c hapter 6. presidential nominating politics fundamental changes have occurred in presidential...

CHAPTER 6

Presidential Nominating PoliticsPresidential Nominating Politics

Fundamental changes have occurred in Fundamental changes have occurred in presidential presidential nominating politics in the past nominating politics in the past four decadesfour decades

A process once heavily dominated by party A process once heavily dominated by party leaders leaders is now more candidate centeredis now more candidate centered

A process that once relied upon internal party A process that once relied upon internal party procedures to select delegates through procedures to select delegates through

caucuses caucuses and conventions now relies and conventions now relies primarily upon primarily upon presidential primariespresidential primaries

Today, presidential nomination is an open and Today, presidential nomination is an open and participatory process characterized by mass participatory process characterized by mass

citizen citizen involvement in primaries and open involvement in primaries and open access to party access to party caucusescaucuses

Methods of Delegate SelectionMethods of Delegate Selection

The national nominating conventions held in the The national nominating conventions held in the summer of presidential election years are the summer of presidential election years are the culmination of a long season of campaigning to culmination of a long season of campaigning to select national convention delegatesselect national convention delegates

The delegates, meeting in convention, nominate The delegates, meeting in convention, nominate the the party’s candidates for president and party’s candidates for president and vice president, vice president, and the processes of delegate and the processes of delegate selection, therefore, selection, therefore, are critical to the are critical to the outcomes of the conventionoutcomes of the convention

There are three principal methods of delegate There are three principal methods of delegate selection:selection: 1.1. the presidential primarythe presidential primary

2. 2. the party caucus/convention the party caucus/convention processprocess

3. 3. automatic selection by virtue of a automatic selection by virtue of a person’s party or election positionperson’s party or election position

Figure 6.1. Delegate Selections to National Figure 6.1. Delegate Selections to National ConventionsConventions

Party/County/PrecinctCaucuses

State PartyConvention

CongressionalDistrict Caucuses

Congressional District Presidential Primaries

StatewidePresidential Primary

National PresidentialNominating Committee

Automatic Delegates (Democrats only)State Party Chairs

CNC MembersDemocratic Governors

80% of Democratic Senators and

Representatives

The Caucus/Convention States

The Presidential Primary States

Delegates representing the state at large

Delegates representing the state at large

Delegates representing congressional districts

Delegates representing congressional districts


Presidential PrimariesPresidential Primaries

The largest share of convention delegates is The largest share of convention delegates is chosen chosen through procedures involving through procedures involving presidential primaries, presidential primaries, and the use of them and the use of them has increased significantly in has increased significantly in the past decades the past decades (Figure 6.2.)(Figure 6.2.)

Figure 6.2. Number of States Holding Figure 6.2. Number of States Holding Presidential Primaries, 1912-2004Presidential Primaries, 1912-2004

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25

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45

501

91

2

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44

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48

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20

00

20

04

Nu

mb

er o

f S

tate

s

Democratic Delegates Republican Delegates

Source: Euchner, C. C., Maltese, J., & Nelson, M. (2002). Development of the presidential electoral process: The primary system. In Guide to the presidency (Vol. 1). Washington: CQ Press. Information for 2004 comes from DNC and RNC.


Presidential PrimariesPresidential Primaries

The largest share of convention delegates is The largest share of convention delegates is chosen chosen through procedures involving through procedures involving presidential primaries, presidential primaries, and the use of them has and the use of them has increased significantly in increased significantly in the past decades (Figure the past decades (Figure 6.2.)6.2.)

The number of primaries held in any given The number of primaries held in any given presidential election year depends heavily on presidential election year depends heavily on political conditions, such as an unopposed political conditions, such as an unopposed incumbent president, or financial conditions, such incumbent president, or financial conditions, such as as budget shortfalls in the states, who budget shortfalls in the states, who fund primariesfund primaries

Primaries are not only important to gain a Primaries are not only important to gain a convention majority, but also because of the image convention majority, but also because of the image

of candidate popularity that they can conveyof candidate popularity that they can convey


State Party Caucuses and ConventionsState Party Caucuses and Conventions

Until the 1972 conventions, a majority of the Until the 1972 conventions, a majority of the states states used state party caucuses and used state party caucuses and conventions to select conventions to select delegatesdelegates

