BySandeep Tripathi

IFS

DIRECTOR (Research)Indian Council of Forestry Research and Education

Dehra Dun

“Addressing Impacts of Climate Change: Global Experience”

18– 09 – 2009

WII,Dehradun

Our climate is changing

• In a irreversible direction

• On an increasingly faster rates

• Mainly due to anthropogenic reasons

Source: IPCC, 2007, WGI Report

Source: IPCC, 2007, WG I Report

(280 in 1750 to 379 ppm)

(715 in 1750 to 1774 ppb)

(270 in 1750 to 319 ppb)

(a)-global emission 1970-2004, (b)-share of GHG gases, (c) sectoral shares (a)-global emission 1970-2004, (b)-share of GHG gases, (c) sectoral shares

Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time

100 0.0740.018 50 0.1280.026

Warmest 12 years:1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,200

6, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,200

0

Period Rate

Years /decade

Projections of Future Climate

Best estimate for low scenario (B1) is 1.8°C (likely range is 1.1°C to 2.9°C), and for high scenario (A1FI) is 4.0°C (likely range is 2.4°C to 6.4°C).

Projections of Future Climate

Projected Future Impacts of Climate Projected Future Impacts of Climate ChangeChange

• Global surface warming over the 21Global surface warming over the 21stst century - 2 century - 2o o C to 4.5C to 4.5o o CC

• Increase in precipitation in high latitudes, and likely decreases Increase in precipitation in high latitudes, and likely decreases in most subtropical land regions continuesin most subtropical land regions continues

• Contraction of snow cover area /Glaciers continue to recedeContraction of snow cover area /Glaciers continue to recede

• Sea level rise – 0.02 m by middle, and 0.15 m by 21st centurySea level rise – 0.02 m by middle, and 0.15 m by 21st century

• Ocean acidification with reduction in ocean pH of between 0.14 Ocean acidification with reduction in ocean pH of between 0.14 and 0.35 units over the 21st centuryand 0.35 units over the 21st century

• Decrease in freshwater availability- DroughtDecrease in freshwater availability- Drought

• River basins – increased flood hazard, from 1.4-1.6 billion in River basins – increased flood hazard, from 1.4-1.6 billion in 1995 to 4.3-6.9 billion in 20501995 to 4.3-6.9 billion in 2050

• Coastal areas, small islands and low lying areas are key Coastal areas, small islands and low lying areas are key hotspots of societal vulnerability (intense tropical cyclones)hotspots of societal vulnerability (intense tropical cyclones)

Source: IPCC (2007)

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOREST ECOSYSTEMS

• Increased risk of extinction and loss of biodiversity– Approximately 20-30% of species at risk if warming exceeds

1.5 – 2.5 °C (relative to 1980-1999)– Approximately 40-70% of species at risk if warming exceeds

above 3.5 °C

• On forests and forest functions

– Migration of species, flowering, pollination, bird arrival

• Likely changes structure and functions- Diversity,maintenance, productivity, carbon sequestration,

water cycling, etc.

• Enhanced natural disturbances such as fires, pests and extreme climatic events

Forests and Climate change

• Sinks: remove CO2 from the atmosphere– Forests and other terrestrial sinks absorb 2.6 GtC

annually (AR4)– ICFRE estimates Indian forests absorb 38 mtc annually

• Reservoirs: keep carbon as biomass– According to FAO estimates forests store about 638 GtC– ICFRE estimates Indian forests stock 6.6 Gtc

• Sources: releases gases like carbon dioxide and methane when forests are destroyed– Deforestation and other land-use activities emit 1.6 GtC

annually (AR4)– Forest sector, mostly deforestation, accounts for 17 %

of the total anthropogenic GHG emissions

IPCC 4th Assessment Report

Share of different sectors in total anthropogenic

GHG emissions in 2004 in terms of CO2 equivalent

• Energy Supply 25.9%

• Industry 19.4%

• Forestry 17.4%

• Agriculture 13.5%

• Residential and 7.9%Commercial building

• Waste and Wastewater 2.8%

• Carbon Stocks in 1995- 6,245 million tonnes

• Carbon Stocks in 2005- 6,662 million tonnes

• Annual Increment of 38 mt of C or 138 mt of CO2

• Valuation of carbon Stock-24000mt CO2 -Rs. 6,000,000 crore @$US5

• Incremental Value of Carbon Stocks-Rs.6,000 crore

Sequestration Potential of Indian Forests and Trees

Climate Change: Adaptation Strategies

• ADAPTION- RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE BY ADAPTING TO ITS IMPACTS

