by eddie hunsinger and david howell, …laborstats.alaska.gov/trends/apr12art1.pdfby eddie hunsinger...

4 ALASKA ECONOMIC TRENDS APRIL 2012

By EDDIE HUNSINGER and DAVID HOWELL, Demographers; and ERIC SANDBERG, Research Analyst

Historic Events and Population ChangeAlaska, 1947 to 20111

Alaska’s Highly Migratory Population Annual moves to, from, and across the state

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

-10,000

-20,000

Natural increase (births minus deaths) Net migration

Korean War

Pipeline constructionOil boom

Oil bustPipeline

completion

Base closures

VietnamWar

1989-91Recovery

End of WWII

Great Recession

Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research and Analysis Section

Alaska has one of the highest rates of population turnover in the nation — there are always large numbers of people mov-

ing in and out, regardless of whether the overall population is growing or shrinking.

Depending on the year and data source, between 5 and 7 percent of Alaska’s population enters or leaves the state each year. These large fl ows in and out, or “gross migration,” tend to be fairly stable and predictable.

While gross migration fl ows explain how the makeup of the population changes, “net migra-tion” measures the effect on the total population count — just one effect of moves.

Net migration — the number who move in minus those who move out — is much more volatile, and it’s important to remember it’s just at the surface of the much larger and more consistent in-and-out migration fl ows. Even during the years

that Alaska has a net migration loss, more than 30,000 people still arrive here each year.

A history of major swings

A number of major economic events over the past century have caused large numbers of people to move in, out, and across Alaska. (See Exhibit 1.)

Through the 1940s and 1950s, the state’s popula-tion boomed due to military buildups for World War II and the Cold War. A large proportion of the new residents were young GIs who would either stay in the state or return with their families.

Alaska’s population at statehood in 1959 was just a third of what it is today. Then in 1968, oil discovery at Prudhoe Bay and con-struction of the Trans-Alaska Oil Pipe-line brought in tens of thousands of workers, followed by large net losses after the pipeline’s completion.

New oil revenue in the early 1980s brought another period of dramatic growth through net migration, followed by big losses when oil prices dropped. Since the early 1990s, these fl uctua-tions have been less dramatic.

No perfect data source

Migration data come from three main sources, each with its own strengths and weaknesses. This means each source is an indicator of migration, but none provides a complete system to track it.

Population change is made up of three components: migration, births, and deaths. Of these, migration is the most complex and volatile.

5APRIL 2012 ALASKA ECONOMIC TRENDS

Large Movements In, OutIRS data, 2000 to 2010 2

Note: These data only cover state-to-state migration for those included on IRS tax forms.Sources: IRS Tax Statistics; and Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research and Analysis Section

2000

-2001

2001

-2002

2002

-2003

2003

-2004

2004

-2005

2005

-2006

2006

-2007

2007

-2008

2008

-2009

2009

-2010

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

In-migrationOut-migration

Yearly Migration to Alaska by StateIRS data, 2000 to 2010 3

• Data from Permanent Fund Dividend applications have broad in-state coverage and provide information on age and sex, but lag on new migrants from outside the state because they aren’t eligible for the PFD until they’ve lived in Alaska for one calendar year. Similar-ly, PFD data do not capture people who never live here long enough to qualify for a divi-dend. Younger workers are especially likely to be missed for that reason.

• Data based on Internal Revenue Service tax forms provide direct counts of migration between U.S. counties, boroughs, and census areas by comparing the mailing addresses of exemptions — that is, fi lers and their depen-dents — from year to year. However, the IRS data give no population characteristics except median income and those aged 65 or over, and

2,266

636

2,674

532

982

565

1,026571

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580

885

2,804

937

566

1,292

589

728

2,000 - 3,000

1,000 - 2,000

500 - 1,000

0 - 500

HI594

Sources: IRS Tax Statistics; and Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research and Analysis Section


Yearly Net Migration by Age PFD data, 2000 to 20105

Note: Adjusted for one-year delay in Permanent Fund Dividend eligibility.Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Re-search and Analysis Section

Yearly Migration by Age and SexPFD data, 2000 to 20104

85+

80

75

70

65

60

55

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

Age

02505007501,000 0 250 500 750 1,000Males Females

2

To Alaska

From Alaska

Typical ageof high schoolgraduation

they are based on the address given on the form. The data cover about 85 percent of Alaska’s popula-tion, and the timing of the data release isn’t clear from year to year.

