calpine july 22, 2003 wyoming pipeline authority calpine corporation key issues for natural gas and...

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July 22, 2003 CALPINE Wyoming Pipeline Authority Calpine Corporation KEY ISSUES FOR NATURAL GAS AND POWER COLIN COE DIRECTOR, FUELS

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Page 1: CALPINE July 22, 2003 Wyoming Pipeline Authority Calpine Corporation KEY ISSUES FOR NATURAL GAS AND POWER COLIN COE DIRECTOR, FUELS

July 22, 2003

CALPINE

Wyoming Pipeline Authority

Calpine CorporationKEY ISSUES FOR NATURAL GAS AND POWER

COLIN COEDIRECTOR, FUELS

Page 2: CALPINE July 22, 2003 Wyoming Pipeline Authority Calpine Corporation KEY ISSUES FOR NATURAL GAS AND POWER COLIN COE DIRECTOR, FUELS

July 22, 2003R060308 2

CALPINE

CALPINE OVERVIEWCALPINE OVERVIEW

Page 3: CALPINE July 22, 2003 Wyoming Pipeline Authority Calpine Corporation KEY ISSUES FOR NATURAL GAS AND POWER COLIN COE DIRECTOR, FUELS

July 22, 2003R060308 3

CALPINE

FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENT

Certain of the information discussed in this presentation may contain forward-looking statements regarding future events or the future financial performance of Calpine Corporation. We wish to caution you that these statements are only estimates and that actual events or results may differ materially. We refer you to the documents the Company files from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission, specifically the Company’s most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q. These documents contain and identify important factors that could cause the Company’s actual future results to differ materially from those contained in such forward-looking statements.

Page 4: CALPINE July 22, 2003 Wyoming Pipeline Authority Calpine Corporation KEY ISSUES FOR NATURAL GAS AND POWER COLIN COE DIRECTOR, FUELS

July 22, 2003R060308 4

CALPINE

FOCUSED STRATEGY

North America Power Markets

Modern, Gas-Fired Plants

Wholesale Markets

Balanced Gas / Power Portfolio

Page 5: CALPINE July 22, 2003 Wyoming Pipeline Authority Calpine Corporation KEY ISSUES FOR NATURAL GAS AND POWER COLIN COE DIRECTOR, FUELS

July 22, 2003R060308 5

CALPINE

To Paraphrase Mark Twain….“rumors of our death …”

2001 provides a challenging year:

Weak Economy – poor spark spreadsThe Enron shock affects confidenceEquity Financing option vanishesDebt Financing Challenges

But we have survived – “what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger”

Page 6: CALPINE July 22, 2003 Wyoming Pipeline Authority Calpine Corporation KEY ISSUES FOR NATURAL GAS AND POWER COLIN COE DIRECTOR, FUELS

July 22, 2003R060308 6

CALPINE

Spark Spreads – an overview

Efficiency Factor = Heat Rate 7000 HRt vs 10,000 HRt per hour Gas price x my HRt = my cost 7000 HRt x $5.00 = $35 MW If market is a 10,000 HRt = $50 MW My “spark spread” is $50 – 35 =$15 $15/MW/hr x 24 x 500 MW = $180k 84,000 MMBtu/d vs 120,000/day

Page 7: CALPINE July 22, 2003 Wyoming Pipeline Authority Calpine Corporation KEY ISSUES FOR NATURAL GAS AND POWER COLIN COE DIRECTOR, FUELS

July 22, 2003R060308 7

CALPINE

FINANCIAL GROWTH

19,046 $7,458

Page 8: CALPINE July 22, 2003 Wyoming Pipeline Authority Calpine Corporation KEY ISSUES FOR NATURAL GAS AND POWER COLIN COE DIRECTOR, FUELS

July 22, 2003R060308 8

CALPINE

LONG-TERM OUTLOOKREMAINS ATTRACTIVE

Electricity is a Vital Component of Our Society

Consumption is Up (1)

