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Center for Immigration Studies

1629 K Street, NW, Suite 600, Washington, DC 20006 • Phone 202.466.8185 • Fax 202.466.8076 • www.cis.org

C I S

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December 2019

Under current policy all persons — not just citizens — are included in the population count when appor-tioning seats to states in the U.S. House of Representatives and for votes in the Electoral College, which is based on House seats. Although we focus on the next census in 2020, the impact of immigration has

been building for decades as the number of people settling in the country has increased dramatically. This report examines the cumulative impact of immigration, both legal and illegal, on the apportionment of House seats. Ap-portionment is a zero-sum system; by adding more population to some states rather than others, immigration will continue to significantly redistribute political power in Washington.

Among the findings:

• Thepresenceofall immigrants(naturalizedcitizens, legalresidents,andillegalaliens)andtheirU.S.-born minor children will redistribute 26 seats in the House in 2020.

• Toputthisnumberinperspective,changingthepartyof21membersofthecurrentCongresswouldflipthe majority in the U.S. House.

• Ohiowillhavethreefewerseatsin2020thanitotherwisewouldhavehadbutforthepresenceofallim-migrants and their minor children in other states. Michigan and Pennsylvania will have two fewer; and Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mis-souri,NorthCarolina,Oklahoma,RhodeIsland,SouthCarolina,Tennessee,Utah,WestVirginia,andWisconsinwilleachhaveonefewerseat.Californiawillhave11moreseatsin2020thanitotherwisewouldhave;NewYorkandTexaswillhavefourmoreseatseach;Floridawillhavethreemoreseats;NewJersey will have two more seats; and Illinois and Massachusetts will each have one additional seat.

• Ofthe26seatsthatwillbelost,24arefromstatesthatvotedforDonaldTrumpin2016.OfstatesthatwillgainHouseseatsbecauseofimmigration,19seatswillgotothesolidlyDemocraticstatesofCalifornia,NewYork,NewJersey,Massachusetts,andIllinois.TexasistheonlysolidlyRepublicanstatethatgains,whileFloridaisaswingstate.

• Doingthesamecalculation,butcountingonlyimmigrantsthemselves(naturalizedcitizens,legalperma-nentresidents,guestworkers,foreignstudentsandillegalaliens),butnottheirU.S.-bornminorchildren,willredistribute18seatsintheHousein2020.Ohiowillhavetwofewerseatsthanitotherwisewouldhave had but for the presence of immigrants in other states. Alabama, Georgia, Idaho, Iowa, Indiana, Kentucky,Louisiana,Michigan,Minnesota,Missouri,NorthCarolina,Oklahoma,Pennsylvania,Tennes-see,Utah,andWestVirginiawilleachhaveonefewerseat.Californiawillhavesevenmoreseatsin2020thanitotherwisewould.NewYorkandFloridawillhavethreemoreeach;TexasandNewJerseywillhavetwo more seats; and Illinois will have one more seat.

The Impact of Legal and Illegal Immigration on the Apportionment of Seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in 2020 By Steven A Camarota and Karen Zeigler

1629KStreet,NW,Suite600•Washington,DC20006•(202)466-8185•center@cis.org•wwwcis.org

Steven A Camarota is the director of research and Karen Zeigler is a demographer at the Center.

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Center for Immigration Studies

• Lookingatnon-citizensandtheirU.S.-bornminorchildrenredistributes10seats,withOhio,Michigan,Alabama,Idaho,Minnesota,Missouri,WestVirginia,Tennessee,Pennsylvania,andRhodeIslandeachhavingonefewerseat.Californiawillhavefourmoreseatsthanitotherwisewouldhave;Texaswillhavethreemoreseats;andNewYork,Florida,andNewJerseywillhaveoneadditionalseateach.

• Lookingatonlynon-citizens(legalresidentsandillegalimmigrants)redistributeseightseats,withOhio,Michigan,Missouri,Minnesota,Alabama,Idaho,WestVirginia,andRhodeIslandeachhavingonefewerseatin2020duetothepresenceofnon-citizensinotherstates.Californiawillhavethreeadditionalseats;Texaswillhavetwomoreseats;andFlorida,NewJersey,andNewYorkwilleachhaveonemoreseat.

• IllegalimmigrantsandtheirU.S.-bornminorchildrenwillredistributefiveseatsin2020,withOhio,Michigan,Ala-bama,Minnesota,andWestVirginiaeachlosingoneseatin2020thattheyotherwisewouldhavehad.CaliforniaandTexaswilleachhavetwoadditionalseats,andNewYorkwillhaveoneadditionalseat.

• Illegalimmigrantsaloneinthe2020willredistributethreeseats,withOhio,Alabama,andMinnesotaeachhavingonefewerseatthantheyotherwisewouldhavehad,whileCalifornia,NewYork,andTexaswillhaveoneadditionalseat.

