by lukas audickas wales elections:...

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BRIEFING PAPER

Number CBP 7594, 19 May 2016

National Assembly for Wales Elections: 2016

By Lukas Audickas

Contents: 1. Introduction 2. Party summaries 3. Candidates 4. Results 5. Turnout 6. Composition of the Assembly 7. Appendix

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2 National Assembly for Wales Elections: 2016


Editor

Contributing Authors

Richard Keen, Lukas Audickas

Cover page image attributed to: National Assembly for Wales, Licensed by Creative Commons Attribution-NonComercial-ShareAlike 2.0 Generic (CC BY 2.0) / image cropped

https://www.flickr.com/photos/nationalassemblyforwales/14454670153/

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/


Contents Summary 5

Seats and votes by party 1999 to 2016 6

1. Introduction 7

2. Party summaries 9 Conservative 9 Labour 10 Liberal Democrats 11 Plaid Cymru 12 UK Independence Party 13 Green party 14 Other Parties 14

3. Candidates 15

4. Results 16 Percentage share of the vote, by party, 2011 and 2016 16 National Assembly for Wales elections: 5 May 2016 17 National Assembly for Wales elections: 5 May 2011 18

5. Turnout 19

6. Composition of the Assembly 20 Parties and regions 20 Ethnicity 20 Gender 20

7. Appendix 21 7.1 Constituency Ballot 21

Table 1: Constituency results - votes and turnout by constituency 21 Table 2: Constituency results - seats by majority (from highest to lowest percentage majority) 22 Table 3: Constituency results - party share of vote by constituency, and majority 23 Table 4: Change in share of the vote and turnout by constituency 24 Table 5: Constituency results - votes and shares by region and party 25 Table 6: Constituency ballot results - change in share of the vote by region 25 Table 7: Difference in turnout and party share of vote between constituency and regional ballots by region 25 Table 8: Constituency results - party share of vote by constituency 26 Table 9: Largest and smallest constituency majorities by party 27 Table 10: Constituencies with highest and lowest turnout in each region 27 Table 11: Highest and lowest shares of constituency vote 28

7.2 Regional ballot 29 Table 12: Regional results - votes and turnout by constituency 29 Table 13: Regional results - change in party share of vote and turnout by constituency 30 Table 14: Regional ballot results - votes and turnout by party and region 31 Table 15: Regional ballot results - party share of vote by party and region 31 Table 16: Regional ballot results - change in share of the vote by region 31

7.3 Assembly Members elected 32 Table 17: Seats won by seat type, party and region 32 Table 18a: Assembly Members elected, May 2016 33 Table 18b: Assembly Members elected, May 2016 34

Tables and underlying data in this briefing are available as Excel files via: http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7594

http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7594


Summary Labour fell short of a majority winning 29 of the 60 seats in the National Assembly. The seats won by each party were as follows:

• Conservatives 11 • Labour 29 • Liberal Democrats 1 • Plaid Cymru 12 • UKIP 7

Labour’s share of the vote fell to 33.2%, from 39.6% in 2011, but it remained the largest party in the National Assembly. Plaid Cymru have overtook the Conservatives as second largest party with 20.7%, up from 18.6%. The Conservatives polled 20.0%, 3.8% points less than in 2011. The UK Independence Party’s share has risen by 10.4% points to 12.7%, compared to 2.3% in 2011. The Liberal Democrat’ share fell to 7.1% from 9.3%, and the Green Party polled 2.7%, up from 1.8%.

Average turnout across all the constituencies and regions was 45.4%, up by 4.0% points from 2011. The highest turnout was in Cardiff North (56.8%) and Brecon & Radnorshire (56.5). The lowest turnout was in Alyn & Deeside where 34.6% voted. Following the elections, the Assembly comprises 35 men and 25 women. The overall women representation have increased by one, compared to 2011. It is three fewer than in 2007 and five fewer than in the 2003, when there was an equal number of men and women elected.

There are currently two known ethnic minority Assembly Members. Mohammad Asghar was first elected for Plaid Cymru in 2007 and then for the Conservatives in 2011 and in 2016; Vaughan Gething was elected for Labour in 2011 and re-elected in 2016.

Results in Brief

(Constituency + Regional)

Votes

Conservative 451,162 23.8% 406,443 20.0%

Labour 751,612 39.6% 673,061 33.1%

Liberal Democrat 176,608 9.3% 143,669 7.1%

Plaid Cymru 352,706 18.6% 420,922 20.7%

UKIP 43,256 2.3% 259,176 12.7%

Green 34,163 1.8% 55,413 2.7%

Others 88,634 4.7% 75,439 3.7%

Seats 2011 2016 Change

Conservative 14 11 -3

Labour 30 29 -1

Liberal Democrat 5 1 -4

Plaid Cymru 11 12 +1

UKIP 0 7 +7

Green 0 0 0

Others 0 0 0

Turnout 41.4% 45.4% +4.0%

20162011

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2011 2016

Asembly members by gender

Men Women


National Assembly for Wales seats and votes by party 1999 to 2016

Seats and votes by party 1999 to 2016

Share of seats by party 1999 2003 2007 2011 2016

ConservativeSeats 9 11 12 14 11

Constituency 1 1 5 6 6Regional 8 10 7 8 5

Share 16.2% 19.6% 21.9% 23.8% 20.0%

Constituency 15.8% 19.9% 22.4% 25.0% 21.1%Regional 16.5% 19.2% 21.5% 22.5% 18.8%

Labour

Seats 28 30 26 30 29


Share 36.5% 38.3% 30.9% 39.6% 33.1%


Liberal Democrat

Seats 6 6 6 5 1


Share 13.0% 13.4% 13.3% 9.3% 7.1%


Plaid Cymru

Seats 17 12 15 11 12


Share 29.5% 20.5% 21.7% 18.6% 20.7%


UK Independence Party

Seats - 0 0 0 7

Constituency - 0 0 0 0Regional - 0 0 0 7

Share - 2.9% 2.9% 2.3% 12.7%

Constituency - 2.3% 1.8% 0.0% 12.5%Regional - 3.5% 3.9% 4.6% 13.0%

Green

Seats 0 0 0 0 0


Share 0.1% 1.8% 1.7% 1.8% 2.7%


0%

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7 Commons Library Briefing, 17 May 2016

1. Introduction The fifth set of elections to the National Assembly for Wales took place on Thursday, 5 May 2016, simultaneously with elections to the Scottish Parliament, elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly, local authority elections in England, London authority elections and Elections for Police and Crime Commissioners across England and Wales.

The system for electing members to the National Assembly is known as the Additional Member System. Voters are given two ballot papers. The first is used to elect each of 40 constituency Assembly Members (AMs) under the traditional first-past-the-post system. The second ballot paper is used to elect four AMs from each of five electoral regions. These additional members are elected so that the total representation from each geographical area, including those members elected under first-past-the-post, corresponds more closely to the share of the votes cast for each political party in the region.

2016 was the first Assembly election when all three UK-wide parties: Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrats lost seats. This was influenced by UKIP’s performance, securing seven seats, their first the National Assembly.

Labour maintained the status of the largest party in the Assembly, but fell one seat short of a working majority. This was Labour’s second worse performance, in terms of seats won, after 2007 when they won 24 seats (5 fever than in 2016).

The Conservatives, for the first time, did not increase their seat count loosing 3 seats. Plaid Cymru regained their status as second largest party in the Assembly, with 0.7% points of votes share and one more seat than the Conservative.

Measured by number of seats gained, it was the most successful Assembly election for UKIP and the worst for the Liberal Democrats. The Liberal Democrats have lost four Assembly Members and secured just one seat.

Data in this publication:

Data in this research paper for the number of votes cast in each ballot and for the electorates in each constituency and region has been provided by local authorities and may differ from figures reported in the media. Turnout is measured as the number of valid votes divided by the electorate. Some Returning Officers include rejected ballots in their calculation of turnout, leading to higher measures of turnout than those reported here.

Regional seats are assigned as follows: The votes for each party are summed, and divided by the number of seats the party has already gained in the constituencies plus one. The first seat is then awarded to the party with the most votes. The process is repeated, taking the newly assigned seat into account until all regional seats are filled.


National Assembly for Wales constituency ballot winners: 2016


2. Party summaries Conservative

Change in share of the vote between 2016 and 2016 by region Conservative's share of votes and seats

-15% -10% -5% 0% +5% +10%+15%

All regions

South Wales West

South Wales East

South Wales Central

North Wales

Mid and West WalesConstituency ballot

Regional ballot

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1999 2003 2007 2011 2016

Vote share

% Seats

The Conservatives polled 20.0% of the total vote, 21.1% of the constituency vote and 18.8 % of the regional vote. They lost three seats, taking their total representation in the Assembly down to 11 AMs, making them the third largest party.

Their highest share of the vote was in North Wales. This was also the region where their share of the constituency vote decreased the most (by 4.6% points, from 30.7% in 2011 to 26.0%).

The Conservatives’ share of the constituency vote decreased most in Ynys Mon, where it fell by 17.7 % points, from 29.2% to 11.5%.

This was the first Assembly election when the Conservatives have not increased their vote share. Prior to 2016 they were the only party in the Assembly to have consistently increased the share of the vote in subsequent Assembly elections. From 1999 to 2011 their share of the

total vote increased at every Assembly election by an average of 2.5% points, before dropping by 3.8% points in 2016.