The process of delegate selection involves a The process of delegate selection involves a progression of party meetings starting at the progression of party meetings starting at the

local local level, running through the level, running through the congressional district, and congressional district, and culminating in a culminating in a state party convention to elect state party convention to elect national national convention delegates to represent the state convention delegates to represent the state

Because the caucus system is an internal party Because the caucus system is an internal party process, it requires an effective organization to process, it requires an effective organization to mobilize people to turn out and support a mobilize people to turn out and support a

candidate candidate at each stage of the processat each stage of the process


Combined Presidential Primary and Convention Combined Presidential Primary and Convention SystemsSystems

Some states use a presidential primary to Some states use a presidential primary to elect elect national convention delegates, and national convention delegates, and a state party a state party convention to choose the convention to choose the delegates that will delegates that will represent the state at largerepresent the state at large

Automatic Unpledged DelegatesAutomatic Unpledged Delegates

In an effort to increase convention In an effort to increase convention participation by participation by major party leaders and major party leaders and elected officials, the elected officials, the Democrats grant them Democrats grant them automatic delegate status automatic delegate status (“super (“super delegates”)delegates”)

Phases of the Nomination ProcessPhases of the Nomination Process

Achieving a presidential nomination has Achieving a presidential nomination has become a become a full-time, often four-year, endeavorfull-time, often four-year, endeavor

As a result, a substantial share of the major As a result, a substantial share of the major party party nominees in recent years nominees in recent years (excluding incumbent (excluding incumbent presidents and vice presidents and vice presidents) have been presidents) have been politicians out of officepoliticians out of office

The lengthy and often intense schedule of the The lengthy and often intense schedule of the presidential nominating process can be presidential nominating process can be

broken broken down into a series of phases that down into a series of phases that culminate with the culminate with the national conventionnational convention

Phase 1: Laying the Groundwork and Phase 1: Laying the Groundwork and Preliminary Skirmishing: The “Invisible Preliminary Skirmishing: The “Invisible

Primary”Primary” Early campaign preparations include recruiting Early campaign preparations include recruiting a a professional staff, creating a political action professional staff, creating a political action

committee (PAC) to fund candidate activities, committee (PAC) to fund candidate activities, and and developing a campaign plandeveloping a campaign plan

Candidates criss-cross the nation, making Candidates criss-cross the nation, making appearances to raise funds, gain media attention, appearances to raise funds, gain media attention,

and make contacts with party leadersand make contacts with party leaders

During the year preceding the presidential During the year preceding the presidential election, election, called the “invisible primary” season, called the “invisible primary” season, the pace of the pace of campaigning accelerates, with campaigning accelerates, with frequent visits to frequent visits to key primary states and state key primary states and state party conventionsparty conventions

During this time, fundraising is also a key During this time, fundraising is also a key activityactivity

Phase 2: Delegate Selection: The Early Phase 2: Delegate Selection: The Early Contests and the Consequences of Front-Contests and the Consequences of Front-

LoadingLoading The early contests for delegates are important not The early contests for delegates are important not

only because of the number of delegates at stake only because of the number of delegates at stake but also because the results of these events but also because the results of these events

establish front-runners for the nominationestablish front-runners for the nomination

The early stage of the primary and caucus season The early stage of the primary and caucus season has been described as the “media fishbowl” phase has been described as the “media fishbowl” phase of the campaign, due to the great impact of media of the campaign, due to the great impact of media coverage and assessmentscoverage and assessments

Events of critical importance are the Iowa Events of critical importance are the Iowa caucuses, the first major delegate selection event of caucuses, the first major delegate selection event of

the season, and the New Hampshire primary, the season, and the New Hampshire primary, which which is by state statute the first in the nation is by state statute the first in the nation (Figure (Figure 6.3.) 6.3.)

Figure 6.3. Effects of Iowa Caucus Results on Figure 6.3. Effects of Iowa Caucus Results on Public Support for Kerry and Dean in New Public Support for Kerry and Dean in New

Hampshire, 2004Hampshire, 2004

Source: American Research Group.

