c. s. mackie -...

AERIAL CENSUS OFELEPHANTS AND OTHERLARGE HERBIVORES IN THEZAMBEZI VALLEY,ZIMBABWE: 2001

C. S. Mackie

WWF - SARPO Occasional PaperNumber 2

June 2002

This census was carried out jointly by the Department of National Parks and Wild Life Management andWWF-SARPO (WWF Project No: ZW 0025). This report has also been published by the Department of National Parksand Wild Life Management.

The 2001 aerial survey and this publication were made possible through support made available by the Office of USAID Harareunder the terms of project 613-0241 and grant 690-0251-4-9001-00.The opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the view of USAID.This material has been produced by the authority of, and for the use of CAMPFIRE in Zimbabwe, for information purposes only.

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SUMMARY

Elephants and other large herbivores, wild and domestic, in the Parks and Wild Life Estateand Communal Lands within the Zambezi Valley in northern Zimbabwe were surveyed fromthe air during the period 15 July – 8 August (block counts) and 6-14 September 2001 (transectcounts). Transects counts were used over the major part of the area. The area surveyedtotalled 17,127 km2 and included Mana Pools National Park, Hurungwe, Sapi, Dande, Doma,Charara and Chewore Safari Areas, and those parts of the Communal Lands of Guruve,Hurungwe and Centenary Districts where there are resident elephants. The overall samplingintensity of block and transect counts was 15.5 %.

The survey was designed to estimate the number of elephants. Some large herbivores are noteasily seen from the air and their numbers were undoubtedly underestimated. Nonetheless,population estimates are given for these species, because the estimates provide useful indicesof abundance (with measures of precision) that can be used to determine spatial distribution,as well as temporal trends in population number. No corrections have been applied to any ofthe estimates to compensate for any undercounting or missed animals.

The estimated population numbers of the principal large herbivores were: elephant 19,297(95% confidence interval (CI) 13.1 %, or between 16,776 and 21,819 elephants); buffalo14,909 (CI 34.9 %); hippo 3,169 (CI 29.2 %); zebra 1,672 (CI 28.7 %); sable 656 (CI 58.8%); waterbuck 777 (CI 34.3 %); kudu 1,823 (CI 22.1 %); roan 115 (CI 134.6 %); impala10,117 (CI 25.5 %); cattle 8,148 (CI 54.5 %); and sheep and goats 13,643 (CI 53.8 %).

The estimated total number of elephant carcasses of all age categories (793) represented 3.95% of the estimated total number of live and dead elephants. This is not significantly differentfrom the carcass ratio of 3.31% (596 carcasses) during 1998, but was lower than in 1999when the ratio was 11.25% (1,378 carcasses) on the Zambezi Valley floor alone.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

SUMMARY................................................................................................................................1TABLE OF CONTENTS ...........................................................................................................2LIST OF TABLES......................................................................................................................3LIST OF MAPS..........................................................................................................................4INTRODUCTION......................................................................................................................5METHODS.................................................................................................................................5

Survey Area ............................................................................................................................5Survey Design .........................................................................................................................5Flight Procedure ....................................................................................................................6

Transect counts ...................................................................................................................6Block counts .......................................................................................................................6

Strip Width and Calibration ...................................................................................................7Data Analysis..........................................................................................................................8

RESULTS...................................................................................................................................8DISCUSSION.............................................................................................................................9

Elephants ................................................................................................................................9Other wildlife..........................................................................................................................9Poaching and illegal activity..................................................................................................9

REFERENCES ...........................................................................................................................9ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS......................................................................................................10Appendix 1. Calibration to determine strip width ....................................................................53Appendix 2. Aerial Survey Flight Times .................................................................................54Appendix 3. Transect start and end points. ..............................................................................55Appendix 4. Transect Summaries.............................................................................................62

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LIST OF TABLES

Table 1. Sampling statistics for the survey of the Zambezi Valley: 2001................................11Table 2. Population estimates and statistics for Elephant Bulls and Cows in the Zambezi

Valley ...............................................................................................................................13Table 3. Population estimates and statistics for Elephant Bulls in the Zambezi Valley .........15Table 4. Population estimates and statistics for Elephant Cows in the Zambezi Valley.........17Table 5. Population estimates and statistics for Elephant Carcasses 1 in the Zambezi Valley 19Table 6. Population estimates and statistics for Elephant Carcasses 2 in the Zambezi Valley 21Table 7. Population estimates and statistics for Elephant Carcasses 3 and carcass ratios (for all

carcasses) in the Zambezi Valley .....................................................................................23Table 8. Population estimates and statistics for Unidentified Carcasses in the Zambezi Valley

..........................................................................................................................................25Table 9. Population estimates and statistics for Buffalo in the Zambezi Valley......................27Table 10. Population estimates and statistics for Sable in the Zambezi Valley .......................29Table 11. Population estimates and statistics for Waterbuck in the Zambezi Valley ..............31Table 12. Population estimates and statistics for Kudu in the Zambezi Valley .......................33Table 13. Population estimates and statistics for Eland in the Zambezi Valley.......................35Table 14. Population estimates and statistics for Roan in the Zambezi Valley .......................37Table 15. Population estimates and statistics for Zebra in the Zambezi Valley......................39Table 16. Population estimates and statistics for Impala in the Zambezi Valley.....................41Table 17. Population estimates and statistics for Hippo in the Zambezi Valley ......................43Table 18. Population estimates and statistics for Crocodile in the Zambezi Valley ................45Table 19. Population estimates and statistics for Cattle in the Zambezi Valley ......................47Table 20. Population estimates and statistics for Sheep and Goats in the Zambezi Valley .....49Table 21. Population estimates and statistics for Donkeys in the Zambezi Valley..................51

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LIST OF MAPS

Map 1. The survey area in the Zambezi Valley, Zimbabwe.....................................................12Map 2. Distribution of Elephants in the Zambezi Valley.........................................................14Map 3. Distribution of Elephant Bulls in the Zambezi Valley.................................................16Map 4. Distribution of Elephant Cows in the Zambezi Valley ................................................18Map 5. Distribution of Buffalo in the Zambezi Valley ............................................................28Map 6. Distribution of Sable in the Zambezi Valley................................................................30Map 7. Distribution of Waterbuck in the Zambezi Valley .......................................................32Map 8. Distribution of Kudu in the Zambezi Valley................................................................34Map 9. Distribution of Eland in the Zambezi Valley ...............................................................36Map 10. Distribution of Roan in the Zambezi Valley ..............................................................38Map 11. Distribution of Zebra in the Zambezi Valley .............................................................40Map 12. Distribution of Impala in the Zambezi Valley ...........................................................42Map 13. Distribution of Cattle in the Zambezi Valley .............................................................48Map 14. Distribution of Sheep and goats in the Zambezi Valley ............................................50

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INTRODUCTION

Large wild and domestic herbivores were censused in the Zambezi Valley, as part of acontinuing programme to monitor their numbers in the Parks and Wild Life Estate andCommunal Lands. This region covers an area north-east of the Sebungwe region, being joinedby a small “bridge” of wild land. There are no physical barriers within the region to restrictwildlife movements. The boundaries are mostly heavily settled Communal Lands and there isa poorly maintained steel wire fence, which is designed to restrict buffalo and cattlemovements. This fence is an eastern extension of that fence which circumscribes theSebungwe region, but for the most part does not restrict elephant movements. The presence ofmany people and concomitant agriculture however is a deterrent to elephant movements.

There are only small areas of wildlife habitat to the south, which results in an isolated systemfor wildlife except to the north and north-east of the region. To the north is Zambia’s LowerZambezi National Park and to the north-east is the Magoe District in Tete province ofMozambique (adjoining Dande Safari Area) with agriculture and wildlife as the primarylanduses. The Magoe area was surveyed in October 2001 and the results are reportedseparately.

