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TRANSCRIPT
BUSHFIELD CAMP, WINCHESTER
Workshop – 31 October 2016
The economic and employment opportunity
and real estate context
AGENDA
Introduction to Knight Frank
Winchester – Context Macro & micro economic overview The employment opportunity Delivering success
Market dynamics
Enterprise M3 – Regeneris Report – review Winchester attributes Regional context Occupier demand overview Values – rental tone Supply – existing and site opportunities
Regional Employment Base Key occupiers How Winchester fits
Occupier Considerations Ingredients for success Priorities and opportunity
Discussion
EMMA GOODFORD
• Head of National Offices and EMEA Tenant Rep
• 1987-2016 30 years experience
• Business Park development consultant
Green ParkReading
•2.25m sq ft
•M&G/Norman Foster
•Cisco/Huawei/PepsiThames Water/CGI
Kings HillKent
•2.8m sq ft
•Kent County Council/Liberty/Harbert
•Mixed use
•2,800 homes and 1m sq ft offices/employment
The Forum, Solent Business Park
•650,000
•M+G/Triston
•HSBC/Specsavers
Chineham ParkBasingstoke
•MEPC/Patrizia
WINCHESTER - CONTEXT
THE UK ECONOMY
1.8
1.1
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2013
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2014
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2015
Q1
2016
Q2
2016
2016
2017
UK GDP Growth % IMF Forecast (year-end)
Source: ONS, Markit, IMF
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
Feb
201
3
Aug
201
3
Feb
201
4
Aug
201
4
Feb
201
5
Aug
201
5
Feb
201
6
Aug
201
6
UK PMI Index Services Sector PMI Index
FORECAST
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
UK South East Winchester
ECONOMIC GROWTH
• In terms of GVA,
Winchester has consistently
outperformed both the
South East and UK since
2007.
• Average growth over the
next five years is forecast to
be 1.9%pa. This is higher
than the average for both
the South East (1.5%pa)
and the UK (1.3%pa).
Source: Experian (Sep 16 index)
GVA, % Growth
POPULATION GROWTH
Source: Experian (Sep 16 index)
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
120.0
125.0
130.0
135.0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Winchester
• The population of
Winchester is forecast to
grow by 10% over the
next 15 years. This
equates to 12,000 more
people.
• The rate of growth of 10%
is higher than both that of
Hampshire (8%) and the
UK (9%).
+10%
ForecastPopulation, 000’s
UNEMPLOYMENT
Source: Experian (Sep 16 index)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Winchester Hampshire South East UnitedKingdom
2006 2016 2030
Unemployment Rate %
• The unemployment
rate in 2016 is 2.9%,
130bps below the
national average.
• The unemployment
rate is forecast to rise
from 2.9% to 3.5% by
2030. This is 200 bps
below the national
average.
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Winchester
JOBS GROWTH
• The number of jobs in
Winchester is forecast to
grow by 12% over the next
15 years. This equates to
11,000 extra jobs.
• The rate of growth of 12%
is higher than Hampshire
(9%), the South East
(10%) and the UK (8%).
Source: Experian (Sep 16 index)
Forecast
+12%
Jobs, 000’s
OFFICE BASED EMPLOYMENT
GROWTH
Source: Experian (Sep 16 index)
+29%
Between 2016 & 2030
Admin and Support
Services
Financial
Services
Computer and
Information Services
+27% +16%
DELIVERING SUCCESS
• Prosperous centre
• Population growth supporting employment
• Quality sectors expanding
• Overall post Brexit low growth challenges
MARKET DYNAMICS
ENTERPRISE M3
REGENERIS REPORT
• Report identifies market areas
and demand by type
• Bushfield Camp focus is the
office and knowledge sector
• Opportunities/challenges
• Supply issues for Winchester
(and Guildford)
• Winchester priorities identified
• Research and public: private
dialogue
WINCHESTER
THE OFFICE MARKET – CONTEXT
• Regional influence – Southampton – Basingstoke –Fareham
• High class Cathedral City – people, retail, amenity, connections
• Office stock – small scale
medium grade
pepper potted
• Nominal profile within the region for commercial occupiers
• Focus of take up in other centres
• Supply side – limited and restrictive and unclear locally
REGIONAL AREA OF COMPETITION
Lower M3/M27 Corridor
OCCUPIER DEMAND ANALYSIS
TAKE UP IN WINCHESTER IN THE LAST 10 YEARS
4,499
16,950
21,526
47,046
17,048
7,000 19,630
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Nu
mb
er
of
Tran
sact
ion
s
• 26 transactions – 3 per annum
