california climate, extreme events and climate change implications peter coombe staff environmental...
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![Page 1: California Climate, Extreme Events and Climate Change Implications Peter Coombe Staff Environmental Scientist CA Department of Water Resources pcoombe@water.ca.gov](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062716/56649dd35503460f94aca328/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
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California Climate, Extreme Events and Climate Change Implications
Peter CoombeStaff Environmental Scientist
CA Department of Water Resources
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DWR Forecasting
• DWR forecasts future water needs, evaluates and inventories existing water supplies, explores conservation, and storage options.
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Climate:
Long term average conditions
Weather:
The conditions day to day
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PRISM Annual Precipitation (1961-1990) Map(Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model)
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California Precipitation
CAMean Annual Precipitation In./Yr. 22.8Maximum DailyPrecipitation In. 26.1
Precipitation PatternsWinter-Spring
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Year to Year Precipitation Variability
Dettinger et al, 2011
Std Dev of Annual PrecipitationMean Annual Precipitation
California precipitation is uniquely variableStd Dev of Annual Precipitation
Mean Annual Precipitation
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Dettinger et al, 2011
Three-day episodes with > 16 Inches precipitation since 1950
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Just a few storms each year are the core of
California’s water supplies
Storms and California Water Supply
Dettinger et al, 2011
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Driest 30 years: 1908-1937 21.28 inches
Wettest 30 years: 1977-2006 24.88 inches
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1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 20000
5
10
15
20
25
California 1000 Year Rain Storms per Decade
Num
ber
of S
torm
s pe
r D
ecad
e
Year Storms1865 21875 21885 41895 31905 11915 71925 41935 41945 31955 51965 91975 61985 101995 212005 10
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Extreme Precipitation and Storm Frequency
The Top 5 “Worst” Storms of the 20th Century
in California
“Nature in California,” . . . The San Francisco journalist Carl Nolte observed . . . “is a smiling
killer that can turn on you at any time.”
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#5
1964 December 19 to 24
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#5
1964 December 19 to 24
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#4
1978 February 10
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#4
1978 February 10
Then
Now
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#3
1986 February 11 to 18
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#3
1986 February 11 to 18
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#2
1962 October 11 to 13
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#2
1962 October 11 to 13
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#1
1969 January - February
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#1
1969 January - February
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Atmospheric Rivers
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Satellite Observation of Water Vapor
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2 Jan 1997 SSM/I satellite observations
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Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) IR image of major West Coast storm• Time = 0030 UTC 5 January 2008• Low pressure center is off Washington coast
The Storm of 4-5 Jan 2008Note that major impacts were focused >500 miles south of the Low pressure center in this storm.
This differs significantly from hurricanes, but the impacts are enormous and spread over a large area.
L
~500 miles
Atmospheric river
7-13 in rain
6-10 ft snow
32 ft waves
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1/2/2008 1/3/2008 1/4/2008 1/5/2008 1/6/2008 1/7/20080
2
4
6
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10
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14
16
0
1
2
3
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Sweeney Creek, January 2008 Storm
Date
Sta
ge
(fe
et)
24
Ho
ur
Ra
in T
ota
ls
Maximum Return Period: 602 Years
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Storm Track changes
Flooding
Tropical Convection ENSO
Key Phenomena Affecting California Water Supply/Flooding:
Atmospheric
River
Easterly Wave
Cyclogensis
L
The most extreme CA storm would result from a rare alignment of key processes
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IPCC 2100 Projections(From 4th Assessment Report 2007)
• Global temp up 1.8 to 4.0°C (3 – 7° F) from 1990
• Sea level rise by .18 to .59 m (.6 to 1.9 ft) (with an added .1 to .2 m if Greenland ice
melt increases beyond 1993-03 rate)• Precipitation more uncertain but likely increase at
higher latitudes and near equator, less in subtropics
• Extreme events (floods) more likely
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Take Home Points
• Atmospheric Rivers are important for floods and water supply
• Alignment of processes necessary for extreme events
• Extreme weather events have occurred in the recent past, with a short period of record, probability says we haven’t seen the “worst “ yet.
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California Climate, Extreme Events and Climate Change Implications
Peter CoombeStaff Environmental Scientist
CA Department of Water Resources