california energy commission overview of revised vehicle attributes and scenarios energy demand...

California Energy Commission

Overview of Revised Vehicle Attributes and Scenarios

Energy Demand Cases and Forecast of Vehicle Attributes for 2015 Transportation Energy Demand

First Floor, Rosenfeld Hearing Room

September 30, 2015

Aniss Bahreinian

Demand Analysis Office

Energy Assessments Division

[email protected] / 916-653-0381

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Overview of Attributes– Light Duty Vehicles (LDV)– Medium and Heavy Duty Vehicles (MDV/HDV)

Overview of Scenarios– Preliminary Forecast– Revised Forecast

Purpose


Cases vs Scenarios• “Case” refers to the demand forecast, defined by

different combinations of key inputs.• “Common cases” refers to the use of same

income, population, and fuel prices (low, reference, high) across different energy demand forecasts at the Energy Commission.

• “Scenarios” refer to the inputs that are used in the Transportation Energy Demand Forecast in the “common cases”, as well as the “transportation specific” demand cases, and include vehicle attributes, fuel price, and consumer preferences.

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Vehicles are characterized by their attributes such as:• Price• Fuel Economy/Miles Per Gallon (MPG)• Fuel Cost• Maintenance Cost• Range• Acceleration• Storage Capacity• …and others

What Are Vehicle Attributes?


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Economic and demographic forecasts determine fleet size, LDV models.

Vehicle attributes drive consumers’ choice of vehicle type• Fuel prices and vehicle attributes determine fleet

composition, by vehicle class and fuel type. • Plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) is one of the

fuel/technology choices the consumers have, as is fuel cell vehicle (FCV), given their vehivle attributes and relative fuel prices.

Fleet Size vs Fleet Composition


Consumer Choose from10 Fuel/Vehicle Technologies, and 15 classes of LDVs

• Gasoline• Gasoline-Electric Hybrid• Gasoline-E85 Flex Fuel Vehicle (FFV)• Diesel• Diesel-Electric Hybrid• CNG• Gasoline-Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) Dual Fuel• Battery Electric Vehicle• Plug-in Electric Hybrid Vehicle (PHEV)• Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle (FCV)

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• Most studies use broader LDV vehicle classes. – For instance, David Greene (and National Research Council

or NRC) study use LaveTrans model with two broad classes of cars and trucks for LDVs.

• Energy Commission models use 15 classes of LDVs: – Subcompact, compact, midsize, large and sport cars, 3

classes of cross utility, 3 classes of sport utility vehicles (SUV), 2 classes of vans, and 2 classes of trucks.

15 classes of LDVs


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• While Energy Commission models use class-based analysis, the reality is that different makes and models of vehicles compete for consumer choice.

• The mid-size class has the most sales in California. − e.g. Nissan Leaf is one of 121 other makes and model choices

within the midsize class, if one has already decided to purchase a midsize vehicle.

Vehicle Class-Based Analysis


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• Almost all research and surveys have identified vehicle price as the primary factor in vehicle choice.

• Manufacturer suggested retail price (MSRP) includes the dealer mark-up over the manufacturer invoice price, and other fees.

• Transaction price: – Includes additional amount paid for different options added to

base vehicle.– Excludes government incentives such as rebates and tax

breaks.– Varies by negotiating skills of salesperson and the buyer.– Can change over time, for the same model year vehicle,

generally lower after new model year vehicles are introduced.

Vehicle Prices


Price Response?

Price Changes July 2012 March 2013

Average New MSRP $37,124 $37,991

Total Discounts $4,941 $5,467

Manufacturer Incentives $3,604 $4,162

Dealer Incentives $1,337 $1,305

Core Transaction Price $32,183 $31,826

%Mfg Incentive of MSRP 9.71% 10.96%

%Total Discount of MSRP 13.31% 14.39%

Source: CNW Research: retail Automotive Summary March 2013

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• MSRP almost always exceeds the negotiated or transaction price.

• To comply with regulations manufacturers can distribute profit differently across different models they supply to market.

