canadian agriculture: evolution and innovation · canadian agriculture: evolution and innovation...
TRANSCRIPT
Telling Canada’s story in numbers
November 14, 2017
Winnipeg, Manitoba
Canadian agriculture:
evolution and innovation
www.statcan.gc.ca
Talking Stats: Connecting. Collaborating. Learning.
Anil Arora
Chief Statistician of Canada
2
Outline of presentation
• Introduction and background
Canadian agriculture in a global market
• Portrait of a 21st century farm operation
Socioeconomic changes in Canadian agriculture
• Canadian agriculture
Innovation in an evolving industry
• Moving forward
Challenges and opportunities
3
Evolution of the Canadian agriculture industry
Canada is a world leader in agriculture
4
Ranked 5th globally for
agriculture export value in
2014
Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.
Top exports in 2016:
1. Canola seed and oil: $8.8 billion
2. Wheat: $6.0 billion
3. Meat, pork: $3.2 billion
4. Soybeans: $2.5 billion
5. Lentils: $2.1 billion
Source: Trade Data Online.
Rank in global production in 2014:
1st: canola, lentils, dry peas, maple
2nd: blueberries
6th: wheat, barley
7th: soybeans
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
4
Canadian exports have grown
5Source: Trade Data Online.
$11.5
billion
$28.1
billion
19962016
5
6
Canada exports across the world
China is the main export destination for:
Export Value (million)
% of value exported by
Canada
Canola seed $1,928 34.0
Soybeans $948 37.8
Flaxseed $216 55.7
Japan is the main export destination for:
Export Value (million)
% of value exported by
Canada
Wheat $579 9.7
India is the main export destination for:
Export Value (million)
% value exported by
Canada
Dry peas $595 41.5
Lentils $523 24.6
USA is the main export destination for:
Export Value (million)
% of value exported by
Canada
Meat, beef $1,511 78.7
Meat, pork $1,320 76.7
Greenhouse veg $1,089 99.6
Maple $236 61.9
Blueberries $165 55.8
Source: World Trade Atlas.
Largest exports by value by country of destination in 2016
Contribution of the agricultural sector to the
economy
7
2.9
10.3
4.0
4.94.5
3.8
10.3
13.5
4.03.4
4.6
N.L. P.E.I. N.S. N.B. Que. Ont. Man. Sask. Alta. B.C. Canada
percent of gross
domestic product
Source: Statistics Canada, 2013. Special tabulation, based on 2013 gross domestic product by industry.
8
Portrait of a 21st century
farm operation:Socioeconomic characteristics
of farm businesses and farm
operators
9
Fewer farms, but they are larger
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
average area (in acres)number of farms
(thousands)
Total number of agricultural operations and average area (in acres) per operation, 1871 to 2016 census years, Canada
Average acres per operation Number of agricultural operations
Source: Census of Agriculture.
A shift in production: Evolution of farm type
10
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Dairy cattle and milk productionBeef cattle ranching and farming, including feedlotsHog and pig farming Wheat farmingOilseeds (including soybeans)Dry pea and bean Greenhouse
percent Percentage of agricultural operations by selected operation types, 1981 to 2016 1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Dairy cattle and milkproduction
Beef cattle ranching andfarming, including feedlots
Hog and pig farming Wheat Oilseeds (includingsoybeans)
Dry pea and bean Greenhouse
gross farm receipts (billions) Gross farm receipts in 2015 constant dollars by selected operation type, 1980 to 2015 1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Source: Census of Agriculture.
10
Productivity growth in Canadian agriculture
11
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
index (1961=1)
Gross output Total input Multifactor productivity
Source: CANSIM 383-0032.
Trend in output, input and productivity in Canadian agriculture, 1961 to 2013
12
Farm cash receipts have increased alongside farm
debt
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
dollars (billions)Farm cash receipts and farm debt, Canada, 1996 to 2016
Farm debt Farm cash receipts
Source: CANSIM 002-0008 and 002-0001.
$107,350
$115,778
$117,684
$133,887
2009
2011
2013
2015
Source: CANSIM table 002-0074.
Farmers invest in their business
13
Average annual capital investment per farm(in 2015 constant dollars)
More farms renting land as prices rise
14
Land tenure,
2001 to 2016
Value per acre, 2016
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2001 2006 2011 2016
acres (millions)
Area owned Rented All other tenure
Source: Census of Agriculture.
Source: Census of Agriculture.
14
Larger farms have more year-round employees
15
Source: Census of Agriculture
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
$1 to $9,999 $10,000 to
$24,999
$25,000 to
$49,999
$50,000 to
$99,999
$100,000 to
$249,999
$250,000 to
$499,999
$500,000 to
$999,999
$1,000,000
to
$2,999,999
$3,000,000
or more
number of employees
Number of employees on agricultural operations by receipts class, Canada, 2015
Year-round employees Temporary or seasonal employees
Source: Census of Agriculture.
16
Farmers are getting older
Source: Census of Agriculture, Census of Population
general population
agriculture operators
Less than 35 years, 30%
35 to 54 years, 33%
55 years and older, 37%
Less than 35 years, 9%
35 to 54 years, 36%
55 years and older, 55%
17
On large farms, older farmers are as likely to
use technology
Source: Census of Agriculture.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
$1 to lessthan
$10,000
$10,000 to$24,999
$25,000 to$49,999
$50,000 to$99,999
$100,000 to$249,999
$250,000 to$499,999
$500,000 to$999,999
$1,000,000and over
percent
Percentage of farm operators reporting the use of technology by age category of farm operator and receipts class of operation, 2016
Under 35 years 35 to 54 years 55 years and older
18
Canadian agriculture
Innovation in an evolving
industry
19
Canadian farms are innovating
product process organization marketing
20
Technology allows farmers to manage larger
operations
Source: Census of Agriculture.