The low-lying Zambezi Valley floor, which forms the major part of the elephant range in thisregion (10,001 km2), rises abruptly to form a mountainous escarpment (7,126 km2) and eachtopographic type requires a different counting technique. As this survey was part of a censusof the whole of Zimbabwe’s elephant range, it was not possible to survey the valley floor andescarpment simultaneously. The escarpment was surveyed early in the dry season and thevalley floor later. Many parts of the valley floor have Colophospermum mopane woodlandson clay soils, which hold their leaf well into the dry season and the major part of the regionwas therefore surveyed in late September, after leaf-fall.

METHODS

Survey Area

The survey area covered 17,127 km2 and was divided into 25 strata (see Map 1 and Table 1).The area estimates of some of the strata differed slightly from those used during previoussurveys of the region (Mackie 1997, 1998, Gibson 1999, Davies 1999). The new areaestimates were used when they differed by greater than 1% from the previous estimates,because the new estimates are believed to be more accurate than area estimates usedpreviously. One stratum (Mukwiche) was modified since it was last surveyed because ofshrinking areas of wildland. Nevertheless the overall survey area covered in this survey wassimilar to that used in previous surveys of the region, except in 1999 none of the escarpmentwas surveyed and in the 1993 and 1995 surveys, the Doma Safari Area was not surveyed.

The survey area included the Parks and Wild Life Lands of Mana Pools National Park,Hurungwe, Sapi, Charara, Dande, Doma and Chewore Safari Areas; parts of the CommunalLands of Guruve, Centenary and Hurungwe Districts were also surveyed .

Survey Design

The procedures used followed those well established for aerial surveys of large Africanherbivores and livestock (Norton Griffiths, 1978) and utilised during earlier surveys of largeherbivores in Zimbabwe.

Co-ordinates of previous survey boundaries were not changed and therefore strata boundariesare the same as those used during previous surveys. The BNA files were incorporated into the

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software CARTALINX (Hagan, Eastman & Auble 1998) and the area of each stratumdetermined. These strata areas differed slightly from those used during the previous surveysand are believed to be more accurate than the area estimates used previously.

Systematic transects were positioned across each valley-floor stratum. Transects werearranged at right angles to the principal environmental feature within a stratum and transectorientation was similar to that used for previous surveys (see Map 1 and Table 1 for transectorientation). The distance between transects was calculated using Gibson’s (1992) formula.Elephant density in each stratum was predicted from the results of the two preceding surveysin order to account for the sometimes large variations in density (see Table 1 for transectspacing). Strata expected to have large numbers of elephants were sampled more intensivelythan strata expected to contain few elephants.

Surveys were designed using WWF’s custom software (AIRDESW, version dated 29/05/97).Given a stratum boundary in the form of a bna file, and the transect orientation and spacing,this program generated flight lines (the transects), with the first flight line offset from the endof the stratum by the random number entered as the “offset”. The start and end points for eachtransect were transferred as waypoints to the GPS receiver (Trimble TNL 2000A) in theaircraft prior to each flight of the day. The sensitivity of the course deviation indicator of theGPS was set to 1/8th of a nautical mile.

Flight Procedure

Transect counts

The aircraft used was a Cessna 206, the same aircraft used during other surveys of the region.It was fitted with a radar altimeter and a GPS navigator. During surveys, the aircraft wasflown at about 160 km per hour at about 300 feet above ground level. The actual height wasrecorded from the radar altimeter every 30 seconds while flying along flight paths ortransects. Navigation along transects was undertaken by the pilot, using a GPS navigator anda course deviation indicator mounted in the aircraft’s instrument panel.

The aircraft crew included a pilot (Charles Mackie), a recorder (Tawanda Gotosa or NormanMonks) seated next to the pilot, and two observers (Crispen Jakopo and Ngoni Cheweshe)who sat behind the pilot and recorder. All the crew had previous experience and training inaerial surveys. The crew could talk to one another through headsets and an intercom.

All animals seen by the observers within the strips (see section Strip Width and Calibrationbelow) were called to the recorder, who wrote down the species and the number of individualsof the group that were within the strip, and the GPS location against the time (to the nearest30 seconds) after the start of the transect. Positions were recorded from a separate GPSrecording only the axis of travel. (If required the other co-ordinate can be derived from thetransect start/end co-ordinates (see Appendix 3) using GIS software).

Block counts

For the block counts, a different technique was used. Blocks for census were defined on1:50,000 scale maps using features which were navigable from the air. Blocks to be countedwere drawn by using random numbers as map co-ordinates. Consequently, the probability of ablock being selected for survey was proportional to its area (Caughley 1977). After navigatingdirectly to a grid reference point, which marked a distinctive point in the block, the pilot(Charles Mackie) and one observer (David Chipesi) in a Piper Super Cub aircraft searched theblock until all animals within it were seen.

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Although the survey was designed to count elephants, all wild herbivores larger than impalawere counted, together with domestic cattle, sheep, goats and donkeys. Sheep and goats couldnot easily be differentiated from the air and were lumped together as “shoats”. Some largewild herbivores are not easily seen from the air and their numbers are probablyunderestimated during such a survey, but population estimates are given for them becausethese can provide useful measures or indices of abundance.

During the survey, groups of elephant bulls were differentiated from elephant cow herds,although the latter may have included some bulls. Elephant carcasses were recorded andclassified as follows:

Carcasscategory

Definition

1 Fresh: intact; white droppings of vultures visible; vegetationtrampled; fluid stain on ground around carcass visible (animallikely to have died within the last 3 months).

2 Recent: pieces of hide still attached; skeleton still partlyarticulated; no vulture droppings; no trampled vegetation; nofluid stain evident (less than 1 year old, but generally since thelast rainy season, i.e. 3 to 8 months old).

3 Old: bones scattered and bleached (probably died during orbefore the last rainy season, i.e. more than 8 months old butgenerally more than 1 year old and up to several years old).

The carcass “ratio” (Douglas-Hamilton et al. (1992)) is a percentage calculated as the numberof all elephant carcasses (i.e. age categories 1, 2 and 3) as a percentage of all elephants (i.e.live + dead). Carcasses that could not be identified as elephant carcasses, were recorded as“unidentified carcasses”.

Hippos and crocodiles were counted but because their whole habitat was not surveyed, the“estimates” of these species serve only as indices of abundance rather than estimates ofpopulation size.

Poachers’ camps, which were also recorded, were identified by the presence of meat racks(horizontal branches mounted above the ground), with or without meat, or meat hanging intrees.

Ground hornbills are large and conspicuous birds and any seen during the survey wererecorded. This species has been counted since 1997, at the request of the DNPWLM, as apossible indicator of environmental change (Mackie 1998).

The block count strata were flown between the 15 July to 8 August and transect strata wereflown during the period 6 -14 September 2001, by which time leaf-fall was advanced in thewoodlands within the survey area.

Strip Width and Calibration

Two fishing rods were attached with custom brackets to each wing strut, so that the rodspointed backwards and parallel to the ground during level flight. The distance between therods on each strut was arranged so that, when the aircraft was flying at 300 feet above groundlevel, the distance represented a strip about 150 m wide on the ground. Each rod was markedwith a small piece of tape to provide the observers with a “decision point” (Mackie, 1997).

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The strip widths were calibrated by flying the aircraft at right angles across an airstrip that hadlarge-sized numbers (from 1 to 30) arranged at 10 m intervals along the side of the airstrip.Each observer noted the largest and smallest number within his strip and the recorder notedthe aircraft’s height above the ground.

The nominal combined strip width at 300 feet was determined by averaging the combinedstrip widths, after adjusting these to 300 feet agl (see Appendix 1 for data and calculation).