Introduction Article1,Section2oftheU.S.Constitutionrequiresthatacensusbetakenevery10yearsforthepurposeofapportioningseatsintheHouseofRepresentatives.Eachstateisassignedtheoneseatitisrequiredtoreceive,andtheremaining385seatsareallocatedbasedoneachstate’sshareofthetotalU.S.population,excludingtheDistrictofColumbia.(CongresscappedthenumberofHousemembersat435in1911.)Immigrants,referredtoasthe“foreign-born”bytheCensusBureau,includenaturalized citizens, as well as non-citizens such as green card holders, foreign students, and guestworkers. It also includes illegal immigrants counted in the decennial census. Immigrants also have U.S.-born children. The presence of all of these individuals has a significant impact on the distributions of seats in the House of Representatives and votes in the Electoral College. This report examines that redistribution.

We focus on 2020 and report how the number of seats in each state changes with and without including immigrants and/or their U.S.-born minor children. While there is an absolute consensus that all U.S. citizens should be counted and included in the apportionment population, opinions vary as to whether non-citizens in general or illegal immigrants in particular should becountedwhenapportioningseats.Thisreportdoesnotexplorethequestionofwhichpopulationsshouldorshouldnotbe included when seats are apportioned, nor do we take a position on whether the children of illegal immigrants should be automatically granted citizenship. This analysis simply informs the immigration debate by reporting the impact of immigra-tion on the distribution of House seats.

Ourfindingsindicatethat,overtime,immigrationprofoundlyredistributespoliticalpoweratthefederallevelbychangingtheapportionmentofHouseseatsandvotesintheElectoralCollege.Immigrationlawswerechangedsignificantlyin1965,spurringanew“GreatWave”ofimmigrationasthenumberofimmigrantsgrewroughlyfour-and-a-halffoldbetween1965and2019.1OfallimmigrantslivingintheUnitedStatestoday,97percentarrivedafter1965.Ineffect,thisanalysismeasurestheimpactofpost-1965immigrationonthedistributionofpoliticalpowerinWashington.2

The methods section of this report explains in detail how we estimate the impact of immigration on apportionment. In sum, wefirstprojectthepopulationofthe50statesfor2020.WethencalculatetheapportionmentofHouseseatsbasedonthesepopulations for 2020. We then use this as a baseline to compare what the apportionment of house seats would be without immigrants,non-citizens,orotherpopulationsofinterest.Thedifferencerepresentstheimpactofimmigration.

FindingsImpact of All Immigrants.ThesecondcolumninTable1showsthelikelydistributionofseatsintheHouseafterthe2020census, based on current trends. This is the baseline projection against which all other scenarios are compared. The other

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Center for Immigration Studies

State

AlabamaAlaskaArizonaArkansasCaliforniaColoradoConnecticutDelawareFloridaGeorgiaHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIndianaIowaKansasKentuckyLouisianaMaineMarylandMassachusettsMichiganMinnesotaMississippiMissouriMontanaNebraskaNevadaNew HampshireNew JerseyNew MexicoNew YorkNorth CarolinaNorthDakotaOhioOklahomaOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouthDakotaTennesseeTexasUtahVermontVirginiaWashingtonWestVirginiaWisconsinWyoming

Table 1. Apportionment of House Seats after 2020 Census Assuming Different Populations Were Not Present

Projected Seats, 2020

61104528512914

221794466289137482342123

26141155617171939411110

281

Without Immigrants

(Legal and Illegal)

7110445851

2615

23161054772891484923421032315117

66181711037511110381

Without Non-Citizens and

Their U.S.-Born Minor Children

71104488512814

23179446628914849234211325141165618

2711036411110381

Without Non-

Citizens

71104498512814

23179446628914849234211325141165617

271937411110381

Without Illegal Aliens and and

Their U.S.-Born Minor Children

71104508512914

22179446628914848234212325141165617171937411110381

Without Illegal Aliens

71104518512914

22179446628913848234212325141165617171938411110

281

BasedonpopulationsshowninTableA1.

Without Im-migrants and

Their U.S.-Born Minor Children

7110541851

2615

2316105477288158592342103

2215118

6619

2811035511110391

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State

OhioMichiganPennsylvaniaAlabamaIdahoMinnesotaMissouriTennesseeWestVirginiaRhode IslandGeorgiaIndianaIowaKentuckyLouisianaNorth CarolinaOklahomaUtahArkansasMississippiSouth CarolinaWisconsinMassachusettsIllinoisNew JerseyFloridaNew YorkTexasCaliforniaTotal Seats Affected

Table 2. Impact of Immigration on 2020 Apportionment under Different Population Scenarios

Impact of Immigrants

Only

-2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-10-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-10000012332718

Impact of Non-Citizens and

Their U.S.-Born Minor Children

-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1000000000000001113410

Impact ofNon-

CitizensOnly

-1-10-1-1-1-10-1-100000000000000111238

Impact of Illegal Aliens and Their

U.S.-Born Mi-nor Children

-1-10-10-100-1000000000000000001225

Illegal AliensOnly

-100-10-1000000000000000000001113

BasedonpopulationsshowninTableA1.

