold rallies. We did notice

some key support breaks which could drive a more entrenched

corrective period into the short termforcing a sell into rallies

into these markets

Focus ItemsHighlight Page

Philippines : Weekly Stats 2

Philippines : PSEi & Peso 3

Tech Map: Some key stocks and trend calls 4

US and Europe: In review 5Asia: In review 6

Currencies & Commodities: In review 7

Issue Last Wk Current Wk Chg Wk Chg % YTD %

Philippines 7,247 7,167 (79.68) (1.10) 21.69

Peso-$ 44.420 44.760 0.340 0.77 0.82

DJIA 17,010 16,544 (465.59) (2.74) (0.20)

SP500 1,968 1,906 (61.77) (3.14) 3.13

Nasdaq 4,476 4,276 (199.38) (4.45) 2.39

England 6,528 6,340 (187.94) (2.88) (6.06)Nikkei 15,709 15,301 (408.10) (2.60) (6.08)

Hong Kong 23,065 23,089 23.98 0.10 (0.93)

China 2,364 2,375 10.67 0.45 12.22

US 30yr Bond 138.53 140.60 2.07 1.49 10.40

10-Yr Yield 24.470 23.070 (1.400) (5.72) (23.76)

Dollar Indx 86.810 86.060 (0.75) (0.86) 7.19

Gold 1,191.10 1,223.30 32.20 2.70 1.54

Oil 89.71 85.52 (4.19) (4.67) (13.35)

GTX 4,403.13 4,315.90 (87.23) (1.98) (10.63)

mailto:Juanis.barredo@citiseconline.commailto:Juanis.barredo@citiseconline.com

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Philippines: Weekly Stats*Bullseye --- Page 2

*Source: PSE (PE Ratios are

estimated using four-quarter

trailing financial data)

Net Foreign Flows (in Billions PHP)

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Philippines: PSEi & PesoBullseye --- Page 3

Recommendation: Take some profits; watch stops

Support: 7,0876,936 Resistance: 7,403 - 7,550

The PSEi was down 79-pts WoW at 7,117 (-1.1%) pressured

by global corrections and the proximity of its previous high

A break in its short term up trendline may drive more

pressure and keep the corrective stance open

Medium term support is placed at 7,087 followed by 6,936

while resistance is adjusted to 7,4037,550; short term

support at 7,215 was broken MACDs in both daily and weekly charts show ongoing

weakness and should prepare us for more corrective

cascades

Recommendation: Short term buy/hold Dollar

Support: 44.40 - 44.00 Resistance: 44.75- 45.00 /45.50

The Peso-$ (at P44.76) was weaker given the underlyingstrength of the US Dollar

The Peso broke above an Inverted head and Shoulders

pattern with its neckline resistance at 44.13-44.25the

break heralded a swing closer to 45.00 (hitting this target)

and could even thereafter target 45.50

This raised a short term Buy on the Dollar (sell Peso) looking

to take some profits closer to estimated resistance zones Wait for pullbacks into the Dollar for buys

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Tech Map

BLOOM ABS AC ORE AEV ANI

FPH ANS AGI PCOR DAVIN BHI

GTCAP AP ALI PIP EMP COAL

BDO APC PSE FDC COSCO

BPI AT* RCB HOUSE CPG

CEB AUB ROCK LC DMPL

DNL BEL RWM MMI ELI

EDC CAL SCC* RRHI EW

FGEN CHIB SGI FOOD

JFC CNPF SM GLOLPZ DD SMC* OV

LR DIZ STI PGOLD

MCP DMC TA PNB

MEG EEI UBP PNX

RLC FLI VLL PX

SECB GERI PXP

SINO HLCM RFM

SMPH ICT TEL

URC JGS

LRI

LTG^

MA

MARC

MBT*

MER

MPI

MWC

MWIDE

NI

NIKL

3 (-3) 19 (-8) 45 (+9) 8 (-9) 18 (+11)

Bullseye --- Page 4

Some Key Stocks and Trend Calls

GREEN

RED

BLACK

-These issues improved their technical condition for the week

(moving to the left of their column category on the Tech Map)

-These issues regressed on their technical condition for the week

(moving to the right of their column category on the Tech Map)-These issues carried the same technical condition for the week

(standing on the same column category on the Tech Map)

Legend: (Note: Trends are cast in the short term)

Up trends:These issues show continuing if not strong up trends much of which

seem to be technically stable and open to trading buys if risk-reward

measures are appealing.

