business opportunities in brazil (ted tanner) - uli fall meeting - 102811
TRANSCRIPT
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Business Opportunities in Brazil 2011 ULI Fall Meeting and Urban Land Expo October 28, 2011 Los Angeles
Moderator - Luiz Antonio Campos Mello
Speakers - Clay Dickinson
- Pat McCudden
- Ted Tanner
- Marcos Lessa Mendes
www.camposmelloadv.com.br
www.joneslanglasallehotels.com
www.hyatt.com
www.aegworldwide.com
www.odebrecht.com
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Business Opportunities in Brazil 2011 ULI Fall Meeting and Urban Land Expo October 28, 2011 Los Angeles
Clay Dickinson Executive Vice President
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Month 00, 2002 3
Integrated Global Team Servicing Global Companies
• Critical environments • Museums • R&D centers • Hospitals • Sports arenas • Transportation centers
• Office • Retail • Shopping centers • Industrial • Hotels • Mixed use
• Investment Management • Project Development
Services • Property Management • Real Estate Investment
Banking • Retail • Strategic Consulting • Tenant Representation
• Agency Leasing • Corporate Capital Markets • Development and Asset
Strategy • Energy and Sustainability • Government Services • Hotels • Integrated Facilities
Management
Our real estate specialties Our real estate services
Jones Lang LaSalle - expertise serving a range of needs
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Month 00, 2002
Providing services to iconic companies across all real estate types since 1996 Jones Lang LaSalle in Brazil
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Month 00, 2002
Trends in key real estate drivers
Source: IHS Global Insight, Getulio Vargas Foundation
Brazil is THE growth market in the Americas; middle class emerging strongly
Brazil’s real GDP growth outpacing U.S. growth by two to four percentage points annually
Brazil’s middle class now represents 50% of population, up from 38% in 2003
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Month 00, 2002
Trends in key real estate drivers
Source: IHS Global Insight, Empresa de Pesquisa Energética
FDI rising as investors seek to capitalize on country’s growth; additional future upside lies in Brazil’s recently discovered massive oil reserves
Gross FDI to average $58 billion per year through 2014
upside lies in Brazil’s recently discovered massive oil reserves
Oil fields discovered off coast of Rio de Janeiro conservatively estimated at 30 to 80 billion barrels. Production to triple by 2035
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Month 00, 2002
Planned investments for FIFA World Cup (R$ billions) FIFA World Cup host cities spread across country
SC
AM
RR
PA
AP
MA PI
CE
BA
MG GO DF MT
RO AC
MS
PR
RS
SP
TO
RJ ES
SE AL PE PB RN
SC
AM
RR
PA
AP
MA PI
CE
BA
MG GO DF MT
RO AC
MS
PR
RS
SP
TO
RJ ES
SE AL PE PB RN Manaus
Fortaleza Natal
Recife
Rio de Janeiro
Brasília Cuiabá
Belo Horizonte
São Paulo Curitiba
Porto Alegre
Salvador
Source: Ernst & Young, Jones Lang LaSalle
Trends in key real estate drivers Upcoming sporting events accompanied by large-scale investment; though not without challenges
Estimated infrastructure spending of US$32 billion for FIFA World Cup and US$14 billion for Summer Olympic Games
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Month 00, 2002
Overview of real estate trends: office market
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle
Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro office markets encompass 14 million m2; country’s growth leading to significant opportunity for expansion of stock
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Month 00, 2002
GLA per 1,000 inhabitants (sqm) - 2008
Source: ICSC/BR Mall, Jones Lang LaSalle
Gross leasable area (GLA) of shopping malls grew 88% over past ten years but still greatly lags other countries’ on per capita basis, highlighting growth potential for expansion of shopping malls and big-box stores
Overview of real estate trends: retail market
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Month 00, 2002
Brazil Lodging Performance – 2003 – 2010
Overview of real estate trends: hotel market
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels
Brazil’s hotel market running on all cylinders with 2010 RevPAR 79% above 2004 level. International investors are evaluating potential of scale roll-out of branded mid market hotels; for now, front runner Accor still dominating space
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Month 00, 2002
• 6 million low-end units shortage • Evolving mortgage market • Developers going public • Active JV market • High volume of launches in all classes • Land prices quickly increasing • Going towards main cities • Supported by government
Overview of real estate trends: residential market
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, World Bank