Impact of Im-migrants and

Their U.S.-Born Minor Children

-3-2-2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-11123441126

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columnsinTable1showthedistributionofseatsunderdifferentpopulationscenarios.3Table2usesTable1andcompareschangesinthedistributionofseatscausedbywhatislikelytohappenin2020undereachscenario.The21statesthatareun-affectedinanyofthescenariosarenotshowninTable2.ThebottomofTable2showsthetotalnumberofseatsthatchangehands under each scenario.

In2020,therewillbemorethan61millionimmigrantsandtheirU.S.-bornminorchildrenintheUnitedStates,representingnearlyoneinfiveU.S.residents.In2020,theaverageHouseseatwillrepresentroughly760,000people.Soitisnotsurprisingthatimmigrationredistributesseats.Ofcourseitisnotjustthenumberofimmigrantsorthenumberofchildrenthatmatter.In2020,justfourstates(California,Texas,Florida,andNewYork)willhave53percentofthenation’simmigrantsandtheirU.S.-bornchildrenunderage18.ItisboththesizeofthispopulationanditsunevendistributionthatcausesthesignificantredistributionshownatthebottomofTable2.

Table2showsthatOhioisthebiggestloserfromimmigration,withthreefewerseatsduetothepresenceofimmigrantsandtheir U.S.-born children residing in other states. Michigan and Pennsylvania will have two fewer seats, while Alabama, Ar-kansas,Georgia,Idaho,Indiana,Iowa,Kentucky,Louisiana,Minnesota,Mississippi,Missouri,NorthCarolina,Oklahoma,RhodeIsland,SouthCarolina,Tennessee,Utah,WestVirginia,andWisconsinwilleachloseoneseat.Californiaisthebig-gestwinner,asitwillgain11morecongressionalseatsduetoimmigrantsandtheiryoungchildren;NewYorkandTexaswillgetfourmoreseatseach,whileFloridawillgetthreeseats,NewJerseytwoseats,andMassachusettsandIllinoisoneseateach.Table2alsoshowsthatimmigrants(legalandillegal)alone,notincludingtheirU.S.-bornchildren,redistribute18seats.Ohiowouldhavetwofewerseatsduetoimmigrants,whileAlabama,Idaho,Michigan,Minnesota,Missouri,Pennsylvania,Tennessee,WestVirginia,Georgia,Indiana,Iowa,Kentucky,Louisiana,NorthCarolina,Oklahoma,andUtahwouldloseoneseatunderthisscenario.Californiawouldstillbethebigwinner,followedbyNewYork,Florida,Texas,NewJersey,andIllinois. Immigrants alone, not counting their U.S.-born minor children, have a very large impact on the apportionment of House seats.

The Impact of Non-Citizens and Illegal Immigrants. Therewillbenearly30millionnon-citizensandtheirU.S.-bornmi-norchildreninthecountryin2020.Non-citizensincludegreencardholders(permanentresidents),long-termtemporaryvisaholders(mainlyforeignstudentsandguestworkers),andillegal immigrants.TogetherwiththeirU.S.-bornchildren,thesenon-citizenswillredistribute10seatsin2020.Californiawillhavefourmoreseatsthanitotherwisewouldbutfornon-citizensandtheiryoungchildren;Texaswillhavethreeadditionalseats;andNewJersey,Florida,andNewYorkwilleachhaveoneadditionalseat.Alabama,Idaho,Michigan,Minnesota,Missouri,Ohio,Pennsylvania,Tennessee,WestVir-ginia, and Rhode Island will each have one fewer seat as a result of non-citizens and their minor children. Non-citizens, not includingtheirU.S-bornminorchildren,willredistributeeightseats.Thestatesthatgainseatsarethesame,withTexasandCalifornia gaining one fewer than when the children are included. The losing states are also the same with the exception that neitherPennsylvanianorTennesseewillloseaseat.

Turningtoillegalimmigrantsandtheirminorchildren,Table2showsthatincludingtheminthecensusredistributesfiveseats.CaliforniaandTexaswilleachgaintwoseatsasaresultofincludingillegalimmigrantsandtheiryoungchildren,whileNewYorkwillgainaseat.Alabama,Michigan,Ohio,Minnesota,andWestVirginiaeachloseaseatbecauseofillegalim-migrants and their U.S.-born children in other states. If we look at only illegal immigrants, we find that including them in thecountredistributesthreeseatsintheHouse.California,Texas,andNewYorkwilleachgainaseat;Alabama,Ohio,andMinnesota will each lose one.