Up trends needy of reactions or are reacting:

These issues show continuing up trends but a recent up stretch could

show (or is now showing) vulnerability to some profit taking and

reactive adjustments. Wait for a pullback to short term support or a

rally from support to cast fresh buy trades.

Consolidations (Sideward trends):

These issues are running through consolidation phases await key

range breaks for new trend action. Stay sidelined for now but keep

watch of these potential range breaks [~-up/down, ^-up, *-down).

Down trends needy of rallies or are rallying:

These issues show continuing declines but a recent fall off could

inspire (or is engendering) a temporary rebound wave. Lighten or sell

into rebounds to resistance for now.

Down trends:These issues show continuing if not strong down trends much of

which seem to be technically stable. Stay out for now until a better

demand pattern appears.

Stock Code Color Guide:

Total Issues (change from last week)

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US and European MarketsBullseye --- Page 5

US and Europe take a plungemore

support breaks seen last week

It was a very volatile and red week afterthe US market succumbed to heavy selling

pressure dropping the three main indices

heavily for the week: Dow (-2.7%), SP500 (-

3.1%), Nasdaq (-4.4%)

The declines were so strong that it forced

the Dow and Nasdaq below the much

followed 200-day Moving Average and the

Sp500 right on its 200-day; we also saw keybreaks from their 1.5-yr long up trendlines

These indices are not yet oversold but are

close to them and still suggest a sell into

rallies

Next Support estimates for US indices are

the ff:

Dow: (S) 16,382 - 16,333

SP500: (S) 1,904 - 1,872

Nasdaq: (S) 4,244 - 4,217

European indices also showed heavy

corrections breaking 2014 lows and

proceeding with declining trends as

pointed out by lower-highs and lower-lows;

these markets are now oversold

The US 10-yr Bond Yield proceeded to slip

along its major downward channel, coming

close to the lower end of its estimatedrangeit too is close to being oversold

* Simple Moving Averages: 20-Period 50-Period

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Asian MarketsBullseye --- Page 6

Asia was knocked back after seeing the rout

in the US and Europe; support breaks seen

Many Asian markets fell over afterwitnessing the large scale pullbacks into the

US and Europe, with only but a few indices

showing gains like China (+0.45%), Hong

Kong (+0.10%) and Indonesia (+0.47%)

Japan (-2.6%), Australia (-2.4%) and

Malaysia (-2%) were the hardest hit for the

week followed by S. Korea (-1.7%), Thailand

(-1.1%), the Philippines (-1.1%), India (-1%),and Singapore (-0.9%)

We did see many support breaks unfold with

some strong indices falling below short term

moving averages (16 & 32-day) and a few

even break below 65 and 130-day moving

averagesthis paints a general shift from an

up trend to at least a large sideways trends

if not already short term declines

As such we would expect more correctivechoppiness moving forward as many of

these indices would have to rebuild new

support fronts before recovering stronger

trend patternsrallies may unfold especially

from some showing oversold readings, but

until clear reversal signals can surface

rallies may be temporary as large

consolidation patterns or corrective

channels may render control for the

meantime

* Simple Moving Averages: 20-Period 50-Period

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Currencies & CommoditiesBullseye --- Page 7

Dollar eases from its high stretch, allows

Gold, Euro & Yen to rally; Oil plunges

The US Dollar index (86.06 -0.86% WoW)reacted after breaking a short term trendline

as it was very needy of this adjustment due

to over bought conditions; the Dollar may

consolidate near its short term averages

(85.61-64.68), using these as support

The Euro index (126.24) rallied briefly but sill

shows weakness even in an oversold rally

a sell into rallies is still offered looking at

resistance closer to 127-128.50

The Yen index (92.88) [$-107.34] showed

some rally action after the Dollar easedwe

would expect next resistance closer to 93.13

93.71 followed by 94.60

Metals staged an oversold rally as well (as

allowed by the Dollar reaction) and

maintains a sell into next resistance with

Gold next at $1240, Copper at $3.07 andSilver at $18.20

Oil proceeds to be very bearish and has

broken through a number of support points

and maintain its down trendthe

commodity did come from oversold levels

and could use some rally space as the

spread to its short term averages is far; the

16-day MA is at $90.42 and the 32-day is at

$92thus prices cannot stay too far away

from these too long (sell into rallies)

* Simple Moving Averages: 20-Period 50-Period