Proportion of agricultural operations reporting technology by receipts class
42.7
50.756.4
63.8
73.3
85.4
92.995.9
Less than
$10,000
$10,000 to
$24,999
$25,000 to
$49,999
$50,000 to
$99,999
$100,000
to
$249,999
$250,000
to
$499,999
$500,000
to
$999,999
$1,000,000
and over
percentage of agriculture operations reporting
Crop farms grow with technology
21
Proportion of agricultural operations
reporting selected
technology by cropland
acreage, 2015
Source: Census of Agriculture.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1 to 500 501 to 1,000 1,001 to 5,000 5,001 to 10,000 10,000 and
over
percent
cropland (in acres)
Automated steering GPS technology GIS mapping
New crop varieties expand growing area
22
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016
acres (millions)
Total soybean area seeded by province, 1981 to 2016
All other provinces Manitoba Ontario Quebec
Sources: CANSIM table 004-0003 and 004-0213.
23
Industry consolidation drives efficiency gains
0
50
100
150
200
250
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
number of operations
(thousands)number of head
(millions)Total number of pigs and agricultural operations reporting, Canada, 1961 to 2016
Total pigs Number of operations reporting
Sources: CANSIM tables 004-0004 and 004-0223.
Innovation: Producing more with less
24
Source: CANSIM 002-0068.
1981
Number of dairy cows: 1.8 million
Milk production: 7.3 million kilolitres
2016
Number of dairy cows: 939,071
Milk production: 8.4 million kilolitres
Automation increases size of production
25
Source: Census of Agriculture
Proportion of greenhouse, nursery and floriculture type operations using greenhouse automation by square feet under glass, Canada, 2016
Source: Census of Agriculture.
13.3
28.134.1
47.1
64.7
85.8
1 to 5,000 5,001 to
10,000
10,001 to
25,000
25,001 to
50,000
50,001 to
100,000
100,001
and over
percent
square feet
Small farms innovate
26
25.2
16.0
11.910.7
9.1
7.05.7 5.6
Less than$10,000
$10,000 to$24,999
$25,000 to$49,999
$50,000 to$99,999
$100,000 to$249,999
$250,000 to$499,999
$500,000 to$999,999
$1,000,000or more
percentPercentage of agricultural operations reporting direct marketing
by sales class, Canada, 2015
Source: Census of Agriculture.
Renewable energy reduces costs
27
Source: Census of Agriculture
Proportion of operations with a renewable energy producing system on their operation by farm type, Canada, 2016
Hog and pig8.2%
Poultry and egg8.1%
Greenhouse5.6%
Vegetable and melon7.1%
Beef6.6%
28
July 31, 2017 compared
to normal (1987-2016)
Innovative ways to produce data
29
CropJuly Survey
(bu/ac)Yield Model1
(bu/ac) Difference (%)
Barley 63.2 64.0 1.3
Canola 35.2 38.1 8.2
Corn for grain 153.4 160.9 4.9
Flaxseed 19.6 19.4 -1.0
Mixed grains 58.5 58.4 -0.2
Oats 90.0 93.2 3.6
Peas, dry 34.4 35.0 1.7
Rye, fall 50.8 51.9 2.2
Soybeans 39.3 42.2 7.4
Wheat, durum 28.1 31.0 10.3
Wheat, spring 44.4 47.2 6.3
Wheat, winter 73.9 73.9 0.0
Yield model results
1 CANSIM Table 001-0075.
Partnership:
Statistics Canada
Agriculture and Agri-Food
Canada
Three data sets:
1. Satellite data
2. Agro-climatic data
3. Historical yield
estimates
Collecting data without contacting farmers
29
30
• High accuracy
• 70-98% coverage,
varying by crop type
and province
• Shared with
Statistics Canada
since 2015
2016 – Distribution of insured canola
in Prairie Provinces
Innovative ways to use alternative data
31
Looking forward:
Challenges and
opportunities
Innovation will continue to shape the agriculture
industry
32
33
The future of Canadian agriculture
Demographics
Land
values
Research and
developmentEnvironment
Labour
Transportation
34
Background
satellite image
2006
Background
satellite image
2011
Background
satellite image
2017
The future of Canadian agriculture
35
The future of Canadian agriculture
Global markets
Trade
agreements
Technology
Regulation
and policies
Prices
36
Agriculture data at Statistics
Canada
Agriculture
surveys
Census of
Agriculture
Satellite dataAdministrative
data
37
Greenhouse identification and area estimates
using satellite data
Greenhouse area (million square feet)
Year From satellite CEAG1
2011 64.3 65.92014 84.62015 96.62016 83.7
Comparison of greenhouse area between satellite and the Census of Agriculture for Leamington/Kingsville area
Identifying
greenhouses
Estimating area
1 CANSIM Table 004-0217.
38
Nano-satellites
Drones
Precisionagriculture data
Crowdsourcing
Future opportunities for innovation at
Statistics Canada
Thank you!
Please visit www.statcan.gc.ca for more
information
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