california transportation planning conference los angeles, california december 2015 brian d. taylor,...
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California Transportation Planning ConferenceLos Angeles, California
December 2015
Brian D. Taylor, PhD, FAICPProfessor of Urban Planning
Director, Institute of Transportation StudiesDirector, Lewis Center for Regional Policy Studies
UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs
Institute of Transportation StudiesUCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs
THE FUTURE OF TRANSPORTATIONLOOKING BACK TO LOOK FORWARD
Roadmap
• Assertion– We are in the midst of game-changing
transformations in transportation• Problem
– We are much better at planning for course corrections than revolutions
• Lessons– Reflections on how things (travel, and how we
plan for it) changed in past transport revolutions
Five transport revolutionsMovement of People1. Horsecars (~1860)2. Streetcars (~1890)3. Automobiles (~1910)4. Airplanes (~1930)5. Real-time, shared mobility
– TNCs, carshare, bikeshare– Reduced need for terminal
capacity (parking)– Shift from fixed-asset to
incremental mobility– Will we own autonomous
vehicles, or subscribe to them?
Movement of Goods1. Canals (~1800)2. Railroads (~1830)3. Trucks (~1910)4. Airplanes (~1930)5. Real-time, shared mobility
– Logistics, supply-chain management revolution
– Smaller loads, faster and more frequent shipments, smaller and bigger vehicles
– “Free drone delivery”?
Some things to note about these revolutions
• All have been driven largely or entirely by the private sector– Example: Decades of public sector ITS programs
have been swamped in a few short years by private investment in ICT-based mobility and automation
Some things to note about these revolutions
• Government’s most important roles over the years have been to:– Address market failures
• Collective action problems• Environmental externalities
– Protect the public interest• Safety• Equity
Some things to note about these revolutions
• Public sector role was reactive early on…– Regulate: Scramble to address the problems of
proliferation• Though more proactive later…
– Support: Address collective action problems and environmental externalities
– Protect: Prop up older, struggling systems with subsidies and regulations on new competitors
Some things to note about these revolutions
• There was a transport revolution every 30 years or so from the late 18th to the early 20th centuries– But mostly incremental changes for the past 80
years– Why so little transport change during a time of
such fundamental change?
Some things to note about these revolutions• Trains, cars, and planes were obvious
breakthroughs – can the same be said for tech-enabled mobility?– Are things like bikeshare, Uber, and automated
vehicles really a transport revolution?• I think so
– Substantial, and waxing private investment– Enables us to not only do things differently, but also to
do different things– Enables changes in how households and firms will
organize their activities in both time and space
So where will this all end up down the road?
No, I mean WAY down the road
“Beam me up Scotty”
What characterizes Star Trek-based travel?
• Very flexible, reliable, dynamic, adaptive, cheap, sustainable– Fast (instantaneous)– Reliable (except when under Klingon attack)– Cheap (as far as we can tell)– Dynamic, Adaptive (later versions don’t even
require a transporter room)– No friction of distance (who cares about location,
location, location?)– Sustainable (dilithium crystals)
On our way to Transporters, where are we headed in the meantime?• More flexible, reliable, dynamic, adaptive,
cheap, sustainable– Instant real-time access– Reliable access– Flexible routing– Flexible time of arrival/departure– Mid-route deviations– Low and/or declining costs
• To the user• To society (externalities)
How will modes fare in the future?• What is Less flexible, reliable, dynamic,
adaptive, cheap?– Ships– Rail– Fixed-route, fixed-schedule public transit– Most everyone owning a car or truck?
• All are well-established– Continued growth will depend on how flexible,
reliable, dynamic, adaptive, cheap, and sustainable they can become
How will modes fare in the future?• What are More flexible, reliable, dynamic,
adaptive, cheap?– Smart mobile devices – Walking– Biking– Motor vehicles?
• Trend toward incremental, shared mobility– Planes?
• Drones
Lessons for the public sector in this current revolution
• Focus on core roles• Addressing market failures
– Collective action problems• Flexible, adaptable infrastructure
– Environmental externalities• Incentivize privately rational decisions that result in
collectively sustainable outcomes
• Protecting the public interest– Safety, fairness
• Seek to equalize acccess
• These are really, really important
Lessons for the public sector to thrive in this current revolution
• Leave big bets to the private sector– Eschew…
• Regulatory capture• Big, inflexible investments• Betting on particular technologies
– Embrace• Flexible transport plans and infrastructure that will
perform well in a wide array of possible futures• Increasingly contingent, varied, and real-time travel
Small Ball Revolution: flexible, reliable, dynamic, adaptive, cheap, sustainable
Wait… You didn’t say anything about Millennials
• Two quick takeaways– Good news, bad news…1. Some Millennials are embracing car-light
lifestyles• But many more are driving less because they are
struggling
2. Millennials are more likely than older adults to live less auto-oriented urban areas
• But many more are choosing to live in the most sprawling, oriented land use types
The four travel types of young adults
DriversLong-distance
Trekkers
Multimodals Car-less
Source: Kelcie Ralph
Public Transit Use by Traveler Type
Driver
Trekker
Multimodal
Car-less
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Never
Never
Never
Never
Weekly
Weekly
Weekly
Weekly
Sometimes
Sometimes
Frequency of using public transit by traveler type
So how many of each traveler type?
In 2009…
Drivers78-80%
Long-distanceTrekkers
3-4%
Multimodals
3-5%
Without-cars13-15%
In 2009:
Source: Kelcie Ralph
1995_x000d_ to 2001
2001 _x000d_to 2009
1995_x000d_ to 2009
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Change in traveler type by year
Driver Trekker Multimodal Car-less
Perc
enta
ge p
oin
t ch
ange
Source: Kelcie Ralph
1 in 6 young adults is Car-Less(1 in 24 are Multi-Modals)
Developing a typology of
neighborhood types in the
U.S.
Residential Location by Age and Neighborhood Type
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
15%
23%
18%
12%
19%
6%
8%
21%
28%
17%
14%
12%
4% 4%
% o
f Age
Gro
up
□ Young Adults (20 to 34) □ Older Adults (35 to 64 )Source: US Census (2010)
Absolute Growth in Youth Population byResidential Location, 2000 to 2010
% Point Change in Youth Residential Location2000 to 2010