Data Analysis

Population estimates and confidence intervals for individual strata were calculated withWWF’s custom software (AIRSURVW, version dated 22/05/97), which uses Jolly’s (1969)method 2 for unequal-sized sample units. Given the combined strip width when the plane wasflying at 300 feet, and the mean height for each transect, the software determined the actualcombined strip width for each transect. The area of each transect was calculated as theproduct of the actual combined strip width and the transect length (provided by AIRDESW).Search intensity (in minutes km-2) for a stratum was defined as the total time spent flying alltransects within that stratum, divided by the total area of those same transects. The greater thesearch intensity, the less the probability that observers will not observe animals that are withinthe strips.

Block counts were analysed using Jolly’s method 3 in which the probability of block selectionwas proportional to size, with large blocks have a greater chance of selection than smallerones (Caughley 1977).

Transects near the boundary of a stratum were often broken into two or more sections, withland outside the stratum between the sections. For the purposes of this analysis, data for allsections of the same transect were combined and entered into the program as one transect.This represents the most realistic approach to the calculation of n (the number of samplingunits) and the confidence interval. The value of Student’s t entered in the program to calculatethe confidence interval was t n-1 for P = 0.05 (Rohlf & Sokal 1981).

Population estimates for the entire study area and for various land units within it werecalculated as the sum of the estimates for the strata within each land unit. The confidenceinterval for the population estimate for the entire study area and for land units that comprisedmore than one stratum was calculated as:

tv . �(Sum of Variances)

where:

v = the degrees of freedom estimated by Satterthwaite’s rule (Gasaway et al. 1986).

No corrections have been applied to the estimates to compensate for any undercounting ormissed animals.

RESULTS

Sampling statistics are given in Table 1. The mean sample percentage was 13.9 % in thetransect strata and 21.5 % in the block count strata. The survey covered 212 transects in10,001 km2 and 115 blocks in 7,126 km2. The mean sampling intensity in the transect countswas 1.11 minutes/ km2 (range 0.95-1.27 minutes/km2) and in the block counts the meansampling intensity was 1.04 minutes/km2 (range 0.66 -1.51 minutes/km2). Overall, the meansampling intensity was 1.08 minutes/ km2. The estimated numbers of wildlife and livestockare given in Tables 2 to 22 by administrative units. The carcass estimates are given in Tables

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5 - 7 and Table 7 also gives the carcass ratio (for all carcasses, i.e. classes 1+2+3). Confidenceintervals (CI) and confidence limits (CL) are confidence intervals and limits at the 95 % levelof probability.

DISCUSSION

Elephants

The overall estimate of elephant number of 19,297 was higher than the 1998 estimate of17,385, but was not significantly different. The estimate for the valley floor during 2001 was14,792, compared to 10,866 in 1999.

Other wildlife

When population estimates for other species are compared between 1998 and 2001, estimatesare similar for buffalo, sable and impala, while for 10 other species, 8 estimates were upwardby small but insignificant margins.

Poaching and illegal activity

The estimated number of fresh elephant carcasses was low in most strata: only 14, all inHurungwe and Chewore. There were also few recent carcasses, with 30 estimated inHurungwe Safari Area.

The all-carcasses estimate and “ratios” were low in most strata but moderate in some: ManaPools National Park 160 (4.13 %) mostly in Mana Pools II; Hurungwe 230 (6.65%) mostly inRifa and Hurungwe; Guruve 240 (7.54%) mostly in Kadze and Chisunga. Overall, there were793 elephant carcasses (ratio 3.95%) of all categories in the region. This is less than in 1999when the ratio was 14.8% (1,378 carcasses in the Zambezi Valley floor alone), but slightlygreater than 1998 when the carcass ratio was 3.31% (596 carcasses). Few unidentifiedcarcasses and no poachers’ camps were seen.

There were large numbers of gold diggers panning for gold in the Angwa river within theDoma Safari Area and adjoining Hurungwe District. An indication of this, other than thediggers themselves, was the dirty water, as a consequence of erosion and the resulting highsilt load in the water.

Cattle were seen around the headquarters of Doma Safari Area.

REFERENCES

Caughley, G. (1977). Analysis of Vertebrate Populations Wiley and Sons Reprinted 1980.

Davies, C. (1999). Aerial survey of elephants and other large animals in the Zambezi Valleyfloor and Dande Safari area/Guruve Communal Lands: 1999. Project Paper No 73WWF Harare.

Douglas-Hamilton, I., Michelmore, F. & Inamdar, A. (1992). African Elephant Database.UNEP, Nairobi.

Gasaway, W.C., DuBois, S.D. Reed, D.J. & Harbo, S.J. (1986). Estimating moose populationparameters from aerial surveys. Biological Papers of the University of Alaska 22. 108pp.

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Gibson, D. (1992). Formulae for aerial survey analysis. In: Elephant management inZimbabwe. Second edition. Eds Martin, R.B., Craig, G.C., Booth, V.R. & Conybeare,A.M.G. pp. 67-68. DNPWLM, Harare.

Gibson, D. (1999). Aerial survey of elephants and other animals in NorthwesternMatabeleland and Zambezi Valley and Escarpment 1998. Project Paper No 70 WWFHarare.

Hagan, J.E., Eastman J.R. & Auble, J. (1998). Cartalinx: the spatial data builder. User’sguide. Clark Labs, Clark University, Worcester, MA.

Jolly, G.M. (1969). Sampling methods for aerial censuses of wildlife populations. E. Afr.Agric. For. J. 34: 46-49.

Mackie, C.S. (1997). Aerial survey of elephants and other large herbivores in the Sebungweand Dande Communal Lands: 1997. WWF Project Paper No 56, Harare

Mackie, C.S. (1998). Aerial census of elephant and other large herbivores in the SebungweRegion and Dande Communal Lands National Park, Zimbabwe: 1997. WWF ProjectReport No. 56, Harare.

Norton Griffiths, M. (1978). Counting Animals. Second edition. AWLF, Nairobi.

Rohlf, F.J. & Sokal, R.R. (1981). Statistical Tables. Second edition. W.H. Freeman & Co.,San Francisco.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The author is grateful to the following:

• The Director of the Department of National Parks and Wild Life Management, for invitingthe survey.

• Mr Stix Chimuti for his role in co-ordinating the Department of National Parks and WildLife Management personnel.

• The crew from the Department of National Parks and Wild Life Management, namelyTawanda Gotosa and Norman Monks (recorders), Crispen Jakopo and Ngoni Cheweshe(observers) and David Chipesi (block count recorder and observer).

• Mr W. Bedford and his staff at Murara camp for providing food and accommodation forthe crew during the block counts and survey of the eastern Zambezi Valley.

• Mr Vicus Coetzee for undertaking overland shipment of fuel for the survey.

• Dr Ivan Bond for co-ordinating WWF’s role in the survey.

• Mr Kevin Dunham for his part in streamlining final production of the report and provisionof maps.

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Table 1. Sampling statistics for the survey of the Zambezi Valley: 2001.

