Can We Raise Employment Prospects for Disadvantaged Men?

Harry J. HolzerGeorgetown, AIR and Brookings

April 2015

Outline

• Disadvantaged Men Since 2000: Changes in the Economic/Policy Environment

• Knowing the Numbers and the Barriers• What Have We Learned from Program and

Policy Evaluation?• Have Positive Changes Occurred in Federal or

State Policy? • Going Forward

Changes in the Environment Since 2000

• Around the Year 2000: “Discovery” of Offender/Reentry, NCP, and Disconnected Youth Populations by Workforce and Policy Communities

• Since 2000: 1) Much Weaker Job Market! 2) More Offenders/NCPs 3) A Lot of Research/Policy Work

What are the Numbers?

• 1/3 of all black men incarcerated by age 35• 2/3 of all black male HS dropouts incarcerated

by age 35• Incarcerated population: Over 2 million +

Parole/Probation• NCPs: Over Half of All Black Fathers, About 70%

of the Incarcerated• Disconnected Youth: 1 out of 6?• Declining Male Labor Force Participation..

What are the Barriers?

Research: Cancian, Heinrich, Meyer, Pate, Garfinkle; Pager, Western, Raphael and Stoll; Mincy; Edelman/Holzer/Offner/Sorensen

At-Risk/Disconnected Youth: Poor Skills and Schooling – Dropouts, Grads Weak Work Experience/Attachment

Barriers (Cont’d)

Ex-Offenders: Further Demand/Supply Problems Federal and State Laws Employer Attitudes Background Checks (Mixed Effects) Less Work Experience, More Disconnection NCPs: Further Supply-Side Problems Orders and Arrears: Taxes on Earnings Distribution to State and Others

Program/Policy Evaluation

Difficult Populations….But Some Promising and Proven Results

Disconnected Youth (Wimer and Bloom):• Prevention: SEL, Big Brother/Big Sister; Talent Development,

Career Academies, Small Schools of Choice; ASAP/PUMA, Becoming a Man, Sectoral Training…Mentoring, Summer Jobs+CBT+Skills/Incentives; CTE or Work-Based Learning; CC Reforms and Incentives, Coaching and Informing

• Reconnection: Job Corps, ChalleNGe, Jobs Plus, LaGuardia Bridge…

Program/Policy Evaluation (Contd).

Offenders/NCPs: • Transitional Jobs• NCP Choices (TX), Strong Fathers Initiative (NY)• EITC

Many Others…Under Evaluation or Should Be

Broader Questions:• For Whom? Very Different Characteristics…Harder to make

progress with the THE or NCP/Offenders• How to Replicate and Scale the Successes?

Federal/State Policy: Positive Changes

Obama Administration - Rule-Making on:• Default Orders and Arrears Adjustment• Treating Incarceration as “Voluntary Unemp.” • Distribution of Funds to Families!• Employment ServicesMany States have Moved In These Directions…Growing Consensus

Going Forward

• On the Down Side: Federal political and fiscal environments – Little Legislative Change

• On the Up Side: New Conservative Politics on Incarceration, Consensus on Issues Surrounding Fathers

• Possibilities: A New Grand Bargain on Employment, Marriage/Contraception, Fatherhood?

• No Reason to Give Up Hope!