CLIMATE RESEARCH IN THE CARIBBEAN

Climate Studies Group, Mona (CSGM)

Department of Physics

University of the West Indies, Mona

CARIBBEAN CLIMATE RESEARCH

Task

Quick idea of some of the climate research being done in the Caribbean.

Why

Research supports the delivery of services. Validation of service (e.g. forecasts) Establishing linkages especially for socio-economic impacts Providing justifications and explanations Assisting in the development and targeting of service Understanding and helping to express uncertainties and

limitations

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CARIBBEAN CLIMATE RESEARCH

• Fair amount of climate science research being done about the Caribbean.

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• Fair amount of climate science research being done about the Caribbean within the Caribbean.

Existing Knowledge Base to underpin the provision of climate services – databases, theories, approaches, questions, limitations…

Existing Knowledge Generation Capacity to build on in underpinning the provision of climate services – institutes, personnel…

“It’s okay to use the words Climate research and Caribbean in the same sentence…”

CARIBBEAN CLIMATE RESEARCH

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What is some of the Research?

Research that is trying to at least answer 4 questions (being asked of climate researchers…)

WHAT?

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1

2

3

4

CARIBBEAN CLIMATE RESEARCH QUESTIONS

WHAT YOU MEAN BY CARIBBEAN CLIMATE?

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1

2

3

4

Interest: Defining it and its drivers

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1. Dry SeasonDecember - April

3. Bimodal - MSD Early season - May-July Late Season - Aug –Nov

2. Rainfall Season May - NovemberPeaks in September/October

Rainfall Climatology

1 2

3

1

CARIBBEAN CLIMATOLOGY

2

3

4

Ashby et al. (2004)

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High Pressure

Trade Wind Strength + vertical shear

SSTs

Easterly Waves

(3)

0

50

100

150

mm

24252627282930

Cel

siu

s

NAH moves closer to equator

Stronger trades

Low SST

Mid-lat fronts

NAH starts Northward migration

Weaker trades

SST begins to increase

NAH temporarily retreats Southward

‘Mid-Summer Drought’

NAH return Northward

High SST

Easterly waves

ITCZ North

J amaica

Climatology (Bar graph – precip, line graph – temp)

Air Temp follows the sun

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2

3

4

CARIBBEAN CLIMATOLOGY

Ashby et al. (2004)

WHAT?

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1

3

4

CARIBBEAN CLIMATE RESEARCH QUESTIONS

2

WELL WHAT?

…IS CLIMATE?

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WELL WHAT ABOUT LAST YEAR?

1

3

4

2

Interest: Explaining modes of variability and manifestation of those modes.

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160W 120W 80W 40W

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40N

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(a)

(c) (d)

(b) NDJ

FMA

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MJJ

ASO

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(a) (b)

(c) (d)

MJJ

ASO

2. Dry season drier in south Caribbean

1. Late wet season drier in most of the Caribbean

3. Early Wet season drier in most of the Caribbean

El Niño

MODES OF VARIABILITY

1

3

4

2

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20N

(a)

(c) (d)

(b) NDJ

FMA

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(a) (b)

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MJJ

ASO

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(a) (b)

(c) (d)

MJJ

ASO

2. Dry season drier in south Caribbean

1. Late wet season drier in most of the Caribbean

3. Early Wet season drier in most of the Caribbean

El Niño

MODES OF VARIABILITY

1

3

4

2

Changes large scale circulations

Increases shear Warms Caribbean Sea

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NAO+ ENSO

Combinations of Patterns of variability

+50% a 3-5 yrs+15-30% a 5-10 yrs20% a >10 yrs

+60% a 3-5 yrs15-30% a 5-10 yrs

<50% a 3-5 yrs15-30% a 5-10 yrs16-33% a >10 yrs

Gouirand et al. (2011)

MODES OF VARIABILITY

1

3

4

2

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Gradients in SSTs between Equatorial Pacific and Tropical Atlantic

Low level wind strengths (CLLJ)

Drier than normal Caribbean basin during midsummer drought

MODES OF VARIABILITY

1

3

4

2

Gradient Indices

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Caribbean Rain/Drought Models

MJJ RAIN = – 0.0610 + 0.3111 NINO3(FMA) – 0.0675 SLP2(FMA) – 0.0299 SLP4(FMA) + 0.1187 VSH4(FMA)

ASON RAIN = – 0.0280 + 1.5822 CSST(MJJ) – 0.7227 PACEq(MJJ) – 0.5739 PACTNA(MJJ)

R2 = 0.76

R2 = 0.70

MODES OF VARIABILITY

1

3

4

2

WHAT?

