canada's real estate sector, mortgages &...

Canada'sRealEstateSector,Mortgages&HouseholdDebt,andResiden;alPropertyValues

KeyGDP&EmploymentIndicators

ChartspreparedbytheNeighbourhoodChangeResearchPartnership.RichardMaaranen,DataAnalyst.DavidHulchanski,PrincipalInves;gator.

18December2016www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca

DATASOURCES

CanadianSocioeconomicDatabase(CANSIM)atStatisticsCanadahttp://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim

RealEstateSectorEmploymentandGDPData1. CANSIMTable379-0031-Grossdomesticproduct(GDP)atbasicprices,byNorthAmericanIndustryClassificationSystem(NAICS),monthly

(dollarsx1,000,000)

2. CANSIMTable282-0008-Labourforcesurveyestimates(LFS),byNorthAmericanIndustryClassificationSystem(NAICS),sexandagegroup,annual(personsunlessotherwisenoted)

3. NationalHouseholdSurvey2011–NHSTable99-012-X2011030.PlaceofWorkStatus(5),Industry-NorthAmericanIndustryClassificationSystem(NAICS)2007(102),Sex(3)andAgeGroups(11)fortheEmployedLabourForceAged15YearsandOver,inPrivateHouseholdsofCanada,Provinces,CMAs.https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/nhs-enm/2011/dp-pd/dt-td/Index-eng.cfm

4. Census2001-BasicCross-TabulationTable97C0031.PlaceofWorkStatus(7),Industry-1997NorthAmericanIndustryClassificationSystem(21)andWorkActivity(4)forEmployedLabourForce15YearsandOver,forCensusMetropolitanAreas,CensusAgglomerationsandCensusTractsofResidence.http://data.library.utoronto.ca/content/census-canada-2001-basic-cross-tabulations-bcts

MortgageCreditBalanceandInterestRatesData1. CANSIMTable176-0069-Residentialmortgagecredit,outstandingbalancesofmajorprivateinstitutionallenders,BankofCanada,monthly

(dollarsx1,000,000)

2. CANSIMTable027-0015-CanadaMortgageandHousingCorporation,conventionalmortgagelendingrate,5-yearterm,monthly(percent)

HouseholdMortgageDebt,ConsumerDebt&DisposableIncomeData1. CANSIMTable380-0073-Selectedindicators-Households,quarterly(dollarsunlessotherwisenoted)

2. CANSIMTable380-0019-Sectoraccounts,personsandunincorporatedbusinesses,annual(dollarsunlessotherwisenoted)

3. CANSIMTable378-0051-Nationalbalancesheet,personsandunincorporatedbusiness,annual(dollarsx1,000,000)

4. CANSIMTable378-0121-NationalBalanceSheetAccounts,quarterly(dollarsx1,000,000)

PropertyValuesandPopulation1. CANSIMTable026-0018-Residentialpropertyvalues,byprovince,territoryandcensusmetropolitanarea(CMA),annual(dollarsx

1,000,000)

2. CANSIMTable051-0056-Estimatesofpopulationbycensusmetropolitanarea,sexandagegroupforJuly1,basedontheStandardGeographicalClassification(SGC)2011,annual(persons)

DEFNITIONSofrelevanteconomicsectors

NorthAmericanIndustryClassificationSystem(NAICS)Canada2012http://www23.statcan.gc.ca/imdb/p3VD.pl?Function=getVDPage1&db=imdb&dis=2&adm=8&TVD=118464

53-RealEstateandrentalandleasingThissectorcomprisesestablishmentsprimarilyengagedinrenting,leasingorotherwiseallowingtheuseoftangibleorintangibleassets.Establishmentsprimarilyengagedinmanagingrealestateforothers;selling,rentingand/orbuyingofrealestateforothers;andappraisingrealestate,arealsoincluded.