Flying times (hours)Stratum name Area(km2)

Transectspacing

(km)

Transectorientation

(°)

Numberof

transects(= n)

Percentof

stratumsampled

Time anddate sampled

Transects Stratum Total

Searchintensity(minutesper km2)

Rifa 619 2.6 90 14 12.3 am 7.9 1.58 1.92 2.93 1.25Hurungwe 1234 2.3 0 24 13.9 pm 7.9/am 8.9 3.28 3.65 4.73 1.15Mana I 325 1.5 0 33 21.5 am,pm 8.9 1.48 1.95 2.45 1.27Mana II 1361 2.5 90 17 12.7 am,pm 9.9 3.08 2.35 4.38 1.07Sapi South 782 2.5 90 16 12.9 pm 11.9 1.83 2.15 2.62 1.09Sapi North 321 1.5 0 23 21.2 am 9.9 1.22 1.75 2.08 1.07Chewore I 840 2.1 90 18 14.6 am/pm 10.9 2.02 2.50 3.72 0.99Chewore III 897 1.9 90 20 18.0 am 11.9 2.55 3.32 4.05 0.95Dande 981 2.1 0 18 14.4 am 13.9 2.43 2.95 3.18 1.03Chapoto 267 2.4 90 11 15.2 am 14.9 0.73 0.93 1.25 1.08Chisunga 768 6.5 90 5 4.5 pm 13.9 0.70 1.10 1.20 1.22Kanyurira 227 2.5 90 6 12.7 pm 13.9 0.57 0.73 0.85 1.18Kadze 1379 4.8 90 7 6.7 am 14.9 1.63 2.13 2.60 1.06Kanyurira HL 127 4 38.2 pm 3.8/am 4.8 1.00 1.05 1.95 1.24Chewore II 1054 12 13.0 am 8.8

am/pm 9/82.72 3.20 7.10 1.19

Chewore IV 610 17 22.6 am 2.8/3.8 3.48 3.90 4.80 1.51Charara 726 *9 17.6 am 16.7 2.55 3.50 4.60 1.20Doma 975 15 16.0 pm 1.8/am 4.8 2.20 2.40 4.00 0.86Hurungwe I 674 8 13.2 am 17.7 1.60 2.05 4.80 1.08Hurungwe II 527 10 27.2 am 19.7 2.22 2.75 4.30 0.93Charara South 944 15 24.1 am 15.7 2.50 3.20 4.60 0.66Mana Pools III 501 7 16.5 am/pm 18.7 1.15 2.30 3.40 0.83Mavuradonha HD 273 6 29.4 pm 7.8/pm 8.8 1.42 1.55 3.60 1.06Mavuradonha LD 378 *4 15.0 pm 8.8 0.73 1.50 2.40 0.77Mukwiche 337 8 24.7 pm 1.8/am 2.8 1.60 2.00 2.90 1.15Total/mean 17127 327 15.48 ** 46.27 56.83 84.49 1.08

* denotes one block randomly selected twice and thus was included twice in the analysis; ** weighted mean

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Rifa

Hurungwe IHurungwe II

Charara

Hurungwe

Mana I

Mana II

Sapi N

Sapi S

Chewore I

Chewore II

Chewore III

Chapota

Dande

KadzeChisunga

Doma MWA Low

MWA Low

MWA High

Charara S

Man

a III

Chewore IV

Kanyurira HLMukwichi

Kanyurira

29.0

30.0

31.0

-16.5

-16.0

NorthGrid

Map 1. The survey area in the Zambezi Valley, Zimbabwe.

Strata names, strata boundaries (bold lines), transects (thin, parallel lines) and blocks (black areas) are shown

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Table 2. Population estimates and statistics for Elephant Bulls and Cows in the ZambeziValley

Stratum Estimate No.Seen

Variance % CI LowerCL

UpperCL

Density(km-2)

Parks and Wildlife Estate

National ParksMana Pools I 1000 215 42119 41.9 581 1419 3.08Mana Pools II 2196 280 107820 31.7 1499 2892 1.61Mana Pools III 512 84 55909 112.9 0 1091 1.02Subtotals 3708 579 205847 24.9 2783 4632 1.70

Safari Areas

Hurungwe Safari AreaRifa 405 50 9633 52.4 193 617 0.65Hurungwe 2756 382 301195 41.2 1620 3891 2.23Hurungwe I 332 50 37279 137.4 0 789 0.49Hurungwe II 252 57 10833 93.3 17 488 0.48Subtotals 3745 539 358941 32.6 2523 4966 1.23

Sapi Safari AreaSapi South 1256 162 83823 49.1 639 1873 1.61Sapi North 735 156 27407 46.7 391 1078 2.29Subtotals 1991 318 111229 34.6 1302 2679 1.80

Chewore Safari AreaChewore I 1858 271 102248 36.3 1183 2533 2.21Chewore II 1673 224 129489 47.3 881 2465 1.59Chewore III 1630 293 88846 38.3 1007 2254 1.82Chewore IV 580 171 29131 62.3 219 942 0.95Subtotals 5741 959 349714 20.6 4559 6924 1.69

Charara Safari AreaCharara 435 73 33350 96.8 14 856 0.60Charara South 155 44 7696 121.3 0 343 0.16Subtotals 590 117 41046 75.6 144 1036 0.35

Doma Safari AreaDoma 336 54 38156 124.8 0 755 0.34

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UpperCL

Density(km-2)

Communal Lands

Guruve DistrictDande 2059 296 204310 46.3 1105 3013 2.10Chapoto 59 9 2104 173.1 0 161 0.22Chisunga 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00Kadze 697 47 279513 185.6 0 1991 0.51Kanyurira 102 13 2839 133.9 0 239 0.45Kanyurira HL 29 10 848 318.2 0 122 0.23Subtotals 2946 375 489615 50.6 1455 4437 0.79

Other DistrictsMavuradonha HD 13 5 179 257.1 0 48 0.05Mavuradonha LD 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00Mukwiche 228 54 22860 156.5 0 586 0.68Subtotals 241 59 23039 149.0 0 600 0.24

Totals 19297 3000 1617587 13.1 16776 21819 1.13

0

0.01 - 0.25

0.26 - 0.99

1 - 1.99

2 - 3.5

Elephant density (per sq. km)

Map 2. Distribution of Elephants in the Zambezi Valley

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Table 3. Population estimates and statistics for Elephant Bulls in the Zambezi Valley

Stratum Estimate No. Seen


UpperCL

Density(km-2)


National ParksMana I 135 29 2329 73.1 36 233 0.42Mana II 447 57 9785 46.9 237 657 0.33Mana III 28 4 292 149.5 0 70 0.06Subtotals 610 90 12406 37.7 380 840 0.28

Safari Areas




Charara Safari AreaCharara 23 4 171 129.0 0 53 0.03Charara S 65 15 1275 118.5 0 141 0.07Subtotals 88 19 1446 91.2 8 168 0.05


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Stratum Estimate No. Seen


UpperCL

Density(km-2)

Communal Lands



Totals 2062 303 57077 23.4 1579 2546 0.12

0

0.01 - 0.09

0.1 - 0.25

0.26 - 0.4

0.41 - 0.7

Elephant bull density (per sq. km)

Map 3. Distribution of Elephant Bulls in the Zambezi Valley

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Table 4. Population estimates and statistics for Elephant Cows in the Zambezi Valley



UpperCL

Density(km-2)



Safari Areas






18



UpperCL

Density(km-2)

Communal Lands



Totals 17237 2697 1551404 14.3 14769 19706 1.01

0

0.01 - 0.5

0.51 - 0.99

1 - 1.99

2 - 2.99

Elephant cow density (per sq. km)

Map 4. Distribution of Elephant Cows in the Zambezi Valley

19

Table 5. Population estimates and statistics for Elephant Carcasses 1 in the Zambezi Valley



UpperCL

Density(km-2)



Safari Areas


Sapi Safari AreaSapi South 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00Sapi North 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00Subtotal 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00




Communal Lands


20



UpperCL

Density(km-2)


Totals 14 2 95 140.3 0 34 0.001

21

Table 6. Population estimates and statistics for Elephant Carcasses 2 in the Zambezi Valley



UpperCL

Density(km-2)



Safari Areas


Sapi Safari AreaSapi South 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00Sapi North 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00Subtotal 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00




22



UpperCL

Density(km-2)

Communal Lands



Totals 30 4 273 113.4 0 63 0.002

23

Table 7. Population estimates and statistics for Elephant Carcasses 3 and carcass ratios (forall carcasses) in the Zambezi Valley



