Campaign Strategies & Tactics: The Road to the White House

Lessons from the 2012 Presidential Election

Why Study Campaigns?

• Learn about how to win elections• Learn about a potential administration:

– Campaign reveals the initial policy agenda.– Top campaign staff often work later in the White

House.– Campaign reveals candidate’s leadership style,

especially in communications.

The Long & Winding Road in American Campaigns

• Presidential system• Single member

plurality /Winner take all system

• Two dominant parties

• Two-stage process• Independents

Campaign Organizations

• Large specialized professional staff– Campaign manager– Media relations &

strategic communications

– Scheduling– Advance work– Issue research– Opposition research

– Speech writing– Advertising– Fundraising– Finances– Accounting– Legal advise– Voter targeting &

turnout– Volunteer coordination– Polling

Polling

• Importance• Impact of New Technologies

Polling

• By candidate organizations– Provides valuable information for strategy &

tactics

• By news media– Provides information on the status of the race

itself– Tends to reinforce “horse-race” approach to

election coverage, at the expense of policy positions

Grassroots Operation

• Field offices in every state.

• Combined use of electronic media and door-to-door canvassing (“high tech with high touch”)

Campaign Strategy

• Strategy is a road map or blue print• Winston’s definition: “Achieving a

desired outcome using a structured approach based on understanding existing and potential environmental elements and your opponent’s potential strategies” (p. 24).

The Road Itself: Structural Factors

• Nomination vs. general election strategies

• Voter turnout• Geography• Incumbency

Race for the 2012 GOP Nomination

• One of the crowd• Mitt Romney as apparent frontrunner– Had name recognition,

donors & political organization

– Has experience in both private & public spheres

– Has personal wealth

• But he was not alone…

Crowded Lanes

• Mitt Romney• Ron Paul• Newt Gingrich• Rick Santorum• Rick Perry• Michele Bachmann• Herman Cain• Jon Huntsman• Tim Pawlenty

Crowded Lanes

• Mitt Romney• Ron Paul• Newt Gingrich• Rick Santorum• Rick Perry• Michele Bachmann• Herman Cain• Jon Huntsman

Crowded Lanes

• Mitt Romney• Ron Paul• Newt Gingrich• Rick Santorum• Rick Perry• Michele Bachmann• Herman Cain

Crowded Lanes

• Mitt Romney• Ron Paul• Newt Gingrich• Rick Santorum• Rick Perry• Michele Bachmann

Less Crowded Lanes

• Mitt Romney• Ron Paul• Newt Gingrich• Rick Santorum• Rick Perry

Much Less Crowded Lanes

• Mitt Romney• Ron Paul• Newt Gingrich• Rick Santorum

Much Less Crowded Lanes

• Mitt Romney• Ron Paul• Newt Gingrich

Much Less Crowded Lanes

• Mitt Romney• Ron Paul

The Republican National Convention

Tampa Florida, August 27 – 30

• The theme: A Better Future

Nomination Strategies

• Importance of early victories:– More convention

delegates available– Greater media attention– Increased credibility as a

candidate– Increased fundraising

• Road hazards:Meeting high expectations.Being seen as too ideologically extremeMending fences after bitter nomination fight

Voter Turnout

• 1960 62.8• 1972-1992 low 50s• 1996 49• 2000 54• 2004 60• 2008 62• 2012 57.5

Voter Turnout

• Long lines plagued many polling places

Geography

• Fewer “swing” states:• 1960, every state was considered crucial• 1976, 30 states were in play, with almost all

the largest states among the swing states.• 2004, 11 states in play• 2012, just three considered critical: Ohio,

Florida and Virginia . They drew 2/3 of the campaign appearances

Focusing on a Few Battleground States

• Daily Show with Jon Stewart, “Swing State Hell,” Comedy Central. http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/thu-november-1-2012/swing-state-hell

• A Severe Candidate Warning, from Stephen Colbert

• http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/420761/november-05-2012/colbert-super-pac---severe-candidate-warning

Electoral College

Electoral College Changes post Census

• Impact in 2004 – G.W. Bush Example

• 2012 Impact• Red States gained 8

seats and lost 2• Blue States gained 4

seats and lost 10• 12 point GOP advantage• Clear in House election:

– GOP won 48.2% of vote– Dems won 49% of vote

Electoral College 2012

Electoral College math on election night, 6 NOVEMBER 2012:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TWYQxM4GMPY (CNN, 15 minutes)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PypDMuGTzUA(CBS News, 4 minutes)

Incumbency Advantages

• Free & regular media coverage• A record to run on; a known quantity • Organizational advantages• “Presidential” persona • Head of the political party• Fundraising advantage Speech on Libya

• Some control over federal resources• No intra-party challenges

Incumbency Disadvantages

• Electorate looking for change; blaming the president for problems

• Presidential time limited: must handle demands of governing

• Inability to deliver on earlier promises14 times, presidents have lost re-election bids16 times, presidents have won(including 3 times for FDR)

President Obama as a Candidate

• Record of achievement subject to interpretation.

• Attacks by the political right and political left• Supporters expressed loss of idealism & hope.• Experienced campaign staff.• Strong organization.

Public Approval of Obama

• Low job approval but high likeability. 3rd year job approval at 44% and 4th year at 52%. Yet likeability exceeded 50% & higher than job approval

The Democratic National Convention

Charlotte, North Carolina, Sept. 4 – 6

David Winston’s Advice

• “Thinking new” • Five steps to a winning strategy

– Define the desired outcome• Winning office – specifics• Winning office by a substantial margin (to get a

mandate to govern”

A Mandate to Govern

• Winning by a substantial margin (60% or more) creates the idea that the winner’s policies should be enacted. A mandate is useful for a new president to claim. News media reinforce this idea.

• Yet are mandates real in America?– Voter turnout low– Voters vote for many reasons

David Winston’s Advice

• “Thinking new” • Five steps to a winning strategy

– Define the desired outcome– Develop a situational awareness

Situational Awareness

• Accurately assessing strengths & weaknesses of your candidate & the opponent

• Understanding the issues voters care about, and being flexible to change if those issue concerns change

• Reading the public’s attitude about your party (the “brand”).

David Winston’s Advice

• “Thinking new” • Five steps to a winning strategy

– Define the desired outcome– Develop a situational awareness– Identify your opponent’s potential strategies

David Winston’s Advice

• “Thinking new” • Five steps to a winning strategy

– Define the desired outcome– Develop a situational awareness– Identify your opponent’s potential strategies– Define winning coalitions of voters

David Winston’s Advice

• “Thinking new” • Five steps to a winning strategy

– Define the desired outcome– Develop a situational awareness– Identify your opponent’s potential strategies– Define winning coalitions of voters– Create a strategic communications plan

Communications Matrix

About the candidate About the opponent

What we say about: our issue positions our opponent’s positions

What they say about: our issue positions their own positions

Create a feedback loop to adjust the strategy as needed if the political environment changes.