• Only Win-Win & No Regret Options be considered

• Improved Tree Varieties & Clones • Develop drought & pest resistance in commercial tree

species• Develop fire and insect management practices• Improved Land Management/rotation/harvesting• Biodiversity conservation by multi-species plantations• Rationalize PA Boundaries/ Corridors

Forestry Based Mitigation Options

MITIGATION- Stabilization of Co2 in atmosphere

• Reduced Deforestation/Stabilization- Slowing or stopping loss of existing forests: preserving current C reservoirs

• Afforestation & Reforestation- Carbon Sequestration by adding to the planets vegetative cover: enlarging living terrestrial C reservoirs.

• Forest Management- Improved productivity, Increasing the C stored in C reservoirs such as

agricultural soils and harvested wood products.• Bio-Energy- Substituting sustainable biomass energy

sources for fossil fuel consumption

The United Nations Framework convention on

Climate Change (UNFCCC)

• 1988: UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC)

– Established by UN to assess technical information

• June 1992: Rio “Earth Summit” UN Framework

Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

– 21 March 1994 - entry into force

The Kyoto Protocol• Adopted in Kyoto, COP 3, 1997 after two and half

years of negotiations with support of 141 nations without USA and Australia

• The Kyoto Protocol of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) enforced on 16th February 2005

• 38 industrialized countries have ratified the treaty and are legally bound to reduce their green house gas emission (GHG) by 5.2 % before 2012 with targets set for each nations based on their 1990 level

1990 2000 201020052002

Kyoto Protocol Starts

C emission Levels Under UNFCCC

2008-2012-

5.2%

MARKET BASED MECHANISMS

(i) Emission Trading( Article 17): Allow the developed countries to transfer emissions credits to each other

(ii) Joint Implementation (Article 6): Implemented between two developed (Annex 1) countries. Credits obtained by investing countries are offset by debits to the country hosting the Project

(iii) The Clean Development Mechanism (Article 12 )

• To promote sustainable development by encouraging

investments by Governments and Private firms in

environmental friendly projects in developing

countries that reduce or avoid emission.

• Implemented between Annex I and Non-Annex I

countries in the geographic territory of Non-Annex

countries

• Developed countries receive credit against their targets

for emissions avoided by these projects.

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)-Article 12

How CDM operates

• As a result of Kyoto Protocol carbon has become a tradable commodity

• Any entity (foreign, domestic, joint venture, public, corporate, non-profit) may set up a project to produce any good (e.g. steel) or any service (e.g. transportation), in a non-Annex I Party

• One Tonne of CO2 reduced through a CDM Project is known as a Certified Emission Reduction (CER) when issued by CDM EB and transferred to the buyer in Annex-I country which can be traded

COP 10 Buenos Aires (Dec, 2004): Adopted simplified Modalities and Procedures for

Small Scale A&R Projects

Small scale project activities under CDM are expected to result in net anthropogenic GHG

removals by sinks of <8kt of CO2 (Now 16 kt

post Bali)annually and are developed or

implemented by low-income communities and individuals

Small Scale A&R Projects

Small Scale A&R ProjectsTo reduce transaction costs, modalities and procedures are simplified for small-scale A&R projects under CDM:

• Bundling allowed for PDD, validation, registration, monitoring, verification & certification

• Requirements of PDD reduced• Simplified baseline methodologies• Monitoring plans & requirements simpler• Same DOE may undertake validation, verification & certification

CDM project pipeline: > 3000

Registered: 1764

Requesting registration: 50

A&R (Forestry):

35 methodologies submitted

10 methodologies approved

3 Small Scale A&R methodology approved

5 A&R Project registered

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

Steps for CDM Project Approval

• Develop Project Idea Note• Seek Project Development Funding• Engage Designated Operational Entity• Creation of Project Design Document• Host Country Letter of Approval• Designated Operational Entity to validate PDD• Project Registration• verification and issuance of CERs

Host Country Approval

NCDMA

Single window clearance

Submit the Project Concept Note (PCN) and Project Design Document (PDD).

