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Adrien Veron-Okamoto ADB

Sustainable Transport Appraisal Rating

Outline:!•  Why bother?"•  What is STAR?"•  Next steps"

Work in progress!

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Why Bother?

Challenge!•  Better, more “sustainable” transport projects"

•  Are we on track?"!“we are committed to introducing annual reporting on our

sustainable transport related lending and to developing common arrangements for this purpose. !

!we have initiated work on definitions, setting targets and choosing indicators for sustainable transport/mobility and assistance provided to support sustainable transport/mobility, with a view to finalizing these within 2012.”!

"“Over the coming decade we expect to provide more than $175 billion of loans and grants for transport in developing countries. These investments will help to develop more sustainable transport systems”"

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Which rating system for ADB?!•  LEED"•  GreenLites"•  ILAST"•  STARS"•  Envision"

•  Greenway"•  Green Roads"•  Invest"•  CEEQUAL"•  BE2ST"

What are we rating?!•  Processes?"•  Construction? "•  Roads?"•  Transport systems?"•  Investment programs?"

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Rating system desirable attributes!•  Adaptable"•  Discriminatory"•  Objective"•  Simple"•  Communicable"

STAR

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Sustainable Transport Appraisal Rating"

•  Objective-driven"•  Impact-based"•  Qualitative & Quantitative"•  Unified"•  Transparent"

"

Rating Makeup!

30%!

30%!

30%!

10%!

Economic!

Environmental!11. Transport-related

emissions & pollution"12. Natural & built

environment"13. Resource efficiency"14. Climate resilience""

1.  Efficiency: people & businesses"

2.  Quality & reliability"3.  Fiscal burden"4.  Employment"5.  Wider economic benefits:

cross-border, urban, rural"Social!6.  Basic accessibility"7.  Affordability"8.  Inclusion"9.  Social cohesion"10. Safety, security ""& health"

Risk to Sustainability!•  Design & evaluation risk"•  Implementation risk"•  Operational risk"

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Rating Levels:! Min. Points!

Highly Sustainable" 1.8"

Sustainable" 1.2"

Moderately Sustainable! 0.6"

Marginally Sustainable" 0.1"

Moderately Unsustainable" -0.5"

Unsustainable" -1.1"

Highly Unsustainable" -3"

Rating Construction!

Assess Impacts & Risks""

Social Impacts!Basic Accessibility" Neutral"Affordability" Moderate Positive"Inclusion" Large Positive"Social Cohesion" Moderate Positive"Safety, Security & Health" Moderate Negative"

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Rating Construction!

Assess Impacts & Risks""

Highly Economically Effective"

Socially Sustainable"

Moderately Environmentally Sustainable"

Significant Risks to Sustainability!

Rate Core Criteria"

Rating Construction!

Assess Impacts & Risks""

Score! Weight!

Highly Economically Effective" 3" 30%"

Socially Sustainable" 2" 30%"

Moderately Environmentally Sustainable" 1" 30%"

Significant Risks to Sustainability" -1" 10%"

Rate Core Criteria" Overall Rating"

Weighted Average: 1.7!Sustainable  

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Next Steps

Work Ahead!•  Piloting"•  Consultations"•  Rating process"•  Integration with project cycle"•  Aligning appraisal system"

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ECO

NO

MY

Improve access to CBD

Transport Efficiency Bus user transport times to drop by average 20 minutes Stations layout includes easy, rickshaw, pedestrian and bike access Major Positive 375

Reduce transport costs

Quality and Reliability Bus service quality will increase because of stricter enforcement of bus schedules and fleet renewal Large Positive 70

Improve transport system reliability

Preserve transport employment

Fiscal burden Public account net present value over life cycle: -$100 million Moderate Negative (15)

Employment Two hundred operators of current buses will need training / placement Moderate Negative Wider Benefits: Urban agglomeration Additional 20,000 m2 office development along corridor expected Large Positive 10

SOC

IAL

Maintain bus system affordability

Better travel options for women, disabled

Increase NMT safety

Basic accessibility n/a Neutral

Affordability Bus fares will be kept at current low level. 50% of users are expected to be very poor people. Moderate Positive

Inclusion 60% of riders are women. Wheel-chair access provided at half of bus stops Large Positive

Social cohesion Corridor layout includes wide pedestrian sidewalks and bike lanes Moderate Positive 10

Safety, security and health Segregated transport lanes and safe pedestrian crossing to reduce accident rates by 20% on corridor Moderate Positive 10

ENVI

RO

NM

ENT

Reduce transport CO2, PM and NOx emissions

Emissions and pollution PM air pollution to drop from 200 ppm/m3 to 180 ppm/m3 on corridor Moderate Positive 40

Natural and built environment 10 km elevated sections in urban areas Moderate Negative

Resource efficiency Increased bus share to reduce fuel consumption by 1,000 tons annually Moderate Positive

Resilience and vulnerability n/a Neutral

RISK TO SUSTAINABILITY

Design and Evaluation risks Project feasibility study stage completed, high modal shift assumed Significant

Implementation risks Weak capacity of EA to implement projects and maintain roads. Two parallel TAs provided to raise capacity. Moderate

Operational sustainability risks No subsidy required to finance bus operations but additional capital subsidy needed in 10 years to renew bus fleet. Significant

STAR results: Sustainable: Economically Effective, Socially Sustainable, Moderately Environmentally Sustainable, Significant Risks to Sustainability

CBA results: EIRR: 18% NPV: $215 m Benefit/Cost Ratio: 1.9 Immediate Rate of Return: 14%

Project Name Costaguana Mass Transit Development Project ADB financing: $100 m

Problem Increased congestion and delays on most avenues of CBD, vehicle fleet growing at 10% annually, heavy pollution and CO2 emissions

Project Description Development of a 30 km bus rapid transit corridor in Costaguana’s CBD

Alternatives Considered Widening of trunk roads, improvements to current bus services, development of LRT or metro

Planning Objectives ST Impact Areas Qualitative Description / Performance Indicator Rating Monetized Value ($m)

Capital costs (235)

O&M Costs (55)

Appraisal Matrix!

Objec&ve  Se*ng  

Investment  Planning  

Project  Concept  

Project  Approval  Implementa&on  

Performance  Evalua&on  

Situa&on  analysis  

ST Objectives

Performance indicators

Assess Performance

Align

Monitor

Evaluate Results

Appraise

Maximize

Optimize

Performance Indicators!

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Aligning Appraisal Framework!

PRO

JEC

TS

CPS

Demand analysis

Econ.

Impacts

Social analysis

Soc.

Impacts

EIA

Env. Impacts

DMF

CBA

ADB STI Objectives

Result Framework

AD

B

PRO

JEC

TS

C

PS

AD

B

Demand analysis

Econ.

Impacts

Social analysis

Soc.

Impacts

EIA

Env. Impacts

DMF + Appraisal Matrix

CBA + Project-level STAR

Result framework + Appraisal Matrix

Portfolio level-STAR

ADB STI Objectives

Thank you! averon@adb.org"