• 2013 – 8 transactions, average size 5,875 sq ft
• Royal Court Kingsworthy – scale and success, 19,630 sq ft and 10,877 sq ft leased
Source Knight Frank Research
OCCUPIER DEMAND ANALYSIS – WINCHESTER
TAKE UP BY SIZE IN THE LAST 10 YEARS
• Five transactions over 10,000 sq ft
• 57% sub 5,000 sq ft
• Small transactions dominate
15,451
20,660 40,127
57,461
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
Nu
mb
er
of
Tran
sact
ion
s
>2,500 > 5,000 > 10,000 > 10,000+
Source Knight Frank Research
OCCUPIER DEMAND – THE MARKET CATCHMENT
RELEVANT TO WINCHESTER
MID-LOWER M3/M27 REGION
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
20~50,000 sq ft 50,000 sq ft +
Number of Deals by size band
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Pre-let New Cat A Cat B
Number of Deals by grade
• Sub 50,000 sq ft dominance • Average 4-5 large deals per
annum
• New and Grade A completed buildings dominant – 75% of take up in quality space
Source Knight Frank Research
PRE-LET TRANSACTIONS
SE REGION IN THE LAST 10 YEARS
• The Thames Valley core market dominates
• 2008 – Best year 26% of 10 year take up
• Average year 280,000 in 3.5 pre-let deals pa
• Average size 80,000 sq ft scale
• Over 10 years – 35 pre-lets – 26 from plan
• Mid-lower M3/M27 Region pre-let transactions
include NATS, Carnival Cruises and Lloyds
Register
LOWER M3 CORRIDOR PRE-LETS
NATS Headquarters, Solent Business
Park
Carnival Cruises, Southampton
Lloyds Register Technology
Centre, Southampton
DEMAND OVER THE LAST 10 YEARS, BY SECTOR
MID-LOWER M3/M27 REGION
Construction Energy FBSManufacturing Other PharmaceuticalPublic sector Retail TMT
• Diverse – broad range typical of wider South East
• Professional services and tech dominant – 64%
• Pharmaceutical and public sector – 13.5%
Source Knight Frank Research
RENTAL VALUES
£12.50
£10
£17
£12.75-£15
£12-15.50
New & Grade A Rental Values
Grade B Rental Values
Source Knight Frank Research
£20-21£21-23
£21
£37£35
£33
£19
£25
£18.50
REGIONAL SUPPLY
110,633 (4)
1,783,393 (39)
New & Grade ASq ft (No of Schemes)
Grade BSq ft (No of Schemes)
Key existing buildings and site opportunities
217,371(7)
58,979(2)
200,276(4)
317,240(7)
22,500(1)
142,167(4)
0(0)
0(0)
298,426(8)
247,541(10)
Source Knight Frank Research
303,534(9)
0(0)
DEVELOPMENT SITES
Source Knight Frank Research
Florence, Basing View60,000 sq ftAbstract Securities
North 90, Chineham Park120,000 sq ftPatrizia UK Ltd
The ForumSolent Bus Pk268,303 sq ftTristan Capital Partners
North Harbour300,000 sq ftHighcross
Fareham
London
Guildford
Petersfield
Portsmouth
Southampton
New Forest
National Park
Lyndhurst
Woking
Reading
Winchester
M4
A303
Andover
Swindon
Marlborough
Basingstoke
Farnham
Aldershot
Farnborough
Newbury
M4
M3
M25
M3
M27
A3
A31
A33Bracknell
Staines
Chilcomb Lane & Chilcomb Park89,000 sq ftCavendish & Gloucester Properties
Benham Campus76,000 sq ftUniversity of Southampton
Station Approach?Winchester
John Moore Barracks?Winchester
Bushfield Camp?Winchester
REGIONAL OCCUPIERS
Source Knight Frank Research
Fareham
London
Guildford
Petersfield
Portsmouth
Southampton
New Forest
National Park
Lyndhurst
Woking
Reading
Winchester
M4
A303
Andover
Swindon
Marlborough
Basingstoke
Farnham
Aldershot
Farnborough
Newbury
M4
M3
M25
M3
M27
A3
A31
A33
Bracknell
Staines
REGIONAL ENTERPRISE ZONES
13 hectares740,000 sq ft but just 60,000 sq ft spec development
22 hectares1.2m sq ftNo spec development
8 hectares200,000 sq ftNo spec development
• Winchester specific opportunities limited – opportunity and choice would support micro economic growth forecast and attract/retain employment
MARKET DYNAMICS SUMMARY
• Regional influence – lower M3
• Winchester lacks scale and hence does not compete with other centres
• Local schemes can capture quality occupier demand
• Pre-let commitment is scarce
• Broad range of sectors active
• Values can support development
• Clarity of supply essential and range of choice beneficial
• Regional business can generate occupier demand
REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT BASE
HOW WINCHESTER FITS
• Supply can be responsive to sectors/employment
growth projections – this includes Bushfield Camp
• Business and professional services,
knowledge/tech/creative sectors and office based
retail services – all relevant to Bushfield
• Local government and public service sector
potential – scale and expansion
Source DTZ Report 2011
WHY WINCHESTER?