ImplicationsHigh Immigration Causes Political Redistribution. If immigrants were evenly spread throughout the country, they would have no impact on the distribution of House seats. Historically, immigrants have always been concentrated in some areas, andthatisstilltruetoday.Ofcourse,immigrantsdotendtobecomemoredispersedovertime,butitisaverygradualpro-cess.In1990,thetopsixstatesofimmigrantsettlementaccountedfor73percentofthetotalforeign-bornpopulation,whilein2000thesesamesixstatesaccountedfor69percentofthetotalforeign-bornpopulation.In2020,thetopsixstateswillac-countfor63percentofallimmigrants,butonly40percentofthenation’stotalpopulation.Althoughimmigrantswillalmostcertainly continue to move into new parts of the country, for decades to come there will continue to be states with very large

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Center for Immigration Studies

immigrantpopulations,whileotherstateshaveonlyamodestnumber.In2020,therewillstillbe11stateswithfewerthan100,000immigrants,whilefivestateswillhavemorethantwomillion.

Theredistributiveeffectsofimmigrationarenotjustaresultofitsconcentration,butalsopartlydependonimmigrants’shareof the total population. A very large immigrant population, even if it becomes more dispersed, can still have a significant impactonthedistributionofHouseseatsandElectoralCollegevotes.Aslongasthenumberofimmigrants(legalandillegal)enteringthecountryremainsveryhigh,immigrationwillcontinuetoredistributepoliticalpowerinWashington.(Whilenotexaminedinthisreport,thesamedynamicapplieswithinstates,indrawingdistrictsforthestatelegislatures.)

Representing Non-Citizens in Congress. Although the political stakes for low-immigration states from continued high levelsofimmigrationareclearlyverysignificant,therelatedquestionofcreatingdistrictsbecauseofthepresenceofnon-citizensisequallyimportanttoconsider.WhilethereisaconsensusthatnaturalizedcitizensshouldberepresentedinCon-gress just like any other American, awarding congressional seats to states on the basis of their non-citizen populations raises importantquestionsaboutpoliticalrepresentation.Thisisespeciallytruewhenoneconsidersthatthesedistrictsarecreatedby taking representation away from states comprised of American citizens.

ConsiderthecaseofOhio,thebiggestloserfromimmigration-inducedreapportionment.In2020,therewillbe292,000non-citizensinOhio,accountingforjust2percentofthestate’spopulation;Californiawillbehometonearly4.8millionnon-citizens,accountingfor12percentofthestate’spopulation.Non-citizenscannotvoteinfederalelections,serveonjuries,or work for the federal government in most cases. Many non-citizens, including foreign students, guestworkers, and illegal immigrantsalsomaynotmakecampaigncontributions.Thus,itmayseemoddthattheyare“represented”inCongress.Thisis especially true because the majority of non-citizens in the country are either illegal immigrants or temporary visitors such as foreign students or guestworkers.4 While one can at least argue that legal permanent residents who have not naturalized are entitled to representation in Congress because they are future Americans, illegal aliens and temporary visitors can make no such claim.

Non-Citizens vs. “One Man, One Vote”. There are a significant number of congressional districts in high immigration states where a larger share of voting-age people are non-citizens and, as a result, it takes relatively few votes to elect a member of Congress.TakingawayrepresentationfromstatescomposedalmostentirelyofU.S.citizenssothatdistrictscanbecreatedwherealargeshareofthepopulationismadeupofnon-citizenscanbeseenasinconflictwiththeprincipleof“oneman, onevote”.Inthe2018electioninthefivecongressionaldistrictswherethelargestshareofthevoting-agepopulationwerenotcitizens,only132,000voteswerecastonaverage.Inthefivedistrictswiththesmallestnon-citizenshares,232,000voteswerecast on average. If nothing else, it means it takes far fewer votes to win a House seat in a district where a large share of adults is made up of non-citizens. Allowing in a large number of legal immigrants and tolerating illegal immigration has created a situation in which the votes of American citizens living in low-immigration districts count much less than those of citizens is living in high-immigration districts.

While it’s clear that American citizens in low-immigration states lose from mass immigration, the winners are not necessarily the non-citizens who cause the reapportionment, since they cannot vote or otherwise fully take part in the political process. Instead, it is citizens who live in the same districts with non-citizens whose political power is enhanced. Put simply, in a district in which a large share of the population cannot vote, those who do vote count more than citizens in districts where almosteveryoneisanAmericancitizen.Putadifferentway, largenon-citizenpopulationstakevotingpowerfromsomeAmericans and give it to other American citizens in high-immigration districts.