ConservativeMap 1: Conservative vote share

Constituency Regional Total Constituency Regional Total

Mid and West Wales 3 0 3 23.1% 20.6% 21.9%North Wales 2 1 3 26.0% 29.4% 24.1%South Wales Central 0 2 2 20.2% 18.3% 19.2%South Wales East 1 1 2 18.6% 17.2% 17.9%South Wales West 0 1 1 16.8% 15.0% 15.9%

Total 6 5 11 21.1% 18.8% 20.0%

Seats won Share of the vote

Conservative share of votes and seats Change in share of the vote between 2011 and 2016 by region


Labour

LabourThis was the third Assembly election that Labour did not secure a working majority of seats.

Labour gained the highest share of the vote with 33.1% of the total vote, 34.7% of the constituency vote and 31.5% of the regional vote. Labour also won the highest number of seats (29), one fewer, compared with the 2011 election.

Labour’s share of the vote decreased by 7.6% points in the constituency ballot and by 5.4% in the regional ballot. Their highest share of the vote in any region was in South Wales West. This was also the region where their constituency vote share deceased the most, by 9.7% points, from 55.1% in 2011 to 45.4%.

Labour’s highest share of the vote in any constituency was in Ogmore, where they won 55.2% of the constituency ballot. The largest decline in support for Labour was reported in Rhondda constituency, where they lost 27.3% of constituency votes compared to 2011.

Map 2: Labour vote share

Change in share of the vote between 2016 and 2016 by region Labour's share of votes and seats

-15% -10% -5% 0% +5% +10%+15%

All regions

South Wales West

South Wales East

South Wales Central

North Wales

Mid and West Wales Constituency ballot

Regional ballot

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1999 2003 2007 2011 2016

Vote share % Seats

Change in share of the vote between 2011 and 2016 by region Labour share of votes and seats



Total 27 2 29 34.7% 31.5% 33.1%



Liberal Democrats

Change in share of the vote between 2011 and 2016 by region Liberal Democrat share of votes and seats

Liberal Democrats

The Liberal Democrats gained support in only two constituencies: Brecon & Radnorshire and Clwyd South. Their largest gain was in Brecon & Radnorshire, where their share of the vote increased by 9.3% points, from 43.1% in 2011 to 52.4%.

The Liberal Democrats received 7.1% of the total vote, 7.7% of the constituency vote and 6.5% of the regional vote, winning only one seat. Overall, this is 2.2% points less and four seats fewer than in 2011. This was the worst performance for the Liberal Democrats in any Assembly election so far.

It is a notable change from their long-term position in Wales, which had been relatively stable. In Assembly elections prior to 2011 the Liberal Democrats consistently polled between 13.0% and 13.5% of the total vote, before losing 4.0% points in 2011.

The largest reduction in the Liberal Democrats’ share of the vote took place in Newport East, where their share of the constituency vote fell by 11.9% points, from 19.1% in 2011 to 7.2%. Across the whole of the South Wales East region, which includes the Newport constituencies, the Liberal Democrats’ share of the constituency vote fell by 4.0% points.

Map 3: Liberal Democrat vote share



Total 1 0 1 7.7% 6.5% 7.1%


-15% -10% -5% 0% +5% +10% +15%

All regions

South Wales West

South Wales East

South Wales Central

North Wales


Regional ballot

0%

10%

20%

30%

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1999 2003 2007 2011 2016

Vote share

% Seats

Liberal Democrat


Plaid Cymru

Plaid Cymru

Plaid Cymru polled 20.7% of the total vote, 20.5% of the constituency vote and 20.8% of the regional vote and became the second largest party after overtaking the Conservatives by 0.7% points.

They gained one seat, taking their total representation in the Assembly to 12 AMs. Plaid Cymru’s highest share of the vote in any region was in Mid and West Wales, where they polled 26.9% of total constituency vote.

The largest increase in regional vote share was recorded in South Wales Central region, where it rose by 7.2% points, from 13.7 in 2011 to 20.9%.

Plaid Cymru’s share of the constituency vote increased most in Blaenau Gwent, where it rose by 31.2% points, from 5.4% to 36.6%.

Map 4: Plaid Cymru vote share

-15% -5% +5% +15%

All regions

South Wales West

South Wales East

South Wales Central

North Wales


Regional ballot

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1999 2003 2007 2011 2016

Vote share

% Seats

Change in share of the vote between 2011 and 2016 by region Plaid Cymru share of votes and seats



Total 6 6 12 20.5% 20.8% 20.7%

Share of the voteSeats won



Map 5: UK Independence Party vote share

UK Independence Party For the first time the UK Independence Party was elected to The National Assembly for Wales.

UKIP polled 12.7% of the total vote, 12.5% of the constituency vote, 13.0% of the regional vote, and won seven seats. Overall, this is 10.5% of vote. The best performance for UKIP in any Assembly election so far.

UKIP’s highest share of the vote in any region was in South Wales East, where they received 18.1%. UKIP did not field any constituency candidates in the 2011 election. They gained their highest share of the constituency vote (22.6%) in Torfaen constituency.

UKIP increased their share of the regional ballot in every region. Their regional vote share across Wales increased by 8.4% points from 4.6% in 2011 to 13.0%. Their strongest regional performance was in South Wales East, where they polled 17.8% of the regional vote.



Total 0 7 7 12.5% 13.0% 12.7%


-20% -10% 0% +10% +20%

All regions

South Wales West

South Wales East

South Wales Central

North Wales

Mid and West Wales Constituencyballot

Regional ballot

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1999 2003 2007 2011 2016

Vote share

% Seats

Change in share of the vote between 2011 and 2016 by region UKIP share of votes and seats


Green party

Other Parties

The Green Party raised had candidates in a majority of constituencies and in all five regions, but did not win any seats.

They received 2.7% of the total vote, 2.5% of the constituency vote and 3.0% of the regional vote.

Overall, this is 0.9% points more than in 2011, the best performance of the Greens compared to any prior Assembly election.

The Green Party’s share of the regional vote fell from 3.4% to 3.0%. However, their share of constituency vote increased notably, from 0.2% in 2011 to 2.5%.

The Green Party performed the best in Ceredigion and Cardiff Central constituencies, with 6.2% and 5.9% of regional vote respectively.

Green

Other partiesOther political parties (not included in party summaries above) and independent candidates received 3.7% of the total vote, 1.0% of the constituency vote and 6.4% of the regional vote. None of these parties secured any constituency or regional seats.

The highest increase in share of regional votes for other parties (3.1%) was recorded in Mid and West Wales region. Whereas, in South Wales East the regional ballot share fell the most, by 3.3% points.

Other parties’ share of constituency votes generally did not increase in any of the regions. The highest decrease, of 7.7% points, was recorded in the South Wales East region.

None of the other individual political parties gained more than 1% of constituency vote.

The Abolish The Welsh Assembly Party, was the only other party to receive more than 1% of regional votes. They received 4.4% of total regional votes..

0%

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20%

1999 2003 2007 2011 2016

Green Party vote share

Change in share of the vote between 2011 and 2016 by region

-10% 0% +10%

All regions

South Wales West

South Wales East

South Wales Central

North Wales

Mid and West Wales

Constituency ballot Regional ballot

-10% 0% +10%

All regions

South Wales West

South Wales East

South Wales Central

North Wales

Mid and West Wales

Constituency ballot Regional ballot

Change in share of the vote between 2011 and 2016 by region

Constituency Regional Total

Mid and West Wales 3.1% 3.8% 3.4%North Wales 1.5% 3.1% 1.9%South Wales Central 2.8% 3.4% 3.1%South Wales East 2.4% 2.5% 2.5%South Wales West 2.5% 2.6% 2.5%

Total 2.5% 3.0% 2.7%

Share of the vote

Constituency Regional Total

Mid and West Wales 1.8% 7.3% 4.6%North Wales 0.1% 6.9% 3.5%South Wales Central 0.6% 6.7% 3.6%South Wales East 1.3% 5.4% 3.3%South Wales West 2.5% 5.5% 3.4%

Total 1.0% 6.4% 3.7%

Share of the vote

0%

10%

1999 2003 2007 2011 2016

Green Party vote share

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwi9pb-NhuHMAhWCKsAKHX6zAewQFggcMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fabolishthewelshassemblyparty.co.uk%2F&usg=AFQjCNFvYQ3cHdvC9fOf21b-dfYD7r3oBg&sig2=0WKUPAqciFEi2Q512LCaYA&bvm=bv.122129774,d.bGs


3. Candidates Over 300 of regional and nearly 250 of constituency candidates stood for election to The National Assembly for Wales on 5 May 2016.

On average, across Wales there were 6.2 candidates per constituency. This is just above the UK average (6.1), comparing to the last general election in 2015.

Data collection1 The gender of candidates is not systematically recorded and data is only available from the third party sources. Information about National Assembly for Wales election candidates is collected using Democracy Club data. The gender of some candidates was assigned on the basis of their first name in absence of other information.

Gender by region The gender balance among regional and constituency candidates was roughly the same. From all the regional and constituency candidates around one-third (34%) were women.

