california housing market update - nest seekers international
TRANSCRIPT
CaliforniaHousing Market Update
Monthly Sales and Price Statistics
February 2021
Existing Home Sales
% change+9.7% YTY
California housing market: sales dipped for the second month as price growth remained robust
page
02
Price
$699,000+20.6% Y2Y
Unsold Inventory Index
2.0 months-44.4% Y2Y
Median Days on Market
10 days-56.5% Y2Y
February 2021
CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
+15.9% YTD
462,720
Existing Home Sales% change
+10.5% YTY
February 2021 Southern California Housing Snapshot
page
3
Unsold Inventory Index
2.0 months
Median Days on Market
10 days
Sales Price to List Price Ratio
100.8%
CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
+12.0% YTD
Existing Home Price% change
$675,000
+16.4% YTY
Existing Home Sales% change
+22.4% YTY
February 2021 Central Coast Housing Snapshot
page
4
Unsold Inventory Index
2.4 months
Median Days on Market
13 days
Sales Price to List Price Ratio
100.0%
CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
+21.2% YTD
Existing Home Price% change
$828,500
+15.9% YTY
Existing Home Sales% change
-0.3% YTY
February 2021 Central Valley Housing Snapshot
page
5
Unsold Inventory Index
1.9 months
Median Days on Market
7 days
Sales Price to List Price Ratio
101.2%
CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
+3.3% YTD
Existing Home Price% change
$405,000
+19.1% YTY
Existing Home Sales% change
+16.1% YTY
February 2021 Bay Area Housing Snapshot
page
6
Unsold Inventory Index
2.1 months
Median Days on Market
10 days
Sales Price to List Price Ratio
104.3%
CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
+23.6% YTD
Existing Home Price% change
$1,151,500
+26.5% YTY
Existing Home Sales% change
+17.3% YTY
February 2021 Far North Housing Snapshot
page
7
Unsold Inventory Index
2.8 months
Median Days on Market
37 days
Sales Price to List Price Ratio
100.0%
CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
+5.2% YTD
Existing Home Price% change
$335,000
+11.7% YTY
Sales
Sales had the smallest yearly growth in seven months
page
9
California, February 2021 Sales: 462,720 Units, +15.9% YTD, +9.7% YTY, -4.5% MTM
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Ja
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SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Sales growth dipped below 10% for the first time since July 2020
page
10
9.7%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Year-over-Year % Chg 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Year-over-Year % Chg)
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Bay Area sales growth moderated
page
11
16.1%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Ja
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n-2
1
Yo
Y %
ch
g.
Bay Area 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Bay Area)
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
So. California sales growth continued to decelerate
page
12
10.5%
-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%
0%10%20%30%40%
Ja
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So CA 6 per. Mov. Avg. (So CA)
Yo
Y %
ch
g.
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Central Valley had its first decline since June 2020
page
13
-0.3%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%Ja
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Central Valley 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Central Valley)
Yo
Y %
ch
g.
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Sales by Region
page
14
-0.3%
16.1%
10.5%
22.4%
17.3%
12.9%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
February 2021 Home Sales
Growth by Region
Central
Valley
20%
S.F. Bay
Area
17%Southern
California
50%
Central
Coast
4%
Far North
3%
Other
Counties
6%
February 2021
Home Sales by Region
Sales growth more robust in higher price segments
page
15
February 2021
(YTY% Chg.)