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1/11 1/12 1/13 1/14 1/15 1/16 1/17 1/18 1/19 1/20 1/21 1/22 1/23 1/24 1/25 1/26

Date of Tracking Poll

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Dean Kerry

Phase 2: Delegate Selection: The Early Phase 2: Delegate Selection: The Early Contests and the Consequences of Front-Contests and the Consequences of Front-

LoadingLoadingFront-Loading the Presidential PrimariesFront-Loading the Presidential Primaries

The concentrating of primaries and caucuses that The concentrating of primaries and caucuses that select the select the bulk of delegates during February and bulk of delegates during February and March of the election March of the election year is called “front-loading,” year is called “front-loading,” and has decreased the and has decreased the importance of the Iowa importance of the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire caucuses and the New Hampshire primaryprimary

Front-loading is mainly an effort by the states to give Front-loading is mainly an effort by the states to give their their electorates greater influence over the electorates greater influence over the selection of selection of presidential nominees, but it also presidential nominees, but it also increases the influence of increases the influence of party leaders over party leaders over nominationsnominations

Front-loading has the effect of favoring candidates Front-loading has the effect of favoring candidates who have who have name recognition, are well organized name recognition, are well organized nationwide, and have nationwide, and have ample financial resourcesample financial resources

Table 6.1. Front-Loading of the Democratic Table 6.1. Front-Loading of the Democratic Presidential Primaries, 2004Presidential Primaries, 2004

Date State PrimaryNumber of Delegates

at Stake Date State PrimaryNumber of Delegates

at Stake

January 27 New Hampshire 22 — Majority of Convention Were Chosen by March 2 —

February 3 Arizona 55

Delaware 15 — Edwards Withdraws, Assuring Kerry of the Nomination —

Missouri 74

Oklahoma 40 March 9 Florida 177

South Carolina 45 Louisiana 60

February 7 Michigan 128 Mississippi 33

February 10 Tennessee 69 Texas 195

Virginia 82 March 16 Illinois 156

— Wesley Clark Withdraws —

— Kerry Wins a Majority of Convention Delegates —

February 17 Wisconsin 72 April 27 Pennsylvania 151

— Howard Dean Withdraws —

May 4 Indiana 67

May 11 Nebraska 24

February 24 Utah 23 West Virginia 28

March 2 California 370 May 18 Arkansas 36

(“Super Tuesday”) Connecticut 49 Kentucky 49

Georgia 86 Oregon 46

Maryland 69 June 1 Alabama 54

Massachusetts 93 South Dakota 14

New York 236 June 8 Montana 15

Ohio 140 New Jersey 107

Rhode Island 21

Vermont 15

Note: Only primaries are listed. The withdrawal of John Edwards after the March 2 primaries meant that the Republican nomination was essentially decided before twenty-three states had selected their delegates

Figure 6.4. Comparison of Front-Loading in the Figure 6.4. Comparison of Front-Loading in the 1976, 2000, and 2004 Democratic Nomination 1976, 2000, and 2004 Democratic Nomination

CampaignsCampaigns

Source: Democratic National Committee.

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Weeks After New Hampshire Primary

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2004 2000 1976

Table 6.2. Trend toward Early Capture of Table 6.2. Trend toward Early Capture of Presidential Nominations, 1972-2004Presidential Nominations, 1972-2004

Year Candidate and Party Date

2004 George W. Bush (Rep.) March 9

2004 John Kerry (Dem.) March 17

2000 George W. Bush (Rep.) March 14

2000 Al Gore (Dem.) March 14

1996 Bill Clinton (Dem.) March 12

1996 Bob Dole (Rep.) March 26

1992 George Bush (Rep.) April 28

1992 Bill Clinton (Dem.) June 2

1988 George Bush (Rep.) April 26

1988 Michael Dukakis (Dem.) June 7

1984 Ronald Reagan (Rep.) May 8

1984 Walter Mondale (Dem.) June 5

1980 Ronald Reagan (Rep.) May 26

1980 Jimmy Carter (Dem.) June 3

1976 Jimmy Carter (Dem.) July 14 (at the convention)

1976 Gerald Ford (Rep.) August 19 (at the convention)

1972 George McGovern (Dem.) July 12 (at the convention

1972 Richard Nixon (Rep.) August 22 (at the convention)Sources: Associated Press, “Dates on Which Candidates Clinched the Nomination for the Presidency in Their Parties,” March 15, 2000 (Lexis-Nexis); Ceci Connolly, “Bush, Gore Clinch Nominations,” Washington Post, March 15, 2000, p. A6.