4.11% - 2002 Over 2001 3.48% - YTD 2003 Over Same Period in 2002

Significant New Project Cancellations

Continued Pressure on Aging, Polluting Fleet

Prices Trending Upward

(1) Source: Edison Electric Institute

Page 9: CALPINE July 22, 2003 Wyoming Pipeline Authority Calpine Corporation KEY ISSUES FOR NATURAL GAS AND POWER COLIN COE DIRECTOR, FUELS

July 22, 2003R060308 9

CALPINE

CALPINE’S GROWING PORTFOLIO

Net Megawatts

Assumes No New Projects

3,3555,849

11,130

19,05023,250

27,15529,940

4,400

13,400

15,200

9,750

6,6902,785

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

In Operation In Construction

7,755

19,249

26,330

28,80029,940 29,94029,940

Page 10: CALPINE July 22, 2003 Wyoming Pipeline Authority Calpine Corporation KEY ISSUES FOR NATURAL GAS AND POWER COLIN COE DIRECTOR, FUELS

July 22, 2003R060308 10

CALPINE

CALPINE’S POWER PORTFOLIO

In Operation

3

1

1

1

12

3

1

2

1

39

1

1

1

1

11

2

1

1

1

2

1

2

1

2

1

1

3

4

2

1

1

3

1

1

86

Under Construction

18

1

11

Page 11: CALPINE July 22, 2003 Wyoming Pipeline Authority Calpine Corporation KEY ISSUES FOR NATURAL GAS AND POWER COLIN COE DIRECTOR, FUELS

July 22, 2003R060308 11

CALPINE

CALPINE CORPORATION —A PREMIER POWER COMPANY

(1) Source: Platts’ “202 Independent Power Companies”

23,929

3,671

Calpine ExelonGeneration

NRG Energy PSEGGlobal/Power

Mirant

Largest U.S. Independent Power Companies (1)

27,600

20,686

17,831

15,006 14,441

Coal CCGT Other

Page 12: CALPINE July 22, 2003 Wyoming Pipeline Authority Calpine Corporation KEY ISSUES FOR NATURAL GAS AND POWER COLIN COE DIRECTOR, FUELS

July 22, 2003R060308 12

CALPINE

CALPINE’S GROWINGGAS CONSUMPTION

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Mmbtu/Day

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Year

* 2004 Consumption Approximately Equal to 22 mmtpy

*

Page 13: CALPINE July 22, 2003 Wyoming Pipeline Authority Calpine Corporation KEY ISSUES FOR NATURAL GAS AND POWER COLIN COE DIRECTOR, FUELS

July 22, 2003R060308 13

CALPINE

CALPINE’S GAS PORTFOLIO

1 tcf of Proved Reserves

Provides Hedge to Fixed-Price Revenue Contracts

Exploit Proved Reserves

Value in Excess of $1.3 Billion

Active Producer Services Group

Page 14: CALPINE July 22, 2003 Wyoming Pipeline Authority Calpine Corporation KEY ISSUES FOR NATURAL GAS AND POWER COLIN COE DIRECTOR, FUELS

July 22, 2003R060308 14

CALPINE

CURRENT CALPINE GAS RESERVES & PRODUCTION LEVELS

950 Bcfe 278 Mmcfe/day

Page 15: CALPINE July 22, 2003 Wyoming Pipeline Authority Calpine Corporation KEY ISSUES FOR NATURAL GAS AND POWER COLIN COE DIRECTOR, FUELS

July 22, 2003R060308 15

CALPINE

ECONOMIC AND REGULATORY BARRIERS IN MEETING DEMANDS FOR NATURAL GAS

Capital Markets — Credit

Commodity Markets — Indexes

Supply/Demand — Perspectives

Page 16: CALPINE July 22, 2003 Wyoming Pipeline Authority Calpine Corporation KEY ISSUES FOR NATURAL GAS AND POWER COLIN COE DIRECTOR, FUELS