ConclusionGiven the large number of immigrants allowed into the country and their concentration in relatively few states, it is inevitable that immigration will exact a politicalcostfromthosestatesthatreceiverelativelyfewimmigrants.Becausefamilyrelation-ships and existing cultural ties determine where immigrants live, movement into new areas will take many decades. Thus, immigrantswillcontinuetobeconcentratedinonlyafewstates,andthisinturnwillcontinuetoshiftpoliticalpowerintheHouse of Representatives and the Electoral College.

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Center for Immigration Studies

It is important, then, when making decisions regarding immigration policy, to take into account not only the economic, fiscal, cultural, and demographic impacts of immigration, but also the political impact, part of which is the realignment of power in Congress away from states receiving relatively few immigrants. In addition to this realignment, careful consider-ationshouldalsobegiventothelossofrepresentationsufferedbycitizensinlow-immigrationstates.Tryingtodealwiththisproblembyexcludingnon-citizens,legalorillegal,wouldbechallenging.WhethertheConstitutionrequiresnon-citizenstobeincludedintheapportionmentpopulationisanopenquestion.

Encouraginglegalimmigrantswhoarenotcitizenstonaturalizewouldhelptoalleviateatleastsomeoftheproblem.Ofcourse, increased naturalizations would have no impact on the problem created by the presence of illegal aliens or the large number of long-term temporary visitors in the country. In addition, as long as one million or more new legal permanent immigrants are allowed in annually, there will always be a significant number of legal immigrants who have not lived here long enough to naturalize or chose not to do so even when eligible. Absent a change in policy, the non-citizen population will remain large even if new legal permanent immigrants naturalize at higher rates in the future.

Sincetheamountofredistributionisadirectconsequenceofthelevelofimmigration,amoremoderatelevelofimmigrationwouldproducelessimmigration-basedreapportionment.Giventheapparentremotenessoftheothereffectsofimmigra-tion on low-immigrant states, citizens of such states and their elected representatives need to be particularly sensitive to the political costs of immigration.

Methods WhiletheConstitutionrequiresthereapportionmentofseatsintheHouseofRepresentativesaftereachdecennialcensus,itisnotclearontheexactmethodofapportionment.TheMethodofEqualProportionshasbeenusedsincethe1940Census.5Thisanalysisassumesitwillagainbethemethodusedin2020.TheCensusBureauattemptstocaptureallU.S.residentsinthe census.

Toestimatetheimpactofimmigrationonthe2020censusrequiressixsteps.First,projecttheresidentpopulationofthe50statesfor2020,excludingtheDistrictofColumbia.Second,projectthesizeandstatedistributionoftheFederallyAffiliatedOverseasPopulation(FAOP)in2020,whichisincludedintheapportionmentpopulation.Third,addtheFAOPtothepro-jected resident population in each state and calculate the apportionment of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives based ontheprojections.Fourth,estimatethelikelynumberofillegalimmigrants,non-citizens,allimmigrants(foreign-born),orotherpopulationsofinterestthatwillbeincludedintheapportionmentpopulationin2020bystate.Fifth,removethepopu-lation of interest from the 2020 apportionment population and recalculate the distribution of House seats. Sixth, compare the distribution of House seats from step three to the distribution of seats with the population of interest removed to determine the impact. The sections that follow explain in detail how this is done.

Projected Resident Population in 2020. WhiletheU.S.CensusBureaunolongerprojectsstatepopulations,itdoesestimateeach state’s population every year. The state population projections for 2020 used in this report simply take each state’s popu-lationasestimatedbytheCensusBureauinrecentyearsandprojectthestate’spopulationto2020usingalinearmodel.6 This isimplementedbytakingtheBureau’sprojectionsforeachstatefrom2016to2018(2018isthemostrecentyearavailable)and projecting the population to 2020.7TheprojectionhastobecontrolledbacktoApril1,sincethisisthedateofthecensus,whiletheBureau’spopulationestimatesareforeachstateasofJuly1.8 The first column inTableA1reports the projection of theresidentpopulationforApril1,2020,ineachstate.TheDistrictofColumbiaisexcludedfromtheanalysisasitisnotpartof the population used for apportioning House seats.

The Federally Affiliated Overseas Population. As already indicated, the apportionment population includes the resident populationofeachstateandtheFederallyAffiliatedOverseasPopulation(FAOP)ofAmericans:militarypersonnelandtheirdependents,plusnon-militaryfederalemployeesandtheirdependents.TheCensusBureaureportsthenumberofmilitarypersonneloverseasinitsFactFinderdatatool,butnottherestoftheFAOP.ThesizeoftheFAOPisestimatedfor2020bytakingthemostrecentestimateofmilitarypersonneloverseas(236,475)fromtheCensusBureau’swebsiteasreportedinFactFinder.9 The number of military dependents is estimated using the same ratio of military personnel to dependents as was thecaseinthe2010census.10Thisproducesanestimateof340,956militarydependentsoverseas,makingforatotalmilitaryanddependentpopulationof236,475+340,956=577,431.