Dates on Which Presidential Nominees Gained a Majority of the National Convention Delegates

Phase 3: Delegate Selection: The Later Phase 3: Delegate Selection: The Later Primaries and CaucusesPrimaries and Caucuses

The early primaries and caucuses traditionally The early primaries and caucuses traditionally establish who is the front-runner, which establish who is the front-runner, which

candidates candidates are still serious contenders, and even are still serious contenders, and even indicate who indicate who is going to be the nomineeis going to be the nominee

Front-loading renders the later primaries little Front-loading renders the later primaries little more more than formalities, since the front-than formalities, since the front-runners are already runners are already more or less assured more or less assured nominationnomination

Even if the early primaries are inconclusive, Even if the early primaries are inconclusive, experience has shown that front-runners do not experience has shown that front-runners do not need to capture all the later primaries to win, need to capture all the later primaries to win, especially for Democrats, who use a especially for Democrats, who use a

proportional proportional system to allocate delegatessystem to allocate delegates

Phase 4: The Convention: Ratifying the Decision of Phase 4: The Convention: Ratifying the Decision of the Primaries and Kicking Off the General Election the Primaries and Kicking Off the General Election

CampaignCampaign National conventions are no longer deliberative National conventions are no longer deliberative

bodies whose delegates weigh the competing bodies whose delegates weigh the competing claims claims of rival candidates for the nomination, of rival candidates for the nomination, but rather a but rather a body that ratifies the decisions of body that ratifies the decisions of presidential presidential primaries and caucusesprimaries and caucuses

The principal function of national conventions is The principal function of national conventions is to to kick off the general election campaign kick off the general election campaign by projecting by projecting the party’s candidate image during the party’s candidate image during a time of a a time of a virtual monopoly on television news virtual monopoly on television news coveragecoverage

A convention where the candidates are A convention where the candidates are relatively relatively close in delegate strength is apt to be close in delegate strength is apt to be contentious contentious and potentially divisiveand potentially divisive

The Ongoing Process of Party ReformThe Ongoing Process of Party Reform

The rules governing presidential nomination The rules governing presidential nomination politics politics have been and continue to be points have been and continue to be points of contentionof contention

The immediate cause of the latest surge of The immediate cause of the latest surge of nomination reforms were the divisive 1968 and nomination reforms were the divisive 1968 and 1972 1972 Democratic conventions and the Democratic conventions and the Watergate scandal Watergate scandal of the early 1970sof the early 1970s

These events, plus attempts to remedy These events, plus attempts to remedy problems in problems in the nomination process that were the nomination process that were perceived to have perceived to have contributed to the Democrats contributed to the Democrats losing five of six losing five of six presidential elections presidential elections between 1968 and 1988, between 1968 and 1988, created a powerful created a powerful impetus for reform within the impetus for reform within the Democratic PartyDemocratic Party


The Reformed DemocratsThe Reformed Democrats

Before the 1972 Democratic convention, the Before the 1972 Democratic convention, the McGovern-Fraser CommissionMcGovern-Fraser Commission proposed a series of proposed a series of changes in the Democrats’ nomination process:changes in the Democrats’ nomination process:

-- increased openness of state party rules of delegate increased openness of state party rules of delegate selectionselection

-- proportional representation in the allocation of delegatesproportional representation in the allocation of delegates-- ban of open presidential primariesban of open presidential primaries-- automatic delegate status was granted to some officialsautomatic delegate status was granted to some officials-- Affirmative action in participationAffirmative action in participation-- state delegates must be composed of an equal division of state delegates must be composed of an equal division of

men and womenmen and women-- ¾ of a state’s delegates must be selected through ¾ of a state’s delegates must be selected through

primaries or caucuses at the congressional district levelprimaries or caucuses at the congressional district level


The Reformed Democrats (continued)The Reformed Democrats (continued)