• Data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey provide more population char-acteristics than any other source, including age, sex, race, income, and education. However, the ACS is based on a small sample of the population and tends to have large margins of error. For most areas in Alaska, it’s only available in fi ve-year averages.

Migration to and from outside

Exhibit 2 shows Alaska’s IRS exemption-based annual gross migration to and from other states from 2000 to 2010. Note it only covers those on federal tax returns, and it doesn’t include international migration. The ACS shows that 6,500 people moved in from abroad each year on average from 2006 to 2010, netting around 1,000 to the state annually.

Overall, Alaska gets most of its new residents from states that are large and/or close. Exhibit 3 shows the states that sent the highest numbers of people to Alaska from 2000 to 2010, and this map wouldn’t change much if it refl ected individual years.

Large numbers of people move here from neighboring states such as Washington and California, and few come from small or faraway places like Maine and Nebraska. Distant states such as Texas and Florida have low rates of migration to Alaska, but because they have such large populations, the numbers of their residents who move here are substantial. If the map showed where in the U.S. people tend to go when they leave Alaska, the pat-tern would be similar.

Young people move more

It’s important to understand gross migration fl ows by age as well as across time and space. The pattern is fairly predictable, as some age groups are more likely to move than others.

As the PFD-based migration data in Exhibit 4 show, younger people are more likely to move than older people, and parents of young children are more likely to relocate than those with children in middle school or high school. When people reach college age, movement jumps substantially as many leave home for school, new jobs, or military service. The level of migration gener-ally peaks in the mid-20s as people settle down, and

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85+

Typical ageof high schoolgraduation

Age

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

Net migration

Note: Adjusted for one-year delay in Permanent Fund Dividend eligibility.Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Re-search and Analysis Section


Alaska Population by Age and SexU.S. Census, 20107

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; and Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research and Analysis Section

85+

80

75

70

65

60

55

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

Age

02,0004,0006,0008,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000Males Females

BabyBoom

EchoBoom

declines steadily thereafter.

The pattern of net migration by age is fairly stable from year to year, with net gains in younger years as children settle here with their parents, followed by a clear drop at college age when people leave for outside opportunities. There is a comparably dramatic increase for ages just past college, as many young adults seeking career opportunities settle here. (See Exhibit 5.) Although the pattern of net loss and then gain of those aged 18 to 20 is striking, it’s only a fraction of the more than 30,000 people in that age group. The state also consistently attracts more people between 21 and 35 than it loses.

A comparison of PFD data from year to year shows what proportion of residents are still in Alaska fi ve years after the typical high school graduation age of 18. Since 1995, the percentage of 18-year-old applicants who have remained in

Alaska or returned has increased from 67 to 72 percent. (See Exhibit 6.) Though that rise isn’t dramatic, this age group is undoubtedly affected

by opportunities in Alaska and the rest of the nation.

Past age 30, net migration gains steadily decrease and become net losses (See Exhibit 5.) The size of net losses among older people has been fairly stable, but this could soon change with the ag-ing of Alaska’s large “baby boomer” population — those born between 1946 and 1964 — and the relatively small pre-boomer population ahead of it. (See Exhibit 7.)

Losses at the highest ages are somewhat lower, partly because there are fewer people to affect the numbers at those ages, and partially because elderly peo-ple move less.