-38%
-12%
0%14%
46% 50%
79%
-60%-40%-20%
0%20%40%60%80%
100% 35%
42%
23%
47%
37%
16%
$0 - $499k
$500 - $999k
$1M+
Share by Price Segment
2021
2020
SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Sales growth continued to moderate in all price segments except for the top end
page
16
-80%-60%-40%-20%
0%20%40%60%80%
100%120%140%
De
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8
Ja
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9
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9
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9
Ap
r-19
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9
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Ap
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0
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No
v-2
0
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n-2
1
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b-2
1
YTY
% C
hg
. in
Sa
les
$0 - $299k $300 - $399k $400 - $499k $500 - $749k
$750 - $999k $1,000 - $1,999k $2,000k+
SERIES: Percent Change in Sales
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Pending sales growth dropped below 20 percent for the first time in nine months
page
17
17.9%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Ja
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7
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n-2
1YTY
% C
hg
. in
Pe
nd
ing
Sa
les
SERIES: Percent Change in Pending Sales
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Price
California median price had back-to-back 20 percent price growth
page
19
California, February 2021: $699,000, -0.1% MTM, +20.6% YTY
$-
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
Ja
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7
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9
Ma
y-2
0
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1
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Condo/Townhome median price bounced back and set a new record high
page
20
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000Ja
n-0
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Me
dia
n P
ric
e
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condos/Townhomes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
California, February 2020: $480,000, February 2021: $530,000
Median price growth for Single-Family Homes continued to outperform that of Condos
page
21
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%Ja
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YTY
% C
hg
. in
Pri
ce
Condo Single-Family Homes
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condo/Townhomes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Price/Square foot highest since July 2007
page
22
February 2021: $338, +2.1% MTM, +19.4% YTY
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
Ja
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7
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1
PR
ICE P
ER
SQ
. FT.
SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Price/Square foot: the gap between condo/townhomes and single-family homes started widening again
page
23
$338
$449
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
Ja
n-0
7
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PR
ICE P
ER
SQ
. FT.
Diff. in Price/Sq. Ft. SFH Condo/Townhome
SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Sales price-to-list price ratio set a record high
page
24
February 2021: 101.0%, 0.8% MTM, +1.9% YTY
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
Ja
n-0
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n-2
0
Ju
l-2
0
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n-2
1
Sa
les-
to-L
ist
Pri
ce
Ra
tio
SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
List price growth moderate while sales price growth remained elevated
page
25
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%Ja
n-1
2
Ma
y-1
2
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YTY
% C
hg
. in
Pri
ce
Listing Price Sales Price
SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Price growth up by double digits in all percentiles; strongest gain in the top end
page
26SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
19.6% 20.3% 19.8%21.8%
26.4% 26.4%24.0%
27.3%30.2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100
Percentile
Year-over-Year Price Growth
Price growth slowed faster at top percentile; all percentiles grew by double-digits from a year ago
page
27
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
YTY
% C
hg
. in
Pri
ce
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100
SERIES: Percent Change in Price
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
California Market Velocity and Price Growth
page
28
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
De
c-0
8M
ar-
09
Ju
n-0
9Se
p-0
9D
ec
-09
Ma
r-10
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n-1
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p-1
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ec
-10
Ma
r-1
1Ju
n-1
1Se
p-1
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ec
-11
Ma
r-12
Ju
n-1
2Se
p-1
2D
ec
-12
Ma
r-13
Ju
n-1
3Se
p-1
3D
ec
-13
Ma
r-14
Ju
n-1
4Se
p-1
4D
ec
-14
Ma
r-15
Ju
n-1
5Se
p-1
5D
ec
-15
Ma
r-16
Ju
n-1
6Se
p-1
6D
ec
-16
Ma
r-17
Ju
n-1
7Se
p-1
7D
ec
-17
Ma
r-18
Ju
n-1
8Se
p-1
8D
ec
-18
Ma
r-19
Ju
n-1
9Se
p-1
9D
ec
-19
Ma
r-20
Ju
n-2
0Se
p-2
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-20
-150%
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
Exis
tin
g S
FR
Me
dia
n P
ric
e
Gro
wth
Ma
rke
t V
elo
city
Price Growth Market Velocity (12 month trailing average)
SERIES: Market Velocity & Price Growth
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Mortgage payment had the largest growth since Nov. 2018
page
29
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Ja
n-1
6
Ju
n-1
6
No
v-1
6
Ap
r-1
7
Se
p-1
7
Fe
b-1
8
Ju
l-1
8
De
c-1
8
Ma
y-1
9
Oc
t-1
9
Ma
r-2
0
Au
g-2
0
Ja
n-2
1
YTY
% C
hg
.
