cambiamento di temperatura globale 100 0.074 0.018 50 0.128 0.026 warmest 12 years:...

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ambiamento di temperatura globa ambiamento di temperatura globa 100 0.0740.018 50 0.1280.026 Warmest 12 years: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006 , 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000 Period Rate Years /decade periodo degli ultimi 50 anni periodo degli ultimi 50 anni e’ il piu’ caldo degli e’ il piu’ caldo degli ultimi 1300 anni. ultimi 1300 anni.

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Page 1: Cambiamento di temperatura globale 100 0.074 0.018 50 0.128 0.026 Warmest 12 years: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000 Period

Cambiamento di temperatura globaleCambiamento di temperatura globale

100 0.0740.018

50 0.1280.026

Warmest 12 years:1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,20

06, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,20

00

Period Rate

Years /decade

Il periodo degli ultimi 50 anniIl periodo degli ultimi 50 annie’ il piu’ caldo deglie’ il piu’ caldo degli

ultimi 1300 anni.ultimi 1300 anni.

Page 2: Cambiamento di temperatura globale 100 0.074 0.018 50 0.128 0.026 Warmest 12 years: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000 Period

Variabilita’ naturale(ENSO, NAO)

Attivita’Attivita’vulcanicavulcanica

Variazione dellaVariazione della

radiazione solareradiazione solare

Gas serraGas serra

AerosolAerosolatmosfericoatmosferico Il clima della terra puo’Il clima della terra puo’

cambiare a causa dicambiare a causa difattori umani o fattorifattori umani o fattori

naturalinaturali

Uso del territorioUso del territorio

FattoriFattoriumaniumani

FattoriFattorinaturalinaturali

Page 3: Cambiamento di temperatura globale 100 0.074 0.018 50 0.128 0.026 Warmest 12 years: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000 Period

Variazione della concentrazione di gas

serra in atmosfera

N2ON2O

CO2CO2

CH4CH4

N2ON2O

CH4CH4

CO2CO2

La concentrazione atmosferica diLa concentrazione atmosferica digas serra e’ maggiore che negli ultimi gas serra e’ maggiore che negli ultimi 650000 anni e continua ad aumentare 650000 anni e continua ad aumentare

sopratutto a causa dell’uso di sopratutto a causa dell’uso di combustibili fossili e di combustibili fossili e di

alcune pratiche agricole.alcune pratiche agricole.

Page 4: Cambiamento di temperatura globale 100 0.074 0.018 50 0.128 0.026 Warmest 12 years: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000 Period

Settembre 1979 Settembre 2005 Settembre 2007

Estensione della calotta Artica

La linea rosa indica la estensione di ghiaccio media di Settembre dal 1979

Page 5: Cambiamento di temperatura globale 100 0.074 0.018 50 0.128 0.026 Warmest 12 years: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000 Period

Estensione della calotta Artica

1 Settembre 1979 1 Settembre 2005 9 Agosto 2007

Page 6: Cambiamento di temperatura globale 100 0.074 0.018 50 0.128 0.026 Warmest 12 years: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000 Period

Scioglimento di ghiacciai alpiniScioglimento di ghiacciai alpini

Pizzo Bernina, 1978Pizzo Bernina, 1978

Pizzo Bernina, 2003Pizzo Bernina, 2003

Pizzo PalPizzo Palúú - 1978 - 1978

Pizzo PalPizzo Palúú - 2003 - 2003

Page 7: Cambiamento di temperatura globale 100 0.074 0.018 50 0.128 0.026 Warmest 12 years: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000 Period

Realta’ oRealta’ ofantascienza?fantascienza?

2002: Collasso della2002: Collasso dellaLarsen-B Ice ShelfLarsen-B Ice Shelf

Page 8: Cambiamento di temperatura globale 100 0.074 0.018 50 0.128 0.026 Warmest 12 years: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000 Period

IdentificazioneIdentificazionedell’effetto umanodell’effetto umanosul riscaldamentosul riscaldamento

globaleglobale

All ForcingsAll Forcings

Natural ForcingsNatural ForcingsIl contributo umano al forcing

radiativo dal 1750 e’ moltomaggiore di quello naturale

Page 9: Cambiamento di temperatura globale 100 0.074 0.018 50 0.128 0.026 Warmest 12 years: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000 Period

Distribuzione geografica del cambiamentofuturo di temperatura e precipitazione

Il Mediterraneo e’ una “climate change Hot-spot”

Annual precipitation change

BOREAL SUMMERBOREAL SUMMER

BOREAL WINTERBOREAL WINTER

Temperature change DJF

Temperature change JJA

Scenario A1B, 20 modelli, 2080-2099

Page 10: Cambiamento di temperatura globale 100 0.074 0.018 50 0.128 0.026 Warmest 12 years: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000 Period

Proiezioni di cambiamento di temperaturae precipitazione sull’Italia

10 Modelli regionali, 2071-2100 vs. 1961-1990 (°C), scenario A2

Inverno Estate

Temperatura

Precipitazione

San Joaquin (Vernalis, CA) Area = 35,058 km 2 R ave = 1.29 A = 0.026 B = -0.022 C = 0.995

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