52-FinanceandinsuranceThissectorcomprisesestablishmentsprimarilyengagedinfinancialtransactions(thatis,transactionsinvolvingthecreation,liquidation,orchangeinownershipoffinancialassets)orinfacilitatingfinancialtransactions.Includedare:• establishmentsthatareprimarilyengagedinfinancialintermediation.Theyraisefundsbytakingdepositsand/orissuingsecurities,and,in

theprocess,incurliabilities,whichtheyusetoacquirefinancialassetsbymakingloansand/orpurchasingsecurities.Puttingthemselvesatrisk,theychannelfundsfromlenderstoborrowersandtransformorrepackagethefundswithrespecttomaturity,scaleandrisk.

• establishmentsthatareprimarilyengagedinthepoolingofriskbyunderwritingannuitiesandinsurance.Theycollectfees(insurancepremiumsorannuityconsiderations),buildupreserves,investthosereservesandmakecontractualpayments.Feesarebasedontheexpectedincidenceoftheinsuredriskandtheexpectedreturnoninvestment.

31-33-ManufacturingThissectorcomprisesestablishmentsprimarilyengagedinthechemical,mechanicalorphysicaltransformationofmaterialsorsubstancesintonewproducts.Theseproductsmaybefinished,inthesensethattheyarereadytobeusedorconsumed,orsemi-finished,inthesenseofbecomingarawmaterialforanestablishmenttouseinfurthermanufacturing.Relatedactivities,suchastheassemblyofthecomponentpartsofmanufacturedgoods;theblendingofmaterials;andthefinishingofmanufacturedproductsbydyeing,heat-treating,platingandsimilaroperationsarealsotreatedasmanufacturingactivities.Manufacturingestablishmentsareknownbyavarietyoftradedesignations,suchasplants,factoriesormills.Manufacturingestablishmentsmayownthematerialswhichtheytransformortheymaytransformmaterialsownedbyotherestablishments.Manufacturingmaytakeplaceinfactoriesorinworkers'homes,usingeithermachineryorhandtools.

Certainactivitiesinvolvingthetransformationofgoodsareclassifiedinothersectors.Someexamplesarepost-harvestactivitiesofagriculturalestablishments,suchascropdrying;logging;thebeneficiatingofmineralores;theproductionofstructuresbyconstructionestablishments;andvariousactivitiesconductedbyretailers,suchasmeatcuttingandtheassemblyofproductssuchasbicyclesandcomputers.

23-ConstructionThissectorcomprisesestablishmentsprimarilyengagedinconstructing,repairingandrenovatingbuildingsandengineeringworks,andinsubdividinganddevelopingland.Theseestablishmentsmayoperateontheirownaccountorundercontracttootherestablishmentsorpropertyowners.Theymayproducecompleteprojectsorjustpartsofprojects.Establishmentsoftensubcontractsomeoralloftheworkinvolvedinaproject,orworktogetherinjointventures.Establishmentsmayproducenewconstruction,orundertakerepairsandrenovationstoexistingstructures.Aconstructionestablishmentmaybetheonlyestablishmentofanenterprise,oroneofseveralestablishmentsofanintegratedrealestateenterpriseengagedinthelandassembly,development,financing,buildingandsaleoflargeprojects.

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%

Real estate & rental & leasing

Manufacturing

Mining, quarrying, oil & gas extraction

Finance & insurance

Construction

Health care & social assistance

Public administration

Wholesale trade

Retail trade

Professional, scientific & technical services

Educational services

Transportation & warehousing

20161997

Data for January 1997 and September 2016. Share of total national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at basic prices. Chained 2007 dollars. North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).

Canada's Top Economic Sectors: GDPShare of Gross Domestic Product, 1997 and 2016

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 379-0031 GDP by Industry.

Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership University of Toronto. December 2016.

www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca

Neighbourhood Change Research PartnershipUniversity of Toronto. December 2016.


Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 026-0018. National Household

Survey, 2011, Table 99-012-X2011030

Toronto

Vancouver

Montréal

Edmonton

Calgary

Québec

Kitchener-Waterloo

Ottawa-Gatineau

Hamilton

Kelowna

St. Catharines-Niagara

Oshawa

Brantford

London

Saskatoon

Victoria

Abbotsford-Mission

Sudbury

St. John's

Barrie

SherbrookeSaguenay

Trois-Rivières

Halifax

PeterboroughWindsor

Guelph

Kingston

Regina

Moncton

Saint John

Thunder Bay

Winnipeg

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

2.0%

2.2%

2.4%

2.6%

2.8%

3.0%

$50,000 $75,000 $100,000 $125,000 $150,000 $175,000 $200,000 $225,000

Shar

e of

Em

ploy

men

t in

Rea

l Est

ate

Indu

stry

Property Values Per Person

Residential Property Values & Real Estate Employment Census Metropolitan Areas, Canada, 2011

Employment in the Real Estate, Rental & Leasing sector, CanadaLinear Trend Line

R-sq = 72%



Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 379-0031 GDP by Industry.

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%

13%

14%

Share of total national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at basic prices. North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), monthly.

Linear Trend LineR-sq = 86%

January 1997: 11.5%September 2016: 13.1%

Real Estate, Rental, & Leasing Sector: GDPShare of Canada's Gross Domestic Product, 1997–2016



Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 379-0031

GDP by Industry.

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

Manufacturing IndustryShare of Canada's Gross Domestic Product, 1997–2016

Notes: Share of total national gross domestic product (GDP) at basic prices. North American Industry Classification System, monthly.


January 1997: 14.6%September 2016: 10.4%



Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 379-0031. GDP by Industry.

Sept-2000, 16.1%

Nov-2008, 11.7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%

13%

14%

15%

16%

17%

Share of total national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at basic prices. North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), monthly.

Canada's Real Estate & Manufacturing Sectors: GDP Share of Gross Domestic Product, 1997–2016

Manufacturing January 1997: 14.6%September 2016: 10.4%

Real Estate, Rental & LeasingJanuary 1997: 11.5%

September 2016: 13.1%



Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, CANSIM Table 282-0008

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

Tota

l Em

ploy

men

t (t

hous

ands

)


1987: 229,000 (1.9% share) 2015: 312,000 (1.7% share) Growth: 83,000 = 36% increase

Real Estate, Rental, & Leasing Jobs Canada, 1987–2015

Labour force survey estimates (LFS) by North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), annual.

1992

2011

1999




1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

Tota

l Job

s (th

ousa

nds)


January 1997: 1,804,000 (16.5% share) November 2016: 1,593,000 (10.3% share)

Manufacturing Jobs, Canada, 1997–2016

Labour force survey estimates (LFS) by North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), unadjusted for seasonality, monthly (persons).



Source: Statistics Canada, Census 2011, Table 97C0031. National Household

Survey, 2011, Table 99-012-X2011030

12,990 increase

8,080

6,265

3,240 2,775

1,480 1,325 1,225 910 810

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Growth in Real Estate Sector Jobs, 2001–2011Top Ten Census Metropolitan Areas

Employment in the Real Estate, Rental, & Leasing Sector, Canada 2001 Census: 204,000 (1.9% share) 2011 NHS: 306,000 (1.8% share)Growth: 102,000 = 50% increase




0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Tota

l Em

ploy

men

t (t

hous

ands

)Real Estate & Manufacturing Sector Jobs

Canada, 1987–2015

Labour force survey estimates (LFS) by North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), annual.

Manufacturing1987: 2,194,000 (17.8% share) 2015: 1,798,000 (10.0% share) Loss: 396,000 = 18% decreaseReal Estate, Rental & Leasing

1987: 229,000 (1.9% share) 2015: 312,000 (1.7% share) Growth: 83,000 = 36% increase




$0

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

$1,000,000

$1,200,000

$1,400,000

$1,600,000

Cons

tant

201

6 do

llars

(bill

ions

)

Residential mortgage credit, outstanding balances of major private institutional lenders, at months end, seasonally unadjusted. Adjusted to constant September 2016 dollars using the monthly Statistics Canada, Consumer Price Index.