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As for federal employees overseas, the most up-to-date figure fromtheOfficeofPersonnelManagementis21,393.11 Assum-ingthesameratiooffederalemployersoverseastodependentsasin2010producesanestimated35,833federalemployeesand their dependents for 2020.12 Adding the estimated number of military personnel and their families calculated above to theestimatednumberoffederalemployeesandtheirdependentscreatesanoverallestimatedFAOPof613,265.SubtractingoutthoseintheDistrictofColumbialeavesanFAOPof611,573.13ThisFAOPcanthenbeallocatedacrossthestatesbasedoneachstate’sshareoftheFAOPinthepriordecennialcensus.14AddingthestateFAOPtotheprojectedstatepopulationcreatesaprojectedapportionmentpopulationfor2020foreverystateshowninthethirdcolumnofTableA1.

Populations of Interest. The overall state population projections discussed above use the three most recent years of popula-tionestimatesfromtheCensusBureauprojectedforward.Fortheforeign-bornpopulation,theirU.S.-bornchildren,andthenon-citizenpopulationandtheirchildren,weuseasimilarapproach.Basedonthepublic-usedatafromtheAmericanCommunity Survey for the three most recent years of data, we use a linear model to project these populations forward to 2020 for each state.15TableA1showstheprojectedforeign-bornpopulationineachstatefor2020usingthisapproach.Thetable also shows the projected population of immigrants and their U.S.-born children and the non-citizen population and their children. We limit children to those with immigrant fathers. We then subtract these totals, depending on the population ofinterestfromthetotalprojectedpopulation(residentplusFAOP)andthenrecalculatetheapportionment.

Likely Illegal Immigrants. Thereisnoonedefinitiveestimateofillegalimmigrants.TheOfficeofImmigrationStatisticswithin theDepartmentofHomelandSecurityestimates thispopulation,butDHShaspopulationestimatesonly for the10stateswiththe largest illegal immigrantpopulationsandtheirmostrecentestimatesareonlythroughJanuary2015.16 Although the Pew Research Center estimates the number of illegal immigrants, we use the Center for Migration Studies’ (CMS)estimatesofillegalaliensfor2017,astheyprovideestimatesforeverystate.17 This analysis takes the CMS estimates atthestatelevelandsubtractsthemfromtheprojectedapportionmentpopulationsgeneratedabove.FortheU.S.-bornchil-drenunderage18,wealsouseestimatesprovidedbyCMS.TheapportionmentofHouseseatsabsentillegalaliensandtheirU.S.-born minor children can then be compared to the apportionment of seats when the illegal population is included. The differencerepresentstheimpactofillegalimmigration.

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State

AlabamaAlaskaArizonaArkansasCaliforniaColoradoConnecticutDelawareFloridaGeorgiaHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIndianaIowaKansasKentuckyLouisianaMaineMarylandMassachusettsMichiganMinnesotaMississippiMissouriMontanaNebraskaNevadaNew HampshireNew JerseyNew MexicoNew YorkNorth CarolinaNorthDakotaOhioOklahomaOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouthDakotaTennesseeTexasUtahVermontVirginiaWashingtonWestVirginiaWisconsinWyoming

Table A1. Apportionment of House Seats after 2020 Census Assuming Different Populations Were Not Present

Resident Pop.

4,907,710733,985

7,366,3413,034,60639,866,8945,830,0963,566,811982,510

21,889,05310,707,6601,413,7971,816,68812,666,7286,742,2523,177,3512,911,4854,494,9904,644,5941,344,6176,076,3866,968,48010,035,2855,688,2652,985,7336,161,3901,081,5691,949,6873,133,1261,368,9008,937,2822,097,49919,454,85810,582,410

764,40611,737,7123,956,5894,279,45312,826,0241,057,3015,194,295899,403

6,879,81229,371,6703,265,205628,473

8,611,3797,749,8201,783,4285,848,698571,310

FAOP

13,6746,64312,1676,06551,7859,2564,4301,73158,50923,4793,8603,48119,85210,4594,3726,2916,61112,1122,7729,6347,06816,4636,4446,43713,2662,9423,2265,2242,9279,1814,76125,26717,8231,94918,8197,96010,31319,1331,57712,1243,28317,25172,2714,0472,70421,59616,9594,0126,6142,749

Pop. w/o Immi-grants and Their U.S.-Born Minor

Children

4,649,548669,924

5,938,6142,806,89025,722,6494,953,4922,846,010869,724

16,320,6659,375,3671,089,1261,643,37410,164,5056,345,4712,972,1352,613,6014,238,2304,342,3931,299,1844,811,5345,257,4729,142,7854,920,9352,906,1875,789,3951,057,5591,724,1412,367,3981,255,0346,031,1671,818,84213,968,6989,321,941705,278