July 22, 2003R060308 16

CALPINE

CAPITAL MARKETS — CREDIT

Tightened Capital Markets

Credit Downgrades

Increased Credit Requirements

FERC Actions

NAESB Efforts

Pipeline Expansions

Page 17: CALPINE July 22, 2003 Wyoming Pipeline Authority Calpine Corporation KEY ISSUES FOR NATURAL GAS AND POWER COLIN COE DIRECTOR, FUELS

July 22, 2003R060308 17

CALPINE

COMMODITY MARKETS — INDEXES

Fewer Participants

Reduced Transparency and Confidence

Price Indexes

Page 18: CALPINE July 22, 2003 Wyoming Pipeline Authority Calpine Corporation KEY ISSUES FOR NATURAL GAS AND POWER COLIN COE DIRECTOR, FUELS

July 22, 2003R060308 18

CALPINE

GAS PRODUCTION -THAT 70’S SHOW

Gas: Enough for Present Customers,but How About the New Ones?

— Nation’s Business, July 1971

Natural Gas Users Howl Over Shortages

— Business Week; November 17, 1973

We’re Running Out of Gas

— The New York Times Magazine; March 19, 1972

Page 19: CALPINE July 22, 2003 Wyoming Pipeline Authority Calpine Corporation KEY ISSUES FOR NATURAL GAS AND POWER COLIN COE DIRECTOR, FUELS

July 22, 2003R060308 19

CALPINE

U.S. 2002 TOTAL GAS CONSUMPTION

Total U.S. Natural Deliveries January-November 2002 (U.S. EIA)

Page 20: CALPINE July 22, 2003 Wyoming Pipeline Authority Calpine Corporation KEY ISSUES FOR NATURAL GAS AND POWER COLIN COE DIRECTOR, FUELS

July 22, 2003R060308 20

CALPINE

U.S. POWER MARKET – GAS FOCUS

Huge Market

Growing Demand

Inefficient Plants

Environmental Concerns

Page 21: CALPINE July 22, 2003 Wyoming Pipeline Authority Calpine Corporation KEY ISSUES FOR NATURAL GAS AND POWER COLIN COE DIRECTOR, FUELS

July 22, 2003R060308 21

CALPINE

EMISSIONS

UnitsNatural Gas(combined-cycle)

New CoalPercent Reduction(% gas cleaner than coal)

Plant Heat Rate (net) Btu/kWh 7,000 8,800

Nitrogen Oxide (NOx)lb/mmBtulb/mwh

0.00920.064

0.070.616

86.9%89.5%

Sulfur Dioxide (SO2)lb/mmBtulb/mwh

0.00060.0042

0.161.4080

99.6%99.7%

Carbon Dioxide (CO2)lb/mmBtulb/mwh

118.9832

2061,813

42.3%54.1%

Carbon Monoxide (CO)lb/mmBtulb/mwh

0.00670.047

0.121.0560

94.4%95.56%

Mercury (Hg)lb/mmBtulb/mwh

00

0.00000230.000020

100.0%100.0%

Respirable Particulates (PM)

lb/mmBtu 0.015 0.018 16.7%

Page 22: CALPINE July 22, 2003 Wyoming Pipeline Authority Calpine Corporation KEY ISSUES FOR NATURAL GAS AND POWER COLIN COE DIRECTOR, FUELS

July 22, 2003R060308 22

CALPINE

CONCLUSIONS

Gas Fired Electric Generation Will Grow

Natural Gas Production Must Increase

Pipeline Infrastructure Must be Proactive

Creative Gas Contracting Needed

Page 23: CALPINE July 22, 2003 Wyoming Pipeline Authority Calpine Corporation KEY ISSUES FOR NATURAL GAS AND POWER COLIN COE DIRECTOR, FUELS

July 22, 2003

CALPINE

CALPINE