california budget sandra m. emerson. california budget prospects general fund in the red for next...
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California Budget
Sandra M. Emerson
California Budget Prospects
General
Fund in the
red for nextfive years
Projected Revenue (billions)
Volatile Revenue Areas
• Corporate Income Tax (NOLs)
• Personal Income tax
< $50K
Income Population Tax Percent
< $50, 000 50% 6%
$51,000 to $100,000 20% 14%
Over $100,000Over a million
30%.0025 est.
80%**$15 billion (capital gains)
The Persistent Gap
Major Spending Areas
• Education
• Health/social services
• And all else including debt
Education
• K to 14
Higher Education
• Projected Expenditures in University Ed.YEAR 2008-9 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
UC 3.1 3.11 3.16 3.22 3.3 3.4
CSU 2.9 3.00 3.00 3.14 3.2 3.3
TOTAL 6.0 6.11 6.16 6.36 6.5 6.7
Change -- 2% .8% 3.2% 2.2% 3%
Health and Social Services
YEAR 2008-9 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
Spent 31.0 32.6 34.6 36.5 38.6 40.9
Change -- 5% 6% 5% 5.7% 5.9%
Other 2008 to 2014• Corrections and Rehabilitation average
annual increase of 5.3%
• Transportation annual increase of 4.5%
• Everything else: 9.2% annual increase
• Debt services 9.9% annual increase.
Outcomes • Propositions 1A-1F
1A to 1E to raise revenue defeated.
1F passed- no legislative pay increases during budget deficit.
Summary
• Rise in revenue by 2011
• Shrinking gap but persistent through 2014
• Based on steady state analysis
Comments or Questions?