11,057,6723,578,4293,658,37911,704,945

887,3654,872,000844,958

6,479,16222,100,4902,878,088581,038

7,050,7486,096,8281,756,6715,536,666547,705

Pop. w/o Immigrants

4,750,733676,306

6,405,4222,885,76629,357,6975,278,1373,050,447890,652

17,229,7209,633,5871,148,0821,705,96010,862,5136,390,5252,996,8482,715,7384,310,2534,453,5311,303,4385,169,0285,708,6699,317,3005,168,4402,909,3355,911,1391,060,7411,810,4852,546,7951,277,8076,876,4351,901,11215,118,3639,732,462717,604

11,145,9383,712,1013,825,39011,873,050

930,9504,934,691863,658

6,529,92124,285,4022,971,240591,619

7,522,1336,574,7681,764,1735,565,836559,109

Pop. w/o Non-Citizens and

Their U.S.-Born Minor Children

4,765,381711,597

6,684,3032,881,63333,187,2275,418,4863,241,562914,076

19,484,51010,079,0461,288,0161,727,69911,506,0596,524,7693,042,2562,736,9654,333,6374,457,5751,317,7255,547,2426,204,3759,645,4835,407,8262,934,3755,995,7461,076,8241,833,6362,815,6471,323,9247,858,7051,953,85717,420,1909,816,381733,804

11,455,1673,713,4813,911,47612,274,524

997,7525,035,299875,034

6,652,64724,808,9373,024,751613,128

7,951,3986,954,0521,768,6915,657,257559,134

Pop. w/o Non-Citizens

4,821,901712,261

6,863,8602,941,24435,151,1305,559,2223,325,488932,683

19,977,74910,169,1881,314,9301,761,52911,841,5386,540,9803,068,2042,798,8714,387,0774,532,3021,325,7605,688,9866,394,5169,723,5485,451,1522,941,6116,044,5171,076,1231,877,1472,872,5411,340,8658,157,2721,986,11617,801,22210,053,889

739,50111,464,8743,809,3844,033,20912,390,9831,015,8085,065,888879,422

6,689,58826,266,5233,098,862614,646

8,138,5077,169,7051,779,8575,710,649563,658

Pop. w/o Illegal Immigrants and Their U.S.-Born Minor Children

4,821,764731,828

7,019,8842,961,62636,708,6155,605,7993,426,226945,134

21,025,47310,256,0751,379,4951,774,28112,035,7326,610,0923,122,2212,822,2864,445,7634,583,1451,344,5105,799,0986,763,2709,896,9525,589,6062,965,1316,103,4041,079,9081,889,4542,897,3321,357,8418,385,5352,025,10818,559,47810,158,172

761,55611,639,0573,849,9834,135,73412,616,9011,028,4825,099,566893,188

6,724,48326,869,7523,122,590626,773

8,329,5677,411,8141,785,0535,754,940565,344

Pop. w/o Illegal

Immigrants

4,860,155732,241

7,145,4882,990,64037,732,1015,685,5703,461,688959,887

21,239,17910,421,1201,387,5031,792,63812,260,6876,660,4873,144,3722,854,8094,460,7864,601,5501,345,3785,879,0556,804,6699,940,1275,623,6772,974,9776,126,9791,080,8041,913,7082,977,3621,360,0068,528,7452,053,48918,783,43810,322,523

761,97911,673,8303,885,6904,197,75412,674,4621,038,0355,134,246894,499

6,789,27627,768,8663,175,522627,781

8,407,9777,534,1691,785,2215,790,621568,806

Source:Projectionsfor2020areprimarilybasedonCensusBureaupopulationestimatesortheAmericanCommunitySurveycar-ried forward to 2020. Estimates for illegal aliens are based on estimates from the Center for Migration Studies. See methods section for more details.

Estimated Apportionment

Pop.

4,921,385740,628

7,378,5083,040,67239,918,6805,839,3523,571,241984,241

21,947,56210,731,1391,417,6571,820,16912,686,5806,752,7113,181,7232,917,7764,501,6014,656,7071,347,3906,086,0206,975,54810,051,7485,694,7082,992,1706,174,6551,084,5111,952,9133,138,3501,371,8268,946,4632,102,26119,480,12510,600,233

766,35511,756,5303,964,5494,289,76612,845,1581,058,8785,206,420902,686

6,897,06329,443,9413,269,252631,177

8,632,9757,766,7791,787,4405,855,312574,059

Appendix

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Center for Immigration Studies

End Notes1ThemostrecentdataavailablefromtheCensusBureauisthe2019CurrentPopulationSurveyAnnualSocialandEconomicSupplement,which shows45.8million legaland illegal immigrants in thecountry.The1960census showed9.7millionimmigrantsandthe1970censusshowed9.6million,sousingeithernumbershowsafour-and-a-halffoldincrease.

