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The Regulatory Assistance Project 50 State Street, Suite 3Montpelier, VT 05602
Phone: 802-223-8199www.raponline.org
Can We Teach that Duck to Fly?
December 3, 2014
Carl Linvill, PhDPrincipal
Renewable Energy MarketsSacramento, CADecember 2014
Takeaways
• More variable renewables and local resources affect electricity needs
• Institutional and behavioral evolution is the key
• Reforms: “integration challenge”
• Reforms: “duck curve”
• Beyond capacity and energy toward valuing capabilities is key
2
The Integration Challenge
• More Efficiency, Conservation and DG affects Net Load
• More Variable Renewable Energy affects Net Load
3
Changes in Consumption & More Non-dispatchable Generation affects Net Load
4
Meeting Targets at Least Cost (WGA/RAP/NREL – June 2012)
• Expand Sub-hourly Scheduling
• Facilitate Dynamic Transfers
• Implement EIM
• Improve Forecasting
• Leverage Geographic Diversity
• Improve Reserves Management
• Retool Demand Response
• Use Flexibility of Existing Generation
• Flexibility in New Gas Generation
5
The “Duck Curve” Challenge
• Local generation on the distribution system combined with large scale PV installations affects net load in a particular way
• This has become known as the “duck curve” challenge
6
The California ISO “Duck Curve”:Increasing solar means steep afternoon ramping.
7
Guess What: Ducks Can Fly
8
A duck in water has very much
the shape of the CAISO graphic.
The “fat body” floats, and the tall
neck breathes.
A duck in flight stretches out its
body and straightens its neck in
order to reduce wind resistance.
Our job is to straighten
this duck out.
Ten Strategies To Align Loads to Resources(and Resources to Loads)
1. Targeted energy
efficiency
2. Orient solar panels
3. Use solar thermal
with storage.
4. Manage electric
water heat
5. Require new large
air conditioners to
include storage
6. Retire older inflexible power
plants
7. Concentrate demand charges
into “ramping” hours
8. Deploy energy storage in
targeted locations
9. Implement aggressive demand
response programs
10.Use inter-regional exchanges
of power
9
Not every strategy will be
applicable to every utility.
Teaching the Duck to Fly
Requesting Permission for Take-Off
How Did We Do?
Pre-Strategy, without Solar/Wind: 73% LF
Pre-Strategy, with Solar/Wind: 63% LF
Post-Strategy, with Solar/Wind: 83% LFHourly Ramp: 340 MW vs. 400 today, and 550 w/o strategies
11
Beyond Capacity and Energy toward Valuing Capabilities
• Identify needed capabilities and compensate resources fairly
– Make system needs transparent
– Qualify all resources (and verify)
– Reform markets & procurement
• “What Lies Beyond Capacity Markets,” RAP, 2012
12
Takeaways
• More variable renewables and local resources affect electricity needs
• Institutional and behavioral evolution is the key
• Reforms: “integration challenge”
• Reforms: “duck curve”
• Beyond capacity and energy toward valuing capabilities is key
13
To 33% and Beyond: It’s about individual & institutional evolution
This is not about a technology silver bullet …
How well do we use today’s info tech?
Energy is abundant
14
The Regulatory Assistance Project 50 State Street, Suite 3Montpelier, VT 05602
Phone: 802-223-8199www.raponline.org
Resource Materials:
The Least Cost Integration Challenge: http://www.raponline.org/document/download/id/5041
Teaching the Duck to Fly:
http://www.raponline.org/document/download/id/6977
Clean Keeps the Lights On:
http://www.raponline.org/document/download/id/7175
Regulatory Consideration Associated with Expanded Adoption of Solar (w/ NREL):
http://www.raponline.org/document/download/id/6891
About RAP
The Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP) is a global, non-profit team of experts that focuses on the long-term economic and environmental sustainability of the power and natural gas sectors. RAP has deep expertise in regulatory and market policies that:
Promote economic efficiency Protect the environment Ensure system reliability Allocate system benefits fairly among all consumers
Learn more about RAP at www.raponline.org
Carl Linvill
775-450-0603