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Month 00, 2002 12
Brazil real estate market SWOT analysis
Strengths – Stable, democratic government and solid macro-economic
fundamentals
– Rich natural resources
– Demographic bonus
– Leading recipient of both portfolio and direct foreign investment
– Evolving capital market
– Earnings can be repatriated on a tax free basis
Weaknesses – Lack of long term financing
– Early termination of typical lease contracts
– Development concentrated in a few cities - southeast
– Not enough infrastructure investments
– Complex, expensive labor environment
– Difficult tax environment
– Leasing payment must be in BRL currency
Opportunities – Rapidly growing middle class
– Increasingly integrated with global economy
– PAC and private infrastructure investment creates commercial demand in secondary and tertiary cities
– Increased economic decentralization
– World Cup, Olympic Games and recently discovered oil reserves
– Interest of international funds and lenders
Threats
– Strong demand for land drives prices up
– Lack of specialized human resources
– Cap rates compression drive prices beyond and returns below acceptable risk-adjusted levels for international investors.
– Global recession drives commodity prices down
– Foreign funds flock home to protect the flank
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Month 00, 2002
Is there a real estate bubble?
We think there isn’t, here’s why:
• The average use of personal funds for purchasing real estate assets is still very high (around 40%)
• Many purchasers opt to purchase with shorter installments and amortization schedules
• Leverage is relatively insignificant and derivative products are underdeveloped
• Prudent monetary policy and regulation of the Brazilian market after the reforms passed in the 90’s
• Growing price levels indicate heated demand justified by low unemployment and larger salaries
• Increasing factor prices (land, labor and capital) impede supply growth
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Business Opportunities in Brazil 2011 ULI Fall Meeting and Urban Land Expo October 28, 2011 Los Angeles
Pat McCudden Senior Vice President
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Grand Hya) Rio de Janeiro
• Mixed use project with 408 hotel keys and approximately 40-‐50 branded whole ownership residences.
• 46,000 square meter site across the street from the beach in Barra da Tijuca secIon of Rio de Janeiro.
• Hya) purchased approximately 70% of the land for the development of the Grand Hya) Hotel in December 2010.
• Hotel budget is approximately BRL$450 million, approximately US$250 million.
• Approximately 50% of the hotel development costs will be funded via a loan from the Brazilian NaIonal Development Bank (BNDES) under a special line of credit established for the development of new hotels that offers “below market financing”.
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Grand Hya) Rio de Janeiro
• Hotel construcIon is anIcipated to begin in mid 2012 and be completed in early 2015.
• Design consultants are a mix of internaIonal and local firms. • Sales of the branded residences are likely to begin in 2012 and
the developer of these residences is seeking a sales price of approximately US$1,600 per square foot.
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Grand Hyatt Rio de Janeiro
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Grand Hyatt Rio de Janeiro
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Grand Hyatt Rio de Janeiro
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03. Google Earth Site Plan
Grand Hyatt Rio de Janeiro
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Grand Hyatt Rio de Janeiro
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Grand Hyatt Rio de Janeiro
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Grand Hyatt Rio de Janeiro
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20. Perspective View from Guestroom
Grand Hyatt Rio de Janeiro
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Grand Hyatt Rio de Janeiro
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Grand Hyatt Rio de Janeiro
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Business Opportunities in Brazil 2011 ULI Fall Meeting and Urban Land Expo October 28, 2011 Los Angeles
Ted Tanner Executive Vice President
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Business Opportunities in Brazil 2011 ULI Fall Meeting and Urban Land Expo October 28, 2011 Los Angeles
Marcos Lessa Mendes Chief Executive Officer
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The 1st Smart City in LaIn America. A new way of living
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Transport, Logistics and
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Residential and office districts – 3rd phase.
From 2025
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