2Figuresarebasedonananalysisofthe2019public-usefileoftheCurrentPopulationSurveyAnnualSocialandEconomicSupplement, which is the most recent data available.

3TableA1intheappendixshowsthepopulationsusedtocreateeachscenarioinTable1.

4Thegovernmentestimatedin2016thattherewere 2.3millionlongtermtemporaryvisitors in the country, including guest-workers, foreign students, cultural exchange visitors, and foreign diplomats. This number is relatively stable, though it tends to rise over time. The vast majority will be counted in the census, though there will be some undercount. The Center for MigrationStudiesestimatesthattherewere9.84millionillegalaliensinCensusBureaudatain2017and,giventherecentinfluxatthesouthernborder,itseemscertainthenumberwillbeatleastthislargein2020.Givencurrenttrends,weproject21.8millionnon-citizensinthe2020census.Soitisalmostcertaintherewillbemorethan12millionnon-citizenswhoareeither illegal immigrants or long-term temporary visitors counted in the 2020 census, accounting for more than half of the totalnon-citizenpopulation.SeeBryanBaker,“NonimmigrantsResidingintheUnitedStates:FiscalYear2016”,OfficeofImmigrationStatistics,DepartmentofHomelandSecurity,March2018.

5TheU.S.CensusBureauhasadetailedexplanationofhowcongressionalapportionmentworkshere.

6TheCensusBureau’spopulationestimatesbystatecanbefoundhere.

7WeuseordinaryleastsquarestolinearlyprojectthepopulationbasedontheBureau’sestimatesfor2016,2017,and2018tocreate the resident population in 2020.

8Thisisimplementedbytakingthegrowthinthelastyearoftheprojection(2019to2020)andreducingittoreflectanApril1dateratherthantheCensusBureau’scontroldateofJuly1.

9TablePEPMONTHNgeneratedinAmericanFactfinderatCensus.gov,Themilitarypopulationcanbecalculatedbysub-tracting the first column from the second column. 10ThetotalsizeoftheFAOPanditscomponents—includingmilitarypersonnelandtheirdependents,andcivilianemploy-eesandtheirdependents—in2010canbefoundinTableA7ofKarenCrookandShirleyDruetto,“2010CensusFederallyAffiliatedOverseasCountOperationAssessment”,U.S.CensusBureau,March12,2012.Thetableshows410,696militarypersonneland592,153dependentsoraratioof1.44183to1in2010.

11OPMemploymentfigureforthoseoverseascanbefoundhere.

12 “2010CensusFederallyAffiliatedOverseasCountOperationAssessmentReport”,2010CensusPanningMemorandaSe-riesNo.181March20,2012.Thetableonp.2shows23,686overseasfederalemployeesin2010and15,988dependentsforaratioof1to.6749.MultiplyingthemostrecentfigurefromOPMof21,393by1.6749producesanestimateof35,833federaloverseas employers and their dependents for 2020.

13 Ibid.TableA1showstheFAOPbystateandtheDistrictofColumbiain2010.In2010,theDistrictofColumbia’sFAOPaccountedfor0.00276ofthetotalFAOPatthattime—2,875outof1,042,523FAOPresidents.Assumingthesameratiofor2020createsanestimatedFAOPusedforreapportionmentof611,573. 14 Ibid.TableA1showstheFAOPbystateandtheDistrictofColumbiain2010.

15Thethreemostrecentyearsofpublic-useACSdatacurrentlyavailableare2016,2017,and2018.Asisthecasefortotalresidentpopulation,weuseordinaryleastsquarestolinearlyprojectthesepopulations.

11

Center for Immigration Studies

16BryanBaker,“PopulationEstimates:IllegalAlienPopulationResidingintheUnitedStates:January2015”, OfficeofIm-migrationStatistics,DepartmentofHomelandSecurity,December2018.

17 The Center for Migration Studies’ most recent state level estimates can be found in Robert Warren, “USUndocumentedPopulationContinuedtoFallfrom2016to2017andVisaOverstaysSignificantlyExceededIllegalCrossingsfortheSeventhConsecutiveYear”,CenterforMigrationStudies,February2019.InanearlierreportforCMS,Warrenestimatedthat92.5percentofillegalimmigrantsarecountedinCensusBureaudata.SeeRobertWarren,“DemocratizingDataaboutUnauthor-izedResidentsintheUnitedStates:EstimatesandPublic-UseData,2010to2013”, Journal on Migration and Human Secu-rity,Vol.2No.4,2014.InanemailtotheauthorsonApril27,2018,Warrensuggestedassumingthat93percentofillegalimmigrants will be included in Census data, and this analysis uses that percentage for CMS state estimates for 2020.