Burden of disease from rising coal emissions in Asia

Shannon Koplitz1, Daniel Jacob1, Lauri Myllyvirta2, Melissa Sulprizio1

1Harvard University 2Greenpeace International

International Symposium on Climate Change and Coal May 29, 2015

Coal emissions are harmful to human health

SO2 and NOx from power plants oxidize in the atmosphere to form particulate matter (PM). NOx can also increase ozone concentrations. Both PM and ozone lead to premature mortality in people.

SO2 NOx

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5)

Ozone (O3) Image sources: cliparts.co; www.envpl.ipb.ac.rs; Jupiterimages Corporation; www.intechopen.com/source/html/42164/media/image4.png

Respiratory and cardiovascular disease

Coal emissions declining in the U.S. due to public health concern

Coal emissions in many Asian countries are currently following the same upwards trajectory that has taken decades to reverse in the U.S. and Europe.

Klimont et al., 2013

Difference in SO2 emissions (2010 – 2005)

Coal use is expanding rapidly in Southeast Asia

There are currently more than 400 coal plants scheduled for development in Asia outside China and India. Many of these plants are already under construction.

Sources: Platts WEPP Database, Coalswarm.org

Operating

Projected

Coal power plant locations by 2030

1.  Calculate surface PM and ozone concentrations due to both present day and estimated 2030 coal emissions in East and Southeast Asia (excluding emissions from China and India).

2.  Estimate the human health burden of this rising coal pollution.

Project Objectives

Approach

1.  Attribute changes in PM and ozone concentrations due to both present day (2011) and projected 2030 coal emissions using GEOS-Chem

2.  Apply concentration-response relationships from the literature (Krewski et

al., 2009; Anenberg et al., 2010) to estimate the premature mortality due to coal-related pollution.

Power plant emissions vary widely by facility

Plant specific factors such as the grade of coal being combusted or the emission control technologies in place affect the magnitude and type of emissions coming from each individual coal fired power plant.

Type of coal

Emission control technologies Boiler type

Images: Ciris Energy; AECOM Process Technologies; dieselnet.com; energy-models.com/boilers

Flue gas desulferization (SO2)

Selective catalytic reduction (NOx)

Fluidized Bed Combustion (FBC)

Stoker

We develop a detailed inventory of the currently operating fleet

Japan

S. Korea

Taiwan

Philippines

Vietnam Myanmar

Malaysia

Indonesia

Thailand

China India U.S.

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China India U.S. Countries in this work

Tg y

r-1

Coal SO2 Emissions (Present Day ~2011)

Lu et al., 2011; EPA Annual ARP report 2013

Emissions of SO2 and NOx from coal plants are currently highest in Indonesia, followed by Thailand and Japan.

Coal emissions likely to surpass U.S. levels by 2030

If all projected plants become operational, Asian coal emissions of SO2 and NOx could triple by 2030. Indonesia and Vietnam together account for 67% of this projected increase, as well as an additional 35 million people by 2030.

Japan

S. Korea

Taiwan

Philippines

Vietnam Myanmar

Malaysia

Indonesia

Thailand

China India U.S. Countries in this work

Tg y

r-1

Lu et al., 2011; EPA Annual ARP report 2013

Coal SO2 Emissions

China India U.S.

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Increase by 2030

2011

GEOS-Chem simulates the concentrations of pollutants

GEOS-Chem is a global 3-D chemical transport model used by many research groups around the world to advance our understanding of atmospheric composition and to answer policy relevant questions pertaining to air quality and climate change.

Global 3-D CTM

Emission inventories

Assimilated meteorology

Pollutant concentrations

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1.  Calculate surface PM and ozone concentrations due to both present day and estimated 2030 coal emissions in East and Southeast Asia (excluding emissions from China and India).

2.  Estimate the human health burden of this rising coal pollution.

Project Objectives

Approach

1.  Attribute changes in PM and ozone concentrations due to both present day (2011) and projected 2030 coal emissions using GEOS-Chem

2.  Apply concentration-response relationships from the literature (Krewski et

al., 2009; Anenberg et al., 2010) to estimate the premature mortality due to coal-related pollution.

Coal pollution correlates with populated areas

The largest annual average enhancements in PM from coal occur near populated areas, particularly Hanoi and Jakarta. Ozone enhancements are highest over Sumatra in Indonesia, as well as much of Thailand and Vietnam.

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Koplitz et al., in prep

ΔPM2.5 from 2030 Coal

µg m-3

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ΔOzone from 2030 Coal

ppb

Exposure depends on both pollution levels and population density

Total exposure is highest in Indonesia and Vietnam, followed by China due to high population levels in southern China near Vietnamese emissions.

2010 Population Map

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ΔPM2.5 from 2030 Coal

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Total Exposure in 2030 (ΔPM2.5 x Population)

1.  Calculate surface PM and ozone concentrations due to both present day and estimated 2030 coal emissions in East and Southeast Asia (excluding emissions from China and India).

2.  Estimate the human health burden of this rising coal pollution.

Project Objectives

Approach

1.  Attribute changes in PM and ozone concentrations due to both present day (2011) and projected 2030 coal emissions using GEOS-Chem

2.  Apply concentration-response relationships from the literature (Krewski et

al., 2009; Anenberg et al., 2010) to estimate the premature mortality due to coal-related pollution.

We estimate 16,000 deaths annually from current coal

Including a 10% population increase by 2030 in both Indonesia and Vietnam, we estimate 43,000 deaths annually by 2030 if all projected plants become operational.

Excess Deaths Per Year

2011: 14,860 PM 1,530 ozone 16,390 total 2030 increase: 24,160 PM 2,390 ozone 26,550 total = 42,940 excess deaths per year

Assessment of national contributions to coal pollution is ongoing

We have assessed country level contributions for South Korea, Vietnam, and Taiwan. Results for Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Myanmar and the Philippines will be completed over the next few months.

Contribution of Vietnam to 2030 ΔPM2.5    

Annual Mortality from Vietnam Coal

2011: 3,827 2030 increase: 14,169 = 17,996 excess deaths per year

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µg m-3

New projections for Japanese plants could change results

Including emissions from recently announced coal plants could change estimates of health effects from Japanese coal emissions.

Bloomberg Business, April 09 2015

17  in  our  analysis  

Summary

•  Coal fired power plant emissions of SO2 and NOx form particulate matter and ozone which are detrimental to human health.

•  Coal emissions in Southeast Asia are projected to triple by 2030.

•  Without abatement, these projected emissions could lead to more than 40,000 excess deaths every year.

Please email skoplitz@fas.harvard.edu for more information about this work. Thank you for listening!