bureau of labor statistics 1 using wage records to study the impact of hurricane katrina richard l....
TRANSCRIPT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
1
Using Wage Records to Study the Impact of Hurricane Katrina
Richard L. ClaytonJames R. Spletzer
Bureau of Labor Statistics
May 24, 2006LMI Conference, St. Louis
Bureau of Labor Statistics
2
Outline of Today’s Presentation
Brief overview of Hurricane Katrina
Our data and methodology
The effects of Hurricane Katrina using Louisiana and Texas wage records
Bureau of Labor Statistics
10
Hurricane Katrina
The States and the BLS have done a lot to measure the impact of Hurricane Katrina on labor market outcomes
Today’s presentation – what can wage records tell us about the labor market impacts of Hurricane Katrina?
Bureau of Labor Statistics
11
Data and Methodology
We obtained wage records from:
Louisiana, 2004:Q1 – 2005:Q3
(2005:Q4 forthcoming)
Texas, 2004:Q1 – 2005:Q4
We enhanced the wage records by merging in Quarterly Census of Employment and
Wages (QCEW) data
Bureau of Labor Statistics
12
Data and Methodology
Our methodology:
> Look at quarterly transitions, within and across states
> Compare 2005 transitions to 2004 transitions
For example: look at number of persons who move from New Orleans to Texas in both 2004 and 2005
Bureau of Labor Statistics
13
Data and Methodology
Issues when using WRs for analysis:
Transitions can not be timed within quarters
Wage records only record employment, not unemployment or out of the labor force
Wage records are filed for the UI account, not for the specific establishment
Bureau of Labor Statistics
14
Data and Methodology
For Louisiana (using WR & QCEW data)
62% of employment is in single establishments
11% of employment is in multi-establishment employers with all establishments in the same MSA (8 MSAs + BoS in Louisiana)
27% of employment is in multi-establishment employers with establishments in multiple counties
Bureau of Labor Statistics
15
Number of Wage Records
Texas New Orleans MSA
10,250,000
10,500,000
10,750,000
11,000,000
11,250,000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Texas 2004 Texas 2005
325,000
375,000
425,000
475,000
525,000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
New Orleans MSA 2004 New Orleans MSA 2005
Bureau of Labor Statistics
16
370,000
375,000
380,000
385,000
390,000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Texas 2004 Texas 2005
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
New Orleans MSA 2004 New Orleans MSA 2005
Number of UI Accounts with WRs
Texas New Orleans MSA
Bureau of Labor Statistics
17
The Effects of Hurricane Katrina
# Wage Records and # UI Accounts
Substantial decline in # wage records and # UI accounts in Louisiana in 2005:Q3
Percentage decline is 2½ times larger in New Orleans MSA than in Louisiana
No similar decline in Louisiana in 2004:Q3
No similar decline in Texas in 2005:Q3
Bureau of Labor Statistics
18
The Effects of Hurricane Katrina
# Wage Records and # UI Accounts
Need to ask: Is the substantial decline an economic effect, or is it due to administrative data reporting?
Updated 2005:Q3 Louisiana wage records will incorporate data for late reporters, and thus mitigate administrative reporting issues
Bureau of Labor Statistics
19
Cross-State Mobility
Texas to Louisiana New Orleans to Texas
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Q1 - Q2 Q2 - Q3 Q3 - Q4
Newly Employed in Louisiana (from Texas), 2004
Newly Employed in Louisiana (from Texas), 2005
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
Q1 - Q2 Q2 - Q3 Q3 - Q4
New ly Employed in Texas (from New Orleans MSA), 2004
New ly Employed in Texas (from New Orleans MSA), 2005
Bureau of Labor Statistics
20
The Effects of Hurricane Katrina
Cross-State Mobility
Substantial increase in number of persons newly employed in Texas in 2005:Q3 > conditional on working in Louisiana in 2005:Q2 > conditional on not working in Texas in 2005:Q2
Even larger increase in number of persons newly employed in Texas in 2005:Q4
No similar increases in 2004, nor in cross-state mobility the other direction
Bureau of Labor Statistics
21
The Effects of Hurricane Katrina
Focus on 2 samples of cross-state mobility:
N=1,608 persons moving from New Orleans MSA to Texas in 2004:Q3 (voluntary movers)
N=5,648 persons moving from New Orleans MSA to Texas in 2005:Q3 (voluntary movers + displaced movers)
Are these 2 samples different?> A rough estimate of displacement effects
Bureau of Labor Statistics
22
Cross State MobilityNew Orleans MSA to Texas
2004 Q2-Q3 2005 Q2-Q3
Stay within same EIN 15% 12%
Stay within same Industry 38% 39%
Q2 Earnings (all jobs) 6,664 5,859
Q3 Earnings (all jobs) 8,414 5,305
Q2-Q3 Earnings Gain 1,750 -553
Bureau of Labor Statistics
23
The Effects of Hurricane Katrina
Cross-State Mobility: Pre and Post Katrina
Persons who moved from New Orleans MSA to Texas in 2004:Q3 (all pre-Katrina) gained, on average, $1750 in quarterly earnings
Persons who moved from New Orleans MSA to Texas in 2005:Q3 (some post-Katrina) lost, on average, $553 in quarterly earnings
Results consistent with “Displacement”
Bureau of Labor Statistics
24
Summary: specific findings
We have used 2004 & 2005 wage records (enhanced with QCEW) from LA & TX to study the effects of Hurricane Katrina
> Many striking employment and wage effects
> Much more empirical work to do
We regard our results as preliminary until the 2005:Q4 and the updated 2005:Q3 Louisiana wage records become available