can we learn to tame "black swans"?
TRANSCRIPT
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BBK. Gemeinsam handeln. Sicher leben
Can we learn to tame "Black Swans"?The Role of Strategic Crisis Management Exercises in Germany - LÜKEX
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Comprehensive Safety and Security Approach as of 2002
Police Armed Forces
SecretService
Actorsin Civil
Protection
Private Operators of Critical
Infra-structures
Risk and crisis managementfor joint disaster prevention
othe
r act
ors
othe
r act
ors
National Security Architecture
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Crisis Management –A few observations to start with
• Crisis = extraordinary event that cannot be handled by day-to-day working procedures, requiring special operating structures and procedures
• Focus: minimize the impact rather than preventing it?• "We have never had problems putting Cassandra to speak –
we have rather had problems in believing what she said" (D. Salomons, Columbia Univ.)
Summer Flooding 2013 Refugee Shelter 2015
v.
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"Ideally", a continuous cycle…
CrisisRisk and Crisis Management
NOAH
GMLZ
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Länderministries
Federalauthorities
Authorities of
the Länder
Federalministries
Criticalinfrastructure
providers
Science,research
Relieforganisations
Internationalreferences
LÜKEX joins actors before a crisis
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The journey is the reward: 2 years of joint planning, preparing, conducting, evaluating!
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LÜKEX is crisis anticipation and enables strategic foresight
2017
Natural Gas
Shortage
• 2005 Large scale blackout during winter storm in the Münsterland region
• 2009 "Mexican Flu"
• 2015 Cyber attack on German Parliament
• …
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– Ministries Interior, Traffic, Defense in the political lead
Civil-Military Cooperation Evacuation
Failure of critical infrastructures
Damage of Critical
Infrastructures
Public Alert
International assistance
DNK & NEL Internal Management of
Resources
Psychosocial Emergency
Care
Speaking Storm Surge
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28 August 2015: For the first time in 13 years, a LÜKEX exercise conduction is cancelled after 1 1/2 years of
planning and preparing, due to the refugee crisis.
From crisis exercise to real crisis management…
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"We are doing now what we strongly needed to have exercised…"
Similar actors! Similar questions! Unforeseen
scenario…
Photos: Hans-Jürgen Vollrath, Rhein-
Zeitung
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Crisis Management Exercises = prepare for the unthinkable!
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Recipe for future-oriented strategic crisis management exercises (A German Chef's suggestions)
Involve state and non-state actors, follow an integrated societal and cross-sectoral approach
Target the highest decision-making level (strategic foresight is more complex than tactical choices)
Sharpen sensitivity for daring to think think unthinkable
Focus on the need for a good communication in crisis management about known as much as uncertain risks: to the public (the population is not my enemy!), to and through the conventional and 2.0 media, within and across organizations
Exercise beyond: there is more to strategic crisis management exercises than just the exercise conduction – it's a process where you learn to know your friends before you need them
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BBK. Gemeinsam handeln. Sicher leben.
Thank you for your kind attention!Kontakt
Dr. Miriam HaritzHead of Division / Head of Federal Project Group LÜ[email protected]+49 228 99550 5600www.bbk.bund.de / www.luekex.de
Contact Information