campaigns optimization with altran

Dr. Igor SchnakenburgSAS-Forum Portugal 09.11.2010

New Ways to Optimise Campaigns

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Altran Group

International Entrepreneur – Present in Over 20 Countries

Founded 1982in Paris

17.200 Employees

Turnover 2009:

1,400 Mill. €

European Leader in Innovation Consulting

International Coverage:• Global Account Management

• Competence Networks

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TechnologyR&D

Consulting

Information Systems Consulting

Strategy & Management

Consulting

Altran Offers a Broad Consulting Portfolio

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Business Intelligence (BI)

Executive Dashboards

Financial Monitoring

Marketing Intelligence

Loyalty Programs

Data Mining & Risk Management

Data Governance / Data Quality

Operational Activities Monitoring

Technical BI Migrations

Partnerships:

Data Quality

BI

EP

M4

8Offers

BI Portfolio @ Altran CIS

http://www.sas.com/index.html

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A question arises …

Are my Sunday breadrolls really the best?

„Our breadrolls are the best in town!“

Enquiring with the bakery:

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One question remains…

Are my Sunday breadrolls really the best?

I have to buy other breadrolls.

(no alternatives!)

Measurement and comparison are necessary:

Advantages• Possibility to compare• Learnings and

Optimisation potential

Disadvantages• Costs• Time & Effort for analysis

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What is obvious with breadrolls seems less obvious with campaigns …

Are my campaigns really the best?

„Our campaigns are the best!“

Enquiring with the campaign manager:

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One question remains…

Are my campaigns really the best?

I have to run simultaneous campaigns.

(no alternatives!)

Measurement and comparison are necessary:

Advantages• Possibility to compare• Learnings and Optimisation potential


Campaigns for comparison

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One question remains …




About disadvantages:

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About disadvantages: Costs

3 possibilities for simultaneous campaigns

1. Advertise competitors products:

2. Advertise different product:

3. Virtual campaign:

CounterproductiveIneffecientTwice expensive

IneffecientExpensiveIrrelevant

SimpleCost-minimisingEfficient

Virtual campaign: approx. 10% * of the selected customers will simply NOT be contacted

Contacted = Target group Not contacted = Control group

* Precise percentage depends on general framework.

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About Disadvantages


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About disadvantages: Time & Effort for analysis (1/8) guarantee representativity

less than 18

18-30 31-45 46-60 more than 60

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Target group

less than 18

18-30 31-45 46-60 more than 60

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Control group

less than 18

18-30 31-45 46-60 more than 60

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Control group

Representative – mirrors distribution of the target group

Not representative – considerably different distribution than target group

Typical properties: Geo-status, salary, …

Age distribution of target group

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Control group is representativeiff p(χ²) > 0,1

About disadvantages: Time & Effort for analysis (2/8) in all relevant criteria distributions have to match

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Statistical Significance,iff p(χ²) ≤ 0,05

About disadvantages: Time & Effort for analysis (3/8) Analysis of results

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• Conversion Rate

• Lift (Grundrauschen)

• Liftbeitrag als Ergebnis

• Return on InvestmentTarget Group Control Group

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

Conversion Rate(overall)

Conversion Rate(focus product)

Overall conversion rate is significantly different, however not for the product in focus.

Relationship to customer OK, focus product campaign feeble.

About advantages: Time & Effort for analysis (4/8) Descriptive parameters

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• Conversion Rate• Lift (Background Noise)

• Liftbeitrag als Ergebnis

• Return on Investment

Equally structured target group produces conversions independent of campaigning!

Lift counts the conversions that can be attributed to the

campaign (230 conversions).

Target Group Control Group0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4



Lift = 0,23%-points

Background Noise


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• Conversion Rate• Lift (Background Noise)• Lift Leverage

• Return on Investment

Equally structured target group contains earnings independent of campaigning(wrong: 1.240 * 900€ = 1,1 Mio. €).

Earnings due to campaigning are 230*900€ = 207.000€.

Target Group Control Group0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Leverage(900€ /conversion)


Campaign profit

Campaignindependent


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• Conversion Rate• Lift (Background Noise)• Lift Leverage• Return on Investment

(RoI)

RoI describes profit per spent Euro of the additional conversions due to campaigning

How many Euro were earnt given any Euro spent? RoI = -100%: total loss of investment RoI = 0%: investment equals the profit due to campaigning

RoI of this campaign is (207-130*)/130 = 59%,

i.e. per Euro spent 59 Cent earnt.

Earnings Costs0

50

100

150

200

250

Earningsvs. Costs

Conversion Rate(whole)

Profit

Invest

* Costs of campaign with 100.000 people were assumed to be approx. 130 T€.


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• Conversion Rate• Characteristics of campaign

• Lift (Background Noise)• Efficiency of campaign

• Lift Leverage• Leverage of campaign

• Return on Investment (RoI)• Performance of campaign

• Conversion Rate• Lift (Background Noise)• Lift Leverage• Return on Investment

(RoI)


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About advantages:


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About advantages: Possibility to compare

B

A

For second best offer company earns only 750€ (instead of 900€).

Also conversion rate in target group is clearly lower:

Target group Control group0

0.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9

1

Conversion Rate(whole)


STILL THIS CAMPAIGNS PERFORMED A LOT BETTER (COMPARED TO CONTROL GROUP):

ANY INVESTED EURO RETURNED 2,94€!

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Advantages• Possibility to compare• Learnings and Optimisation

potential• Time & Effort for analysis

Daisadvantages• Costs

About advantages:


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About advantages: Learnings and optimisation potential: Traffic-lights

Due to quantification it becomes possible to map to traffic-lights and reports which might even be legible for management.

PARAMETER UNSATISFYING :

CHANGES REQUIRED!

PARAMETER NOTSATISFYING :

CHECK PROPERLY!

PARAMETER SATISFYING :

RE-RUN POSSIBLE!

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About advantages: Learnings and optimisation potential: Channel dependance and campaign combinations

eMail

Outlet

Mail

Call Center

Invoice

Possible channels: Possible combinations (follow-up campaigns):

… can and should be examined (quantified).… can and should be compared and checked.

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About advantages: Correct Predictions and Forecasts

circulation

Conversions

Doubled circulationSimple circulation

Conversionscounted

wrongforecast

correctforecast

Background Noise

Why is the number of conversions not doubled with doubled circulation?

When ordering due to predicted conversion the correct forecast will be even less!

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Closed Loop as a basis of continuous optimisation in campaign performance

Combine Learnings and experience

Focus on right product and campaign combinations

(learning matrix)

Process of planning Campaigns:

Selection of campaign participants

Roll-out of campaign

Analysis of any particular campaign

If need be: minor adjustments in active process

Routine reporting of all campaignes (possibility to compare)

If need be: specific analyses for specific campaigns

Plan

ning

Se

lect

ionR

un

ning

An

alys

isMeasure

and

Learn

30Presentation title / date / confidential / Issued

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www.altran-cis.pt

Dr. Igor SchnakenburgSenior ConsultantEmail: [email protected]: +49 (0)170 919 8272

campaigns optimization with altran

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