California Median Price vs. Mortgage
Payment
Price Growth Mortgage Pmt Growth
3.47%
2.81%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Ja
n-1
5M
ay-1
5Se
p-1
5Ja
n-1
6M
ay-1
6Se
p-1
6Ja
n-1
7M
ay-1
7Se
p-1
7Ja
n-1
8M
ay-1
8Se
p-1
8Ja
n-1
9M
ay-1
9Se
p-1
9Ja
n-2
0M
ay-2
0Se
p-2
0Ja
n-2
1
30 Yr. FRM
SERIES: Price Growth vs. Mortgage Payment Growth
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Mortgage payment had the largest growth since Nov. 2018
page
30
20.6%
11.1%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
YTY
% C
hg
.
California Median Price vs. Mortgage PaymentPrice Growth Mortgage Pmt Growth
SERIES: Price Growth vs. Mortgage Payment Growth
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Inventory &Active Listings
Inventory inched up from the prior month as the home buying season about to kick off
page
32
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
Ja
n-0
5
Se
p-0
5
Ma
y-0
6
Ja
n-0
7
Se
p-0
7
Ma
y-0
8
Ja
n-0
9
Se
p-0
9
Ma
y-1
0
Ja
n-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Ma
y-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Ma
y-1
4
Ja
n-1
5
Se
p-1
5
Ma
y-1
6
Ja
n-1
7
Se
p-1
7
Ma
y-1
8
Ja
n-1
9
Se
p-1
9
Ma
y-2
0
Ja
n-2
1
Mo
nth
s o
f Su
pp
ly
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Feb 2020: 3.6 Months; Feb 2021: 2.0 Months
Unsold Inventory remained low in all regions
page
33
2.12.01.9
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Ja
n-0
9
Ju
l-0
9
Ja
n-1
0
Ju
l-1
0
Ja
n-1
1
Ju
l-1
1
Ja
n-1
2
Ju
l-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Ja
n-1
4
Ju
l-1
4
Ja
n-1
5
Ju
l-1
5
Ja
n-1
6
Ju
l-1
6
Ja
n-1
7
Ju
l-1
7
Ja
n-1
8
Ju
l-1
8
Ja
n-1
9
Ju
l-1
9
Ja
n-2
0
Ju
l-2
0
Ja
n-2
1
Mo
nth
s o
f Su
pp
ly
Bay Area So CA Central Valley
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Active listings still less than half of what the market had a year ago
page
34
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
California Active Listings by Month
2018 2019 2020 2021
Active listings remain suppressed as new listings can’t keep up with pent up demand
page
35
-52.5%-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Ja
n-1
5
Ma
r-1
5
Ma
y-1
5
Ju
l-1
5
Se
p-1
5
No
v-1
5
Ja
n-1
6
Ma
r-1
6
Ma
y-1
6
Ju
l-1
6
Se
p-1
6
No
v-1
6
Ja
n-1
7
Ma
r-1
7
Ma
y-1
7
Ju
l-1
7
Se
p-1
7
No
v-1
7
Ja
n-1
8
Ma
r-1
8
Ma
y-1
8
Ju
l-1
8
Se
p-1
8
No
v-1
8
Ja
n-1
9
Ma
r-1
9
Ma
y-1
9
Ju
l-1
9
Se
p-1
9
No
v-1
9
Ja
n-2
0
Ma
r-2
0
Ma
y-2
0
Ju
l-2
0
Se
p-2
0
No
v-2
0
Ja
n-2
1
Year-over-Year % Chg
SERIES: Active Listing of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Housing supply remains tight in all regions
page
36
4,633
17,868
6,881
1,933 1,5393,278
7,970
3,095
859 826
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
San Francisco
Bay Area
Southern
California
Central Valley Central Coast Far North
Ac
tive
Lis
tin
gs
Feb-20 Feb-21
SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Supply continued to drop as sales remain strong
page
37
16.1%10.5%
-0.3%
22.4%17.3%
-29.2%
-55.4% -55.0% -55.6%
-46.3%-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
San Francisco
Bay Area
Southern
California
