business research session 3 hypothesis construction
TRANSCRIPT
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Session 3
Hypothesis / Model Construction
and Creativity
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An Hypothesis
• “The relationship between two or more variables which is believed to exist and which can be tested”
• If a hypothesis is proven repeatedly it becomes enshrined as a theory or a law (until disproved, modified or amended!)
• “The Earth is flat”
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Variables
• Must be measurable
• Ideally should be continuous
• Established methods of measurement
(SERVQUAL) / Units of measurement
(Likert scales)
• Ideally linear relationships ( y = mx + c)
• Many relationship are often asymptotic or
exponential
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Model building
• Looser configuration of variable thought to
be associated with the dependent variable
• No strong numerical relationships between
the variables.
• Many variables unsuitable to
measurement
• Often interactions between variables
• Models are complex and multidimensional
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Static and Dynamic modelling
• Static models are those which describe
“what is” at a specific moment in time
• Dynamic models are relationships
designed to forecast the future based on
changes in one or more variables
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Exercise
• “What factors impinge on the total sales of
ice-cream in Thailand?”
• Build a static model to describe the ice
cream market in the country.
• What factors are more important than
others? / which are related to each other?
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Methods of Business Forecasting
• The choice of method used depends on a trade off between FOUR criteria:
Accuracy required
Resources available
Time frame
Data availability
Methods available can be defined along TWO dimensions:
Subjective / Objective
Analytic / Experiential
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Typology of Methods of
Forecasting
Analytic
Dynamic
Modelling
Objective
Heuristic/extrapolation
methods
ExperientialCharismatic
Judgements
Delphi
Subjective
Expert
Judgements
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Research and Creativity
• Successful companies are those who have
the connection / transition from research
based knowledge to creativity
• Singapore is knowledgeable
• Europe and the US is knowledgeable and
creative
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What is creativity?
• The result of imagination rather than
routine skills
• The ability to imagine new and useful
solutions to problems
• A drive to see things other than they seem
• Thinking “outside the box”
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“Thinking outside the box”
• Using only 4 lines join all 9 points in the square below.
. . .
. . .
. . .
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Thinking outside the box
Problem
A large Liverpool nightclub (1,500 – 2,000
dancers) has a problem with bar service
where typical waiting times are 15 – 20
minutes. Apart from adding more bar
space how can the problem be solved?
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Lessons learnt from this example
• Get rid of your assumptions (you assume
it is person to drink. Why not drink to
person?)
• Reduce concepts to their basics – liquid
transport
• Import ideas from other areas where the
same benefit is needed.
• Think differently
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How smart are you?
The Giraffe Test
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Question
How do you put a giraffe in a refrigerator?
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Correct Answer
Open the fridge, put in the giraffe, and close the
door!
(This question tests whether you tend to do simple
things in an overly complicated way)
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Question
How do you put an elephant into a
refrigerator?
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Did you say ………
Open the refrigerator, put in the elephant,
and close the refrigerator?
WRONG
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Correct answer
Open the refrigerator, take out the giraffe,
put in the elephant, and close the door
(This tests your ability to think through the
repercussions of your previous actions)
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Question
The Lion King is hosting an animal
conference. All the animals attend, except
one.
Which animal does not attend?
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Correct Answer
The Elephant
The Elephant is in the fridge – you just put
him in there!
(This tests your memory)
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So you got those wrong?
One more chance to show your true abilities
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Question
There is a river you must cross but it is used
by crocodiles, and you do not have a boat.
How do you manage it?
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Correct Answer
You jump into the river and swim across.
Have you not been listening? All the crocodiles are attending the Animal
Meeting
(This tests whether you learn quickly from your mistakes)
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What does it all mean?
• According to Anderson Consulting, around 90%
of the executives they tested got all questions
wrong!
But many primary schoolchildren got several
correct answers
Which proves conclusively that most professionals
have the brains of a primary schoolchild!
