CabinetOffice Behavioural Insights Team

Applying Behavioural Insights Singapore CSC, 13th December 2013

Dr Rory Gallagher

CabinetOffice Behavioural Insights Team

Quick Quiz

1. Was Mahatma Gandhi older or younger than 100 years old when he died?

2. How old was Mahatma Gandhi when he died?

CabinetOffice Behavioural Insights Team

3. Was Sir Isaac Newton older or younger than 30 years old when he died?

Quick Quiz

4. How old was Sir Isaac Newton when he died?

CabinetOffice Behavioural Insights Team

5. You want to buy a toaster that costs $100. You are told that the same toaster is being sold for $50, but it is a 15 minute drive away.

Would you travel to get the discounted toaster? 6. You want to buy a television that costs

$3,000. You are told that the same television is being sold for $2,950, but it is a 15 minute drive away.

Would you travel to get the discounted television?

Quick Quiz

CabinetOffice Behavioural Insights Team

7. A bat and ball cost $1.10. The bat costs $1 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost?

a) $0.10

b) $0.05

c) $0.01

Quick Quiz

CabinetOffice Behavioural Insights Team

We need to think differently about behaviour

System 1

Fast thinking/Automatic

intuitive, effortless

2x2

Taking your daily commute

System 2

Slow thinking/Reflective –

deliberate, analytic

24x17

Planning a trip overseas

‘It turns out that the environmental effects on

behavior are a lot stronger than most people expect’

Daniel Kahneman, Nobel Laureate

‘It turns out that the environmental effects on

behavior are a lot stronger than most people expect’

Daniel Kahneman, Nobel Laureate

CabinetOffice Behavioural Insights Team

BI can help change the way we think about and approach problems

CabinetOffice Behavioural Insights Team

Behavioural insights offers new evidence and frameworks for influencing behaviour

1. Regulation

2. Incentives

3. Information

Behavioural Insights

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Long history of ‘nudging’

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Guide for Policymakers

Shows Implications for Policy

Fantastic summary text

These insights are supported by a rich and growing literature

EAST

A simple framework

for applying BI to policy

Defaults Simplification Remove friction

CabinetOffice Behavioural Insights Team

90% ...stay in

75% ...of even those who opt-out support the policy

6% vs. 80% Vastly more effective than subsidies

Pension opt-outs

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Direct to form – every click matters

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19.2%

23.4%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Webpage Direct to Form

% Response Rates to Letters Sending People to the Webpage vs the Form

Direct to form – every click matters

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Singapore: donating at MRTs

Salience Personalisation Incentive design

CabinetOffice Behavioural Insights Team

DVLA letters to persistent non-payers of car tax

UNCLASSIFIED

1 2 3

UNTAXED VEHICLE WARNING Our latest information shows you have not taxed your vehicle.

PAY YOUR TAX OR LOSE YOUR [MAKE OF CAR] You have been caught driving your [make of car] untaxed.

Image captured on traffic camera of untaxed car stapled on the front of the letter

CabinetOffice Behavioural Insights Team

DVLA letter trial: Results

40.4%

42.4%

48.8%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Original New New + image

% Relicensing rates of persistent offenders to DVLA letters

CabinetOffice Behavioural Insights Team

Making it attractive to use your Private Health Insurance in public hospitals

CabinetOffice Behavioural Insights Team

Early results are very promising

15.64%

16.63%

18.23%

17.62%

18.56%

14%

15%

15%

16%

16%

17%

17%

18%

18%

19%

19%

12 monthaverage

Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13

Private patient admissions as a proportion of total ED admissions 12 month average vs. trial months to date

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Singapore: Giro prize draw

Norms Networks Reciprocity Commitments

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Social norms and tax

Nine out of ten people pay their tax on time.

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Social norms and tax

33.6%

35.1% 35.9%

37.2%

39.0%

Control (8,558) UK Norm (8,300) Local Norm (8,403) Debt Norm (8,779) Local + Debt Norm(8,643)

% paying after 23 days

CabinetOffice Behavioural Insights Team

Using transparency/social comparison to reduce crime

Car theft index introduced in the UK

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1981 1991 1995 1997 2001/02 2002/03 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10

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Singapore: LTA social norms

Key moments Habits Making a plan

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Increasing payment of court fines

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Court fines - personalisation

£4

£9

£13

£11 £12

£8

£11

£9 £10

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

No text Standard Personal Amount Personal +Amount

Ave

rage

am

ou

nt

pai

d (

£)

Text condition

Trial 1

Trial 2

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Legacy Giving

5.00%

10.40%

15.40%

Control Just Ask Passion Ask

Proportion Leaving a Legacy Gift

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Singapore: emergency preparedness

A way of working...

CabinetOffice Behavioural Insights Team

Our approach has 4 key stages

Define Diagnose Design Test,

Learn, Adapt

Context, Details, People & Evidence … matter

CabinetOffice Behavioural Insights Team

RCTs: a visual summary

INTERVENTION

CONTROL

INTERVENTION

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• Operational constraints – Buy-in

– Sample size

– Data tracking and sharing

• Political constraints – Established programmes – Transparency - ‘nil’ results/ ‘failures’

– Time frames

• Trade-offs – Who/how randomise – No. of arms – Impact (‘bundle’) vs specific causal effect

RCTs: constraints and trade-offs

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Case study: Helping people find work

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Applying EAST

CabinetOffice Behavioural Insights Team

Helping people find employment

55% 55% 57% 56%

58%

61%

53%

69%

66% 65%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Feb Mar April May June July Aug

% off-flow from benefits after 13 weeks

CabinetOffice Behavioural Insights Team

• Growing momentum in BI – UK, Australia, SG

• Important addition to tool box, not a silver bullet

• Test, Learn, Adapt; BUT won’t always work

• Next phase = sustainability, segmentation, policy

Final thoughts