The South Wales Central regions had the most proportional gender balance among candidates. There, around 41% of candidates were women. There was a similar gender balance was in the South Wales West region, where 61% of candidates were male. The largest gender disparity was recoded in the South Wales East region where 30% of candidates were women.

Gender by party The Wales Green Party had the most equal gender distribution among regional candidates. Half (50%) of the Green Party regional candidates were women. Labour Party had the highest number of women on its regional lists (60%).

Two-fifths (42%) of Green Party constituency candidates were females. Followed by 38% Liberal Democrats and 37% Labour’s candidates.

30% of UK Independence Party and around 34% of Conservative regional candidates were women.

The Conservative Party had the lowest proportion of female constituency candidates. Less than a quarter (23%) of their candidates were women.

1 Democracy Club (2016) Member of the National Assembly for Wales

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Regionalcadidates

Constituencycandidates

Constituency and regional candidates

by gender

Women Men

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Conservative

Labour Party

Liberal Democrats

Plaid Cymru


Green Party

Regional candidates by gender and party

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Mid and West Wales

North Wales

South Wales Central

South Wales East

South Wales West

Regional candidates by gender and region

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Conservative

Labour Party

Liberal Democrats

Plaid Cymru


Green Party

Constituency candidates by gender and party

https://democracyclub.org.uk/about/

https://democracyclub.org.uk/about/

https://candidates.democracyclub.org.uk/help/api


4. Results The reference table below provides regional and constituency results for the National Assembly for Wales Election in 2016 and 2011. This compares regional and constituency ballot results by percentage share of vote.

For detailed results by party refer to “Party Summary” section (pp. 7-12)

Percentage share of the vote, by party, 2011 and 2016

Constituency Region All votes

Conservative 21.1% 18.8% 20.0%

Labour 34.7% 31.5% 33.1%

Liberal Democrat 7.7% 6.5% 7.1%

Plaid Cymru 20.5% 20.8% 20.7%

UKIP 12.5% 13.0% 12.7%

Green 2.5% 3.0% 2.7%

Others 1.0% 6.4% 3.7%

Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%


Conservative 25.0% 22.5% 23.8%

Labour 42.3% 36.9% 39.6%

Liberal Democrat 10.6% 8.0% 9.3%

Plaid Cymru 19.3% 17.9% 18.6%

UKIP 0.0% 4.6% 2.3%

Green 0.2% 3.4% 1.8%

Others 2.7% 6.7% 3.7%

Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%


Conservative -3.9% -3.7% -3.8%

Labour -7.6% -5.4% -6.5%

Liberal Democrat -2.9% -1.6% -2.2%

Plaid Cymru +1.3% +3.0% +2.1%

UKIP +12.5% +8.5% +10.5%

Green +2.3% -0.5% +0.9%

Others -1.7% -0.2% 0.0%

2016 Assembly election

2011 Assembly election

Change 2011-2016


The table below summarises the 2016 regional and constituency ballot results. This table also includes total number of candidates by party and seat distribution.

National Assembly for Wales elections: 5 May 2016

.

Candidates Votes % of total Seats won Change

Conservative 40 215,597 21.1% 6 0

Labour 40 353,865 34.7% 27 -1

Liberal Democrat 40 78,165 7.7% 1 0

Plaid Cymru 40 209,374 20.5% 6 +1

UKIP 38 127,038 12.5% 0 0

Green 36 25,202 2.5% 0 0

Others 14 10,139 1.0% 0 0

Total 248 1,019,380 100.0% 40


Conservative 35 190,846 18.8% 5 -3

Labour 20 319,196 31.5% 2 0

Liberal Democrat 33 65,504 6.5% 0 -4

Plaid Cymru 59 211,548 20.8% 6 0

UKIP 20 132,138 13.0% 7 +7

Green 24 30,211 3.0% 0 0

Others 114 65,300 6.4% 0 0

Total 305 1,014,743 100.0% 20


Conservative 75 406,443 20.0% 11 -3

Labour 60 673,061 33.1% 29 -1

Liberal Democrat 73 143,669 7.1% 1 -4

Plaid Cymru 99 420,922 20.7% 12 +1

UKIP 58 259,176 12.7% 7 +7

Green 60 55,413 2.7% 0 0

Others 128 75,439 3.7% 0 0

Total 553 2,034,123 100.0% 60

Total

Constituency ballot

Regional ballot


The final reference table in this section looks at 2011 election results. It includes total number of candidates by party and seat distribution.

National Assembly for Wales elections: 5 May 2011

Candidates Votes % of total Seats won

Conservative 40 237,389 25.0% 6

Labour 40 401,677 42.3% 28

Liberal Democrat 40 100,259 10.6% 1

Plaid Cymru 40 182,907 19.3% 5

UKIP - - - 0

Green 1 1,514 0.2% 0

Others 16 25,507 2.7% 0

Total 177 949,253 100.0% 40


Conservative 42 213,773 22.5% 8

Labour 20 349,935 36.9% 2


Plaid Cymru 20 169,799 17.9% 6

UKIP - * 43,256 4.6% 0

Green - * 32,649 3.4% 0

Others 115 * 63,127 6.7% 0

Total 222 948,888 100.0% 20


Conservative 82 451,162 23.8% 14

Labour 60 751,612 39.6% 30


Plaid Cymru 60 352,706 18.6% 11

UKIP - * 43,256 2.3% 0

Green - * 34,163 1.8% 0

Others 131 * 88,634 4.7% 0

Total 399 1,898,141 100.0% 60Note: * Number of Regional UKIP and Green candidates is included in total count for others

Total

Constituency ballot

Regional ballot


5. Turnout Turnout is measured as the number of valid votes divided by the electorate.

The overall turnout across Wales in both the constituency and regional ballots was 45.4%, up by 4.0% points from 2011. The highest turnout was in Cardiff North and Brecon & Radnorshire, where 56.8% and 56.5% of the electorate cast valid ballots. The lowest turnout was in Alyn & Deeside, where 34.6% of eligible voters participated.

The region with the highest turnout was Mid and West Wales, with a turnout of 51.4% (2.8% points increase since 2011). The region with the lowest turnout was South Wales East, where turnout was 42.7% (4.2% points increase since 2011).

Constituencies within each region with the highest and lowest turnout

Region Constituency Turnout

Highest turnout

South Wales Central Cardiff North 56.8%

Mid and West Wales Brecon & Radnorshire 56.5%

North Wales Arfon 50.9%

South Wales West Gower 49.8%

South Wales East Monmouth 48.9%

Lowest turnout

South Wales Central Cynon Valley 38.2%

Mid and West Wales Dwyfor Meirionnydd 46.8%

North Wales Alyn & Deeside 34.6%

South Wales West Swansea East 35.7%

South Wales East Newport East 37.1%

Map 6: National Assembly for Wales - 2016 Turnout

Increase in turnout by region, 2011-2016

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8%

Mid and West Wales

North Wales

South Wales Central

South Wales East

South Wales West

Total


6. Composition of the Assembly Parties and regions A majority of constituency seats in South Wales Central, South Wales East and South Wales West regions are held by Labour Members. This party won 21 out of 23 constituency seats in these areas. The remaining two seats are held by Plaid Cymru (Rhondda) and Conservatives (Monmouth).

Constituency seats in Mid and West Wales region is more diversely distributed: both Plaid Cymru and Conservatives secured three seats each. In Lianelli and Brecon & Radnorshire constituencies Labour and Liberal Democrats had the largest majorities.

Four of constituency seats in the North Wales region are held by Labour. Conservatives and Plaid Cymru have two seats each.

Regional seats are less dominated by Labour. UKIP has the highest number of regional seats (7), followed by the Plaid Cymru (6) and Conservatives (5). Labour had gained two regional seats.

Ethnicity There are currently two known ethnic minority Assembly members2.

Mohammad Asghar was first elected for Plaid Cymru in 2007 and was re-elected for the Conservatives in 2011 and in 2016. He became the first AM to cross the floor of the Assembly in December 2009.

Vaughan Gething was elected for Labour in 2011 and was re-elected in 2016. He is the second minority ethnic candidate to be elected to the Assembly.

Gender Following the elections, the Assembly comprises 35 men and 25 women. The overall women representation have increased by one, compared to 2011. It is three fewer than in 2007 and five fewer than in the 2003, when there was an equal number of men and women elected.

2 Ethnicity of Assembly Members is not systematically recorded. It is a self-defined factor,

and information about it is only available from third-party sources.