These changes have transformed the nomination These changes have transformed the nomination process process most significantly by reducing the most significantly by reducing the ability of party leaders to ability of party leaders to influence or control the influence or control the delegate selection processdelegate selection process

The Democratic reforms also encourages the The Democratic reforms also encourages the proliferation of proliferation of presidential primaries and thereby presidential primaries and thereby made the nomination made the nomination process highly participatory, process highly participatory, candidate centered, and media candidate centered, and media orientedoriented

The reform process also had disadvantages for the The reform process also had disadvantages for the Democratic party, such as a tendency to break into Democratic party, such as a tendency to break into

factions factions caused by the introduction of caused by the introduction of proportional representation, proportional representation, thus making party unity thus making party unity more difficultmore difficult


The Unreformed Republicans The Unreformed Republicans

Unlike the Democrats, the Republicans have Unlike the Democrats, the Republicans have sought sought to maintain the basic party structure to maintain the basic party structure and rules that and rules that evolved prior to the era of the evolved prior to the era of the Democratic reformsDemocratic reforms

Republican rules differ from those used by the Republican rules differ from those used by the Democrats in several ways:Democrats in several ways:

-- Republican rules are harder to change, as it is Republican rules are harder to change, as it is centralizedcentralized

-- Delegate apportionment among states is weighted, and Delegate apportionment among states is weighted, and thus less representativethus less representative

-- The Republicans maintain the confederate character of The Republicans maintain the confederate character of the the party, giving the state parties more latitudeparty, giving the state parties more latitude

-- The Republicans do not have automatic delegatesThe Republicans do not have automatic delegates


Campaign Finance: The Federal Election Campaign ActCampaign Finance: The Federal Election Campaign Act

The Watergate revelations of campaign finance in The Watergate revelations of campaign finance in 1972 lead to the enactment of campaign finance 1972 lead to the enactment of campaign finance reforms, the FECA Amendments of 1974reforms, the FECA Amendments of 1974

In 2002, Congress enacted the Bipartisan Campaign In 2002, Congress enacted the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (BCRA), which left in place the FECA’s Reform Act (BCRA), which left in place the FECA’s provisions for public funding but amended provisions for public funding but amended

contribution limitscontribution limits

Candidates for major-party nominations are eligible, Candidates for major-party nominations are eligible, but can also decline, to receive federal matching but can also decline, to receive federal matching

funds funds for their campaigns if they comply with for their campaigns if they comply with certain certain conditions, including an overall conditions, including an overall expenditure limitexpenditure limit


Campaign Finance: The FECA (continued)Campaign Finance: The FECA (continued) Refusing public funding has become more common in Refusing public funding has become more common in the last two nomination campaigns, because of:the last two nomination campaigns, because of:

-- Successful early fundraisingSuccessful early fundraising

-- The expectation that others would also forego the limitsThe expectation that others would also forego the limits

-- The fact that front-loading required early expenditure, risking The fact that front-loading required early expenditure, risking that the campaign could hit the overall limit at that the campaign could hit the overall limit at

an early stage, leaving no an early stage, leaving no money for the general election money for the general election campaigncampaign

Nevertheless, the contribution limits still apply to Nevertheless, the contribution limits still apply to candidates, affecting their campaigns in several ways:candidates, affecting their campaigns in several ways:

-- Campaigns have become longerCampaigns have become longer

-- Fund-raising has become highly publicFund-raising has become highly public

-- Well-known candidates have an advantageWell-known candidates have an advantage

Participation in Presidential Nominating Participation in Presidential Nominating PoliticsPolitics

Although the extent of public participation in Although the extent of public participation in candidate selection has been a continuing concern candidate selection has been a continuing concern of reformers, in practice, participation rates in of reformers, in practice, participation rates in presidential nominating politics remain quite lowpresidential nominating politics remain quite low

Voter Turnout in Presidential PrimariesVoter Turnout in Presidential Primaries Voter turnout in primaries has consistently been Voter turnout in primaries has consistently been lower than that in general electionslower than that in general elections With the proliferation of primaries, however, the With the proliferation of primaries, however, the total number of people participating has increasedtotal number of people participating has increased With Republican primary voters tending to be With Republican primary voters tending to be more more conservative and Democratic conservative and Democratic primary voters more primary voters more liberal than their voters in liberal than their voters in general elections, general elections, primaries may lead to biases in primaries may lead to biases in the decisions on the decisions on nominationsnominations