UpperCL

Density(km-2)

CarcassRatio


National ParksMana I 19 4 65 88.3 2 35 0.06 1.83Mana II 141 18 1532 58.8 58 224 0.10 6.04Mana III 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.00Subtotals 160 22 1597 52.8 75 244 0.07 4.13

Safari Areas

Hurungwe Safari AreaRifa 57 7 536 88.3 7 107 0.09 14.09Hurungwe 166 23 949 38.4 102 230 0.13 6.67Hurungwe I 7 1 47 236.5 0 23 0.01 2.06Hurungwe II 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.00Subtotals 230 31 1532 34.1 151 308 0.08 5.78

Sapi Safari AreaSapi South 39 5 271 90.6 4 74 0.05 2.99Sapi North 9 2 38 136.3 0 22 0.03 1.27Subtotals 48 7 310 76.5 11 85 0.04 2.36

Chewore Safari AreaChewore I 55 8 414 78.3 12 98 0.07 3.40Chewore II 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.00Chewore III 11 2 37 115.1 0 24 0.01 0.68Chewore IV 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.00Subtotals 66 10 452 63.1 24 108 0.02 1.14

Charara Safari AreaCharara 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.00Charara South 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.00Subtotals 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.00

Doma Safari AreaDoma 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.00

24



UpperCL

Density(km-2)

CarcassRatio

Communal Lands

Guruve DistrictDande 42 6 269 83.0 7 76 0.04 1.99Chapoto 7 1 56 254.3 0 23 0.03 10.00Chisunga 88 4 1803 133.7 0 206 0.12 100.00Kadze 104 7 3681 143.0 0 252 0.08 12.96Kanyurira 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.00Kanyurira HL 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.00Subtotals 240 18 5809 70.7 70 410 0.06 7.54

Other DistrictsMavuradonha HD 5 1 26 257.1 0 18 0.02 27.78Mavuradonha LD 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00Mukwiche 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.00Subtotals 5 1 26 262.2 0 18 0.01 2.03

Totals 749 89 9725 27.0 547 951 0.04 3.74

25

Table 8. Population estimates and statistics for Unidentified Carcasses in the ZambeziValley



UpperCL

Density(km-2)



Safari Areas






26



UpperCL

Density(km-2)

Communal Lands



Totals 575 76 7666 27.0 547 951 0.03

27

Table 9. Population estimates and statistics for Buffalo in the Zambezi Valley



UpperCL

Density(km-2)



Safari Areas






28



UpperCL

Density(km-2)

Communal Lands

Guruve DistrictDande 3374 485 1804664 84.0 539 6208 3.44Chapoto 663 101 204483 152.0 0 1670 2.48Chisunga 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00Kadze 1053 71 1168921 251.3 0 3698 0.76Kanyurira 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00Kanyurira HL 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00Subtotal 5089 657 3178068 70.6 1497 8681 1.36


Totals 14909 2285 6876872 34.9 9700 20118 0.87

0

0.01 - 1

1.01 - 2

2.01 - 3

> 3

Buffalo density (per sq. km)

Map 5. Distribution of Buffalo in the Zambezi Valley

29

Table 10. Population estimates and statistics for Sable in the Zambezi Valley



UpperCL

Density(km-2)



Safari Areas






30



UpperCL

Density(km-2)

Communal Lands



Totals 656 162 35327 58.8 270 1041 0.04

0

0.01 - 0.05

0.06 - 0.1

0.11 - 0.15

0.16 - 0.65

Sable density (per sq. km)

Map 6. Distribution of Sable in the Zambezi Valley

31

Table 11. Population estimates and statistics for Waterbuck in the Zambezi Valley



UpperCL

Density(km-2)



Safari Areas






Communal Lands


32



UpperCL

Density(km-2)


Totals 777 156 17865 34.3 511 1043 0.05

0

0.01 - 0.1

0.11 - 0.2

0.21 - 0.3

0.31 - 1.1

Waterbuck density (per sq. km)

Map 7. Distribution of Waterbuck in the Zambezi Valley

33

Table 12. Population estimates and statistics for Kudu in the Zambezi Valley



UpperCL

Density(km-2)



Safari Areas






Communal Lands


34



UpperCL

Density(km-2)


Totals 1823 282 41454 22.1 1420 2227 0.11

0

0.01 - 0.1

0.11 - 0.2

0.21 - 0.3

0.31 - 0.6

Kudu density (per sq. km)

Map 8. Distribution of Kudu in the Zambezi Valley

35

Table 13. Population estimates and statistics for Eland in the Zambezi Valley



UpperCL

Density(km-2)



Safari Areas






Communal Lands

Guruve DistrictDande 104 15 9350 195.5 0 308 0.11Chapoto 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00Kadze 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00Chisunga 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00Kanyurira 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00Kanyurira HL 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00Subtotals 104 15 9350 181.6 0 294 0.03

36



UpperCL

Density(km-2)


Totals 805 155 65287 63.6 293 1316 0.05

0

0.01 - 0.05

0.06 - 0.10

0.11 - 0.25

0.26 - 2

Eland density (per sq. km)

Map 9. Distribution of Eland in the Zambezi Valley

37

Table 14. Population estimates and statistics for Roan in the Zambezi Valley


Variance % CL LowerCL

UpperCL

Density(km-2)



Safari Areas






Communal Lands


38



UpperCL

Density(km-2)


Totals 115 21 5495 134.6 0 270 0.01

0

0.01 - 0.05

0.06 - 0.1

0.11 - 0.2

0.21 - 0.3

Roan density (per sq. km)

Map 10. Distribution of Roan in the Zambezi Valley

39

Table 15. Population estimates and statistics for Zebra in the Zambezi Valley



UpperCL

Density(km-2)



Safari Areas






Communal Lands

Guruve DistrictDande 21 3 395 200.9 0 63 0.02Chapoto 26 4 854 248.0 0 91 0.10Kadze 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00Chisunga 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00Kanyurira 31 4 338 150.2 0 79 0.14Kanyurira HL 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00Subtotals 79 11 1586 100.4 0 158 0.02

40



UpperCL

Density(km-2)


Totals 1672 262 57839 28.7 1192 2152 0.10

0

0.01 - 0.1

0.11 - 0.2

0.21 - 0.5

0.51 - 1

Zebra density (per sq. km)

Map 11. Distribution of Zebra in the Zambezi Valley

41

Table 16. Population estimates and statistics for Impala in the Zambezi Valley



UpperCL

Density(km-2)



Safari Areas

Hurungwe Safari AreaRifa 210 26 8160 92.7 15 406 0.34Hurungwe 1428 198 313480 81.1 270 2587 1.16Hurungwe I 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00Hurungwe II 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00Subtotal 1639 224 321640 71.4 468 2809 0.54





Communal Lands


42



UpperCL

Density(km-2)


Totals 10117 1717 1676536 25.5 7538 12697 0.59

0

0.01 - 0.5

0.51 - 1

1.01 - 2

2.01 - 11

Impala density (per sq. km)

Map 12. Distribution of Impala in the Zambezi Valley

43

Table 17. Population estimates and statistics for Hippo in the Zambezi Valley



UpperCL

Density(km-2)



Safari Areas






Communal Lands


44



UpperCL

Density(km-2)


Totals 3169 593 214937 29.2 2244 4094 0.19

45

Table 18. Population estimates and statistics for Crocodile in the Zambezi Valley



UpperCL

Density(km-2)



Safari Areas






Communal Lands


46



UpperCL

Density(km-2)


Totals 905 171 24209 34.3 595 1216 0.05

47

Table 19. Population estimates and statistics for Cattle in the Zambezi Valley



UpperCL

Density(km-2)