• Sales Weighted Average Price (SWAP) is based on transaction price and # of vehicles sold of each of the 121 makes and models in the midsize class, for example.

Vehicle Prices and Vehicle Models


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The Energy Commission’s forecasting models do not include vehicle choice for MD/HD vehicles.

For Trucks only

Staff used two vehicle attributes in a preprocessing step to forecast market penetration rate by alternative fuel type, for compressed natural gas (CNG), liquefied natural gas (LNG), electric, and diesel electric hybrid:

• Vehicle Price• Fuel Economy

MD/HDVs


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Overview of LDV Scenarios


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Three demand cases were defined by three sets of model inputs for energy prices, income and population.

One set of light duty vehicle attributes, identified as the reference scenario, was used for all demand cases.

Demand cases were defined as:• High Energy Demand: Low energy prices, high income,

high population growth• Reference: Reference energy prices, income, and

population growth• Low Energy Demand: High energy prices, low income and

low population growth

Preliminary LDV Forecast Scenarios


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• ZEV regulations apply to auto manufacturers.• Manufacturers alter the attributes of the vehicles they offer

for sale in order to meet the requirements. • Consultants projecting vehicle attributes have been directed

to generate vehicle attributes to ensure compliance with ZEV regulations, for all demand cases.

• Staff used the 2013 IEPR vehicle attribute projections, with price forecasts generated from the LaveTrans model.

• State and Federal ZEV incentives are applied in demand models that result in additional impact on consumer choices.

• Consumer preferences were held constant in the preliminary 2015 IEPR demand forecast.

ZEV Compliance Method


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• Staff will use three scenarios for each of the following vehicle attributes:

• Vehicle Price• Makes and Models

• The LDV attribute scenario differences will be driven by energy price scenario differences, using LaveTrans model (the same model used in NRC and David Greene studies).

• More aggressive measures, such as greater ZEV vehicle price reductions, to ensure ZEV compliance in the reference case.

What is Different in the Revised Forecast?


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• We will create 3 Plug in Electric Vehicle (PEV) Demand scenarios for consumer preferences for fuel type:

• Low PEV demand case. No change in consumer preferences over the forecast period.

• Reference case Continuously increasing preferences, in favor of all ZEV vehicles, as the ZEV markets expand..

• High PEV demand case Continuously increasing preferences are the same as in reference scenario, for ZEV vehicles.

• This is a departure from past practice.• The revised reference case forecast will be further

constrained to meet the ARB’s ZEV most likely scenario.

What is Different in the Revised Forecast? (Continued)


Preliminary vs Revised Forecast Input Scenarios

• Demand cases are defined by different combinations of key inputs.

• “Common” refers to the use of same income, population, and fuel prices across different models.

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Common Demand Cases

Income & Population Fuel Prices Vehicle Attributes Consumer Preferences for ZEV, Over Time

Preliminary Revised Preliminary Revised Preliminary Revised Preliminary Revised

High High High Low Low Ref High Constant Increasing

Reference Ref Ref Ref Ref Ref Ref Constant Increasing

Low Low Low High High Ref Low Constant Constant


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Overview of MDV/HDV Scenarios


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• The three demand cases are the same as defined for LDVs.

• In the preliminary 2015 IEPR demand forecast, staff used one CNG market penetration rate for alternative fuels from the National Petroleum Council (NPC) high case, same as the market penetration rate that was used for the 2013 IEPR.

Preliminary 2015 IEPR Forecast


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• The revised 2015 IEPR demand forecast will use three sets of market penetration rates for different alternative fuel vehicles.

• These market penetration rates are based on truck price and fuel economy forecasts developed by Sierra Research, as well as fuel price scenarios developed by staff.

What is Different in the Revised Forecast?


Questions? Comments?

Aniss Bahreinian

Demand Analysis Office

Energy Assessments Division

[email protected] / 916-653-0381

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california energy commission overview of revised vehicle attributes and scenarios energy demand...

Documents

vehicle price

vehicle choice

midsize vehicle

forecast of vehicle

broader ldv vehicle

classes of trucks

vehivle attributes

classes of vans