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1

4

CARIBBEAN CLIMATE RESEARCH QUESTIONS

2

WELL WHAT?

3 SO WHAT?

…IS CLIMATE?

…ABOUT DEVIATIONS?

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Indices of Extremes

SO WHAT ABOUT THAT BIG DROUGHT IN 2010?

1

4

3

23 month SPI Jamaica

6 month SPI Jamaica

Walters et al. (2011)

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Interest: Manifestation and Influences

CLIMATE EXTREMES

1

4

3

2

12 month SPI Jamaica

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SST composite: Flood minus Drought

1

4

3

2

CLIMATE EXTREMES

Interest: Manifestation and Influences

WHAT?

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1

CARIBBEAN CLIMATE RESEARCH QUESTIONS

2

WELL WHAT?

3 SO WHAT?

4

WHAT NEXT?

…IS CLIMATE?

…ABOUT DEVIATIONS?

…ABOUT EXTREMES?

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Interest: Historical and Future Climate Change and Impacts

WHAT ABOUT THE NEXT 50 YEARS?

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2

3

4

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Stephenson et al (2013)

Total rainfall

Intense rainfall

1961-2010 1986-2010

Historical Change

CLIMATE CHANGE

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2

4

3

TOOLS

PRECIS RCM

WRF RCM

SDSMMRI AGCM (20 km)

RegCM4.

RainSiM

LARS WG

Aqua Crop

Future Change

CLIMATE CHANGE

1

2

4

3

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Mean changes in the annual rainfall for 2071-2099 with respect to 1961-1989, as simulated by PRECIS_ECH and PRECIS_Had for SRESA2 and SRESB2.

General tendency for drying (main Caribbean basin) by end of the century.

Drying between 25% and 30%

Possibly wetter far north Caribbean NDJ and FMA.

Drying exceeds natural variability June-October – wet season dryer!

CLIMATE CHANGE

1

4

2

3

Campbell et al. (2010)

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Mean changes in the annual mean surface temperature for 2071-2099 with respect to 1961-1989, as simulated by PRECIS_ECH and PRECIS_Had for SRESA2 and SRESB2.

Irrespective of scenario the Caribbean expected to warm.

Warming between 1 and 5oC

Warming greater under A2 scenario.

Warming consistent with projections for other parts of globe.

Warming far exceeds natural variability

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4

2

3

CLIMATE CHANGE

Campbell et al. (2010)

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hothotter

Taylor et al. (2011)

CLIMATE CHANGE

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4

2

3

Why?

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Modeling the impact of climate change on the hydropower potential of Suriname – A study of the Kabalebo river basin

HYDRO model, GIS, PRECIS (25 km)

CLIMATE CHANGE

1

4

2

3

Nurmohamed et al. (201`3)

WHAT?

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1

CARIBBEAN CLIMATE RESEARCH

2

WELL WHAT?

3 SO WHAT?

4

WHAT NEXT?

CLIMATOLOGY

VARIABILITY

EXTREMESCLIMATE CHANGE

CARIBBEAN CLIMATE RESEARCH

• Fair amount of climate science research being done about the Caribbean.

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• Fair amount of climate science research being done about the Caribbean within the Caribbean.

Existing Knowledge Base to underpin the provision of climate services – databases, theories, approaches, questions, limitations…

Existing Knowledge Generation Capacity to build on in underpinning the provision of climate services – institutes, personnel…

“It’s okay to use the words Climate research and Caribbean in the same sentence…”

CARIBBEAN CLIMATE RESEARCH

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Still many limitations…

1) Capacity – Technical and Human2) Recognition versus support dilemma3) Questions outpace capacity4) Need to deliver the end before the beginning

“It’s okay to use the words Climate research and Caribbean in the same sentence…”

INSTITUTIONS OF CLIMATE RESEARCH

UWI (CSGM and other Campuses, Departments and Institutes) CIMH INSMET5 C’sAntom De Kom (University of Suriname)Meteorological ServicesResearch arms or Regional and National Sectoral Institutions

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Thank You