Safari Areas






Communal Lands


48



UpperCL

Density(km-2)


Totals 8148 532 3702457 54.5 3710 12585 0.48

0

0.01 - 1

1.01 - 2

2.01 - 4

4.01 - 6

Cattle density (per sq. km)

Map 13. Distribution of Cattle in the Zambezi Valley

49

Table 20. Population estimates and statistics for Sheep and Goats in the Zambezi Valley



UpperCL

Density(km-2)



Safari Areas






50



UpperCL

Density(km-2)

Communal Lands



Totals 13643 805 10519028 53.8 6306 20979 0.80

0

0.01 - 1

1.01 - 5

5.01 - 10

Sheep and goat density (per sq. km)

Map 14. Distribution of Sheep and goats in the Zambezi Valley

51

Table 21. Population estimates and statistics for Donkeys in the Zambezi Valley



UpperCL

Density(km-2)



Safari Areas






Communal Lands


52



UpperCL

Density(km-2)


Totals 44 3 1067 179.7 0 124 0.01

53

Appendix 1. Calibration to determine strip width

Strip width (in meters) for one observer = 10 * (difference + 1).Combined strip width (in meters) = (Difference left + Difference right + 2).

Left Observer:C. Jakopo

Right Observer:N. Cheweshe

Runno.

Outer Inner Difference+1

Outer Inner Difference+ 1

Heightagl (ft)

CombinedStrip

Width (m)

1 26 12 15 20 6 15 300 300.02 27 11 17 21 6 16 300 330.03 26 11 16 22 8 15 300 310.04 27 12 16 18 3 16 300 320.05 27 13 15 22 6 17 300 320.06 26 11 16 23 8 16 300 320.07 29 14 16 24 7 18 300 340.08 22 9 14 24 9 16 300 300.09 25 10 16 21 7 15 300 310.010 24 9 16 27 11 17 300 330.011 29 13 17 24 9 16 300 330.012 29 12 18 21 5 17 300 350.013 27 12 16 24 9 16 300 320.014 24 9 16 25 10 16 300 320.015 25 10 16 26 12 15 300 310.016 25 9 17 26 11 16 300 330.017 24 10 15 23 8 16 300 310.018 21 7 15 25 9 17 300 320.019 22 8 15 24 8 17 250 266.720 20 7 14 17 4 14 250 233.321 19 8 12 22 7 16 250 233.322 27 13 15 21 6 16 300 310.023 25 13 13 22 7 16 300 290.024 22 7 16 30 14 17 300 330.025 25 12 14 27 12 16 300 300.026 29 15 15 21 5 17 300 320.027 27 16 12 19 3 17 300 290.028 24 9 14 21 6 16 300 300.029 24 7 18 25 9 17 300 350.030 30 17 14 20 4 17 300 310.031 24 11 14 25 9 17 300 310.032 29 14 16 21 7 15 320 330.733 25 11 15 22 6 17 300 320.034 21 7 15 27 12 16 300 310.035 27 14 14 23 8 16 300 300.0

Mean 296.3 310.7

Mean calibrated strip width (meters) at 300 feet = 314.6

54

Appendix 2. Aerial Survey Flight Times

Date Time Flight DutyTake Off Land time (hours)

6/9/01 11.53 12.17 1.5 Position Mana Pools6/9/01 16.25 16.51 0.4 Calibration 16/9/01 17.05 17.3 0.4 Calibration 27/9/01 7.49 10.45 2.9 Rifa7/9/01 15.26 17.1 1.7 Hurungwe8/9/01 7.2 10.2 3 Hurungwe8/9/01 14.48 16.35 1.7 Mana Pools 19/9/01 7.15 10.29 3.2 Mana Pools 29/9/01 14.37 16.25 1.7 Mana Pools 210/9/01 6.54 8.59 2.9 Sapi North10/9/01 9.2 10.48 1.4 Chewore 110/9/01 14.4 16.55 2.2 Chewore 111/9/01 6.47 10.5 4 Chewore 311/9/01 14.35 17.12 2.5 Sapi South12/9/01 10.33 11 0.5 Mana-Murara13/9/01 6.49 10 3.2 Murare-Dande13/9/01 15.05 16.45 1.7 Kanyurira-Chusunga14/9/01 6.54 9.3 2.6 Kadze-Pedza Pasi14/9/01 10.33 11.31 0.9 Pedza Pasi-Murara14/9/01 14.3 16.28 2 Marara-Magoe-Marara15/9/01 7 9.34 2.5 Marara-Jena-sumay15/9/01 10.28 10.4 0.2 Sango-Jena-Murara15/9/01 14.65 15.42 0.8 Mana-Magoe17/9/01 14 15.3 1.5 Murara-C.Prince

55

Appendix 3. Transect start and end points.

RifaNumber of transects : 14Transect Bearing : 90.00 DegreesTransect Spacing : 2.60 km

Transect Start Lat Start Lon Finish Lat Finish Lon Length1 16.360151 28.840763 16.360151 28.878696 4.0514232 16.33675 28.906345 16.33675 28.842825 6.7842183 16.313351 28.822651 16.313351 28.940235 12.5584334 16.289949 28.960625 16.289949 28.830921 13.8528195 16.26655 28.851088 16.26655 28.988857 14.7143166 16.243151 29.019501 16.243151 28.8563 17.4304077 16.219749 28.83519 16.219749 29.056206 23.6053238 16.19635 29.126566 16.19635 28.840836 30.5170659 16.172951 28.840031 16.172951 29.140148 32.05366510 16.149549 29.108974 16.149549 28.849714 27.68995111 16.12615 28.861776 16.12615 29.026779 17.62291512 16.102751 28.997417 16.102751 28.849375 15.81150913 16.07935 28.853264 16.07935 28.970879 12.56169214 16.05595 28.914352 16.05595 28.844833 7.424892

HurungweNumber of transects : 24Transect Bearing : 0.00 DegreesTransect Spacing : 2.30 km

Transect Start Lat Start Lon Finish Lat Finish Lon Length1 16.052759 29.375574 16.032774 29.375574 2.2205752 16.016087 29.354071 16.073505 29.354071 6.3798633 16.103043 29.332567 16.000956 29.332567 11.3429914 15.982485 29.311066 16.159851 29.311066 19.7073425 16.165638 29.289562 15.964462 29.289562 22.3528326 15.938792 29.268059 16.166855 29.268059 25.3402677 16.170664 29.246557 15.907855 29.246557 29.2009498 15.877413 29.225054 16.17481 29.225054 33.0441469 16.183359 29.203552 15.866386 29.203552 35.21915710 15.850427 29.182049 16.188528 29.182049 37.56678311 16.186735 29.160545 15.840821 29.160545 38.43483812 15.835863 29.139044 16.171457 29.139044 37.28820513 16.154167 29.11754 15.845662 29.11754 34.27830614 15.860176 29.096037 16.146828 29.096037 31.85014715 16.142303 29.074535 15.873988 29.074535 29.81278316 15.894526 29.053032 16.137779 29.053032 27.02805717 16.130932 29.03153 15.929528 29.03153 22.37815718 15.940796 29.010027 16.111473 29.010027 18.96411319 16.095003 28.988523 15.937934 28.988523 17.45211720 15.94 28.967022 16.073397 28.967022 14.82188521 16.067577 28.945518 15.939912 28.945518 14.18504422 15.94107 28.924015 16.064165 28.924015 13.67726523 16.045887 28.902514 15.966753 28.902514 8.79265624 16.004942 28.88101 16.038706 28.88101 3.751539

56

Mana Pools INumber of transects : 34Transect Bearing : 0.00 DegreesTransect Spacing : 1.50 km

