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Op-Ed Contributors

Can America win by confrontingChina?

By Francis C W Fung (chinadaily.com.cn)Updated: 2010-02-25 17:20

Will America win in an all out confrontation with China? The reality is both sides willlose. How much each side will lose? Which nation will recover more readily from theloss suffered from such an unwise and unthinkable confrontation? Will our overreach into another unnecessary cold war be productive? How essential is it for bothnations to reach harmony consensus for win- win development instead ofconfrontation? America should have a public debate on this very urgent andimportant subject so we are better prepared for the consequences of ourconfrontational actions should we decide to embark on it.

Leaders of both nations are fully aware of the severe consequences of an avoidableall out confrontation. But a public debate in America is needed so President Obamawill not be subjected to undue pressure from the public to provoke China to the pointof no return. American media still mire its mind in the past Cold War mentality as tohave not done the necessary task to educate American public about Chinadevelopment. We are uninformed and under disillusion about how China couldprogress so fast economically during the past three decades.

Despite the fact that the 2008 global financial crises was caused by America, therehas rarely been any complaint from China. Chinese culture is not known to be criticalof others. Fortunately Chinese leaders also read Sun Zi and follow Deng Xiaopingsforeign policy teaching for China -Observe developments soberly, maintain ourposition, meet challenges calmly, hide our capacities and bide our time, remain freeof ambition, never claim leadership and avoid serious confrontations. Americanleaders are under pressure from the public to confront China for the last half centuryever since the founding of the Peoples Republic of China. Our citizens areconstantly reminded by the media that we have the best political system and Chinamust follow the American model to develop (See Martin Jacques, When ChinaRules the World, 2010).

American media has vowed with confidence that China now is more dependent on

American market. This media driven misinformation served to build up Americanconfidence to please the public. This misconception of the public can be dangerousas to force our leaders hands on too many unnecessary confrontations with China,as witnessed by our superior than thou attitude on Internet Freedom, sales of armsto Taiwan and Obamas meeting with Dalai Lama, despite repeated warning fromChina. On further analysis it is easy to show that America is actually more dependenton China as our banker to support out twin deficits.

Americans think we won the Cold War because of our superior ideology. Over the

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years, we have convinced ourselves that we are invincible. We also are very proudthat our military power is supreme and that we are a creative nation and lead theworld in technology. The truth is that our business enterprise is competitive becausewe have an early action in industrial revolution and our most endowed land attractsvast number of talents who seek opportunities. Ideology is very fickle. A nation canchange her ideology on a dime as we witness Chinas transformation. During the lastthree decades of reform and opening up she has proved that her hybrid system ofcombined state economy with market economy can work quite well. Many foreigntalents that used to come from Europe, Japan, China and India are now returninghome because economic opportunities in their homelands are growing withincreased prosperity. This phenomenon is well known as we saw Japanese andTaiwanese scientists and entrepreneurs returning home during the latter part of lastCentury and recently some Chinese and Indian talents are doing the same.

If current American provocation is unchecked there may come a point that China willbe forced to retaliate in action by discontinuing to subsidize our twin deficits. Thisreaction will most likely lead to an all out confrontation. The first to suffer will beAmerican consumers who will need to pay higher prices for essential goods tomaintain our living standard. Next will be American and Chinese businesses,because 70 % of imports from China are under joint venture management withforeign companies making more profit than that of Chinese business. It may not befun to watch the domino effects of worldwide trade protectionism and stock marketscrash, but it could happen like the 1929 world depression. When this does occurthere is no telling who will be the bigger loser.

Luckily the world will recover from the next depression if it should occur despite ourefforts to prevent it. The question is who will be more likely to recover from it fastest?America has never had a major calamity that took place in our home land other thanthe Civil War. China, however on the other hand, during the last Century,

experienced the devastation of numerous imperial wars of aggression, the Japaneseoccupation, two major civil wars, the Cultural Revolution and the recent devastatingSichuan earthquake. She has showed remarkable resilience in recovering from allthose calamities. In addition, as an ancient culture, she has shown continuous unityfor a long uninterrupted history of five thousand years.

As a dynamic young nation, America does not have a deep rooted ancient civilizationas binding force. China is a cultural state and not a political state. China is morecentralized and cohesive as is demonstrated by her developing pattern over the lastthree decades and her fast recovery from the last global economic crisis. (See MartinJacques, When China Rules the World, 2010). As the worlds manufacturingcenter, China certainly will be the first to have the get up and go to export consumer

goods to the rest of the developing world. Remember in any depression, when thestock market has crashed, cash is king. Whereas America is currently heavily indebt, China has two trillion dollars of foreign currency reserve. Adding the 700 billionfrom Hong Kong, this will make 2.7 trillion. She and other cash rich nations in Asiawill certainly recover much faster during this potential depression than America, evenif they are not targeted to rise already by most accounts.

History has ample documentations of the 1929 global depression. It is sufficient toconclude that at this time of crisis, caution is the best part of velour for both America

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and China not to tempt fate. The most advisable course of action is for America andChina both to continue cooperation and reach Harmony Consensus. In a joint effortbetween the most powerful developed nation and the fastest growing developingcountry, America and China will both fulfill the manifested destination of greatness,bringing lasting peace and harmony to the world. Harmony is the most commonvalue of human civilization and Harmony Renaissance is the next creative wave ofenergy mankind is waiting for to lead us to the next level of accomplishment beyondEuropean Renaissance.

The author is the General Director of World Harmony Organization. The opinionsexpressed are his own.