cambioclimaticoyhidrologia - amazon watersamazonwaters.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/mino... ·...
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CAMBIO CLIMATICO Y HIDROLOGIA
Mino Sorribas Ingeniero Ambiental Hydrology Scien6st
Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)
Ins6tuto de Pesquisas Hidráulicas (IPH)
16 de Junio de 2016
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Como el cambio climatico puede afectar la hidrología de la Amazónia?
- Balance de agua - Caudales de los rios - Dinámica de inundaciones
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Simulación Hidrológica Modelo de Grandes Bacias (MGB-IPH) [Collischonn et al., 2007; Paiva et al., 2011, 2013]
Mini cuencas Modelo de Elevacion SRTM Rede de rios
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Cenarios Climá6cos Futuros (2070 -‐ 2100) 5 General Circulation Models (GCMs) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ‘High-emission' scenario RCP8.5 – Cenário Pessimísta
CNRM-CM5 - Centre National de Recherches météorologiques; Centre Européen de recherche et Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique GFDL-ESM2M - NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory HADGEM2-CC - Met Office Hadley Centre MRI-CGCM3 - Meteorological Research Institute MIROC-5 - Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute (The University of Tokyo); National Institute for Environmental Studies;
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LAS SIMULACIONES DE CAMBIO CLIMATICOS
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Cambios en Precipitación (Lluvia)
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Cambios en Evapotranspiración
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Cambios en Escorrentía Local
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CAMBIOS EN CAUDALES DE LOS RIOS
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CAMBIOS EN CAUDALES DE LOS RIOS
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CAMBIOS EN CAUDALES DE LOS RIOS
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CAMBIOS EN CAUDALES DE LOS RIOS PROMEDIO
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CAMBIOS EN CAUDALES DE LOS RIOS LOW WATERS
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CAMBIOS EN CAUDALES DE LOS RIOS HIGH WATERS
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HIGH WATERS LOW WATERS PROMEDIO
CAMBIOS EN LA EXTENSIÓN INUNDACIÓN
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Anual Mean Anual Min Anual Max
Mean Change (%)
Std (%)
Interannual CV (%)
Mean Change (%)
Std (%)
Interannual CV (%)
Mean Change (%) Std (%)
Interannual CV (%)
Amazon -‐2.9 10.1 7.5 -‐9.9 8.6 8.3 3.5 13.7 9.8 Peru +9.0 5.2 8.9 -‐0.7 6.3 9.1 18.3 7.6 11.8 Bolivia -‐6.1 20.6 17.6 -‐12.8 10.3 9.7 -‐0.2 23.5 20.3 Central -‐6.5 13.7 7.8 -‐15.9 11.2 11.1 3.6 16.7 8.4 Lower -‐6.6 8.6 5.2 -‐4.4 2.1 1.9 -‐5.0 14.4 7.6
CAMBIOS EN LA EXTENSIÓN INUNDACIÓN
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Resumen / Conclusiones -‐ Las proyecciones de los cambios en el clima-‐hidrologia Amazónica muestran
diferentes patrones en este y el oeste
-‐ Las incerRdumbres en los modelos climáRcos deben ser considerados
-‐ Oeste: más húmedo y Este: más seco
-‐ Aumento de caudal (medio y máximo) en los ríos que drenan los Andes en el oeste del Amazonas. Como resultado, un aumento en la extensión de las áreas inundadas (medio y máximo) en los grandes ríos en Perú y Solimões
-‐ Reducción de los caudales en las cuencas de este, sobre todo en la estación de aguas bajas. Reducción de la extensión de las áreas inundadas durante las aguas bajo en la Amazonia central y inferior
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Resumo / Conclusões
-‐ Lo que sigue?
• Inves6gaciones para mejorar las predicciones hidrológicas y climatológicas en el Amazonas
• Los impactos en el servicios ambientales
• Mejorar los estudios hidrológicos en cuencas o sistemas par6culares
• Otros estudios hidrológico-‐hidraulicos: impactos de presas?
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Castello et al. 2013 The vulnerability of Amazon freshwater ecosystems Conserva=on Le?ers 6:4 July/August (2013) 217–229
Presas planejadas
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hdps://www.ufrgs.br/hge/ (portuguese)
hdps://www.ufrgs.br/lsh/ (english)
IPH-‐Hydro Tools -‐> GIS Tools for hydrology
Gracias! [email protected]
New features! – FREE (fully translated portuguese to english)
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Ph.D. and M.Sc. candidates • Mino Sorribas - Tracking Amazon waters • Paulo – Modelling the La Plata basin • Diogo – Sediment production and transport modelling on the Amazon. • Vinicius & Fernando– Operational hydrologic forecasting • Sly – Past Amazon hydrological extremes and mapping flood and
drought risks • Bibiana – Hydrology and vulnerability of South American biomes. • Ayan – Towards physically based modelling with MGB-IPH • João Paulo – Altimetry data assimilation for river modelling • Alice– Remote Sensing and Hydraulics of floodplain Lakes • Germano – South America Drought Monitoring
Leading scientists: Walter Collischonn, Rodrigo Paiva, Juan Martin Bravo, Anderson Ruhoff, Fernando Fan, Carlos Tucci
Current researches at HGE