Participation in Caucuses/ConventionsParticipation in Caucuses/Conventions Since caucus meetings are often lengthy and Since caucus meetings are often lengthy and contentious, citizen participation is often very lowcontentious, citizen participation is often very low The Iowa caucus is an exception, and it normally The Iowa caucus is an exception, and it normally

attracts 14-20 percent of the registered votersattracts 14-20 percent of the registered voters Caucus voters, like primary voters, tend to be Caucus voters, like primary voters, tend to be better educated and older than the average voter, better educated and older than the average voter, but they also tend to be more partisan, and have but they also tend to be more partisan, and have stronger ideologies than primary votersstronger ideologies than primary voters More ideologically extreme voters, therefore, More ideologically extreme voters, therefore, usually do better in caucuses than in primariesusually do better in caucuses than in primaries Candidates with strong organizations capable of Candidates with strong organizations capable of mobilizing their supporters also tend to do wellmobilizing their supporters also tend to do well


National Convention DelegatesNational Convention Delegates National convention delegates are not a National convention delegates are not a representative cross section of their parties’ representative cross section of their parties’ voters, voters, but also tend to be drawn from but also tend to be drawn from well-educated, well-educated, middle- and upper-class strata of middle- and upper-class strata of society (Table 6.4)society (Table 6.4) The most striking differences between The most striking differences between Republican Republican and Democratic delegates are not in and Democratic delegates are not in their their socioeconomic characteristics but in socioeconomic characteristics but in their political their political philosophies and positions on philosophies and positions on public-policy issuespublic-policy issues It is clear that the delegates from both parties It is clear that the delegates from both parties are are ideologically unrepresentative of ideologically unrepresentative of their voters, their voters, creating an ideological biascreating an ideological bias Such a bias can be damaging, as the parties risk Such a bias can be damaging, as the parties risk to to lose important centrist voterslose important centrist voters

Table 6.4. Democratic and Republican National Table 6.4. Democratic and Republican National Convention Delegates and Voters Compared (%)Convention Delegates and Voters Compared (%)

Democratic Delegates

Democratic Voters All Voters G.O.P. Voters

G.O.P. Delegates

Men 50 43 49 52 57

Women 50 57 51 47 43

White 68 61 78 94 85

Black 18 28 14 2 6

Asian American 3 2 2 1 2

Hispanic 12 15 11 12 7

Political ideology

Very liberal 22 12 7 2 1

Somewhat liberal 19 21 13 4 1

Moderate 52 52 34 30 33

Somewhat conservative 3 15 22 31 27

Very conservative * 4 13 25 33

Member of a labor union 25 15 13 12 3

College graduate 24 15 19 23 29

Postgraduate 53 13 11 9 44

Family income

Under $50,000 15 57 45 37 8

$50,000–$75,000 21 19 21 20 26

Over $75,000 61 22 29 35 58

Source: New York Times/CBS Poll. * Less than 1 percent.

Media Politics in Presidential NominationsMedia Politics in Presidential Nominations The media has always played a significant role in The media has always played a significant role in

presidential nominating politics because presidential nominating politics because reporters reporters and commentators make decisions and commentators make decisions about: about:

-- how much coverage candidates gethow much coverage candidates get-- which candidates did well or poorly in which candidates did well or poorly in

primaries/caucusesprimaries/caucuses-- which candidates are the front-runnerswhich candidates are the front-runners

These decisions can have a significant influence These decisions can have a significant influence on on how the field of candidates is narrowed downhow the field of candidates is narrowed down In recent campaigns, the Internet has become In recent campaigns, the Internet has become an an increasingly important part of the campaign increasingly important part of the campaign for the for the nomination, both to easily provide nomination, both to easily provide information, and information, and to raise fundsto raise funds The role of the internet also increases with the The role of the internet also increases with the increased importance of blogs and online news increased importance of blogs and online news sites as a news sourcesites as a news source

c hapter 6. presidential nominating politics fundamental changes have occurred in presidential...

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