ca greenhouse gas goals...ca greenhouse gas goals 0 200. 400. 600. 1990. 2020. 2030. 2050. total ghg...
TRANSCRIPT
CA Greenhouse Gas Goals
0
200
400
600
1990 2020 2030 2050
Tota
l GHG
(MM
TCO
2e)
Note: MMT = Million Metric Tons
Emissions to be Reduced by 2020
2020 Target
2030 Target
2050 Goal
Additional Reductions by 2030
Additional Reductions by 2050
2
Proposed Scoping Plan Scenario › *SB 350 – increase renewable energy and energy efficiency
› *SB 1383 – Short-Lived Climate Pollutant Reduction Plan
› *SB 375 – support sustainable community development
› *Mobile Source Strategy – help State achieve its federal and state air quality standards
› *Low Carbon Fuel Standard
› *Sustainable Freight Action Plan
› New Refinery Efficiency Measure – 20 percent by 2030 - Fewer GHG emissions per barrel of a refined product
› Post-2020 Cap-and-Trade Program - Trading and offset usage limit of 8 percent
*Existing commitments included in any Scoping Plan Update
4
› No Cap-and-Trade – rely on direct measures for all reductions
› Carbon Tax – replace Cap-and-Trade with a carbon tax
› All Cap-and-Trade – no refinery measure and no enhancement to Low Carbon Fuel Standard (keep at 10% reduction in CI)
› Cap-and-Tax – require each facility/entity to reduce emissions annually with no trading, emissions would be taxed
Alternatives Evaluated
6
› The No Cap-and-Trade Alternative includes direct
regulations on a wide variety of sectors
- Specific required reductions for all large greenhouse sources
› Uncertainty in achieving reductions due to statutory, cost,
or technology barriers
7
No Cap-and-Trade Alternative
› Replaces Cap-and-Trade in Proposed Scoping Plan Scenario with a
carbon tax
› Requires additional statutory authority
› Less certain to meet 2030 target because hard to set correct tax rate
› Difficult to link with other jurisdictions and harder to address leakage
concerns
8
Carbon Tax Alternative
› Relies on Cap-and-Trade
› No refinery measure
› No enhancement to Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS)
(keep at 10% reduction in CI)
› Less certainty about amount of greenhouse gas
reductions at refineries
9
All Cap-and-Trade Alternative
› The Cap-and-Trade Program would be replaced by a Cap & Tax Regulation post-2020
› Emissions from each covered entity would be subject to a declining annual cap
› Each metric ton of GHG emissions from covered entities would be subject to a tax at the social cost of carbon
› Penalties would be assessed for any annual emissions above an individual entity cap
› No trading of emissions allowances and no use of offset credits
› Preliminary estimates indicate this alternative has highest direct costs
10
Cap-and-Tax Alternative
› AB 197 Analyses
- Social costs of measures
- Air quality impacts of measures
- Cost-effectiveness of measures
11
Additional Elements in Proposed Plan
› CEQA comment period: January 20 – March 6
www.arb.ca.gov/lispub/comm/bclist.php
› EJAC Community Meetings and Committee Meetings
› April 2017: Release Final Proposed Scoping Plan
› April 2017: Final Board consideration
Scoping Plan webpage:
www.arb.ca.gov/cc/scopingplan/scopingplan.htm 12
Schedule