NCDMA examines the Project

Once the Authority is satisfied,

Project conforms to the norms governing the CDM,

Host Country Approval (HCA) issued

Submission of PCN and PDD with 2 CDs to NCDMA

Circulation among NCDMA members

Presentation by Project Developed during NCDMA

meeting

Clarification / additional information from Project Development if

required by NCDMA members

Host country approval letter

NCDMA meets once in a month

CDM Project cycleProject Design and Formulation (PCN & PDD)

National Approval

Validation/ Registration

Project Financing

Monitoring

Verification and Certification

DOE

Investor

DOE

CDM-EB/Registry

PDD

Project participant

Monitoring Report

Verification/Certification/ request for CER

Activity Reports Institutions

DNA

Issuance of CERs

Technological/Methodological Issues

• Additionality– Physical– Financial

• Baseline scenario

• Leakage

• Land Eligibility

• Bundling and PoA

ADDITIONALITYADDITIONALITY

A project activity is “additional” or “not additional”. Accordingly it gets 100% or 0% of the carbon credits.

Under the Kyoto Protocol “additionality” is a “yes” or “no” judgment.

Carbon

Time

= Estimation of what may occur under the CDM

ex ante

= Estimation of what would otherwise occur

Only the “additional carbon” has a potential market value.

Additional carbon

Project crediting period

Project carbon

Baseline carbon ex ante

BASELINE STUDY

Baseline study – Baseline study – ex ante (Projection)ex ante (Projection)

Nearby the Project AreaProject Area

Leakage = Increased GHG emissions outside the project boundary attributable to the project activity (e.g. induced land use/cover change, increased consumption of

fossil fuels) and measurable.

Leakage Leakage

2005 2005

2005+X

CO22005+X

C

C

The method to be used to assess leakage is part of the “baseline” methodology.

Outside the project boundary,

“attributable” and “measurable”

Within the project boundary

=“Actual net

GHG removal by sinks”

Carbon benefits of A/R CDM project activitiesCarbon benefits of A/R CDM project activities

Project scenario

changes in the carbon stocks in

the carbon pools)

=“Baseline net GHG removal

by sinks”

Baseline scenario (changes

in the carbon

stocks in the carbon

pools)

(decrease in the carbon

stocks in the carbon pools)

increase in emissions

=

“Net an

throp

ogenic G

HG

rem

oval by sin

ks”=

Leakage

“Forest” is a • minimum area of land of 0.05 – 1.0 ha• with tree crown cover of 10 – 30 per cent• trees with the potential to reach a

minimum height of 2 – 5 meters

For land use, land-use change and Forestry activities following definitions shall apply:

Forest Definition

India's original Forest definition:Tree crown Cover 10-30% (30%)Tree Height: 2-5 m (5m)Minimum area: 0.05-1 ha (0.05ha)

Serious thought was given to this issue and changes were recommended:UNFCCC changed the country forest definition as follows:

Tree crown Cover (15%)Tree Height: (2m)Minimum area: (0.05ha)

(a) “Afforestation” is direct human-

induced conversion of land that has not

been forested for a period of at least 50

years to forested land through planting,

seeding and/or the human-induced

promotion of natural seed sources

(b) “Reforestation” is direct human-

induced conversion of non-forested

land to forested land, that did not

contain forest on 31 December

1989 ,through planting, seeding

and/or the human-induced promotion

of natural seed sources

  Country For afforestation and reforestation project activities -Host Party's selected single minimum:

Tree crown cover value between 10 and 30 %

Land area value between 0.05 and 1 hectare

Tree height value between 2 and 5 metres

1 Albania 30 0.1 3

2 Cambodia 30 1 5

3 China 20 0.067 2

4 Colombia 30 1 5

5 Costa Rica 30 1 5

6 Dem Rep of the Congo 30 1 5

7 Honduras 30 1 5

8 India 30 ( 15%) 0.05 5 ( 2 )

9 Nicaragua 20 1 4

10 Republic of Moldova 30 0.25 5

11 Uganda 30 1.0 5

12 Viet Nam 30 0.5 3

13 Yemen 30 0.5 3

Country Forest definition for CDM AR projects

Bundling and PoA

• Bundling-Bringing together of several small-scale CDM project activities, without the loss of distinctive characteristics of each project activity. Verification by one DOE

• Programme of activities (PoA)-Registration of local/regional/national policies or standards as CDM project activities by voluntary implementation of such policies by stakeholders / organizations/individuals

CDM A&R Projects from India

Sl.No.