Map 7: National Assembly for Wales – 2016 Constituency seat winners

Assembly members by gender, 1999-2016

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

2016

2011

2007

2003

1999

Women Men


7. Appendix

7.1 Constituency Ballot Table 1: Constituency results - votes and turnout by constituency

CON LAB LD PC UKIP GRN Others Total Electorate Turnout Majority

Mid and West Wales

Brecon and Radnorshire 7,728 2,703 15,898 1,180 2,161 697 0 30,367 53,793 56.5% 8,170

Carmarthenshire East and Dinefwr 4,489 5,727 837 14,427 3,474 797 0 29,751 55,395 53.7% 8,700

Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire

10,355 6,982 699 5,459 3,300 804 1,638 29,237 56,886 51.4% 3,373

Ceredigion 2,075 1,902 9,606 12,014 2,665 1,223 0 29,485 52,540 56.1% 2,408

Dwyfor Meirionnydd 1,655 6,800 577 10,962 0 743 1,259 20,236 43,279 46.8% 8,156

Llanelli 1,937 10,267 355 9,885 4,132 427 1,113 28,116 59,651 47.1% 382

Montgomeryshire 9,875 1,389 6,536 2,410 2,458 932 0 23,600 48,674 48.5% 3,339

Preseli Pembrokeshire 11,123 7,193 1,677 3,957 3,286 1,161 0 28,397 56,414 50.3% 3,930

North Wales

Aberconwy 7,646 6,039 781 6,892 0 680 0 22,038 44,953 49.0% 754

Alyn and Deeside 4,558 9,922 980 1,944 3,765 527 0 21,696 62,697 34.6% 5,364

Arfon 1,655 6,800 577 10,962 0 0 0 19,994 39,252 50.9% 4,162

Clwyd South 4,846 7,862 2,289 3,861 2,827 474 0 22,159 54,169 40.9% 3,016

Clwyd West 10,831 5,246 831 5,768 2,985 565 0 26,226 57,641 45.5% 5,063

Delyn 5,898 9,480 1,718 2,269 3,794 0 0 23,159 53,489 43.3% 3,582

Vale of Clwyd 8,792 9,560 758 2,096 2,975 0 0 24,181 56,322 42.9% 768

Wrexham 6,227 7,552 1,140 2,631 2,393 411 0 20,354 51,548 39.5% 1,325

Ynys Mon 2,904 4,278 334 13,788 3,212 389 262 25,167 50,345 50.0% 9,510

South Wales Central

Cardiff Central 2,317 10,016 9,199 1,951 1,223 1,150 212 26,068 57,177 45.6% 817

Cardiff North 13,099 16,766 1,130 2,278 2,509 824 846 37,452 65,927 56.8% 3,667

Cardiff South and Penarth 6,353 13,274 1,345 4,320 3,716 1,268 0 30,276 76,110 39.8% 6,921

Cardiff West 5,617 11,381 868 10,205 2,629 1,032 228 31,960 66,040 48.4% 1,176

Cynon Valley 1,177 9,830 335 3,836 3,460 598 0 19,236 50,292 38.2% 5,994

Pontypridd 3,884 9,986 2,979 4,659 3,322 508 0 25,338 58,277 43.5% 5,327

Rhondda 528 8,432 173 11,891 2,203 259 0 23,486 49,758 47.2% 3,459

Vale of Glamorgan 13,878 14,655 938 3,871 3,662 794 0 37,798 71,177 53.1% 777

South Wales East

Blaenau Gwent 1,334 8,442 300 7,792 3,423 0 0 21,291 50,575 42.1% 650

Caerphilly 2,412 9,584 386 8,009 5,954 770 0 27,115 62,449 43.4% 1,575

Islwyn 1,775 10,050 597 4,349 4,944 594 0 22,309 54,465 41.0% 5,106

Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney 1,331 9,763 1,122 3,721 4,277 469 0 20,683 45,227 45.7% 5,486

Monmouth 13,585 8,438 1,474 1,824 3,092 910 2,078 31,401 64,197 48.9% 5,147

Newport East 3,768 9,229 1,481 1,386 4,333 491 0 20,688 55,750 37.1% 4,896

Newport West 8,042 12,157 880 1,645 3,842 814 371 27,751 62,169 44.6% 4,115

Torfaen 3,931 9,688 628 2,860 5,190 681 0 22,978 60,246 38.1% 4,498

South Wales West

Aberavon 1,342 10,578 1,248 4,176 3,119 389 0 20,852 49,039 42.5% 6,402

Bridgend 6,543 12,166 1,087 2,569 3,919 567 0 26,851 60,195 44.6% 5,623

Gower 10,153 11,982 1,033 2,982 3,300 737 0 30,187 60,637 49.8% 1,829

Neath 2,179 9,468 746 6,545 3,780 589 2,056 25,363 55,370 45.8% 2,923

Ogmore 2,587 12,895 698 3,427 3,233 516 0 23,356 54,669 42.7% 9,468

Swansea East 1,729 10,726 1,574 2,744 3,274 529 0 20,576 57,594 35.7% 7,452

Swansea West 3,934 9,014 2,012 3,225 3,058 883 76 22,202 54,601 40.7% 5,080


Table 2: Constituency results - seats by majority (from highest to lowest percentage majority)

Elected

Constituency candidate Votes Rank % Rank

Ogmore Huw Irranca-Davies LAB PC 9,468 2 40.5% 1

Ynys Mon Rhun Ap Iorwerth PC LD 9,510 1 37.8% 2

Swansea East Mike Hedges LAB UKIP 7,452 5 36.2% 3

Cynon Valley Vikki Howells LAB PC 5,994 8 31.2% 4

Aberavon David Rees LAB PC 6,402 7 30.7% 5

Carmarthenshire East and Dinefwr

Adam Price PC LAB 8,700 3 29.2% 6

Brecon and Radnorshire Kirsty Williams LD CON 8,170 4 26.9% 7

Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney Dawn Bowden LAB UKIP 5,486 10 26.5% 8

Alyn and Deeside Carl Sargeant LAB CON 5,364 11 24.7% 9

Newport East John Griffiths LAB UKIP 4,896 17 23.7% 10

Islwyn Rhianon Passmore LAB UKIP 5,106 14 22.9% 11

Swansea West Julie James LAB CON 5,080 15 22.9% 12

Cardiff South and Penarth Vaughan Gething LAB CON 6,921 6 22.9% 13

Pontypridd Mick Antoniw LAB PC 5,327 12 21.0% 14

Bridgend Carwyn Jones LAB CON 5,623 9 20.9% 15

Arfon Sian Gwenllian PC LD 4,162 19 20.8% 16

Dwyfor Meirionnydd Dafydd Elis-Thomas PC LD 4,162 19 20.6% 17

Torfaen Lynne Neagle LAB UKIP 4,498 18 19.6% 18

Clwyd West Darren Millar CON PC 5,063 16 19.3% 19

Monmouth Nick Ramsay CON LD 5,147 13 16.4% 20

Delyn Hannah Blythyn LAB CON 3,582 24 15.5% 21

Newport West Jayne Bryant LAB CON 4,115 21 14.8% 22

Rhondda Leanne Wood PC LD 3,459 25 14.7% 23

Montgomeryshire Russell George CON LD 3,339 27 14.1% 24

Preseli Pembrokeshire Paul Windsor Davies CON LD 3,930 22 13.8% 25

Clwyd South Ken Skates LAB CON 3,016 28 13.6% 26


Angela Burns CON LAB 3,373 26 11.5% 27

Neath Jeremy Miles LAB PC 2,923 29 11.5% 28

Cardiff North Julie Morgan LAB CON 3,667 23 9.8% 29

Ceredigion Elin Jones PC LD 2,408 30 8.2% 30

Wrexham Lesley Griffiths LAB CON 1,325 33 6.5% 31

Gower Rebecca Evans LAB CON 1,829 31 6.1% 32

Caerphilly Hefin David LAB PC 1,575 32 5.8% 33

Cardiff West Mark Drakeford LAB PC 1,176 34 3.7% 34

Aberconwy Janet Finch-Saunders CON PC 754 38 3.4% 35

Vale of Clwyd Ann Jones LAB CON 768 37 3.2% 36

Cardiff Central Jenny Rathbone LAB LD 817 35 3.1% 37

Blaenau Gwent Alun Davies LAB PC 650 39 3.1% 38

Vale of Glamorgan Jane Hutt LAB CON 777 36 2.1% 39

Llanelli Lee Waters LAB PC 382 40 1.4% 40

1st 2nd

Majority


Table 3: Constituency results - party share of vote by constituency, and majority

CON LAB LD PC UKIP GRN Others Total Majority

Mid and West Wales

Brecon and Radnorshire 25.4% 8.9% 52.4% 3.9% 7.1% 2.3% 0.0% 100.0% 26.9%

Carmarthenshire East and Dinefwr 15.1% 19.2% 2.8% 48.5% 11.7% 2.7% 0.0% 100.0% 29.2%


35.4% 23.9% 2.4% 18.7% 11.3% 2.7% 5.6% 100.0% 11.5%

Ceredigion 7.0% 6.5% 32.6% 40.7% 9.0% 4.1% 0.0% 100.0% 8.2%

Dwyfor Meirionnydd 8.2% 33.6% 2.9% 54.2% 0.0% 3.7% 6.2% 108.7% 40.3%

Llanelli 6.9% 36.5% 1.3% 35.2% 14.7% 1.5% 4.0% 100.0% 1.4%

Montgomeryshire 41.8% 5.9% 27.7% 10.2% 10.4% 3.9% 0.0% 100.0% 14.1%

Preseli Pembrokeshire 39.2% 25.3% 5.9% 13.9% 11.6% 4.1% 0.0% 100.0% 13.8%

North Wales

Aberconwy 34.7% 27.4% 3.5% 31.3% 0.0% 3.1% 0.0% 100.0% 3.4%

Alyn and Deeside 21.0% 45.7% 4.5% 9.0% 17.4% 2.4% 0.0% 100.0% 24.7%

Arfon 8.3% 34.0% 2.9% 54.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 20.8%

