CZECH BLOSSOM CASE STUDYFLIS Blossom meeting 17 –18 June 2013, Copenhagen

Klára Vočadlová

CENIA, czech environmental information agency

LONG-TERM THINKING AND GOVERNANCE LANDSCAPE - HISTORY

Before 1989 - 'future thinking' connected with socialist centrally planning, environmental foresights did not exist, absence of legal and institutional framework in the environmental protection

After 1989 (Velvet Revolution) – during 1990s first environment related strategic documents, 1995 first State Environmental Policy

2004 – accession to the EU, adoption and implementation of EU directives

LONG-TERM THINKING AND GOVERNANCE LANDSCAPE – PRESENT

Conception and strategic documents – environmental or including environmental components, use a forward-looking approach, mostly without scenarios

Future scenarios and long-term foresight studies are not in common use in policymaking

Forecasts and projections, quantitative scenarios x qualitative and context scenarios are lacking

Direct impact on environmental policymaking - primary intended for decision-making, mainly participation of experts, high level of political and ideological involvement

Foresight agenda is not institutionalised, not organised in a particular programme at national level, no formal requirements or methodology

Temporary ad-hoc groups or committees leading the process

Central approach Level: governmental, national Role: coordination, setting a main strategy, cooperation Studies: main cross-cutting strategic documents (Strategic

Framework for Sustainable Development ) direct relevance to the EU legislation and strategic documents

Sectoral approach Level: Ministries, departmental, national Role: coordination, cooperation, production Studies: departmental strategies integrating environmental

issues (State Environmental Policy, State Energy Policy, Potential for reduction of air pollutant emissions in the year 2020)

RESPONSIBILITIES

Regional and local approach Level: local authorities and self-governing territorial units

(regions, municipalities) Role: coordination, cooperation Studies: short-time strategic documents with regional or local

extent (Strategic Plan for Prague)

Research and nongovernmental approach Level: all research organisations, universities, NGOs, private companies Role:

scientific support for strategic planning cooperation with governmental institutions on preparation of

strategic documents external examiners political and ideological opponents

RESPONSIBILITIES

INSTITUTIONS INVOLVED

STAKEHOLDERS AND EXTERNAL RELATIONSHIPS

Public involvement: Through Strategic Environmental Assessment Through NGOs and public initiatives

BLOSSOM CASE STUDY – PROCESS OF SELECTION

Find the study key organisations

Criteria Horizon – time span 5–10 years and more Coverage – CZ Topic – economy, demography, environment Availability – public

3 studies 2020, 2040 Climate change, air pollution, energetics CZ – national level

BLOSSOM CASE STUDY – SELECTED STUDIES – TEMPLATE 2

National Program to Abate the Climate Change Impact in the Czech Republic – 2020 (2030), Ministry of the Environment, three GHGs emissions scenarios, exploratory, quantitative

Potential for Reduction of Air Pollutant Emissions in the Czech Republic in the year 2020 – Ministry of the Environment, scenarios of five main air pollutants (GAINS model), normative, quantitative

State Energy Policy of the Czech Republic – 2040, Ministry of Trade and Industry, only one preferred scenario of development and structure of basic energy indicators, exploratory and normative, quantitative

BARRIERS & SUCCESS FACTORS

Barriers Forward-looking issues are not institutionalised Any formal requirement to provide long term analysis Weak linkage between policy making and foresight

(scenarios) – short-term and mid-term policy making Forward-looking studies - tool for strategic planning and

sectoral environmental policy, scenarios are not in common use

Lack of political support and staff continuity (departmental changes)

Success EU as a driver Existence of main sectoral strategies Good situation concerning climate change and air pollution

scenarios Expert base, research

BLOSSOM: USEFULNESS, CHALLENGES, SUGGESTIONS FOR WAYS FORWARD

Find gaps and weaknesses of future thinking in the country Institutional support and budget allocation is lacking Weak historical experiences General mistrust of long-term scenarios – uncertainty x

certainty

Recognise new problems and challenges

Input for strategic discussion

Support for current policy

Comparison with other countries – inspiration, lesson learn, deadlocks

Find a way how to…: Integrate scenarios in common decision making and

strategic thinking Transform a short-term orientation into a long-term Integrate future organisations – networking, stimulate open

discussion, create a common foresight platform Connect scientific and politic rationality

Create pressure on policy makers Popularise forward-looking approach

BLOSSOM: USEFULNESS, CHALLENGES, SUGGESTIONS FOR WAYS FORWARD