Most aren’t born here

Place of birth is an obvious and useful indicator of whether a person has ever moved, and these data are available from decennial censuses through 2000 and the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey for 2010.

As of 2010, 39 percent of Alaskans were born in the state. (See Exhibit 8). This is an increase from 31 percent in 1960, but

More 18-Year-Olds Stay or ReturnPercent in Alaska at age 23, 1995 to 2010 6

Note: Based on Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend data.Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Re-search and Analysis Section

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%


Born in Alaska 1960 to 20108 Movement To and From the Regions

Yearly PFD data, Alaska, 2000 to 20109


19601970

19801990

20002010

5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%

0

Into Alaska Out of Alaska0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

NorthernSouthwestGulf CoastSoutheastInteriorAnchorage/Mat-Su

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; and Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research and Analysis Section

still much lower than the 59 percent for the nation as a whole in 2010. The only states with a smaller percentage born there were Arizona (38 percent), Florida (35 percent), and Nevada (24 percent).

Regional losses and gains

Between 2000 and 2010, approximately 55 per-cent of Alaska’s new and returning residents moved to the Anchorage/Matanuska-Susitna area, followed by 19 percent to the Interior, 10 percent to Southeast, and 10 percent to the Gulf Coast. The more remote regions, including Northern and Southwest, gained only slim shares of the state’s new or returning residents — around 5 percent combined. (See Exhibit 9.)

In terms of overall net migration across the state, the Matanuska-Susitna Borough gained the most on average, with more than 2,200 additional resi-dents per year. Mat-Su was followed by the Kenai Peninsula Borough and Fairbanks North Star Bor-ough, which each gained 250 people per year on average. (See Exhibit 10.) Military buildups and deployments have strongly affected Fairbanks’ population, especially over the past decade.

The state’s more rural areas have consistently lost population to migration over the past few decades. However, the Southwest and Northern regions have had higher-than-average natural increase — that is, births minus deaths — which has tended to make up for their migration losses. (See Exhibit 11.)

In Southeast, net migration losses led to some decline in the population between 2000 and 2010, but the region gained residents between 2010 and 2011.

Relocations within the state

Migration within Alaska often brings to mind the large numbers of people moving from villages to urban areas — particularly to Anchorage and Mat-Su — but that’s only part of the story. While Anchorage and Mat-Su attract migrants each year from rural areas, they also lose a large number of people to both rural and other areas of the state. (See Exhibit 12.)

PFD records show that between 2000 and 2010, the Anchorage/Mat-Su Region gained about 5,100 people per year from elsewhere in Alaska, but also lost about 3,700 each year.

As with state-to-state migration, a region’s size and location play an important role in these pat-terns. For example, the Anchorage/Mat-Su Re-gion — which has the most people moving in and out by far — holds more than half the state’s population, and is centrally located.

The Gulf Coast Region gained more than 500 residents each year since 2006, due in part to those who move to the Kenai Peninsula from neighboring Anchorage. Annual turnover be-tween the Gulf Coast and Anchorage/Mat-Su is also signifi cant.


Yearly Net Migration by Borough or Census AreaAlaska, 2000 to 201010

Yukon-Koyukuk

North Slope

Bethel

Nome

Valdez-Cordova

Northwest Arctic

Denali

DillinghamKenai

Peninsula

Yakutat

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Matanuska-Susitna

Southeast Fairbanks

Sitka

Aleutians East

Hoonah-Angoon

Kodiak Island

Petersburg

Juneau

Wrangell

Haines

Fairbanks North Star

Ketchikan Gateway

Prince of Wales-Hyder

Aleutians West

Anchorage

Bristol Bay

Skagway

2,261

100 - 250

0 - 100

-250 - 0


The Interior Region’s migration is largely tied to Fairbanks, but also to regular movement be-tween Anchorage/Mat-Su and other parts of the state.

In-state migration for the Southeast Region is mainly characterized by people in the state’s major population centers moving to and from Alaska’s capital in Juneau, as well as migration between the region and Anchorage/Mat-Su.