Clwyd South 21.9% 35.5% 10.3% 17.4% 12.8% 2.1% 0.0% 100.0% 13.6%

Clwyd West 41.3% 20.0% 3.2% 22.0% 11.4% 2.2% 0.0% 100.0% 19.3%

Delyn 25.5% 40.9% 7.4% 9.8% 16.4% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 15.5%

Vale of Clwyd 36.4% 39.5% 3.1% 8.7% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 3.2%

Wrexham 30.6% 37.1% 5.6% 12.9% 11.8% 2.0% 0.0% 100.0% 6.5%

Ynys Mon 11.5% 17.0% 1.3% 54.8% 12.8% 1.5% 1.0% 100.0% 37.8%

South Wales Central

Cardiff Central 8.9% 38.4% 35.3% 7.5% 4.7% 4.4% 0.8% 100.0% 3.1%

Cardiff North 35.0% 44.8% 3.0% 6.1% 6.7% 2.2% 2.3% 100.0% 9.8%

Cardiff South and Penarth 21.0% 43.8% 4.4% 14.3% 12.3% 4.2% 0.0% 100.0% 22.9%

Cardiff West 17.6% 35.6% 2.7% 31.9% 8.2% 3.2% 0.7% 100.0% 3.7%

Cynon Valley 6.1% 51.1% 1.7% 19.9% 18.0% 3.1% 0.0% 100.0% 31.2%

Pontypridd 15.3% 39.4% 11.8% 18.4% 13.1% 2.0% 0.0% 100.0% 21.0%

Rhondda 2.2% 35.9% 0.7% 50.6% 9.4% 1.1% 0.0% 100.0% 14.7%

Vale of Glamorgan 36.7% 38.8% 2.5% 10.2% 9.7% 2.1% 0.0% 100.0% 2.1%

South Wales East

Blaenau Gwent 6.3% 39.7% 1.4% 36.6% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 3.1%

Caerphilly 8.9% 35.3% 1.4% 29.5% 22.0% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0% 5.8%

Islwyn 8.0% 45.0% 2.7% 19.5% 22.2% 2.7% 0.0% 100.0% 22.9%

Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney 6.4% 47.2% 5.4% 18.0% 20.7% 2.3% 0.0% 100.0% 26.5%

Monmouth 43.3% 26.9% 4.7% 5.8% 9.8% 2.9% 6.6% 100.0% 16.4%

Newport East 18.2% 44.6% 7.2% 6.7% 20.9% 2.4% 0.0% 100.0% 23.7%

Newport West 29.0% 43.8% 3.2% 5.9% 13.8% 2.9% 1.3% 100.0% 14.8%

Torfaen 17.1% 42.2% 2.7% 12.4% 22.6% 3.0% 0.0% 100.0% 19.6%

South Wales West

Aberavon 6.4% 50.7% 6.0% 20.0% 15.0% 1.9% 0.0% 100.0% 30.7%

Bridgend 24.4% 45.3% 4.0% 9.6% 14.6% 2.1% 0.0% 100.0% 20.9%

Gower 33.6% 39.7% 3.4% 9.9% 10.9% 2.4% 0.0% 100.0% 6.1%

Neath 8.6% 37.3% 2.9% 25.8% 14.9% 2.3% 8.1% 100.0% 11.5%

Ogmore 11.1% 55.2% 3.0% 14.7% 13.8% 2.2% 0.0% 100.0% 40.5%

Swansea East 8.4% 52.1% 7.6% 13.3% 15.9% 2.6% 0.0% 100.0% 36.2%

Swansea West 17.7% 40.6% 9.1% 14.5% 13.8% 4.0% 0.3% 100.0% 22.9%


Table 4: Change in share of the vote and turnout by constituency

2011 2016 Change CON LAB LD PC UKIP GRN Others

Mid and West WalesBrecon and Radnorshire 52.9% 56.5% +3.5% -7.9% -8.0% +9.3% -2.8% +7.1% +2.3% 0.0%Carmarthenshire East and Dinefwr 51.3% 53.7% +2.4% -5.2% -10.8% -2.0% +3.6% +11.7% +2.7% 0.0%Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire

48.2% 51.4% +3.2% -0.4% -6.6% -1.5% -11.1% +11.3% +2.7% +5.6%

Ceredigion 51.0% 56.1% +5.1% -2.4% -2.3% -2.6% -0.6% +9.0% -1.1% 0.0%Dwyfor Meirionnydd 46.4% 46.8% +0.3% -12.3% +21.0% -2.0% +7.6% 0.0% +3.7% -9.3%Llanelli 44.3% 47.1% +2.8% -4.2% -3.2% -0.8% -4.3% +14.7% +1.5% -3.7%Montgomeryshire 47.1% 48.5% +1.4% -1.9% -5.5% -5.9% -1.1% +10.4% +3.9% 0.0%Preseli Pembrokeshire 47.1% 50.3% +3.2% -3.2% -9.1% -1.8% -1.6% +11.6% +4.1% 0.0%

North WalesAberconwy 45.1% 49.0% +3.9% +0.7% +1.7% -10.6% +5.0% 0.0% +3.1% 0.0%Alyn and Deeside 36.9% 34.6% -2.3% -7.1% -6.9% -3.1% +1.4% +17.4% +2.4% -4.2%Arfon 43.0% 50.9% +8.0% -4.2% +7.8% -1.6% -1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Clwyd South 36.8% 40.9% +4.1% -7.3% -6.9% +0.5% -1.1% +12.8% +2.1% 0.0%Clwyd West 43.4% 45.5% +2.1% -2.0% -6.4% -4.2% -1.0% +11.4% +2.2% 0.0%Delyn 43.0% 43.3% +0.3% -8.2% -5.2% -0.2% -2.8% +16.4% 0.0% 0.0%Vale of Clwyd 41.0% 42.9% +1.9% +3.0% -11.2% -1.6% -2.6% +12.3% 0.0% 0.0%Wrexham 34.9% 39.5% +4.6% +3.7% -7.7% -8.8% -1.0% +11.8% +2.0% 0.0%Ynys Mon 48.7% 50.0% +1.3% -17.7% -9.2% -1.8% +13.4% +12.8% +1.5% +1.0%

South Wales CentralCardiff Central 36.7% 45.6% +8.9% -6.2% +0.5% -2.4% +0.3% +4.7% +4.4% -1.3%Cardiff North 51.4% 56.8% +5.4% -7.4% -2.8% -1.6% +0.7% +6.7% +2.2% +2.3%Cardiff South and Penarth 36.6% 39.8% +3.2% -6.5% -6.4% -5.7% +2.2% +12.3% +4.2% 0.0%Cardiff West 43.2% 48.4% +5.2% -8.3% -11.5% -4.3% +11.9% +8.2% +3.2% +0.7%Cynon Valley 36.0% 38.2% +2.3% -2.0% -10.9% -0.9% -7.3% +18.0% +3.1% 0.0%Pontypridd 38.9% 43.5% +4.6% -0.4% -11.4% -6.1% +4.9% +13.1% +2.0% -2.1%Rhondda 38.1% 47.2% +9.1% -2.6% -27.3% -1.7% +21.1% +9.4% +1.1% 0.0%Vale of Glamorgan 46.4% 53.1% +6.7% +0.7% -8.6% -2.1% -1.9% +9.7% +2.1% 0.0%

South Wales EastBlaenau Gwent 38.0% 42.1% +4.1% +1.0% -24.3% -0.4% +31.2% +16.1% 0.0% -23.5%Caerphilly 41.2% 43.4% +2.2% -4.3% -13.6% -2.7% -0.2% +22.0% +2.8% -4.0%Islwyn 38.1% 41.0% +2.9% -4.0% -12.9% -0.4% -2.2% +22.2% +2.7% -5.3%Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney 35.1% 45.7% +10.6% +0.1% -7.1% -7.4% +9.2% +20.7% +2.3% -17.8%Monmouth 46.3% 48.9% +2.7% -7.0% -3.0% -5.1% -1.7% +9.8% +2.9% +4.1%Newport East 35.3% 37.1% +1.8% -4.9% -6.2% -11.9% -0.3% +20.9% +2.4% 0.0%Newport West 36.4% 44.6% +8.2% -4.9% -8.4% -3.7% -1.1% +13.8% +2.9% +1.3%Torfaen 36.5% 38.1% +1.6% +2.3% -4.0% -1.1% +0.3% +22.6% +3.0% -23.0%

South Wales WestAberavon 37.2% 42.5% +5.3% -7.9% -13.4% -0.8% +5.2% +15.0% +1.9% 0.0%Bridgend 40.7% 44.6% +3.9% -3.6% -10.9% -3.2% +0.9% +14.6% +2.1% 0.0%Gower 43.2% 49.8% +6.5% +3.7% -8.4% -6.5% -2.3% +10.9% +2.4% 0.0%Neath 41.5% 45.8% +4.4% -3.1% -16.1% -1.2% -0.8% +14.9% +2.3% +3.9%Ogmore 36.5% 42.7% +6.2% -3.5% -8.7% -1.9% -2.0% +13.8% +2.2% 0.0%Swansea East 31.4% 35.7% +4.3% -6.2% -6.2% -1.2% +0.9% +15.9% +2.6% -5.8%Swansea West 35.0% 40.7% +5.7% -6.3% -4.7% -7.7% +0.6% +13.8% +4.0% +0.3%