• Cathedral City – cachet and prestige – Cambridge/Oxford
• Connectivity – Road/rail access
• People – quality of workforce/educated
• Lifestyle – retail, housing, education
• Exclusive – brand value, limited opportunity
Cathedral College Housing M3/Train
INNOVATION - EDUCATION
University of Winchester
Sparsholt College
Southampton Science Park
University of Southampton
Southampton Solent University
Basingstoke College of Technology
• Strong correlation between education + innovation + talent availability +
employment opportunity
• Regional city examples – Guildford, Oxford, Cambridge and Greater London
WHAT WINCHESTER COULD DELIVER TO ATTRACT
EMPLOYMENT – THE REAL ESTATE CONTEXT
• A clear vision
• A credible plan detailing specific opportunities
• Promotion of the opportunity to a broad range of employers
• A drive to provide quality and architecturally sensitive schemes
• A project that attracts talent to remain in the city
• An approach which accommodates new and existing business to
grow
• Promotion of close integration with regional universities and colleges
– knowledge pool
• A location that is attractive to inward investors, funds and corporates
WHY WINCHESTER SUMMARY
• Cathedral city – cachet
• Capturing educational opportunity
• Expanding employment base
• Focus of quality but deliverable projects
• Range of choice to attract diverse occupier
base
OCCUPIER CONSIDERATIONS
OCCUPIER CONSIDERATIONS
• Talent – staff retention (cost of loss = 143% of basic
salary)
• Accessibility – infrastructure and technology
• Risk mitigation – cost neutrality
• Brand – supportive of image/market positioning
• Design – inspiring, creative, flexible
INGREDIENTS FOR A SUCCESSFUL
WORKPLACE
•High quality architecture
•Materials and design
•Efficiency and flexibility
•Sustainability considerations
•BREEAM | LEED | WELLNESS
•Open spaces / landscaped areas
Design Criteria
• Careful master planning
• Considerate phasing
• Adaptability – technological changeCritical Mass
• Professional team
• Quality performance
• Clarity of timelines
• Certainty and risk mitigation
• Brand and market positioning – significant for Winchester
Delivery/Certainty
WHAT DOES SUCCESS LOOK LIKE?
• Professional team – procurement experience
• Infrastructure investment – ready to go site
• Integrated public transport AND parking provision
• Brand – market positioning – quality profile
• Commitment – success supporting success
• Progressive Local Authority – Ray Morgan (Woking), Sir
Howard Bernstein (Manchester)
Architecture QualityRange
SustainabilityPlace
People
Delivery
Design
Mix
Management
Future Proofing
Stakeholder Involvement
Value
Connectivity
Brand
Landscape Materials
Specification Choice
DESIGNING A NEW BUSINESS
ENVIRONMENT
Profile/PRPromotion
Mix/range Education
Availability
Funding Planning Certainty
Plots Buildings
Roads Services
Flexibility Density Churn
Price/Cost Tenure Terms
Transport Integration on
Cars/Bikes/People/Tech
REAL ESTATE COSTS
Cost Cutting
Cost Saving
Cost Efficient
Cost Neutral
2008 2009-11 2011-13 2014-16
THE GROWING INFLUENCE OF THE
DECISION MAKER
OCCUPIER CONSIDERATIONS
SUMMARY
• War for talent – employee focus
• Technology impact
• Designing brand awareness
• Certainty and clarity – delivery
• Quality and flexibility of environment
• Risk awareness – cost neutrality
• The opportunity for Winchester is tangible
QUESTIONS & DISCUSSION