calgary real estate forum · 2017. 10. 26. · canada mortgage and housing corporation calgary cma...

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

Calgary Real Estate Forum

October 26, 2017


Calgary’s Economy and Demographics


Calgary CMA Employment

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Actual Seasonally Adjusted

3Source: Statistics Canada

employed (,000s)


-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20

Accommodation and food servicesPublic Administration

Wholesale and Retail TradeBusiness, building & other support services

Transportation and warehousingFinance, insurance, real estate and leasing

Health care and social assistanceConstruction

Information, culture and recreationManufacturing

UtilitiesProfessional, scientific & technical services

Other ServicesMining, quarring, oil & gas, forestry, fishing

Educational services

4Source: Statistics Canada September yr/yr change in employment (,000s)

Calgary CMA Employment by Industry


Unemployment Rates

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Calgary Canada

5Source: Statistics Canada

seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (%)


Calgary CMA Population Growth by Age

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2016

2006-2015 Average

Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC calculations

year/year change (%)

6


Calgary’s New Apartment Market


Calgary CMA Apartment Housing Starts

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

8Source: CMHC, CMHC calculations

units (,000s) – SAAR Trend


Calgary CMA Apartment Inventory

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

9Source: CMHC

units


Calgary CMA Apartment Inventory by price range

0 100 200 300 400

<149,999

150,000-199,999

200,000-249,999

250,000-299,999

300,000-349,999

350,000-399,999

400,000-449,999

450,000-499,999

500,000-549,999

550,000-599,999

600,000-649,999

650,000-699,999

700,000-749,999

750,000-799,999

Sep-17

Sep-16

Source: CMHC

0 100 200 300 400

800,000-849,999850,000-899,999900,000-949,999950,000-999,999

1,000,000-1,049,9991,050,000-1,099,9991,100,000-1,149,9991,150,000-1,199,9991,200,000-1,249,9991,250,000-1,299,9991,300,000-1,349,9991,350,000-1,399,9991,400,000-1,449,999

1,450,000+unpriced

Sep-17

Sep-16


Calgary’s Existing Apartment Market


Calgary Monthly MLS® Apartment Sales

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Actual Trended

12Source: CREB, CMHC calculations

units


Calgary MLS® Apartment New and Active Listings

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

New Listings Active Listings


units (trended)


Calgary MLS® Sales-to-Active Listings Ratio

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Total Apartments


sales-to-active listings ratio (trended)


Calgary MLS® Benchmark Price

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Single-family Row Apartment

15Source: CREA

benchmark price, residential


Calgary’s Rental Market


Calgary CMA Apartment Rental Universe

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Purpose-built Condo Apartment

17Source: CMHC, October Surveys

rental units


Calgary CMA Apartment Vacancy Rate

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


vacancy rate (%)


Calgary CMA Same-sample Average Rents

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


percentage change of average two-bedroom apartment rent1

1 The percentage change of average rent is based on those structure that were common

to the survey sample in both October 2015 and October 2016.


Calgary CMA Estimated Rental Units by Rent Range

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

< $750 $750 to $999 $1,000 to $1,249 $1,250 to $1,499 $1,500 +

2007 2016

20Source: CMHC, Estimated Rental Apartment Structures of 3 or more units

estimated purpose-built apartment rental units


Calgary Apartment Rental Supply

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Completions (Rental)

Absorptions (Condo)

Under Construction (Rental)

21Source: CMHC

units (6-month moving average) units (6-month moving average)


Contact Information

Richard Cho

Principal, Market Analysis, Calgary

[email protected]

(403) 515-2996

22

mailto:[email protected]


Disclaimer

The information, analyses and opinions contained in this document are based on various sources believed to be reliable, but

their accuracy cannot be guaranteed. The information, analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations for which

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility.

©2017, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. All rights reserved.

CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this document’s content solely for personal, corporate or public policy research, and

educational purposes. This permission consists of the right to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses

and in the reporting of results, conclusions and forecasts, including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted

from this document. CMHC retains the right to request that such use be discontinued for any reason. No use whatsoever can be

made of the name, logo or other official marks of CMHC without the prior written consent of CMHC. The use, reproduction or

broadcast of the document itself, in whole or in part, in its physical, electronic or any other form, is prohibited.

Subject to the preceding conditions, any use, reproduction or transmission of the content of a CMHC document must include

the source of the information, including statistical data, acknowledged as follows: “Source: CMHC (or “Adapted from CMHC,” if

appropriate), name and date of document.”

23

calgary real estate forum · 2017. 10. 26. · canada mortgage and housing corporation calgary cma...

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