Turnout Change in share of vote 2011-2016


Table 5: Constituency results - votes and shares by region and party

Table 6: Constituency ballot results - change in share of the vote by region

Table 7: Difference in turnout and party share of vote between constituency and regional ballots by region

CON LAB LD PC UKIP GRN Others Total Electorate Turnout

Mid and West Wales 50,742 38,606 36,524 58,898 23,625 6,784 4,010 219,189 426,632 51.4%North Wales 53,357 66,739 9,408 50,211 21,951 3,046 262 204,974 470,416 43.6%South Wales Central 46,853 94,340 16,967 43,011 22,724 6,433 1,286 231,614 494,758 46.8%South Wales East 36,178 77,351 6,868 31,586 35,055 4,729 2,449 194,216 455,078 42.7%South Wales West 28,467 76,829 8,398 25,668 23,683 4,210 2,132 169,387 392,105 43.2%All regions 215,597 353,865 78,165 209,374 127,038 25,202 10,139 1,019,380 2,238,989 45.5%

Mid and West Wales 23.1% 17.6% 16.7% 26.9% 10.8% 3.1% 1.8% 100.0%North Wales 26.0% 32.6% 4.6% 24.5% 10.7% 1.5% 0.1% 100.0%South Wales Central 20.2% 40.7% 7.3% 18.6% 9.8% 2.8% 0.6% 100.0%South Wales East 18.6% 39.8% 3.5% 16.3% 18.0% 2.4% 1.3% 100.0%South Wales West 16.8% 45.4% 5.0% 15.2% 14.0% 2.5% 1.3% 100.0%All regions 21.1% 34.7% 7.7% 20.5% 12.5% 2.5% 1.0% 100.0%

CON LAB LD PC UKIP GRN Others Total

Mid and West Wales -3.8% -5.8% -0.6% -2.4% +10.8% +2.4% -0.7% 0.0%

North Wales -4.6% -5.4% -3.4% +1.6% +10.7% +1.5% 0.0% 0.4%

South Wales Central -4.2% -9.2% -3.2% +3.9% +9.8% +2.8% 0.0% -0.1%

South Wales East -2.9% -9.5% -4.0% +3.6% +18.0% +2.4% -4.2% 3.5%

South Wales West -3.3% -9.7% -3.4% +0.1% +14.0% +2.5% 0.0% 0.1%

All regions -3.9% -7.6% -2.9% +1.3% +12.5% +2.3% 0.0% 1.7%

CON LAB LD PC UKIP GRN Others Turnout

Mid and West Wales +2.6% -1.8% +5.8% +0.6% -0.8% -0.7% -5.5% +0.8%North Wales +3.8% +4.4% +0.0% +1.2% -1.8% -0.9% -6.8% +0.1%South Wales Central +2.0% +6.8% +0.9% -2.4% -0.6% -0.7% -6.1% +0.1%South Wales East +1.5% +1.5% +0.0% +1.0% +0.3% -0.1% -4.2% +0.0%South Wales West +1.8% +5.8% -1.5% -2.0% +0.3% -0.1% -4.3% +0.1%All regions +2.3% +3.3% +1.2% -0.3% -0.6% -0.5% -5.4% +0.2%


Table 8: Constituency results - party share of vote by constituency


Mid and West Wales

Brecon and Radnorshire 25.4% 14.8% 30.2% 7.3% 8.8% 3.8% 9.7% 100.0%

Carmarthenshire East and Dinefwr 14.5% 20.0% 3.1% 43.2% 11.4% 2.7% 5.1% 100.0%

Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire 28.5% 24.2% 2.9% 21.0% 13.0% 3.0% 7.5% 100.0%

Ceredigion 9.9% 10.2% 20.4% 37.2% 10.3% 6.2% 5.8% 100.0%

Dwyfor Meirionnydd 16.6% 13.7% 3.6% 44.5% 11.4% 3.8% 6.3% 100.0%

Llanelli 8.0% 37.4% 1.1% 30.8% 14.2% 1.9% 6.6% 100.0%

Montgomeryshire 32.0% 8.9% 20.2% 12.2% 11.6% 5.1% 10.1% 100.0%

Preseli Pembrokeshire 31.1% 23.7% 4.1% 17.0% 12.1% 4.3% 7.7% 100.0%

North Wales

Aberconwy 26.3% 22.5% 3.8% 27.2% 10.6% 2.5% 7.1% 100.0%

Alyn and Deeside 22.1% 38.7% 3.3% 9.2% 16.1% 2.1% 8.5% 100.0%

Arfon 6.9% 24.2% 2.9% 50.3% 6.9% 3.5% 5.3% 100.0%

Clwyd South 20.2% 31.3% 8.9% 18.6% 12.7% 2.4% 5.9% 100.0%

Clwyd West 32.2% 19.9% 3.7% 23.1% 12.4% 2.2% 6.4% 100.0%

Delyn 23.3% 34.6% 6.0% 11.6% 14.7% 1.8% 8.0% 100.0%

Vale of Clwyd 29.2% 33.2% 2.3% 13.1% 12.5% 1.7% 7.9% 100.0%

Wrexham 23.4% 32.6% 8.5% 13.1% 12.1% 3.0% 7.3% 100.0%

Ynys Mon 13.7% 18.4% 2.3% 44.0% 13.7% 2.3% 5.7% 100.0%

South Wales Central

Cardiff Central 10.2% 33.1% 28.2% 10.9% 5.9% 5.9% 5.8% 100.0%

Cardiff North 29.4% 34.2% 5.0% 12.6% 8.6% 3.1% 7.2% 100.0%

Cardiff South and Penarth 19.0% 37.3% 4.6% 14.9% 12.1% 4.9% 7.2% 100.0%

Cardiff West 16.4% 29.9% 3.8% 30.6% 8.5% 4.3% 6.4% 100.0%

Cynon Valley 6.4% 43.1% 2.0% 23.9% 16.2% 2.2% 6.1% 100.0%

Pontypridd 13.8% 35.4% 5.3% 22.1% 13.6% 2.6% 7.3% 100.0%

Rhondda 2.5% 32.3% 1.2% 48.1% 10.1% 1.5% 4.4% 100.0%

Vale of Glamorgan 32.8% 30.1% 2.8% 13.3% 10.5% 2.6% 7.9% 100.0%

South Wales East

Blaenau Gwent 5.4% 38.8% 1.5% 31.5% 15.8% 1.6% 5.3% 100.0%

Caerphilly 10.1% 34.7% 1.9% 25.9% 20.5% 2.4% 4.5% 100.0%

Islwyn 8.3% 44.5% 2.3% 16.7% 21.0% 2.0% 5.2% 100.0%

Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney 6.5% 46.7% 3.3% 16.4% 20.4% 2.0% 4.7% 100.0%