January 1969: $98 billion September 2006: $846 billion September 2016: $1,424 billion

Residential Mortgage CreditTotal Outstanding Balance, Canada, 1969–2016

Constant Sept. 2016 dollars



Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 176-069 and 027-0015

Sept. 198121%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

$0

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

$1,000,000

$1,200,000

$1,400,000

$1,600,000

Cons

tant

201

6 do

llars

(mill

ions

)

Residential mortgage credit, outstanding balances of major private institutional lenders, at months end, seasonally unadjusted. Adjusted to constant September 2016 dollars using the monthly Statistics Canada, Consumer Price Index.Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, conventional mortgage lending rate, 5-year term, monthly (percent)

Outstanding Balance & 5-Year Lending RateJanuary 1969: $98 billion, 9.4%September 2006: $846 billion, 6.1%September 2016: $1,424 billion, 3.7%

Residential Mortgage Interest Rates &Total Outstanding Mortgage Credit, Canada, 1969–2016

Mortgage Interest Rate

Total Outstanding Mortgage Credit Constant 2016 dollars (millions)




$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

Cons

tant

201

6 do

llars

(bill

ions

)

Third quarter figures for each year, seasonally adjusted at annual rates. Debt payments adjusted to constant August 2016 dollars using monthly Statistics Canada, Consumer Price Indexes.

Mortgage Payments1990: $49 billion (54.6% share)2016: $77 billion (44.8% share)

Non-Mortgage Payments1990: $44 billion (48.6% share)2016: $99 billion (57.7% share)

Household Debt in Canada, 1990–2016

Mortgage Payments

Non-Mortgage Payments



Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Tables 380-0019,

378-0051, 378-0121, 380-0073

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

Debt

as a

Per

cent

age

of D

ispo

sabl

e In

com

e

Figures for 1961-2011 include households and unincorporated businesses. Figures for 2012-2015 are for the fourth quarter each year and only include households. Excludes loans other than consumer credit or mortgage debt.

Mortgage Debt1961: $4,300* per person (35.1% of disposable income)2015: $35,100 per person (110.1%)

Household Debt Share of Disposable Income Canada, 1961–2015

Mortgage Debt

Consumer Debt

Consumer Debt1961: $1,900* per person (15.7%)2015: $16,000 per person (50.2%)*Constant 2015 dollars.




$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000

$200,000

$220,000

$240,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Residential property values are taxable values in current dollars adjusted to constant 2013 dollars.

Residential Property Values Per Person Eight Census Metropolitan Areas, 2005–2013

Vancouver

Calgary

Toronto Ottawa-Gatineau

Halifax & Winnipeg

Hamilton Montréal




$95,250 $101,605

$121,294

$158,818

$115,544

$92,553

$156,079

$218,492

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000

$200,000

$220,000

Halifax Montréal Ottawa Toronto Hamilton Winnipeg Calgary Vancouver

2005 2013

Residential property values are taxable values in current dollars adjusted to constant 2013 dollars. Ottawa is theOttawa-Gatineau Census Metropolitan Area.

Residential Property Values Per Person Eight Census Metropolitan Areas, 2005 and 2013

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

200%

220%

240%

260%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Share of total national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at basic prices. Monthly annual GDP in 2007 chained dollars adjusted to con-stant 2013 dollars. Residential property values are the taxable property value in current dollars adjusted to constant 2013 dollars.

Linear Trend LineR-sq = 89%2005: 174% of GDP

2013: 240%

Residential Property Values in Canada Relative to the Gross Domestic Product, 2005–2013

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 026-0018 and Table 379-0031



$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

$100,000

$110,000

$120,000

$130,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Residential property values are the taxable property value in current dollars adjusted to constant 2013 dollars.


Residential Property Values Per Person Canada, 2005–2013



Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 026-0018 and Table 051-001

2005: $82,000 2013: $120,000



Source: City of Toronto Economic Bulletin, December 2016. Open Data

Catalogue www.toronto.ca/open

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

Average House Price, TorontoCensus Metropolitan Area, 2000–2016


January 2000: $230,000May 2016: $752,000



Source: City of Toronto Economic Bulletin, December 2016. Open Data

Catalogue www.toronto.ca/open

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

$900,000

Average House Price, City of Toronto 2007–2016


January 2007: $377,000September 2016: $765,000

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