Central Valley Central Coast Far North
Ye
ar-
to-Y
ea
r %
Ch
g
Sales Active Listings
February 2021
SERIES: Sales and Listings of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Market Competitiveness
Time on market inched up but remain low
page
39
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Ja
n-0
5
Se
p-0
5
Ma
y-0
6
Ja
n-0
7
Se
p-0
7
Ma
y-0
8
Ja
n-0
9
Se
p-0
9
Ma
y-1
0
Ja
n-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Ma
y-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Ma
y-1
4
Ja
n-1
5
Se
p-1
5
Ma
y-1
6
Ja
n-1
7
Se
p-1
7
Ma
y-1
8
Ja
n-1
9
Se
p-1
9
Ma
y-2
0
Ja
n-2
1
Da
ys
on
Ma
rke
t
SERIES: Median Time of Market of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
California, February 2020: 23.0 Days; February 2021: 10.0 Days
Median time on market lower than last year for all percentiles
page
40SERIES: Median Time on Market of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
26 2523
18 1816 15
19
35
22
108 8 9
1310
11
16
32
10
0
10
20
30
40
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 Total
Da
ys
on
Ma
rke
t
Percentile
Median Time on Market
Feb-20 Feb-21
Sales-to-list price ratio signaling a very competitive market
page
41
100.0%
101.2% 101.2% 101.0%
100.0%
101.0%
100.1% 100.0%
98.0%
101.0%
96%
97%
98%
99%
100%
101%
102%
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 Total
California Sales-to-List Price Ratio by Quintile
Feb-20 Feb-21
SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Median sales vs. list price growth $1M+ properties
page
42
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Ja
n-0
9
Ju
n-0
9
No
v-0
9
Ap
r-10
Se
p-1
0
Fe
b-1
1
Ju
l-1
1
De
c-1
1
Ma
y-1
2
Oc
t-12
Ma
r-13
Au
g-1
3
Ja
n-1
4
Ju
n-1
4
No
v-1
4
Ap
r-15
Se
p-1
5
Fe
b-1
6
Ju
l-1
6
De
c-1
6
Ma
y-1
7
Oc
t-17
Ma
r-18
Au
g-1
8
Ja
n-1
9
Ju
n-1
9
No
v-1
9
Ap
r-20
Se
p-2
0
Fe
b-2
1
YTY
% C
hg
. in
Pri
ce
California Median Sales vs. List Price Growth
Listing Price Sales Price
SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Reduced-Price Listings
page
43
Share of Listings with a Reduced Price: 17.8%; Median Reduction Amount: -4.9%
-10%-9%-8%-7%-6%-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
1/1
/20
10
6/1
/20
10
11
/1/2
01
0
4/1
/20
11
9/1
/20
11
2/1
/20
12
7/1
/20
12
12
/1/2
01
2
5/1
/20
13
10
/1/2
01
3
3/1
/20
14
8/1
/20
14
1/1
/20
15
6/1
/20
15
11
/1/2
01
5
4/1
/20
16
9/1
/20
16
2/1
/20
17
7/1
/20
17
12
/1/2
01
7
5/1
/20
18
10
/1/2
01
8
3/1
/20
19
8/1
/20
19
1/1
/20
20
6/1
/20
20
11
/1/2
02
0
Share Reduced Median Reduction
SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Growth in Reduced-Price Listings
page
44
Growth in Share of Listings with a Reduced Price: -9.6%
Growth in Median Reduction Amount: 0.6%
-0.4%
-0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
1/1
/2015
4/1
/2015
7/1
/2015
10
/1/2
01
5
1/1
/2016
4/1
/2016
7/1
/2016
10/1
/2016
1/1
/2017
4/1
/2017
7/1
/2017
10/1
/2017
1/1
/2018
4/1
/2018
7/1
/2018
10/1
/2018
1/1
/2019
4/1
/2019
7/1
/2019
10/1
/2019
1/1
/2020
4/1
/2020
7/1
/2020
10/1
/2020
1/1
/2021
Share Reduced Median Reduction
SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Thank You