Monmouth 37.2% 25.6% 6.0% 8.5% 11.8% 3.9% 7.1% 100.0%

Newport East 19.0% 40.6% 5.9% 7.7% 19.7% 2.2% 5.0% 100.0%

Newport West 26.1% 41.5% 3.6% 6.0% 14.8% 2.8% 5.2% 100.0%

Torfaen 15.1% 40.2% 2.8% 12.6% 21.0% 2.3% 5.9% 100.0%

South Wales West

Aberavon 6.2% 45.9% 5.4% 21.3% 14.5% 1.8% 4.9% 100.0%

Bridgend 22.6% 36.3% 5.7% 12.6% 14.2% 2.7% 6.0% 100.0%

Gower 27.2% 34.2% 5.8% 13.4% 10.4% 2.6% 6.5% 100.0%

Neath 8.2% 37.8% 4.1% 26.6% 15.1% 2.7% 5.5% 100.0%

Ogmore 10.3% 47.9% 3.6% 17.6% 13.9% 2.0% 4.7% 100.0%

Swansea East 9.1% 42.4% 10.9% 14.9% 15.7% 2.3% 4.6% 100.0%

Swansea West 15.8% 35.4% 10.9% 14.9% 12.9% 4.2% 6.0% 100.0%


Table 9: Largest and smallest constituency majorities by party

Table 10: Constituencies with highest and lowest turnout in each region

Constituency Absolute majority

Largest

Conservative Monmouth 5,147

Labour Ogmore 9,468

Liberal Democrat Brecon and Radnorshire 8,170

Plaid Cymru Ynys Mon 9,510

Smallest

Conservative Aberconwy 754

Labour Llanelli 382

Liberal Democrat Brecon and Radnorshire 8,170

Plaid Cymru Ceredigion 2,408

Constituency Percentage

majority

Largest

Conservative Monmouth 16.4%

Labour Ogmore 40.5%

Liberal Democrat Brecon and Radnorshire 26.9%

Plaid Cymru Ynys Mon 37.8%

Smallest

Conservative Aberconwy 3.4%

Labour Llanelli 1.4%

Liberal Democrat Brecon and Radnorshire 26.9%

Plaid Cymru Ceredigion 8.2%

Region Constituency Turnout

Highest turnout

Mid and West Wales Brecon & Radnorshire 56.5%

North Wales Arfon 50.9%

South Wales Central Cardiff North 56.8%

South Wales East Monmouth 48.9%

South Wales West Gower 49.8%

Lowest Turnout

Mid and West Wales Dwyfor Meirionnydd 46.8%

North Wales Alyn & Deeside 34.6%

South Wales Central Cynon Valley 38.2%

South Wales East Newport East 37.1%

South Wales West Swansea East 35.7%


Table 11: Highest and lowest shares of constituency vote

Highest Lowest

CON Monmouth 43.3% Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney 6.4%

Montgomeryshire 41.8% Blaenau Gwent 6.3%

Clwyd West 41.3% Cynon Valley 6.1%

Preseli Pembrokeshire 39.2% Rhondda 2.2%

LAB Ogmore 55.2% Ynys Mon 17.0%

Swansea East 52.1% Brecon & Radnorshire 8.9%

Cynon Valley 51.1% Ceredigion 6.5%

Aberavon 50.7% Montgomeryshire 5.9%

LD Brecon & Radnorshire 52.4% Blaenau Gwent 1.4%

Cardiff Central 35.3% Ynys Mon 1.3%

Ceredigion 32.6% Llanelli 1.3%

Montgomeryshire 27.7% Rhondda 0.7%

PC Arfon 54.8% Cardiff North 6.1%

Ynys Mon 54.8% Newport West 5.9%

Dwyfor Meirionnydd 54.2% Monmouth 5.8%

Rhondda 50.6% Brecon & Radnorshire 3.9%

UKIP Torfaen 22.6% Cardiff West 8.2%

Islwyn 22.2% Brecon & Radnorshire 7.1%

Caerphilly 22.0% Cardiff North 6.7%

Newport East 20.9% Cardiff Central 4.7%

GRN Cardiff Central 4.4% Aberavon 1.9%

Cardiff South & Penarth 4.2% Ynys Mon 1.5%

Ceredigion 4.1% Llanelli 1.5%

Preseli Pembrokeshire 4.1% Rhondda 1.1%


7.2 Regional ballot Table 12: Regional results - votes and turnout by constituency


Mid and West Wales

Brecon and Radnorshire 7,625 4,446 9,069 2,181 2,655 1,145 2,909 30,030 53,793 55.8%

Carmarthenshire East and Dinefwr 4,288 5,930 919 12,825 3,393 787 1,521 29,663 55,395 53.5%Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire

8,035 6,805 808 5,902 3,657 837 2,122 28,166 56,886 49.5%

Ceredigion 2,834 2,916 5,858 10,692 2,973 1,793 1,662 28,728 52,540 54.7%

Dwyfor Meirionnydd 3,332 2,759 730 8,949 2,299 772 1,274 20,115 43,279 46.5%

Llanelli 2,257 10,492 297 8,648 3,996 521 1,863 28,074 59,651 47.1%

Montgomeryshire 7,483 2,080 4,742 2,856 2,718 1,185 2,355 23,419 48,674 48.1%

Preseli Pembrokeshire 8,607 6,547 1,131 4,701 3,351 1,182 2,126 27,645 56,414 49.0%

North Wales

Aberconwy 5,808 4,961 847 5,994 2,343 547 1,567 22,067 44,953 49.1%

Alyn and Deeside 4,797 8,413 719 2,006 3,496 447 1,857 21,735 62,697 34.7%

Arfon 1,369 4,831 582 10,028 1,376 706 1,056 19,948 39,252 50.8%

Clwyd South 4,472 6,915 1,969 4,106 2,802 520 1,310 22,094 54,169 40.8%

Clwyd West 8,422 5,213 969 6,048 3,232 579 1,685 26,148 57,641 45.4%

Delyn 5,399 8,004 1,390 2,681 3,403 417 1,864 23,158 53,489 43.3%

Vale of Clwyd 7,024 7,986 562 3,157 2,991 397 1,905 24,022 56,322 42.7%

Wrexham 4,747 6,607 1,729 2,666 2,458 599 1,480 20,286 51,548 39.4%

Ynys Mon 3,430 4,598 578 11,015 3,417 577 1,417 25,032 50,345 49.7%

South Wales Central

Cardiff Central 2,642 8,595 7,337 2,831 1,526 1,536 1,518 25,985 57,177 45.4%

Cardiff North 10,964 12,754 1,852 4,714 3,196 1,156 2,693 37,329 65,927 56.6%

Cardiff South and Penarth 5,739 11,264 1,396 4,505 3,671 1,491 2,166 30,232 76,110 39.7%

Cardiff West 5,205 9,521 1,222 9,741 2,698 1,375 2,030 31,792 66,040 48.1%

Cynon Valley 1,227 8,295 385 4,601 3,120 426 1,177 19,231 50,292 38.2%

Pontypridd 3,488 8,973 1,335 5,609 3,437 650 1,839 25,331 58,277 43.5%

Rhondda 582 7,623 278 11,354 2,377 346 1,039 23,599 49,758 47.4%

Vale of Glamorgan 12,338 11,341 1,070 5,002 3,933 969 2,981 37,634 71,177 52.9%

South Wales East

Blaenau Gwent 1,158 8,260 328 6,716 3,373 344 1,120 21,299 50,575 42.1%

Caerphilly 2,728 9,416 526 7,013 5,555 651 1,222 27,111 62,449 43.4%

Islwyn 1,853 9,935 512 3,740 4,683 449 1,165 22,337 54,465 41.0%

Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney 1,340 9,666 692 3,399 4,230 404 968 20,699 45,227 45.8%

Monmouth 11,604 7,998 1,872 2,646 3,668 1,202 2,212 31,202 64,197 48.6%

Newport East 3,919 8,392 1,213 1,589 4,081 451 1,034 20,679 55,750 37.1%

Newport West 7,228 11,493 985 1,669 4,092 788 1,440 27,695 62,169 44.5%

Torfaen 3,488 9,264 656 2,914 4,842 542 1,363 23,069 60,246 38.3%

South Wales West

Aberavon 1,298 9,556 1,128 4,446 3,019 370 1,022 20,839 49,039 42.5%

Bridgend 6,043 9,724 1,519 3,375 3,804 712 1,618 26,795 60,195 44.5%

Gower 8,220 10,310 1,738 4,044 3,128 799 1,951 30,190 60,637 49.8%

Neath 2,067 9,570 1,040 6,736 3,810 682 1,402 25,307 55,370 45.7%

Ogmore 2,409 11,171 848 4,097 3,246 455 1,090 23,316 54,669 42.6%

Swansea East 1,866 8,724 2,248 3,056 3,236 471 953 20,554 57,594 35.7%

Swansea West 3,511 7,848 2,425 3,296 2,853 931 1,324 22,188 54,601 40.6%


Table 13: Regional results - change in party share of vote and turnout by constituency

2011 2016 Change CON LAB LD PC UKIP GRN Others

Mid and West WalesBrecon and Radnorshire 52.8% 55.8% +3.0% -7.1% -3.2% +0.9% -0.1% +4.0% -0.6% +6.0%Carmarthenshire East and Dinefwr 51.3% 53.5% +2.2% -3.3% -6.7% -0.8% +3.3% +7.6% -1.3% +1.1%Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire

48.2% 49.5% +1.3% -3.8% -3.4% -1.0% -3.8% +8.9% -0.1% +3.3%

Ceredigion 51.0% 54.7% +3.7% -2.9% -0.3% -6.4% +0.7% +6.7% -0.0% +2.3%Dwyfor Meirionnydd 46.5% 46.5% -0.0% -5.9% -1.0% -1.1% -1.1% +7.6% -0.6% +2.1%Llanelli 44.3% 47.1% +2.8% -3.6% -1.4% -1.6% -3.9% +10.3% -0.4% +0.6%Montgomeryshire 47.1% 48.1% +1.1% -5.1% -2.0% -3.8% -0.3% +4.6% +0.6% +6.0%Preseli Pembrokeshire 47.2% 49.0% +1.8% -4.7% -6.9% -1.3% +1.5% +7.9% +0.3% +3.1%

North WalesAberconwy 45.1% 49.1% +4.0% -4.0% -1.7% -4.3% +2.8% +5.9% +0.1% +1.2%Alyn and Deeside 36.9% 34.7% -2.2% -4.4% -4.1% -2.4% +0.3% +10.1% -0.1% +0.6%Arfon 43.0% 50.8% +7.8% -4.4% -0.2% -0.8% +2.8% +4.0% -0.9% -0.4%Clwyd South 36.8% 40.8% +4.0% -4.0% -6.2% +0.9% +1.5% +8.4% -0.1% -0.5%Clwyd West 43.4% 45.4% +1.9% -4.3% -3.2% -1.7% +0.4% +7.6% +0.3% +0.9%Delyn 42.8% 43.3% +0.5% -6.2% -3.0% -0.1% -1.6% +9.3% -0.1% +1.7%Vale of Clwyd 40.8% 42.7% +1.8% -0.6% -6.6% -1.4% +0.0% +7.2% +0.0% +1.4%Wrexham 34.9% 39.4% +4.4% -0.4% -4.6% -2.9% -0.0% +7.7% +0.9% -0.6%Ynys Mon 48.7% 49.7% +1.1% -10.7% -4.7% +0.0% +8.2% +7.7% +0.3% -0.7%