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BISOCIATION
• Bringing together of two previously
unrelated planes of thought
• Chipboard: Glue + wood shavings /
sawdust
• Windsurfing: Surf board + Sailing dinghy
• Adhesive brush: Adhesive tape + clothes
brush
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Brain Hemispheres
• Right: Creativity, Images, Colour, Emotion,
Holism, Intuition, Comprehension,
Recognition.
• Left: Evaluation, Logic, Reasoning,
Rationale, Analysis, Calculation, Realism
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Why creativity?
• If you do not, you will ultimately die!
• Innovating companies are more profitable!
• Your reputation as a creator will attract the best employees (Microsoft)
• Encourages positive cultural values
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Areas of creativity
• Product / service improvement
• Product / service diversification
• New products / services
• More creative advertising
• Increased efficiency and quality / reduced
costs
• Increased personal effectiveness
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Creativity Blockers
• “The brain is a wonderful thing – it switches
on as you wake in the morning and doesn’t
switch off again until you arrive in the
office!”
• Blockers include: Habit, fear of making mistakes,
upbringing, language, fear of consequences,
absolute truths, principles, fear of change,
certainty, beliefs, self doubt, rational thought,
age, lack of time, politeness, specialisation.
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Use your senses!
• Look: In your garden or park, pick out 15 varieties of green
• Listen: Listen to a well known piece of music and pick out the main instruments
• Touch: Close your eyes, reach out like a blind person and feel
• Taste: Can you distinguish between Coke and Pepsi – blindfolded?
• Smell: What do you associate with pleasant smells?
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Producing creative ideas
• Brainstorming / Focus groups
• Defect analysis
• Dimensional extrapolation
• Synectics / Analogies
• Quality Circles / TQM / Benchmarking
• Re-engineering
• Identification (Clay pigeon shooting)
• Mind mapping
• Triadics
• Critical Incident Analysis
• Lateral Thinking
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Exercise: Nestle takeover
Rowntrees
• Nestles takeover of Rowntrees in the mid 1990’s
was reckoned, at the time, to be far too
generous to the owners. Nestle knew otherwise!
• Rowntrees had five important global brands
(Kitkat, Polo, After 8 mints, Smarties, and
Pastilles) which over the past decade have been
exploited by product development!
• Kitkat, at the time of takeover, consisted of two
products – a two finger and four finger version!
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Your task: Extend the Kitkat family!
• Starting with the two versions Nestle
started with, extend the Kitkat family!
• Since 1995 Nestle have launched 22 new
products in the Kitkat family, from a
possible total of over 100 !!!
• You should not be short of ideas!
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Mind mapping
• Start with a key problem (the trunk of a tree) and
spread out the branches from the trunk. Try this
one!
Bangkok has a reputation as
the sex capital of the world
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Creative Output
• A creative organisation will demonstrate:
• A continuous stream of new ideas
• Attracting the brightest / most creative talent
• Will make quantum leaps in technology / design
(revolution not evolution)
• Will focus on problem solving / benefit creation
• Have strong contacts with leading edge
academics
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Presenting new ideas
• Visual aids (pictures, graphs, colour, humour, alternative mediums, few words)
• Body language (be open, head up and voice up, lots of eye contact, move around, be aware of personal traits!)
• Question (welcome interruptions, reflect, tie in to their problems, pre-empt arguments, don’t show anger with objections!)
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To summarise
• Creative companies are successful and profitable companies
• Creativity can be learnt, but needs managerial support and a supportive corporate culture to thrive
• Employees often dislike / distrust change
• Creativity needs to be continuous
• If you are not creative you will die, and business research is the starting point of creativity
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Exercise: Hozelock
• Hozelock make green vinyl plastic hose, used for watering gardens, together with a range of attachments for cleaning cars, spraying lawns, and rotary distribution.
• A recent report showed a long term decline in the market due to smaller gardens, increased competition from better products (flat hose) and product sustainability.
• Advise the company how it might develop