Transect Start Lat Start Lon Finish Lat Finish Lon Length1 15.646966 29.583855 15.6444 29.583855 0.2851482 15.64125 29.569847 15.67739 29.569847 4.0156013 15.724504 29.569847 15.760025 29.569847 3.9467244 15.772371 29.555838 15.64311 29.555838 14.3623215 15.648906 29.54183 15.77573 29.54183 14.0915846 15.770988 29.527822 15.662952 29.527822 12.0039937 15.678784 29.513813 15.762259 29.513813 9.2750038 15.760484 29.499805 15.68501 29.499805 8.3859689 15.68571 29.485798 15.761135 29.485798 8.38056410 15.761787 29.47179 15.68687 29.47179 8.32419111 15.68875 29.457781 15.762439 29.457781 8.18760412 15.766231 29.443773 15.68875 29.443773 8.60891513 15.689963 29.429766 15.771746 29.429766 9.08691814 15.779482 29.415758 15.697343 29.415758 9.12654815 15.710376 29.401749 15.782205 29.401749 7.98097416 15.774227 29.387741 15.712049 29.387741 6.90862217 15.71 29.373734 15.767385 29.373734 6.37604818 15.76974 29.359726 15.710893 29.359726 6.53859719 15.717265 29.345716 15.774333 29.345716 6.34086820 15.778926 29.331709 15.727698 29.331709 5.69194621 15.731166 29.317701 15.783519 29.317701 5.81698422 15.788111 29.303692 15.736259 29.303692 5.76124723 15.745713 29.289684 15.792704 29.289684 5.2211524 15.797297 29.275677 15.754189 29.275677 4.78966625 15.759875 29.261669 15.801889 29.261669 4.66823126 15.806482 29.24766 15.763027 29.24766 4.82834227 15.76375 29.233652 15.811075 29.233652 5.25834328 15.815667 29.219645 15.76792 29.219645 5.30517929 15.780164 29.205637 15.82026 29.205637 4.45513830 15.824853 29.191628 15.793944 29.191628 3.43428431 15.803335 29.17762 15.829446 29.17762 2.9011832 15.841552 29.163612 15.810899 29.163612 3.40588533 15.820095 29.149603 15.838243 29.149603 2.01648934 15.832539 29.135595 15.830279 29.135595 0.251028

Mana Pools IINumber of transects : 20Transect Bearing : 90.00 DegreesTransect Spacing : 2.50 km

Transect Start Lat Start Lon Finish Lat Finish Lon Length1 16.137501 29.320255 16.137501 29.333599 1.42762 16.137501 29.36343 16.137501 29.574076 22.5361223 16.115 29.58519 16.115 29.327034 27.6190394 16.092501 29.33843 16.092501 29.613304 29.407625 16.07 29.630556 16.07 29.3571 29.2560046 16.047501 29.382715 16.047501 29.667246 30.4407737 16.025 29.67359 16.025 29.655556 1.929382

57

Transect Start Lat Start Lon Finish Lat Finish Lon Length8 16.025 29.569197 16.025 29.362141 22.1520829 16.002501 29.335808 16.002501 29.56963 25.01564810 15.98 29.578705 15.98 29.303701 29.42149611 15.9575 29.284981 15.9575 29.580444 31.61044212 15.935 29.5875 15.935 29.262039 34.81968513 15.9125 29.250927 15.9125 29.582962 35.52307814 15.89 29.577454 15.89 29.233332 36.81620315 15.8675 29.20417 15.8675 29.57955 40.16032916 15.845 29.585474 15.845 29.171295 44.31130617 15.8225 29.198805 15.8225 29.593054 42.17908918 15.8 29.602777 15.8 29.267431 35.87732519 15.7775 29.336058 15.7775 29.392591 6.04832220 15.7775 29.419346 15.7775 29.583334 17.54442

Sapi NorthNumber of transects : 24Transect Bearing : 0.00 DegreesTransect Spacing : 1.50 km

Transect Start Lat Start Lon Finish Lat Finish Lon Length1 15.622584 29.878174 15.613096 29.878174 1.0542332 15.611492 29.864166 15.643826 29.864166 3.5926993 15.677353 29.864166 15.686415 29.864166 1.0068674 15.698187 29.850157 15.609841 29.850157 9.816165 15.60875 29.836147 15.70876 29.836147 11.1122026 15.705352 29.822138 15.60875 29.822138 10.7334887 15.609408 29.80813 15.70625 29.80813 10.7601918 15.709901 29.794121 15.610535 29.794121 11.0406779 15.613974 29.780111 15.708788 29.780111 10.53491210 15.712347 29.766102 15.618902 29.766102 10.38274811 15.625932 29.752094 15.716072 29.752094 10.01558412 15.719798 29.738085 15.63274 29.738085 9.67310913 15.638859 29.724075 15.723523 29.724075 9.4071414 15.726951 29.710066 15.643307 29.710066 9.29375915 15.645534 29.696056 15.730184 29.696056 9.40555116 15.733417 29.682049 15.649102 29.682049 9.36825117 15.652671 29.668039 15.73665 29.668039 9.33095218 15.739882 29.65403 15.65624 29.65403 9.29365319 15.659168 29.64002 15.743115 29.64002 9.32745520 15.746348 29.626013 15.66125 29.626013 9.45535421 15.66125 29.612003 15.749581 29.612003 9.8145722 15.754609 29.597994 15.655373 29.597994 11.02626523 15.646774 29.583984 15.757798 29.583984 12.33597724 15.724524 29.569977 15.676952 29.569977 5.285682

Sapi SouthNumber of transects : 18Transect Bearing : 90.00 DegreesTransect Spacing : 2.50 km

Transect Start Lat Start Lon Finish Lat Finish Lon Length1 16.0501 29.725506 16.0501 29.753633 3.009054

58

Transect Start Lat Start Lon Finish Lat Finish Lon Length2 16.027599 29.775 16.027599 29.70652 7.3258333 16.027599 29.649776 16.027599 29.565649 8.9998194 16.0051 29.568859 16.0051 29.775 22.0525875 15.9826 29.766741 15.9826 29.578222 20.1674146 15.9601 29.580324 15.9601 29.768904 20.1739447 15.9376 29.774647 15.9376 29.587339 20.0378458 15.9151 29.583828 15.9151 29.780388 21.0276689 15.8926 29.786131 15.8926 29.577906 22.27560910 15.8701 29.578865 15.8701 29.791874 22.78735411 15.8476 29.797892 15.8476 29.584789 22.79735212 15.8251 29.590714 15.8251 29.807146 23.15361513 15.8026 29.817539 15.8026 29.601814 23.07791414 15.7801 29.585558 15.7801 29.839598 27.17677315 15.7576 29.83074 15.7576 29.590082 25.74519216 15.7576 29.583347 15.7576 29.575962 0.79006317 15.7351 29.674755 15.7351 29.829403 16.5439818 15.7126 29.838741 15.7126 29.765152 7.87247

Chewore INumber of transects : 20Transect Bearing : 90.00 DegreesTransect Spacing : 2.10 km

Transect Start Lat Start Lon Finish Lat Finish Lon Length1 15.96795 29.867722 15.96795 29.766901 10.7910392 15.94905 29.771725 15.94905 29.878006 11.3755133 15.93015 29.890095 15.93015 29.776548 12.1531114 15.91125 29.78137 15.91125 29.89782 12.4638245 15.89235 29.963533 15.89235 29.933283 3.2377816 15.89235 29.909374 15.89235 29.786194 13.1842617 15.87345 29.791018 15.87345 29.988379 21.123978 15.85455 30.013502 15.85455 29.795963 23.2836489 15.835649 29.804028 15.835649 30.046513 25.95369410 15.81675 30.067667 15.81675 29.808842 27.70262711 15.79785 29.82752 15.79785 30.14484 33.96342612 15.77895 30.132044 15.77895 29.839334 31.32930913 15.76005 29.83062 15.76005 30.115049 30.44310414 15.74115 30.095188 15.74115 29.826893 28.7162215 15.72225 29.834736 15.72225 30.071266 25.31634516 15.70335 30.050526 15.70335 29.845272 21.96873317 15.68445 29.86482 15.68445 30.041235 18.88202118 15.66555 30.039469 15.66555 29.856211 19.61450319 15.646649 29.858458 15.646649 30.045067 19.9731920 15.627749 29.941174 15.627749 29.87466 7.119036