South Wales CentralCardiff Central 36.8% 45.4% +8.6% -5.9% +0.3% +2.4% +3.6% +2.5% -3.2% +0.4%Cardiff North 51.4% 56.6% +5.2% -6.9% -3.2% -1.0% +4.4% +4.6% -0.6% +2.8%Cardiff South and Penarth 36.9% 39.7% +2.8% -4.3% -4.1% -2.7% +4.2% +7.4% -1.0% +0.5%Cardiff West 43.2% 48.1% +4.9% -5.9% -7.6% -1.6% +14.1% +4.4% -4.2% +0.8%Cynon Valley 35.0% 38.2% +3.3% -1.2% -10.3% -0.8% +0.6% +15.8% -1.1% -3.1%Pontypridd 38.9% 43.5% +4.6% -0.4% -9.8% -5.2% +8.5% +8.6% -1.5% -0.1%Rhondda 38.1% 47.4% +9.4% -1.8% -22.3% -1.0% +23.6% +6.7% -1.0% -4.1%Vale of Glamorgan 46.3% 52.9% +6.5% -1.1% -5.3% -1.3% +0.9% +5.1% -1.2% +3.0%

South Wales EastBlaenau Gwent 37.6% 42.1% +4.5% -1.6% -24.0% -1.7% +22.2% +10.8% -0.6% -5.2%Caerphilly 41.2% 43.4% +2.2% -1.7% -9.3% -1.6% -0.4% +16.6% +0.2% -3.8%Islwyn 38.1% 41.0% +2.9% -2.0% -7.1% -0.8% -0.6% +15.7% -0.1% -5.0%Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney 35.1% 45.8% +10.7% -1.6% -9.2% -3.8% +4.2% +16.0% -0.4% -5.3%Monmouth 46.4% 48.6% +2.2% -5.1% -1.5% -1.8% +2.2% +6.6% -0.4% +0.1%Newport East 35.6% 37.1% +1.5% -2.6% -3.8% -6.4% +1.5% +13.8% +0.3% -2.9%Newport West 36.8% 44.5% +7.8% -3.0% -0.5% -2.1% -0.6% +8.9% -0.1% -2.6%Torfaen 36.5% 38.3% +1.8% -1.2% -7.7% -2.3% +0.9% +14.3% -0.4% -3.6%

South Wales WestAberavon 36.8% 42.5% +5.7% -4.7% -11.3% +0.8% +8.5% +10.6% -0.0% -3.9%Bridgend 40.4% 44.5% +4.1% -3.4% -6.2% -0.8% +3.0% +9.2% +0.3% -2.3%Gower 43.3% 49.8% +6.5% -0.7% -4.0% -1.8% +0.8% +6.1% -0.6% +0.2%Neath 41.6% 45.7% +4.1% -2.6% -10.3% +0.1% +2.7% +11.4% +0.8% -2.1%Ogmore 36.3% 42.6% +6.3% -1.9% -6.2% -0.2% +4.0% +9.6% +0.0% -5.5%Swansea East 31.6% 35.7% +4.1% -2.5% -9.6% +2.7% +3.5% +11.2% +0.2% -5.6%Swansea West 35.2% 40.6% +5.5% -4.8% -3.0% -2.6% +3.0% +8.4% -0.1% -0.9%0 0%

Turnout Change in share of vote 2011-2016


Table 14: Regional ballot results - votes and turnout by party and region

Table 15: Regional ballot results - party share of vote by party and region

Table 16: Regional ballot results - change in share of the vote by region


Mid and West Wales 44,461 41,975 23,554 56,754 25,042 8,222 15,832 215,840 426,632 50.6%North Wales 45,468 57,528 9,345 47,701 25,518 4,789 14,141 204,490 470,416 43.5%South Wales Central 42,185 78,366 14,875 48,357 23,958 7,949 15,443 231,133 494,758 46.7%South Wales East 33,318 74,424 6,784 29,686 34,524 4,831 10,524 194,091 455,078 42.7%South Wales West 25,414 66,903 10,946 29,050 23,096 4,420 9,360 169,189 392,105 43.1%All regions 190,846 319,196 65,504 211,548 132,138 30,211 65,300 1,014,743 2,238,989 45.3%


Mid and West Wales 20.6% 19.4% 10.9% 26.3% 11.6% 3.8% 7.3% 100.0%

North Wales 22.2% 28.1% 4.6% 23.3% 12.5% 2.3% 6.9% 100.0%

South Wales Central 18.3% 33.9% 6.4% 20.9% 10.4% 3.4% 6.7% 100.0%

South Wales East 17.2% 38.3% 3.5% 15.3% 17.8% 2.5% 5.4% 100.0%

South Wales West 15.0% 39.5% 6.5% 17.2% 13.7% 2.6% 5.5% 100.0%

All regions 18.8% 31.5% 6.5% 20.8% 13.0% 3.0% 6.4% 100.0%


Mid and West Wales -4.6% -3.1% -1.9% -0.5% +7.2% -0.3% +3.1% 0.0%

North Wales -4.6% -4.0% -1.3% +1.9% +7.5% +0.1% 0.0% -0.4%

South Wales Central -3.7% -7.1% -1.5% +7.2% +6.4% -1.7% +1.2% 0.8%

South Wales East -2.4% -7.3% -2.5% +3.2% +12.5% -0.2% +0.6% 3.9%

South Wales West -2.8% -6.9% -0.5% +3.4% +9.4% +0.1% -0.4% 2.2%

All regions -3.7% -5.4% -1.6% +3.0% +8.5% -0.5% -0.5% -0.3%


7.3 Assembly Members elected Table 17: Seats won by seat type, party and region

Mid & West North South Wales South Wales South Wales Total

Wales Wales Central East WestConstituency seats

Conservative 3 2 0 1 0 6

Labour 1 5 7 7 7 27

Liberal Democrat 1 0 0 0 0 1

Plaid Cymru 3 2 1 0 0 6

UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0

Green 0 0 0 0 0 0

Independent 0 0 0 0 0 0

All parties 8 9 8 8 7 40

Regional seats


Labour 2 0 0 0 0 2




Green 0 0 0 0 0 0


All parties 4 4 4 4 4 20

All seats


Labour 3 5 7 7 7 29




Green 0 0 0 0 0 0


All parties 12 13 12 12 11 60

Region


Table 18a: Assembly Members elected, May 2016

* Assembly Member immediately prior to 2016 election. Of the 60 AMs elected 37 had been members

Constituency Elected Member Party

Mid and West Wales

Brecon and Radnorshire * Kirsty Williams LD

Carmarthenshire East and Dinefwr Adam Price PC

Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire * Angela Burns CON

Ceredigion * Elin Jones PC

Dwyfor Meirionnydd * Dafydd Elis-Thomas PC

Llanelli Lee Waters LAB

Montgomeryshire * Russell George CON

Preseli Pembrokeshire * Paul Windsor Davies CON

North Wales

Aberconwy * Janet Finch-Saunders CON

Alyn and Deeside * Carl Sargeant LAB

Arfon Sian Gwenllian PC

Clwyd South * Ken Skates LAB

Clwyd West * Darren Millar CON

Delyn Hannah Blythyn LAB

Vale of Clwyd * Ann Jones LAB

Wrexham * Lesley Griffiths LAB

Ynys Mon * Rhun Ap Iorwerth PC

South Wales Central

Cardiff Central * Jenny Rathbone LAB

Cardiff North * Julie Morgan LAB

Cardiff South and Penarth * Vaughan Gething LAB

Cardiff West * Mark Drakeford LAB

Cynon Valley Vikki Howells LAB

Pontypridd * Mick Antoniw LAB

Rhondda * Leanne Wood PC

Vale of Glamorgan * Jane Hutt LAB

South Wales East

Blaenau Gwent * Alun Davies LAB

Caerphilly Hefin David LAB

Islwyn Rhianon Passmore LAB

Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney Dawn Bowden LAB

Monmouth * Nick Ramsay CON

Newport East * John Griffiths LAB

Newport West Jayne Bryant LAB

Torfaen * Lynne Neagle LAB

South Wales West

Aberavon * David Rees LAB

Bridgend * Carwyn Jones LAB

Gower * Rebecca Evans LAB

Neath Jeremy Miles LAB

Ogmore Huw Irranca-Davies LAB

Swansea East * Mike Hedges LAB

Swansea West * Julie James LAB


Table 18b: Assembly Members elected, May 2016

* Assembly Member immediately prior to 2016 election. Of the 60 AMs elected 37 had been members

Regional List Elected Member Party

Mid and West Wales Neil Hamilton UKIP

Mid and West Wales * Joyce Watson LAB

Mid and West Wales * Simon Thomas PC

Mid and West Wales Eluned Morgan LAB

North Wales * Mark Isherwood Con

North Wales Llyr Gryffudd PC

North Wales Nathan Gill Ukip

North Wales Michelle Brown Ukip

South Wales Central * David Melding Con

South Wales Central * Andrew Davies Con

South Wales Central Gareth Bennett UKIP

South Wales Central Neil McEvoy PC

South Wales East Mark Reckless UKIP

South Wales East David Rowlands UKIP

South Wales East * Mohammed Asghar Con

South Wales East Steffan Lewis PC

South Wales West * Suzy Davies Con

South Wales West * Bethan Jenkins PC

South Wales West Caroline Jones UKIP

South Wales West David Rhys Lloyd PC

BRIEFING PAPER Number CBP 7594 17 May 2016

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