by kimball brace, president election data services, inc. february, 2011 common data format : data...
TRANSCRIPT
By Kimball Brace, President
Election Data Services, Inc. February, 2011
Common Data Format:Data Usage in Election
Administration
Election Data Services, Inc.
• Been collecting and analyzing election returns since 1977
• Kept track of voting equipment usage for nation since 1980
• Compiled extensive databases of election results and census demographics for redistricting in more than half the nation over past 4 apportionments
• Testified in more than 75 court cases, many concerning racial analysis of data
• Maintains County level database of election returns for nation
• Contractor for EAC for their 2004 & 2006 Election Day Survey, subcontractor for 2008 & 2010
2010
Who is Election Data Services, Inc.?Since 1986, we’ve been on your wall.
In 2010/11 you’ll need a larger wall
Who is Election Data Services, Inc.?
If it concerns elections,
And it deals with data …
We’re probably involved
Overview
• Diversity in Elections – Basic Facts
• Data Elements
• Remaining Problems
Basic Election Administration Facts
• Diversity is the underpinning of Elections.
50 States3,140 Counties1,620 NE Townships5,312 Midwest Townships
10,072 Election Jurisdictions
Basic Election Administration Facts
• Size is important to remember− Question: What is the mean size of jurisdictions
in nation in terms of registration? • 1,492 registered voters
− Over 1/3rd of nations’ counties have fewer than 10,000 registered voters in them
− Half of the nation’s counties have less than 16,000 registered voters
− Only 343 jurisdictions have more than 100,000 registered voters
− Only 14 counties have more than 1 million voters• Smallest County: Loving County, Texas: 136 voters• Largest County: Los Angeles, CA: 3.9 million voters
−Take 930 smallest counties to reach LA’s total.
Basic Election Administration Facts
Basic Election Administration Facts
Basic Election Administration Facts
• Elections are run in small jurisdictions− With small staff− Many of which are part-time or performing
other functions
• Reliance upon vendors for help− Observation on data elements
The Election Process – From a data prospective
Total Population
Voting Age Population
Citizen Voting Age Population
Registration
TurnoutVotes for President
Other Statewide OfficesCongressional
StateLegislature
Census Political
TIGER/Line® Files
Other Boundaries
Precinct and
Electoral District
Boundaries
Redistricting Summary
(PL 94-171). ACS Files, Citizenship
Data
Election Returns
and Voting Statistics
Tabular
Spatial
Redistricting Data Cube
© Election Data Services, Inc.
Source of data
Typ
e o
f D
ata
20102000
1990 ?
20102008
20062004
2002
EARLIER?
Turn-out
• Still don’t know total number of people who participated in the last presidential general election.−Definitions of turn-out,
ballots cast, ballots counted.
903 Jurisdictions in 21 states
have same number of people turning out,
as that voted for President of the US
Drop – off (or Residual Votes)
• 2004 was lowest rate in post WWII history.
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Year
Dro
p-O
ff R
ate
Residual Votes or Drop-off• Difference between Total Turnout and
Total Votes for an office = − Overvotes +− Undervotes
• Normal elections− Overvotes = 10% of residual vote− Undervotes = 90% of residual vote
• Florida 2000 – opposite of above− Problem of ballot design
• Problem is getting overs & unders− Need for every office on ballot
2000 Presidential General Election
Type of Device Percent of
Counties
Percent of
Registered Voters
Punch card 16.8 28.2
Datavote 1.4 2.7
Lever 14.3 16.7
Paper Ballots 11.8 1.4
Optical Scan 41.9 30.3
Electronic 9.3 12.0
Mixed 4.4 8.7
Unrecorded Votes in the 2000 Presidential Election by Voting Equipment
Voting Technology Unrecorded Votes
Punch Card – Votomatic (28% of ballots)
2.8%
Optical Scan – Central Count (15% of ballots)
1.8%
DRE (11% of ballots) 1.7%
Lever Machine (15% of ballots)
1.6%
Paper Ballot (1% of ballots) 1.6%
Punch Card – Datavote (3% of ballots)
1.2%
Mixed (6% of ballots) 1.1%
Optical Scan – Precinct Count (20% of ballots)
0.9%
Current Problems
• Besides getting data & data elements
• Voting Equipment Change & Diversity− Over 74% of jurisdictions changed VE since 2000− Formerly, all voters in jurisdiction used same VE
• Analysis was easier, all voting patterns attributed to type of machine in use.
− Now most jurisdictions have multiple voting systems
• In-precinct system different than absentee, early• Unless votes are attributed to different voting
processes, analyzing voting equipment problems now harder to do cleanly.
Registration
• Not all states report registration the same− 24 states & DC: “Active” voters only− 25 states: Combine “Active” & “In-actives”− 1 state (CA): Different determination in each
county
2004
2006 survey findings -- Registration
Registration of Voting Age Population
Turn-out
Conclusion
• We do not do a good job of collecting data.
• The value of data is not well explained− Election administrators don’t always see the
value− Result – data not collected or retained.
• Essential data items not defined− “Steps of data” not comprehended− Auditing concepts not incorporated in data− Counts of persons who participated in
election (turnout) should be stipulated.− Overs & Under votes should be required for
each office on the ballot
• Benefits & uses of data should be studied
Thank you
Kimball Brace
President
Election Data Services, Inc.
6171 Emerywood Court
Manassas, VA 20112
(703-580-7267 or 202-789-2004)
[email protected] or [email protected]
www.electiondataservices.com