Chewore IIINumber of transects : 22Transect Bearing : 90.00 DegreesTransect Spacing : 1.90 km

Transect Start Lat Start Lon Finish Lat Finish Lon Length1 16.30175 30.097155 16.30175 30.053886 4.623949

59

Transect Start Lat Start Lon Finish Lat Finish Lon Length2 16.284649 30.048805 16.284649 30.102522 5.7405453 16.26755 30.098166 16.26755 30.039865 6.2303564 16.25045 29.986759 16.25045 30.095665 11.638455 16.233349 30.096197 16.233349 29.955313 15.0559126 16.216249 29.95278 16.216249 30.108606 16.6527387 16.19915 30.124271 16.19915 29.89592 24.403288 16.182049 29.860693 16.182049 30.141434 30.0019579 16.164949 30.113873 16.164949 29.809095 32.57065910 16.14785 29.800505 16.14785 30.107538 32.81179411 16.130749 30.103174 16.130749 29.786259 33.86785212 16.130749 29.772778 16.130749 29.768513 0.4557713 16.113649 29.743868 16.113649 30.089241 36.90903814 16.09655 30.08301 16.09655 29.732044 37.50667615 16.079449 29.697615 16.079449 30.090202 41.95471716 16.062349 30.10202 16.062349 29.707241 42.18892117 16.04525 29.700203 16.04525 29.719372 2.0485218 16.04525 29.755392 16.04525 30.109524 37.84503919 16.028149 30.013968 16.028149 29.775 25.53781420 16.028149 29.706724 16.028149 29.697901 0.94293121 16.011049 29.772274 16.011049 29.91604 15.36390322 15.993949 29.881239 15.993949 29.770111 11.875915

ChapotoNumber of transects : 12Transect Bearing : 90.00 DegreesTransect Spacing : 2.40 km

Transect Start Lat Start Lon Finish Lat Finish Lon Length1 15.838736 30.265724 15.838736 30.40303 14.6947642 15.817136 30.416195 15.817136 30.252905 17.4755993 15.795536 30.27561 15.795536 30.416199 15.0460684 15.773936 30.416203 15.773936 30.298315 12.6165375 15.752336 30.32102 15.752336 30.416208 10.187216 15.730736 30.416212 15.730736 30.317324 10.5832197 15.709136 30.296537 15.709136 30.416216 12.8082138 15.687535 30.416222 15.687535 30.280804 14.4926779 15.665936 30.279835 15.665936 30.416225 14.59678310 15.644336 30.416231 15.644336 30.35923 6.10036411 15.644336 30.307127 15.644336 30.278866 3.02456412 15.622736 30.404711 15.622736 30.416235 1.233341

Dande SANumber of transects : 20Transect Bearing : 0.00 DegreesTransect Spacing : 2.10 km

Transect Start Lat Start Lon Finish Lat Finish Lon Length1 16.032654 30.407347 15.836069 30.407347 21.8427232 15.840715 30.387707 16.057812 30.387707 24.121793 16.050226 30.368067 15.843925 30.368067 22.9223874 15.848057 30.348427 16.053286 30.348427 22.8031785 16.075962 30.328789 15.849136 30.328789 25.202832

60

Transect Start Lat Start Lon Finish Lat Finish Lon Length6 15.84576 30.309149 16.106895 30.309149 29.0149827 16.135111 30.289509 15.848184 30.289509 31.8807718 15.841205 30.269869 16.136179 30.269869 32.7748929 16.151342 30.250229 15.824726 30.250229 36.29066210 15.84381 30.230589 16.153811 30.230589 34.44445711 16.160618 30.210949 15.86245 30.210949 33.12976512 15.891123 30.191309 16.158943 30.191309 29.75778813 16.16181 30.171669 15.903035 30.171669 28.75272214 15.920563 30.152029 16.160166 30.152029 26.62253415 16.165915 30.132391 15.944769 30.132391 24.57171216 15.964669 30.112751 16.15889 30.112751 21.58003917 16.12093 30.093111 16.075241 30.093111 5.07650918 16.037016 30.093111 15.975065 30.093111 6.88340219 15.984727 30.073471 16.035416 30.073471 5.63207720 16.00754 30.053831 15.994792 30.053831 1.416417

ChisungaNumber of transects : 6Transect Bearing : 90.00 DegreesTransect Spacing : 6.50 km

Transect Start Lat Start Lon Finish Lat Finish Lon Length1 16.284466 30.305809 16.284466 30.381248 8.0588772 16.225965 30.474792 16.225965 30.264111 22.5062563 16.167465 30.263508 16.167465 30.550236 30.6299274 16.108965 30.575785 16.108965 30.305914 28.829155 16.050465 30.352758 16.050465 30.368439 1.6750616 16.050465 30.399977 16.050465 30.55662 16.733499

KanyuriraNumber of transects : 6Transect Bearing : 90.00 DegreesTransect Spacing : 2.50 km

Transect Start Lat Start Lon Finish Lat Finish Lon Length1 16.279106 30.102448 16.279106 30.201456 10.568452 16.256605 30.258331 16.256605 30.095474 17.3838163 16.234106 30.096172 16.234106 30.263653 17.8773324 16.211605 30.263899 16.211605 30.113689 16.0337735 16.189106 30.137491 16.189106 30.2659 13.7066746 16.166605 30.262726 16.166605 30.140219 13.076749

KadzeNumber of transects : 10Transect Bearing : 90.00 DegreesTransect Spacing : 4.80 km

Transect Start Lat Start Lon Finish Lat Finish Lon Length1 16.265696 30.813721 16.265696 30.926584 12.0673922 16.222494 30.970654 16.222494 30.682081 30.854208

61

Transect Start Lat Start Lon Finish Lat Finish Lon Length3 16.179295 30.614498 16.179295 31.000385 41.2591294 16.136095 31.080975 16.136095 30.55954 55.7519095 16.092896 30.577829 16.092896 31.132931 59.351556 16.049694 31.139275 16.049694 31.128031 1.2021917 16.049694 31.118258 16.049694 31.015356 11.0022448 16.049694 30.965666 16.049694 30.555922 43.8099379 16.006495 30.540133 16.006495 30.935263 42.24739410 16.006495 31.055227 16.006495 31.063496 0.884054

62

Appendix 4. Transect Summaries

Species codes:

Code SpeciesBbk BushbuckBpig BushpigBuff BuffaloCatt CattleCroc CrocodileDukr DuikerDonk DonkeyElC1 Elephant carcass, age category 1ElC2 Elephant carcass, age category 2ElC3 Elephant carcass, age category 3Elnd ElandEleF Elephant cowEleM Elephant bullGhbl Ground hornbillGbuk GrysbokHipo HippoImp ImpalaKudu KuduPCmp Poachers’ campRbuk ReedbuckRoan Roan antelopeSab SableSbuk SteinbuckShoa Sheep and/or goatsUnCa Carcass of unknown speciesWbck WaterbuckWhog WarthogZeb Zebra

Other abbreviations

Abbreviation Meaningn number of transects sampledN possible number of transects in stratumt Student’s t value, P = 0.05T # transect number- no animals seen in strips

c. s. mackie -...

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