campbell b: climate change, food security and diversity
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Climate Change, Food Security and Diversity
Bruce Campbell, Director, CCAFS
1. Climate change impacts on agriculture
2. The global challenges for food and nutritional security
3. Climate-smart agriculture
4. Diversity as a key to adaptation
IPCC AR5 in April 2014: global diagnosis for the next seven years?
Working Group 2 Chapter 7 (Chapter 19)
Working Group 3 Chapter 11
• Global surface temperature change likely to exceed 1.5 C by 2100
• Large spatial and temporal variability
• Extreme events will increase
Evidence that yields losses occur already
Lobell et al 2011
Cheung et al 2010
Warren et al 2013
Major biodiversity loss predicted
Plant
Proportion of species
losing >50% of
range
2080 2050 Year
Animal
2020 2080 2050 Year
2020
1.5 billion
people depend on Degraded
Land
USD 7.5 billion lost to
extreme Weather (2010)
1 billion more
People by 2030
1.4 billion living in
Poverty
14% more Food needed per
decade
Nearly 1 billion going Hungry
Sustainable Development Goals (2030)
• End extreme poverty, including absolute
income poverty ($1.25 or less per day).
• End hunger and achieve food security,
appropriate nutrition, and zero child stunting
Aspiration: Half a billion small-scale producers with enhanced resilience to
climate change by 2030
Are these targets insurmountable? “63 million customers per day, so 500 million smallholders in
the next decade is easy!”
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Rel
ativ
e 2
01
2 =
10
0%
Fooddemand
Grain yieldper ha
GDP
Cell phonepenetration
Global Harvest Initiative 2013 FAOSTAT World Bank/Standard Chartered GSMA/Deloitte
Sub-Saharan Africa
And with reduced emissions from Ag
Gt CO2e per year
12 15
36
70
2010 2050(Business as usual)
2050(2°C target)
Non-agricultural
emissions
Agricultural and
land-use change
emissions
>70%
48
85
21
After World Bank (2014)
services
Climate-smart agriculture (CSA)
landscapes
crops
livestock
fish
food system
Photo: N. Palmer, CIAT
policies
peatlands
seascapes
forests
technological
innovations to
generate
weather data
Greater focus on climate risk management
Forecasting From satellite to cell
phone
Risk insurance Rapid payments so
assets are protected
Productive social safety
nets
Build assets; protect from
extremes
That cope with extremes
Technologies and practices
CSA options for food systems
food system
More creative and efficient use of by-products
Less energy-intensity in
fertilizer production
Improving resilience of infrastructure for storage & transport (e.g. roads, ports)
Changing and
diversifying diets
Greater attention to food safety
Reducing post-harvest losses &
consumer wastage
CSA options for landscapes
landscapes
Ensure close links between practice and policy (e.g. land use zoning)
Manage livestock & wildlife over
wide areas
Increase cover of trees and perennials
Restore degraded wetlands, peatlands,
grasslands and watersheds
Creating diversity of land uses
Harvest floods & manage
groundwater
Address coastal
salinity & sea surges
Protect against large-scale erosion
CSA options for crops, fields and farms
crops
Crop diversification and “climate-ready” species
and cultivars
Altering cropping patterns & planting
dates
Better soil and nutrient management e.g. erosion control and micro-dosing
Improved water use efficiency (irrigation
systems, water micro-harvesting)
Monitoring & managing new trends in pests and diseases
On-farm biodiversity, agroforestry, intercropping
Role of crop diversity
• Outer limits of heat, drought, waterlogging, salinity ……
• Useful source of traits to adapt to changing climatic conditions
• Must look beyond our current genetic resource base
Priority 1: Conserving, collecting and pre-
breeding crop wild relatives
But where do we start?
Priority 2: Tackle the
policy challenges
• Simplified production
systems
• Seed policies that focus on
few crops/varieties
• Greater genetic resource
interdependence between
countries
• Rarely integrated into
national adaptation strategies
Strategic Action Plan to Conserve and Use
Mesoamerica Plant Genetic Resources
• 10 year road map
• Comprises 64 actions under 6 themes
• Covers 10 crops and their wild relatives
• Adopted by Ministers of CAC, with IICA support
• Resulted in numerous activities at country level
Priority 3: ‘Seeds for Needs’
Crop suitability
Geographic information
Genebank accession collection coordinates
Climate change data
3. Farmers test and report back by mobile phone
2. Each farmer gets a different combination of varieties
4. Environmental data (GPS, sensors) to assess adaptation
1. A broad set of varieties
6. Data are used to detect demand for new varieties and traits
Participatory evaluation
5. Farmers receive tailored variety recommendations and can order seeds
• Indian Agriculture Research Institute
• Directorate of Wheat Research
• Humana People to People • Gene Campaign • Ashok Sansthan • Nand Educational
Foundation for Rural Development
30 farmers 2011 5000 in 2013 UPSCALING (Min of Agric; GiZ…..)
Example: Seasonal weather forecasts in
Senegal
2 million farmers get forecasts 15 community radio stations better food security outcomes
We can do it!
Diversity and diversification
Major impacts
Transformative change
Severe targets
www.ccafs.cgiar.org sign up for blogs and news e-bulletins
Twitter: @bcampbell_CGIAR @cgiarclimate
Increased investment
in climate-smart
agriculture will ensure
global peace, equity and
prosperity