Name of the Project Project Developer

CO2 Removal/ yr (kt)

Size (ha)

Remarks

1. Bagepalli CDM Afforestation Programme

Women for Sustainable

Development (WSD), Bangalore

8.0 1383 Baseline Methodology not approved by CDM EB

2. The International small group and Tree Planting Programme

Active TIST Small Group

Tamil Nadu

51.6 2 million trees

Not submitted to CDM EB

3. Improving Rural Livelihood through Carbon Sequestration by Adapting Environment Friendly technology Based Afforestation Practices

VEDA MACSHyderabad

20.0 3500 Supported by WB Carbon Finance Yet submitted to CDM EB

4. Afforestation of the Cropland through Agroforestry Practices in 3658 Ha. Area in Khammam District of Andhra Pradesh , India under ITCs Farm Forestry Project

ITC Bhadrachalam

47.6 3658 Approved by CDM EB

5. Small-scale Cooperative Afforestation CDM Pilot Project Activity on Private lands Affected by Shifting Sand Dunes in Sirsa, Haryana and The Haryana CDM Variksh Kisan Samiti.

Haryana Forest Department

2.9 369.5 Approved by CDM EB

Investment in CDM ProjectsInvestment in Rs. Crores Vs Years

358 1,794

15,933

36,451

65,402

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Year

Inve

stm

ent

in R

s.C

rore

s

Potential opportunities for India..

• As on March 2009 398 out of 1445 projects registered by EB are from India

• NCDMA has accorded host country approval to 1226 projects having an investment of Rs. 151,397 crores with a potential of 573 million CER having value of US $ 5.73 billion by 2012.

• Assuming 10% share of Sink Projects India can fetch US $500 million by 2012

International Carbon Market TradingInternational Carbon Market Trading

Amount of Carbon Traded (Mt CO2)

Reducing Deforestation in Developing Countries

• First Deliberated in COP – 11 at Montreal 2005

• Followed up by Workshops at Rome, Italy in August 2006 and Cairns, Australia in March 2007

• In COP 12 at Nairobi, SBSTA 26 at Bonn India pleaded for incentives towards conservation measures also

• In COP -13 at Bali discussion on exiting & potential Policy Approaches, incentives & methodological issues

• In COP-14 at Poznan role on conservation, SMF & increase in forest cover recognized under- REDD +

• Draft text for COP-15 Copenhagen 2009

S. No.

Countries Number of Countries

Area 1,000 ha Annual Change

1990 2005 1,000 ha/ year

%

1 Non Annex Countries with increasing forest cover and other wooded lands

27 443,092 479,624 2,436 +0.55

2 Non Annex Countries with decreasing forest cover and other wooded lands

74 2484,885 2283,436 13,430 - 0.54

3 Countries with negligible or No change

90 - - - -

Change in extent of Forest Cover and wooded lands 1990-2005

(Excluding Annex I Countries, Data Source: FAO, 2005)

0100200300400500600

1990 2000 2005

Are

a (M

illi

on

ha)

Nations: Decreasing Forest CoverTop 15 Non Annex 1 Countries

154

47 115

69

41995 86

27

201

56

180166

97 55 48

Numbers above the bars represent the years needed to reach zero forest cover with present rate of deforestation (from 2005)

Source: FRA 2005 (FAO 2005)

0

50

100

150

200

1990

1995

2005

Are

a (M

illi

on

ha)

Nations: Increasing Forest CoverTop 10 Non Annex 1 Countries

Source: FRA 2005 (FAO, 2005)

• Compensated Conservation suggested by India (2007) and supported by others

REDD+

The Bali Action Plan calls for:

“Policy approaches and positive incentives on issues relating to reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries; and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries;”[FCCC/CP/2007/6/Add.1, 14 March 2008; Decision 1/CP.13 [BAP], paragraph 1(b)(iii)]

Incentives Claim: India

Proposed policy approach of Compensated Conservation seeks

incentive for

1. incremental stocks of 0.96 GtC between 2006-2030 (projected increase from 8.79 GtC in 2006 to 9.75 GtC in 2030)

2. baseline stocks of 8.79 GtC as on 2006

NATIONALACTION PLAN ON CLIMATE CHANGE ( NAPCC)& OTHER

INITIATIVES• 8 MISSIONS IDENTIFIED Green India-Treating 5 million ha degraded forest land - Afforestation of 18 m ha wasteland by 12 FYP (2016-17)Annual target- 3.3 m ha( additional 2.2 mha)Financial target- Rs. 77,000/- crores (additional (@ Rs 50,000/- ha)Fund for Regeneration & Sustainable Development-Initial corpus of US$2.5 b and annual Budget of US$1bCAMPA Fund –Rs. 11,000/- croresAvailing CDM benefit