Migration for the Northern and Southwest re-gions is often connected to hubs such as Barrow, Bethel, Dillingham, Kotzebue, and Nome; and also to Fairbanks and Anchorage — particularly at college age. These regions generally have net losses to other parts of the state, but PFD data show Southwest gained 72 people overall from Anchorage/Mat-Su in 2010–2011. In other words, during that year at least, the number of people leaving Anchorage for Southwest com-munities was larger than the number moving to Anchorage from those communities.

Alaska Native majority areas

Eight boroughs and census areas have popula-tions that are more than 50 percent Alaska Native (see Exhibit 13), and their migration patterns are of unique interest.

The total population for these areas is 62,983 as of the 2010 Census: 9 percent of the state’s total of 710,231. These areas are 80 percent Alaska Native on average, in contrast to 17 percent state-wide. Approximately 85 percent of these areas’ residents were born in Alaska — considerably more than the 39 percent statewide.

Based on PFD data, annual migration out of these areas averaged slightly more than 4,500 for 2000 to 2010, and migration into Alaska Native areas averaged just under 3,600. Native majority areas lose population to migration each year, but they also have a higher number of children per family, which offsets the migration losses.

Of those who left majority Native areas, 2,364


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Yukon-KoyukukCensus Area

North SlopeBorough

BethelCensus Area

NomeCensus Area

Northwest ArcticBorough

DillinghamCensus Area

Wade HamptonCensus Area

Lake and PeninsulaBorough

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86%

97%

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57%

86%

80%

78%

72%

Alaska Native Majority AreasAlaska, 201013


per year went elsewhere in Alaska, and 2,163 left the state. (See Exhibit 14.)

Of those who moved to a majority Native area, 1,513 per year arrived from another part of Alaska, and 2,065 came from outside the state.

Within Alaska, most of these areas’ movements are to and from Anchorage, with much smaller but consistent numbers moving to and from Fair-banks, the Kenai Peninsula, and Mat-Su. Due to small numbers and fewer data sources, moves to and from outside of Alaska are harder to track, but other states with large numbers of Alaska Natives are Washington (12,485), Oregon (3,190), and Florida (1,115).

Gross migration by age and sex to and from these areas follows the overall pattern of high numbers at young ages, decreasing to high school age, then jumping sharply at age 18 with a gradual decline from the mid-20s on. Though men have higher overall rates of migration between Native major-ity areas and all other places, women have higher post-high school rates of relocation between Na-

Native Majority AreasYearly migration, 2000 to 201014

Note: Based on Permanent Fund Dividend dataSource: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Devel-opment, Research and Analysis Section

Out of Nativemajority areas

Into Nativemajority areas

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

2,163 2,065

2,364

1,513

Outside stateRest of Alaska

tive majority areas and Anchorage.

Of Alaskans in these areas who were 18 in 2005, 73 percent still lived in a Native majority area or had returned in 2010, and 12 percent lived else-


where in Alaska. The remaining 15 percent didn’t apply for a PFD , so their status was unknown. Many had likely moved outside the state.

As with all areas, the reasons people migrate to and from majority Alaska Native areas are com-plex and varied. People at certain ages, particu-larly those looking to start a career or further their education, have a tendency to move more.

However, the overall net gains and losses are best understood through incentives. There is a rural-to-urban migration trend throughout the world be-cause people in remote locations have incentives to move to more populated areas with more job opportunities and amenities, and this holds true in Alaska.

Where to fi nd migration dataFor annual estimates of migration, including data from the Alaska Permanent Fund, Internal Revenue Service, and the American Community Survey, go to labor.alaska.gov/research. Click “Population and Census,” then select “Migration Data and Information.”

by eddie hunsinger and david howell, …laborstats.alaska.gov/trends/apr12art1.pdfby eddie hunsinger...

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