Dr. Jeffrey Mount, Senior Fellow Public Policy Institute of California

California Water Issues: The Drought Edition

Floods, droughts and lawsuits: it’s the way we get things done

Biologist: Peter Moyle, UC Davis Economists: Ellen Hanak, PPIC* Ariel Dinar, UC Riverside Richard Howitt, UC Davis Engineer: Jay Lund, UC Davis* Geologist: Jeffrey Mount, PPIC/UC Davis Lawyers: Brian Gray, UC Hastings Buzz Thompson, Stanford

*Lead authors 2

Supported with funding from S.D. Bechtel, Jr. Foundation, The David and Lucile Packard Foundation, Pisces Foundation, Resources Legacy Fund,

Santa Ana Watershed Project Authority

Part 1: Understanding California Water

§ Surprisingly abundant

§ Extreme variation in space and time

§ Adaptation to climate extremes

§ Adapting to change

3

Abundant Water, Diverse Climate and Geography

4

Abundant Water, Diverse Climate and Geography

5 Courtesy Mike Dettinger, USGS

Adaptation: Surface Storage

6

Adaptation: Surface Storage

7

Adaptation: Groundwater Storage

8

Faunt et al., 2009

Adaptation: Groundwater Storage

9

More than 70 MAF Overdraft in San Joaquin Valley

Adaptation: Distribution Systems

10

Adaptation: Distribution Systems

11

Adaptation: Distribution Systems

12 The Weak Link: Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

Adaptation: Ecosystems

13

Adaptation: Ecosystems

14

7 7 7

14 18 31

50 53

69

44 38

22

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1989 1995 2010

Reasonably Secure Special Concern Listed

Extinct

California’s native freshwater fishes in decline

Adaptation: Change

§  Changing Climate and Sea Level

§  Changing Demand

§  Changing Ecosystems

15

California Average Temperature January-September

Part II: From Drought to Myths

•  Why Myths? •  Simplify issues

•  Create “common knowledge based on common sense”

•  Powerful communication tool

•  Usually some basis in fact

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Myth 1: California is running out of water

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But Human Uses are Declining

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0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1960 1967 1972 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Gro

ss w

ater

use

, mill

ion

acre

feet

Total

Agricultural

Urban

Economic efficiency of water use continues to rise while use goes down

19

4 times higher

2 times higher

half as high

Source: Data from DWR, DOF, and US Bureau of Economic Analysis (as cited in Hanak et al, Water and California’s Economy, 2012)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

1967

= 1

00

State GDP per unit of water used

State GDP per capita

Water use per capita

We are not running out of water, just cheap water

§  We are adapting to increasing scarcity

§  We are increasing reliability in large urban areas

§  But difficult adjustments ahead in agricultural sector as water prices rise

20

Myth 2: We Can Conserve Our Way Out of CA’s Water Problems

21

Reality: Conservation is important, but its effectiveness can be overstated

•  New technology and changing water use habits will help, particularly in urban settings

•  Farmers are becoming more economically efficient with water

•  But conservation does not always yield “new” water, because “excess” water is often already reused

22

Large landscape

11%

Commercial 14%

Industrial 6%

Energy production

2%

Residential - interior

34%

Residential - exterior

33%

9.1 million acre feet

Urban Use

Myth 3: Environmental regulation is causing California's water scarcity

23 Delta Smelt

Salmon

Depends on how you define “environmental water”

Statewide Annual Gross Water Use by Sector Basis in Fact

§  Half of water use is allocated to the environment

§  Meeting habitat and water quality standards is a significant constraint

§  The amount allocated to the environment has been increasing over the last 20+ years

§  But….

24

Environment (Including

North Coast)

Agriculture

Urban

41 maf (50 %) 33 maf

(40%)

9 maf (10%)

Most environmental water doesn’t compete with other uses

25

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Central Valley Lahontan San Francisco Bay

Central Coast South Coast Colorado River

Gro

ss w

ater

use

, mill

ion

acre

feet

Environment

Agriculture

Urban

20 maf (33%)

32 maf (53%)

8.5 maf (14%)

Gross Water Use in the Interconnected Portions of California (excludes North Coast)

Myth 4: The California Craft Brewing Industry is Hosed (it’s time to move)

26

Lake Oroville

No You’re Not (i.e. don’t move)

§  Urban breweries tend to have the most resilient supplies (albeit growing in cost)

§  North Coast region traditionally wet (but occasionally unreliable)

§  Greatest risk is for rural breweries lacking diversified water portfolio

§  Wastewater an issue for everyone

27

Ritchie, 2012

Craft Brewer’s California Water Footprint (NOTE: Preliminary estimates only)

§  Not Very Much*: –  3M bbl = 93M gal –  6 gal/gal processing =

558M gal –  Total 651M gal/year =

2003 acre-ft

§  Compare Water Use: –  Per capita 150 gal/day =

1/6 acre-ft/year –  Typical acre crop uses 3(+/-)

acre-ft/year

§  Equivalent Usage: –  12,000 people –  640 acre almond orchard –  4.4 hours of LA water use

28

*data sources: Ritchie, 2012, T. McCormick pers comm.

But…Craft Brewers Total Water Footprint (NOTE: Preliminary estimates only)

§  It’s a Pretty Big Number –  55 lbs of barley and 1.3 lbs

hops/barrel = 169M lbs* –  Annual yield/acre = 1 ton** –  Water use = 2 acre-ft** 169,000 acre-ft = 590 gal/gal beer

§  California craft brewers use enough water to supply a million people

29 * T. McCormick pers. comm., ** UC Extension values

From myth to nuanced reality

1.  California is not running out water, just cheap water.

2.  We cannot conserve our way out of this problem, but it helps.

3.  The environment is not taking all the water, but it is taking an increasing share.

4.  You are not hosed. California is a great place for sustainable craft brewing and unlike most other industries, you import 99% of your water from out of state.

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Conclusion

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